基于马尔科夫链的车桥齿轮剩余寿命预测研究

为解决车桥齿轮剩余寿命随时间变化趋势难以预测的问题,提出一种基于马尔科夫链的齿轮剩余寿命预测模型。该方法首先从采集的原始振动信号中提取齿轮的1～3倍啮合频率边频能量作为退化指标,再求取退化指标的增量序列并用于寿命预测;然后通过聚类方法对增量序列进行状态划分,从而获得状态转移概率矩阵;从而建立基于马尔科夫链的剩余寿命预测模型。采用车桥耐久试验的全寿命数据验证模型的有效性,结果表明,提出的模型在车桥开始退化后的预测平均相对误差为9.5%,相比于传统的马尔科夫模型具有更高的预测精度。     

CHMM for tool condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction

To solve the problems of tool condition monitoring and prediction of remaining useful life, a method based on the Continuous Hidden Markov Model (CHMM) is presented. With milling as the research object, cutting force is taken as the monitoring signal, analyzed by wavelet packet theory to reduce noise and extract the energy feature of the signal as a basis for diagnosis. Then, CHMM is used to diagnose tool wear state. Finally, a Gaussian regression model is proposed to predict the milling tool’s remaining useful life after the test sample data are verified to be consistent with the Gaussian distribution based on a reliable identification of the milling tool wear state. The probability models of tool remaining useful life prediction could be established for tools with different initial states. For example, when an unknown state of milling force signal is delivered to the milling tool online diagnostic system, the state and the existing time of this state could be predicted by the established prediction model, and then, the average remaining useful life from the present state to the tool failure state could be obtained by analyzing the transfer time between each state in the CHMM. Compared to the traditional probabilistic model, which requires a large amount of test samples, the experimental cost is effectively reduced by applying the proposed method. The results from the experiment indicate that CHMM for tool condition monitoring has high sensitivity, requires less training samples and time, and produces results quickly. The method using the Gaussian process to accurately predict remaining life has ample potential for application to real situations.     

电子产品动态损伤最优估计与寿命预测

针对电子产品寿命预测中存在的不确定性因素影响,提出一种基于粒子滤波的电子产品动态损伤最优估计和寿命预测方法.首先建立了电子产品动态损伤HMM模型;分析了电子产品动态损伤和寿命预测中的不确定性因素;通过贝叶斯滤波模型,将寿命预测的不确定性问题转化为最优估计问题;利用粒子滤波算法求解出电子产品动态损伤的最优估计值,从而进行寿命预测;实验证明,该方法可有效消除系统和测量因素的干扰,明显提高电子产品剩余寿命预测的精度.     

数字孪生驱动的航空发动机涡轮盘剩余寿命预测

为解决航空发动机涡轮盘剩余寿命在线预测难题,提出一种数字孪生驱动的涡轮盘剩余寿命预测方法。在建立数字孪生模型的过程中,首先,分析涡轮盘疲劳裂纹损伤机理,构建性能退化指标,建立涡轮盘性能退化过程的共性表征模型;其次,分析多种不确定性因素,采用状态空间模型建立涡轮盘性能退化过程的个性表征模型;然后,通过动态贝叶斯网络描述状态空间模型随时间的演化规律,建立涡轮盘性能退化过程的动态演化模型;最后,采用粒子滤波算法实现涡轮盘退化状态追踪和剩余寿命预测,从而完成涡轮盘性能退化数字孪生模型的建立。融合涡轮盘实时传感数据,通过贝叶斯推理实现对该数字孪生模型的动态更新。通过某型涡轮盘试验数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明该数字孪生模型能够较好地解决涡轮盘剩余寿命在线预测问题。     

地铁车辆电动塞拉门的剩余寿命预测

针对地铁车辆客室电动塞拉门传动装置润滑不良的问题,提出了基于自组织映射（SOM）神经网络、隐马尔可夫链（HMC）模型和蒙特卡罗（MC）仿真的剩余使用寿命预测方法。该方法首先对采集到的电机电流信号进行特征提取;然后利用SOM对提取出的多维特征数据进行融合与编码,将所得结果作为HMC的输入向量,训练得到全部寿命下劣化状态转移矩阵;最后利用MC方法实现对其劣化过程的剩余使用寿命预测。故障模拟实验结果表明,该方法可以在考虑润滑不良故障模式下,有效预测得到电动塞拉门丝杆的剩余使用寿命。     

