SR-30 turbojet engine real-time sensor health monitoring using neural networks,and Bayesian belief networks

This paper describes the use of artificial intelligence-based techniques for detecting and isolating sensor failures in a turbojet engine. Specifically, three artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are employed: artificial neural networks (NNs), statistical expectations, and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). These techniques are combined into an overall system that is capable of distinguishing between sensor failure and engine failure—a critical capability in the operation of turbojet engines. The turbojet engine used in this study is an SR-30 developed by Turbine Technologies. Initially, NNs were designed and trained to recognize sensor failure in the engine. The increased random noise output from failing sensors was used as the key indicator. Next, a Bayesian statistical method was used to recognize sensor failure based on the bias error occurring in the sensors. Finally, a BBN was developed to interpret the results of the NN and statistical evaluations. The BBN determines whether single or multiple sensor failures signify engine failure, or whether sensor failures represent separate, unrelated incidences. The BBN algorithm is also used to distinguish between bias and noise errors on sensors used to monitor turbojet performance. The overall system is demonstrated to work equally well during start-up and main-stage operation of the engine. Results show that the method can efficiently detect and isolate single or multiple sensor failures within this dynamic environment.     

Access point selection in heterogeneous wireless networks using belief propagation

The next generation wireless network will be composed by various heterogenous wireless access networks,such as cellular network,worldwide interoperability for microwave access(WiMAX),wireless local area network(WLAN),etc.Different access networks cooperatively provide high-bandwidth connectivity with bandwidth guarantees.This paper proposes a utility-based access point selection scheme,which selects an accessible point for each user,such that the bandwidth requirement of each user is satisfied,and also the defined utility function is maximized.Due to the NP-complete nature of the problem,the existing proposals apply the greedy method to find a solution.We find that belief propagation is an efficient tool to solve this problem,and thus,we derive the same optimization objective in a new way,and then draw a factor graph representation which describes our combinatorial optimization problem.Afterwards,we develop the belief propagation algorithm,and show that our algorithm converges.Finally,we conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the convergency and accuracy of the belief propagation in load balancing problem.     

连续航班延误与波及的贝叶斯网络分析

针对空运系统日益严重的航班延误,尝试将贝叶斯方法应用于航班数据分析,重点考虑同一飞机飞行连续航班的情况。借助Netica软件包,建立贝叶斯网络模型。通过贝叶斯网络推理进行连续航班延误波及分析,并用实际航班数据进行测试。结果表明,概率统计意义下,模型能够清晰反映连续航班延误原因分布、过站时间差分布和按时间段的延误波及情况。     

Fuzzy functional dependencies and Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks have become a popular technique for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information.The fuzzy functional dependency is an important kind of data dependencies in relational databases with fuzzy values,The purpose of this paper is to set up a connection between these data dependencies and Bayesian networks.The connection is done through a set of methods that enable pepople to obtain the most information of independent conditions from fuzzy functional dependencies.     

一种用于结构化文档检索的贝叶斯网络

分析结构化文档的表示方法及检索特点,对一种用于结构化文档检索的贝叶斯网络进行研究。讨论该贝叶斯网络的构造方法、概率估计及推理过程。用网络节点表示文档索引术语和结构单元,用弧表示术语和结构单元的隶属关系,根据TF-IDF方法估计各节点的先验概率,当给定一个查询时,通过计算每个结构单元的条件概率得到该结构单元的相关值。实例验证了该贝叶斯网络的有效性。     

Prognostic performance of two expert systems based on Bayesian belief networks

A decision support system for the prognosis at 24 h of head-injured patients of the intensive care unit (ICU), based on Bayesian belief networks, is constructed by model selection methods applied to a database (637 cases) of seven clinical and laboratory variables. Its performance is compared to other systems, including a simpler belief network that assumes conditional independence among the findings, and a human expert. Results indicate that its performance is not significantly different than that of the neurosurgeon expert and better than the performance of the independence model. Thus, the prognostic judgment of non-neurosurgeon ICU clinicians can be aided by the use of this system.     

