Economic impact of potential new industries in a four-state area

This note applies an input-output multiplier technique developed by Burford and Katz to analyzing the impact of potential high technology industries in a rural, four-state, thirteen county Midwestern region. By using the 1972 national input-output table coefficients and the Burford-Katz multiplier estimation formula, the estimated output impacts for fifty-one individual industries were calculated. The results indicate that within the four-state region, conventional industries would produce greater economic impacts than designated high-tech ones. This analysis could be performed rather easily for any other region in the U.S.     

Effect of Loading Character on Analysis of Pile and Pile-Foundation Settlements

A mathematical model that makes it possible to model the behavior of pile/soil and pile-foundation/soil systems is presented. The model takes into account the viscoelastoplastic properties of the soil. Numerical analysis with use of this model has enabled us to examine characteristic features of the settlements of single piles and pile groups in soils possessing rheological properties. Settlement behavior over time is analyzed for various alternate schemes employed to increase the load on the foundation. Numerical and experimental results are compared.     

Dynamic forecasting of travel demand,residential location and land development

TheChicago Area Transportation/Land-Use Analysis System (CATLAS) is a large scale urban simulation model which synthesizes location rent analysis from urban economics with travel demand analysis from transportation planning. This paper describes the theoretical formulation, empirical estimation and policy application of CATLAS to the evaluation of CBD-oriented rapid transit projects in Chicago.     

Regional labor force participation and the discouraged worker hypothesis: Some empirical evidence

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the economic determination of the regional labor supply. In explaining the regional level of labor force participation two models are compared: the unemployment model based on the discouraged worker hypothesis and the neoclassical model of labor force participation. It is shown that a migration model complements the neoclassical model and provides an alternative interpretation of the discouraged worker hypothesis, this reinterpretation provides an explanation for the failure of the unemployment model at the regional level when it is quite successful at the national level.     

Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser nach der EU-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie im Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Kurzfassung Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie regelt den Schutz von Grund- und Oberflächengewässern und fordert eine nachhaltige Wassernutzung. Sie legt einen Zeitplan fest, um bis zum Jahr 2015 für alle Gewässer einen guten Zustand zu erreichen. Der erste Schritt ist eine Bestandsaufnahme der Gewässer. Für das Grundwasser besteht diese aus einer erstmaligen Beschreibung, einer weitergehenden Beschreibung und der Prüfung der Auswirkungen menschlicher Tätigkeit auf das Grundwasser. Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie wird unabhängig von administrativen Grenzen innerhalb von hydrologischen Einzugsgebieten umgesetzt. Im deutschen Teil des Flusseinzugsgebietes der Elbe wurden 5 Koordinierungsräume gegründet. Der Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) wird vorgestellt. Beispielhaft für die angewandten Methoden wird die Beurteilung diffuser Stoffeinträge in das Grundwasser bei der erstmaligen Beschreibung erläutert. Die Ergebnisse der Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser im Koordinierungsraum MES werden präsentiert. Von 54 Grundwasserkörpern ist für 25 Körper aufgrund der Belastungen durch Punktquellen und diffuse Quellen, wegen des mengenmäßigen Zustands oder sonstiger anthropogener Einwirkungen die Zielerreichung nach der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie unklar/unwahrscheinlich.

---

Status review groundwater for the Water Framework Directive in the coordination zone Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Abstract The Water Framework Directive (WFD) governs the protection of groundwater and surface water and promotes sustainable water use. It sets up a timetable to ensure that a good status of all waters will be achieved by 2015. The first step is a status review of the waters. For groundwater, this procedure is divided into an initial characterisation, a further characterisation and a review of the impacts of human activity on groundwater. The WFD is to be implemented independently of administrative boundaries within hydrological river basins. In the German part of the Elbe river basin district five coordination zones have been established. The Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) coordination zone is introduced. As an example for the applied methods, the assessment of the pressures of groundwater by diffuse sources (initial characterisation) will be explained. Then the outcome of the status review groundwater in the coordination zone MES will be presented: From the 54 individual bodies of groundwater 25 bodies will probably not achieve the environmental objectives of the WFD because of the pressures point sources, diffuse sources, quantitative status or other anthropogenic impacts.