红外热像技术在线评估高温炉管剩余寿命

在红外热像技术检测、剩余寿命预测理论和自行研制的炉管在线剩余寿命评估系统的基础上,通过对常压加热炉管表面温度场的连续红外热像检测,快速、准确地在线测量了炉管工作温度。结合炉管运行史数据,利用拉森-米勒和腐蚀损伤的剩余寿命估算模型,对加热炉炉管的工作状态进行了在线评估和诊断,提供了判断炉管检修与更换的科学依据,具有广泛的工程实用性。     

直升机主减半主动反共振隔振技术研究

针对滚动轴承剩余寿命预测中的特征评估及模型优化问题,提出了面向轴承寿命的特征评估与模型优化的方法。该方法在轴承特征进行单调性与敏感性评估的基础上,对轴承运行状态跟踪能力进行量化评估,进而筛选出表征轴承性能退化的多维特征集。为了减少多维特征集之间相关冗余信息对寿命预测的影响,采用相似近邻传播（affinity propagation ,简称AP）聚类方法对多维特征集进行聚类和筛选。为了统一描述AP聚类后的特征对轴承退化状态的表征信息,采用自组织神经网络（self-organizing feature map ,简称SOM）构建轴承健康指数。最后,利用自适应混沌粒子群算法（adaptive chaos particle swarm optimization, 简称ACPSO）优化双指数模型预测轴承剩余寿命。试验表明,该方法可以准确描述轴承运行状态时期,并有效地预测了轴承的剩余寿命。     

A weighted hidden Markov model approach for continuous-state tool wear monitoring and tool life prediction

Tool wear is one of the important indicators to reflect the health status of a machining system. In order to obtain tool’s wear status, tool condition monitoring (TCM) utilizes advanced sensor techniques, hoping to find out the wear status through those sensor signals. In this paper, a novel weighted hidden Markov model (HMM)-based approach is proposed for tool wear monitoring and tool life prediction, using the signals provided by TCM techniques. To describe the dynamic nature of wear evolution, a weighted HMM is first developed, which takes wear rate as the hidden state and formulates multiple HMMs in a weighted manner to include sufficient historical information. Explicit formulas to estimate the model parameters are also provided. Then, a particular probabilistic approach using the weighted HMM is proposed to estimate tool wear and predict tool’s remaining useful life during tool operation. The proposed weighted HMM-based approach is tested on a real dataset of a high-speed CNC milling machine cutters. The experimental results show that this approach is effective in estimating tool wear and predicting tool life, and it outperforms the conventional HMM approach.     

考虑不完美维修的随机退化设备剩余寿命自适应预测方法

在现有考虑不完美维修的随机退化设备剩余寿命预测研究中,通常仅考虑维修活动对退化状态或退化速率的单一影响,仅有考虑二者双重影响的研究,忽略了退化设备的个体差异性。鉴于此,提出一种基于多阶段扩散过程的自适应剩余寿命预测方法,同时考虑不完美维修活动对设备退化状态和退化速率的影响,并利用随机游走模型描述退化速率随观测数据的更新过程以表征设备的个体差异性。基于历史退化数据,利用极大似然估计法得到退化模型参数的初值;基于状态观测数据,利用卡尔曼滤波算法和期望最大化算法自适应的更新模型参数。利用卷积算子和蒙特卡洛方法推导得到了首达时间意义下设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数。最后,通过仿真算例和陀螺仪的实例研究验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。     

A study on the prediction of machining accuracy

The machining accuracy prediction has been widely studied in many manufacturing processes to achieve efficient control for production process. In this paper, a dynamic analysis model is proposed to develop the prediction model of machining accuracy. The dynamic analysis model has the advantage of high predictable power of the GM(1,1) model while at the same time utilizing the prediction power of the Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. Furthermore, Taylor approximation method is employed to enhance the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated with a real case.     