基于模糊动态贝叶斯网络的辐射源威胁估计

针对复杂电磁环境下观测数据的不确定性,建立辐射源威胁评估的离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络模型。对连续观测值通过模糊分类函数进行模糊分类,获得连续观测值属于各个模糊集合的隶属度,结果作为离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络的输入。对动态贝叶斯网络的推理算法进行了改进,使其能处理具有多个状态的观测值。仿真结果表明,依据离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络所建立的辐射源威胁评估模型,能够准确跟踪战场态势的变化,及时发现态势的转换边界,而且在观测值出现大量错误时,仍然可以给出正确的评估结果。     

Method of probabilistic inference from learning data in Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks (BN) are a powerful tool for various data-mining systems. The available methods of probabilistic inference from learning data have shortcomings such as high computation complexity and cumulative error. This is due to a partial loss of information in transition from empiric information to conditional probability tables. The paper presents a new simple and exact algorithm for probabilistic inference in BN from learning data. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 3, pp. 93–99, May–June 2007.     

Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a larger DBN. The application of synthetic data fabrication of maritime vessel behaviour is considered. Behaviour of various vessels in a maritime piracy situation is simulated. A means to integrate information from context based external factors that influence behaviour is provided. Simulated observations of the vessels kinematic states are generated. The generated data may be used for the purpose of developing and evaluating counter-piracy methods and algorithms. A novel methodology for evaluating and optimising behavioural models such as the proposed model is presented. The log-likelihood, cross entropy, Bayes factor and the Bhattacharyya distance measures are applied for evaluation. The results demonstrate that the generative model is able to model both spatial and temporal datasets.     

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的软件过时淘汰影响研究

为对软件的过时淘汰进行科学决策,依据软件的固有特性,提出软件过时淘汰的理念并给出相关定义;分析软件过时淘汰机理,提出软件过时淘汰的主要影响属性,依据模糊贝叶斯网络和抽样分布的思想对主要影响属性进行模糊化处理,消除主观因素的影响并获得所有属性变量之间的条件互信息和最大权重有向树;推理模糊先验概率估计和条件概率估计,归纳参数学习方法。通过案例验证了模型的建立与推理方法,其结果表明该模型具有可信性和有效性。     

A review of Bayesian belief networks in ecosystem service modelling

A wide range of quantitative and qualitative modelling research on ecosystem services (ESS) has recently been conducted. The available models range between elementary, indicator-based models and complex process-based systems. A semi-quantitative modelling approach that has recently gained importance in ecological modelling is Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Due to their high transparency, the possibility to combine empirical data with expert knowledge and their explicit treatment of uncertainties, BBNs can make a considerable contribution to the ESS modelling research. However, the number of applications of BBNs in ESS modelling is still limited. This review discusses a number of BBN-based ESS models developed in the last decade. A SWOT analysis highlights the advantages and disadvantages of BBNs in ESS modelling and pinpoints remaining challenges for future research. The existing BBN models are suited to describe, analyse, predict and value ESS. Nevertheless, some weaknesses have to be considered, including poor flexibility of frequently applied software packages, difficulties in eliciting expert knowledge and the inability to model feedback loops.     

无线多跳通信网络中基于贝叶斯概率模型的消息转发机制研究

无线多跳通信网络依赖多节点中继实现信息传输,因不需要依赖预先架设的基础设施而成为军用及民用领域等特殊应用场景下的重要通信方式。为了能在复杂及恶劣环境下组网,信源节点往往采用全网广播路由请求分组RREQ的泛洪方法,以提高多跳转发路径构建成功率。然而,全网泛洪广播产生消息的冗余转发和重叠效应引起节点能耗的上升和信道利用率的下降,导致分组碰撞与网络拥塞概率的上升,严重时可能造成网络瘫痪而失去效用。本文基于贝叶斯概率论设计了无线多跳通信网络的消息转发模型,通过计算节点密度和后验概率在保证网络连通性的条件下减少不必要的消息转发。基于NS2的仿真结果表明,本文所提出的基于贝叶斯概率模型的消息转发机制能够有效减小广播分组的重播次数。相比于同类算法,在基本保证网络吞吐量的前提下,可以有效降低能量消耗、路由开销,并提高分组成功交付率,从而为未来广域大规模动态多跳网络部署提供技术支撑。     

Linear interpolation in a fuzzy information space

An approach to solving a linear interpolation problem in a fuzzy information space is proposed. Two different schemes of interpolation are outlined: a heuristic one, based on the geometrical interpretation of operations, and an optimization one, based on the expansion principle. The results obtained allow performing fuzzy linear prediction. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 2, pp. 55–68, March–April 2006.     