     

The effect of aggregation on the output multipliers in input-output models

This paper compares the output multipliers of the 1967 National input output model (367 industries) with the multipliers of the aggregated version (81 industries). The results show that, generally, the set of industries in the full model that were aggregated together for the reduced model, display a wide range of output multiplier values. Therefore, the output multiplier of an aggregated industry may not be truly representative of any of the industries that were joined together. Finally we show how information for a particular firm or disaggregated industry can be incorporated in an aggregated input-output model to obtain a close estimate of the actual output multiplier for that firm or industry.     

Smoke Control in Hospitals

Full scale fire tests have been carried out in order to study the influence of different ventilating principles on the time point of fire detection and the smoke filling of a four-bed room. Using conventional mechanical ventilating systems as smoke exhaust systems the time difference left for evacuation of the fire room can be positively influenced. With the conventional ventilating system operating there is a significant difference between time points of detection of the ionization and optical smoke detectors, for both flaming and smoldering fire. Using the low momentum displacement ventilation this difference is reduced, resulting in possibilities for the ionization smoke detector to be optimized for both flaming and smoldering fires. Reference: Øystein Meland and Eimund Skåret, Smoke Control in Hospitals,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 1, February 1986, p. 33.     

Experimental infrared-radiometric investigations of stress variations on a borehole face in a model of the soil mass

A procedure for, and results of experimental investigations performed to substantiate the effectiveness of the method of infrared (IR) radiation in diagnosing changes in the stress state of soils over time are presented. The construction of a large-scale bench is described for the alternating loading of a relatively large (of the order of 0.35 m³) volume of soil. Variations in the stress state over time in the near-face zone of a borehole, which is arranged in a model of the soil mass, are recorded using synchronous recordings of signals from an IR radiometer and load-cell strain gages. The elastic nature of stress variations on the face of the borehole in an unsaturated sandy soil is revealed during alternating-sign stress variations at infinity. It is indicated that data derived from noncontact IR measurements will make it possible to record accurately moments of jumpwise stress variations in the soil mass, and evaluate their intensity.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 6, pp. 8–11, November–December, 2004.     

Prefailure of Rock Soils under Dynamic Loading

The effect of loading and unloading regimes on the threshold of the appearance and number of cracks, which precede their avalanche propagation that accompanies complete failure of the soil, is established. It is demonstrated that the appearance of pioneer cracks contributes to an increase in ultimate deformations of the soil, corresponding to its failure and energy consumption of the deformation process.     

Fire drainage system

Present firesafety measures were conceived to deal with hypothetical fires spreading by destruction of successive compartment boundaries. A new firesafety system, referred to as the fire drainage system, is designed to cope with real-world fires spreading mainly by convection. It confines fire and smoke to the room of origin and to a small corridor element adjacent to the room. The system can be designed to operate without the use of water and electric energy. The fundamentals of its design are described and some experimental information is presented. Reference: T. Z. Harmathy and I. Oleszkiewicz, Fire Drainage System,Fire Technology, Vol. 23, No. 1, February 1987, p. 26.This paper is a contribution from the Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council of Canada.     

The impact of Alaskan oil development on the Washington-Alaska trade

Washington State serves as a marketing and transportation center for Alaska trade. This study estimates, via a Location Quotient Input-Output model for Alaska, the impact Alaskan oil development will have on various economic sectors in both states. A From-To table and the existing Washington Input-Output table quantified the impacts on Washington.The Alaska oil development impact will result in a tripling of the Alaskan economy's output from 1972 to 1980. The largest impact in Alaska will be on the Service, Finance, Agriculture, Trade, and State and Local Government sectors. The impact on Washington will be felt in sectors of Transportation, Finance, Trade, and Agriculture resulting in an aggregate increase in the Washington economy of 10.6 percent if 50 percent of Alaska's import requirements are provided by Washington, and 5.3 percent if the import movement is 25 percent.Work was done under Regional project 0191, An Economic Analysis of present and potencial Trade Between Alaska Washington.     