基于多源信息融合的飞行器部件剩余寿命预测

针对飞行器关键部件的多源变量数据统计信息,提出基于多源信息融合的相似性剩余寿命预测方法。介绍了相似性剩余寿命预测方法的基本思想和模型;提出一种使用BP神经网络融合多变量统计数据的方法;引入余弦相似度方法,将服役部件和参考部件退化模型进行模式匹配,确定与服役部件具有相同退化模式的参考部件,进而提高基于相似性剩余寿命预测方法的预测精度。通过NASA航空发动机数据集和相同评价指标下的对比分析,验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于性能退化模型的万能式断路器操作附件实时剩余寿命预测

针对万能式断路器操作附件的个体差异性以及在实际使用过程中动作不频繁的特性,提出一种基于性能退化模型的万能式断路器操作附件实时机械剩余寿命(RUL)预测方法。不同于传统的RUL预测方法,该方法融合了操作附件的历史退化数据与实时更新的状态监测(CM)数据。首先,考虑到操作附件性能退化过程具有线性非单调的特点,建立基于Wiener过程的操作附件性能退化模型;其次,对操作附件的历史退化数据采用极大似然估计法和一维搜索法确定模型参数的先验分布;然后,运用贝叶斯方法并结合操作附件实时更新的CM信息对模型参数进行迭代更新;基于首达时间的概念建立了RUL预测模型,以实现对断路器操作附件实时RUL的预测。最后,通过操作附件的寿命数据对本文所提方法进行验证,结果表明本文方法不仅可实现操作附件的实时剩余机械寿命预测,同时相较于其他文献方法具有更高的预测精度。     

多传感器融合和 MHA-LSTM 的电机轴承剩余寿命预测

轴承作为电机的核心部件, 主要起到支撑引导轴、 减小设备摩擦、 连接不同设备等作用, 其剩余寿命预测对系统健康 管理起着十分重要的作用。 针对单一传感器信号通常难以全面描述系统的潜在退化机制, 论文提出一种基于多头注意力机制 和长短时记忆神经网络的电机轴承剩余寿命预测模型。 首先, 基于马氏距离确定轴承性能退化起始点, 将滚动轴承全寿命周 期分为正常阶段与退化阶段; 其次, 使用自编码器自动提取振动信号特征, 并将其与电机电流、 轴承温度融合, 构成多源信息 特征矩阵; 然后基于多头注意力机制和长短时记忆网络模型动态选择相关度较高的特征, 提高寿命预测的准确性。 最后, 采 用实验数据进行验证, 结果表明所提出的模型具有更高的准确性。     

基于Wiener过程的万能式断路器附件剩余寿命预测*

万能式断路器作为一个复杂的机械系统,其操作附件的剩余寿命预测对于维护断路器的可靠性至关重要。为准确掌握操作附件剩余寿命情况,提出了一种基于Wiener过程的万能式断路器操作附件剩余机械寿命预测方法。首先,通过对操作附件动作过程中线圈电流波形的分析选取了动作时间作为性能退化特征量;其次,考虑到断路器操作附件性能退化过程具有线性非单调的特点,采用Wiener过程建立了操作附件的性能退化模型,并利用极大似然估计法对退化模型参数进行估计;然后,基于首达时间的概念建立了剩余寿命预测模型,推导出剩余寿命概率密度函数解析式。最后对安装于万能式断路器上的分励脱扣器和释能电磁铁两种操作附件进行全寿命试验及其剩余寿命预测,预测结果验证了所提方法的有效性。     

基于VMD-NARX的MOSFET剩余使用寿命预测方法

金属氧化物半导体场效应晶体管(MOSFET)剩余使用寿命预测能够防止因器件长时间导通出现性能逐渐退化或失效,但传统预测模型易忽略MOSFET退化参数的非线性细节特征而导致预测精度较差。本文提出一种基于变分模态分解与带外源输入的非线性自回归神经网络的MOSFET剩余使用寿命预测方法。首先采用变分模态分解将退化参数序列分解为多组含有非线性变化信息的特征分量。然后分别利用贝叶斯正则和Levenberg-Marquardt算法对预测网络进行优化。最终集成多组预测分量值获得MOSFET剩余使用寿命预测结果。实验结果表明,本文所提方法的均方根误差小于0.003,平均绝对百分比误差小于5%,均优于对比方法,剩余使用寿命预测平均偏差小于5 min,验证了该方法的有效性.     