社交网络中考虑不同传播概率上的谣言传播模型

现有的谣言传播模型无法描述不同节点对谣言传播概率的影响,从而造成了谣言传播模型无法真实地描述现实社交网络中的谣言传播,进而影响了对网络中谣言传播的控制。针对这一问题,在SIR传播模型的基础上考虑了谣言在不同节点之间的传播概率,并且分析了不同节点对传播概率的影响情况,从而建立了社交网络中考虑网络节点自身影响的谣言传播模型。最后,通过将改进的谣言传播模型与常用的SIR模型进行对比,实验结果显示,提出的改进模型可以较快地控制网络中谣言的传播。     

动态贝叶斯网络在水文预报中的应用

贝叶斯网络是目前人工智能中不确定知识与推理中最有效的理论模型之一。提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络模型理论的水文预报方法。在综合考虑降雨径流成因的基础上,利用领域专家知识构建网络模型,在已有降雨、流量数据的基础上通过计算变量间的条件概率来计算流量发生的可能性。最后,通过渭河流域咸阳至临潼段历时数据进行仿真实验,对仿真结果和该模型进行了分析。     

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的堆垛机系统可靠性分析

为解决因缺乏实际数据而无法准确估计堆垛机系统和部件的失效概率问题,提出了基于模糊集理论和主观贝叶斯方法的模糊贝叶斯网络诊断策略.该方法首先将故障树转换成相应的贝叶斯网络,然后运用模糊集理论,将专家给出的关于基本事件失效概率的主观语言评判值转换成模糊数,并通过去模糊化处理得到精确解.针对因事件的多态性所引起的条件概率不确定问题,该方法采用主观贝叶斯方法进行估计.通过堆垛机通信模块的可靠性分析实例,验证了该方法是有效的,表明其能够克服在系统建模时的参数不确定问题.     

Learning with privileged information using Bayesian networks

For many supervised learning applications, additional information, besides the labels, is often available during training, but not available during testing. Such additional information, referred to the privileged information, can be exploited during training to construct a better classifier. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian network (BN) approach for learning with privileged information. We propose to incorporate the privileged information through a three-node BN. We further mathematically evaluate different topologies of the three-node BN and identify those structures, through which the privileged information can benefit the classification. Experimental results on handwritten digit recognition, spontaneous versus posed expression recognition, and gender recognition demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.     

Bayes网络最优近似下边缘分布的不变性

删除Bayes网络中的弧以减小网络结构的复杂性,从而降低概率推理算法的复杂度是一种对Bayes网络进行近似的方法．该文讨论了在删除Bayes网络中的一条弧之后得到的最优近似概率分布和原概率分布之间的关系,证明了对满足一定条件的结点子集而言,其边缘概率分布在近似以后具有不变性．     

基于置信传播的复杂网络社团发现算法

经典的置信传播（BP）算法能够通过有限次数的迭代,推断出所有节点的边缘概率分布和最大似然概率。针对该算法在迭代过程中产生的影响精度和收敛速度的强烈震荡,找出了造成震荡的三个主要因素：强势能、紧密的环路和矛盾的方向,并有针对性地改进了该算法的核心更新规则;同时又进一步提出了异步消息传递方式,克服传统置信传播算法采用的同步消息传播方式的收敛慢、效率低等缺点。利用随机块模型拟合网络的生成过程,利用经典的期望最大化算法对模型进行求解,分别利用改进前后的置信传播算法推断隐变量的后验概率。在五个真实网络上的实验表明,两个改进均使得精度和速度不同程度地提高。