The concept of local development: A stages model of endogenous regional growth

The concept of local development is defined as a particular form of regional development, one in which endogenous factors occupy a central position. A stages model of local development is proposed: 1) the emergence of local entrepreneurship; 2) the take off of local enterprises; 3) the expansion of these enterprises beyond the local region; and 4) the achievement of a regional economic structure that is based upon local initiatives and locally created comparative advantages. The theoretical and empirical foundations of this model are examined, with particular emphasis upon the roles of the entrepreneur and of human capital in the process of economic growth, and upon the spatial effects of the expansion of the firm.This paper was originally written and presented in French under the title of Le concept de développement local en sciences régionales: voies de réflexion et de recherche.     

Activity analysis in wildland management

Conclusion The complexity of the production process and the importance of nonmarket or intangible inputs and outputs pose special problems in the allocation of wildlands resources. By restricting the production possibilities to a finite number of management alternatives, the land manager can use activity analysis to develop operational plans. The systematic use of constraints within the frame-work of activity analysis can bring a measure of analysis to the allocation of nonmarket resources. Ultimately, the manager must rely upon his intuition in selecting a particular plan-whether he selects one of the efficient bundles of outputs maximizing net revenues, or he assigns values to outputs and maximizes the social value of his activities. In either case, by formalizing the planning process, the manager can assess policy alternatives systematically and can widen his grasp of the potential of his resources.     

A continuous Leontief dynamic input-output model

This paper extends the Leontief dynamic input-output model by incorporating continuous lags, capacity constraints, excess capacity and limits on disinvestment in each sector. These extensions result in phase changes, where sectors discretely change from one set of conditions to another. The resulting system of equations is solved by numerical methods and applied to the U.S. economy. Projections for the 1952 to 1962 period are compared with actual levels.     

The artificial intelligence of urban dynamics: Neural network modeling of urban structure

A neural network, parallel distributed processing model of learning is adapted to represent the self-organizing urban system. The model is trained on a number of cases representing specific functional states of the system, and as a result learns, by a process of structural evolution, to recognize the general problem defined implicitly by the set of cases, and to solve it. The learning algorithm approach is based on an explicit distinction between the functional and structural organization of the system; questions such as the structural effects of a functional change are thus addressed directly. Specific results show that very simple models can learn to create transportation infrastructure appropriate for a variety of flow requirements, and then distribute flows in a reasonable manner over the network.     

Aquatische Kolloide I: Eine Übersichtsarbeit zur Definition, zu Systemen und zur Relevanz

Kurzfassung Kolloide sind Bestandteile aller aquatischen Systeme. Sie umfassen Feststoffe, deren Größe in zumindest einer Dimension zwischen 1 und 1.000 nm liegt. Sie können anorganischer (z. B. Tonteilchen, Karbonate oder Silikate) oder organischer (z. B. Ruß oder höhermolekulare organische Verbindungen wie Huminstoffe) Natur sein. Auch Bakterien, Viren, Sporen und Algen in diesem Größenbereich können zu den Kolloiden gerechnet werden (häufig als Bio-Kolloide bezeichnet). Kolloide können den Transport von (Schad-)stoffen im Untergrund und in Oberflächengewässern beeinflussen, insbesondere von Spurenelementen und hydrophoben organischen Verbindungen, oder zu unerwünschten Effekten wie Porenraumreduktion (Clogging) führen. Für die Hygiene des Trinkwassers ist das Verhalten von Bakterien, Viren und Sporen (den Bio-Kolloiden) von besonderer Bedeutung. Bisher ist das Verhalten von Kolloiden nur unzureichend verstanden. Dieser Artikel soll einen Beitrag zu dem Verständnis des physikalischen Verhaltens der Kolloide, deren Vorkommen in der aquatischen Umwelt sowie Relevanz in Form einer Übersichtsarbeit leisten.