柴油发动机寿命实时预测系统的设计与实现

通过三通道传感器设计实现柴油发动机缸压力、机油压力和喷油压力数据的在线同步采集,并导入柴油发动机寿命预测数学模型,实现不解体的情况下动态测算柴油发动机的剩余寿命,判断发动机工作状态及何时需要进行发动机检修.实验表明在同一地区车辆行驶里程越大,预测提前量也越大;西藏地区的总体预测提前量大于广西地区的预测提前量.     

基于DAE-HTPF的新能源汽车电池剩余寿命预测

针对反映锂电池寿命的趋势性特征自学习与电池剩余寿命预测问题,提出了基于降噪自编码器（denoising auto-encoder,DAE）与混合趋势粒子滤波（hybrid trend particle filter,HTPF）的电池剩余寿命预测方法。利用电池使用前期的信号特征训练DAE,然后将使用中后期的电池信号特征输入DAE中,并提取重构误差。另外,利用HTPF方法对电池生命周期内的信号特征进行分析,建立自适应状态方程。分析结果表明,该方法能有效地对锂电池的性能退化趋势性特征进行自提取,从而有效地减少人为因素的干扰,同时相比于传统粒子滤波（particle filter,PF）,HTPF对电池剩余寿命预测精度更高。      

Prediction of coal feeding during sintering in a rotary kiln based on statistical learning in the phase space

In alumina rotary kiln production, adjusting the coal feeding rate is the main way to maintain sintering temperature stability during the sintering process, which plays a critical role in improving production quality and reducing energy consumption. In this paper, a novel integrated method (termed PSR-PCA-HMM) is proposed to predict the coal feeding state for optimal control by integrating principal component analysis (PCA) and the hidden Markov model (HMM) based on phase space reconstruction (PSR). First, the thermal signals in rotary kilns are shown to have obvious chaotic characteristics. Second, PSR is utilized to extract the features of the sintering process in a rotary kiln, and PCA is proposed to efficiently reduce the redundancy of the high-dimensional feature space reconstructed by the PSR. Then, considering the nonlinear dynamic characteristic of the sintering process, three HMM models are built to capture the nonlinear dynamic relationship between thermal variables and the corresponding coal feeding state. Finally, the posterior probabilities with respect to the three HMM models are estimated by using the forward algorithm, and the final prediction of coal feeding is determined by the maximized likelihood estimation. Based on field data, the application results indicate that the PSR-PCA-HMM method can significantly improve prediction performance and help realize stable closed-loop control for the sintering temperature.     

基于神经网络的球轴承剩余寿命预测

针对球轴承的剩余寿命预测问题,基于自组织映射(Self organizing map, SOM)和反向传播 (Back propagation, BP)两种神经网络,提出一套新的预测球轴承剩余寿命的方法体系。深入对比分析几种不同轴承衰退指标的优缺点,利用三套时间域衰退指标和三套频率域衰退指标,包括一套新设计的指标,训练自组织映射神经网络。将源自于SOM的最小量化误差(Minimum quantization error, MQE)作为新的衰退指标,建立一套轴承性能数据库。针对球轴承衰退期,训练一套BP神经网络,根据权值计算失效时间技术,成功开发一套剩余寿命预测模型。结果表明,该方案远优于业界常用的L10寿命估计。     

Application of Digital Twin in Smart Battery Management Systems

Lithium-ion batteries have always been a focus of research on new energy vehicles,however,their internal reactions are complex,and problems such as battery aging and safety have not been fully understood.In view of the research and preliminary application of the digital twin in complex systems such as aerospace,we will have the opportunity to use the digital twin to solve the bottleneck of current battery research.Firstly,this paper arranges the develop-ment history,basic concepts and key technologies of the digital twin,and summarizes current research methods and challenges in battery modeling,state estimation,remaining useful life prediction,battery safety and control.Further-more,based on digital twin we describe the solutions for battery digital modeling,real-time state estimation,dynamic charging control,dynamic thermal management,and dynamic equalization control in the intelligent battery manage-ment system.We also give development opportunities for digital twin in the battery field.Finally we summarize the development trends and challenges of smart battery management.