---

Aquatic Colloids: Definition and Relevance—a Review

Abstract Colloids are abundant in all natural aquatic environments. The size of colloids ranges between 1 and 1,000 nm, at least in one dimension. They can consist of inorganic material (e. g. clay, carbonates, silicates), organic material (e. g. soot or high-molecular-mass organic carbon), and bio-colloids (e. g. bacteria, viruses, spores, algae). Colloids may influence the transport and fate of contaminants, especially trace elements and hydrophobic organic substances. They may also cause a pore space reduction. In particular, drinking water quality can be adversely affected by the transport and relocation of bio-colloids; however, the behaviour of colloids is not fully understood. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the physical properties of colloids, their occurrence in natural aquatic systems, and their relevance.

     

Experimental Investigations of Stiffeners for Foundations of Offshore Gravity Platforms

Results are presented for laboratory tests of a large-scale model of a gravity platform with additional deep elements in the form of flat ribs-skirts, and also experiments on the impression of segments of a plane and wedge-shape stiffener in the ground.     

Feasibility of Face Surcharging during Deep Settlement-Free Tunneling in Dense Urban Settings

A procedure is proposed for the computational modeling of the driving of a deep tunnel by a tunnel-boring machine (TBM) with an active surcharge on the face, which is realized in the GEO-MIGG program. Basic factors affecting the stress-strain state (SSS) of the soil bed-TBM- buildings and structures of the urban setting system are demonstrated in a trial example. The feasibility of using the proposed procedure is confirmed by comparing results of computational modeling of a practical example of tunneling for the third transportation beltway around Moscow in the area of Lefortovo using a TBM manufactured by the German firm Herrenknecht with data derived from field observations.     

Ways to increase the economical effectiveness of foundations for agricultural buildings with three-hinged bents

Conclusions 1. The failure of a sandy foundation bed under a rigid embedded reinforced-concrete foundation (h/b0.5) with a flat, rough lower surface is three-dimensional in nature when the loads are inclined at =20–40° to the vertical.2. Plane shear is not observed when the load is inclined at an angle = and the eccentricity e0 ( is the angle of the soil's internal friction as determined on a shear apparatus in accordance with GOST 12248–66).3. The settlements and lateral displacements of an embedded foundation (h/b>0.5) in the limiting state are 2–3 times larger than those of the nonembedded foundation; lateral displacements exceed the limiting values established for farm buildings [2], or approach them.4. For angles =20–40°, eccentricity of the inclined load in the direction opposite to the horizontal component, but not less than r_C (r_C is the core radius of the section) effects an increase in the ultimate load as compared to a central positioning of the resultant. Additional experiments and theoretical studies are required to investigate the role of positive and negative eccentricity on the bearing capacity of the foundation bed.5. For loads inclined at angles =35–40° and a relative foundation embedment 0.5h/b1, computation in accordance with SNiP II-15-74 yields considerably lower bearing capacity than computation from experimental data.6. The studies that we conducted are used to develop a more economical method of computing and designing foundations for farm buildings under an inclined loading, which is employed in practice [2].B. E. Vedeneev All-Union Scientific-Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering. Central Scientific-Research Institute of Experimental Design and Planning for Rural Construction. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 4, pp. 3–6, July–August, 1979.     

Demand models incorporating price differences across political boundaries

Whenever a consumer can acquire a good or service more conveniently by paying a per-unit premium, the number of units purchased in a particular transaction becomes important. Furthermore, the potential convenience associated with the consumption process is often independent of the number of units of the good being purchased. This implies that the price of convenience (POC) can be defined as the increment to total cost incurred by the decision to purchase at the premium price. The POC will influence a consumer's decision to participate in either the high-priced or the low-priced market.While the notion of a price of convenience is quite general, this paper focuses on an area where it may be particularly relevant. When political boundaries are present and create a differential in the real price of some good on each side of a border, the price of convenience will be an important determinant of the demand for commodities (near the border) in both jurisdictions. The POC model is examined here as an extension to a special case of the notion of market locational accessibility, where accessibility enters discretely, rather than as a continuous variable. Simple logit models are argued to be appropriate for empirical applications when only a binary side-of-border decision is being modeled. If this decision is embedded in a hierarchy of convenience choices, multinomial logit techniques are suggested.The authors wish to thank D. Classman, C. Hives, A. Redish, J. Wyatt, and I. Perkins.