黄河流域气候与水资源演变特点研究

以观测资料和前人研究成果为基础,阐述了气候变化对黄河流域水资源总量、极端水文事件、水生态环境等的影响;指出气候变化已经影响到了黄河流域水资源系统的各个环节,这种影响是否是趋势性的．未来影响程度如何,有待进一步研究。黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响评估研究正在兴起．黄河流域气候变化研究应该着重极端气象水文事件变化对流域水沙调控体系建设、水资源统一管理和调度、黄土高原区和河口区生态环境等的影响及其适应性管理对策研究,以促进流域综合管理。     

气候变化下淮河流域水资源适应性管理初探

气候变化与人类活动的不确定性因素阻碍了淮河流域水资源的有效管理,适应性管理是目前应对不确定问题的有效策略.本文针对气候变化现状,依据适应性管理内涵,在分析淮河流域水资源管理不确定性问题的基础上,提出了气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,并对气候变化下淮河流域水资源管理提出适应性对策建议.     

水资源管理模型中的气候变化不确定性模拟

气候变化对水文设计和水系统管理的影响是未来水文学家和水资源管理者将面临的重大挑战之一。当前许多水资源管理者所依赖的是历史水文数据与自适应性实时调度,但没有考虑气候变化对水文系统及调度规则的影响。以往的研究包括了不同气候变化情景下水资源系统的风险性、可靠性和稳定性之类的问题,但从未涉及水资源管理决策者在气候变化对管理影响方面的偏好问题。探讨了气候变化对水资源的影响及模糊集理论在水系统气候变化敏感性管理方面的适用性。此外,还例证了方法的适用性,即运用模糊集理论描述决策者在接受或排斥气候变化影响的程度及方向时的倾向性。     

澳大利亚应对气候变化的措施

为了有效应对全球气候变化的影响和挑战,澳大利亚水资源部门展开了一系列研究评估工作。介绍了数据收集、气候情景模拟以及与水利基础设施性能相关的研究情况,详述了相应的适应性管理政策与改革措施,提出了人类必须提高自身应对气候变化的能力。可为制定与实施适应性政策与措施提供参考。     

环境变化对水资源影响研究进展及其借鉴与启示

气候变化通过加剧水文循环过程进而对区域水资源产生重大影响。随着全球气温升高,全球变暖对水资源影响受到国内外水管理部门及研究者的广泛关注。本文分析了全球变暖背景下河川径流系列特征分析方法及水资源演变态势,综述了气候变化对水资源影响评价模型及主要结论。在此基础上,结合河南省水资源面临的问题,提出了针对全球变暖背景下河南省水资源评价需要重点开展的研究任务。     

气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究进展

气候变化对水资源的影响是当前全球变化研究的热点和前沿问题之一。气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究也越来越引起诸多学者的关注与重视。本文回顾了国内外气候变化对水资源影响研究现状与进展,总结了相关的研究方法,并从水文要素、气候变化与人类活动对水资源的定量评估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理措施4个方面归纳了相关方面的研究成果。同时指出了气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究存在的问题,并展望了未来气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究的发展趋势。     

气候变化对水资源的影响及适应性对策研究

气候变化是目前全球范围的重大环境问题之一,气候变化增加了极端天气事件发生的频率和强度．从而导致了水资源在时间空间上的重新分配和水资源数量及质量的改变,气候变化对水资源的影响,已引起了水资源管理者的重视。探究了当前的气候变化现象,并在此基础上阐述了气候变化对水资源的影响,针对气候变化的可能性．初步提出了减缓影响的适应性对策,为更好地管理水资源做出了建议。     

变化环境下水资源脆弱性及其适应性调控研究——以海河流域为例

依据国内外最新研究进展,提出了变化环境下新的内涵的水资源脆弱性与适应性管理的新概念与定义并建立了耦合环境变化对水资源影响的暴露度、水旱灾害、敏感性和抗压性的水资源脆弱性评价模型,对海河流域水资源脆弱性现状和未来气候变化影响最不利情景下的海河流域水资源脆弱性进行了定量分析研究。针对水资源脆弱性的适应性调控设置了用水总量调控、用水效率调控、水功能区达标调控、生态需水调控和综合调控五个不同方案进行分析研究。分析结果表明:从海河流域各级分区的减少水资源脆弱性目标看,单项调控最为敏感的是水功能区达标调控,其次是水资源利用效率、用水总量与生态用水控制,在所有适应性调控方案中,综合调控方案最优。     

气候变化下水资源适应性对策的定量评估方法

论述了气候变化背景下水资源管理所面临的主要问题和适应性管理的基本内涵,介绍了应对气候变化影响的水资源适应性管理的国内外研究进展,梳理归纳了目前分析评价适应性管理对策的几种不同方法,认为定量分析适应性对策的经济效益至为关键,成本效益分析的步骤主要包括:①点绘实物量基线曲线;②点绘经济量基线曲线;③点绘过去适应性管理变化曲线;④分析气候变化引发的变化;⑤适应性管理获得的效益变化。     

水资源适应性管理及其应用

水资源管理者需要充分考虑被管理系统的复杂性,关注不确定性,这就需要适应性管理方法。结合国际上有关水资源适应性管理的研究成果,对适应性管理的定义、原理、组成、条件和应用等方面进行了较系统的阐述,提出实施水资源适应性管理,需要相应政策、法律、财政、信息等保障,其在应对气候变化、修复河湖生态等方面具有广阔应用前景。     

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.     

气候变化与中国水资源可持续利用

全球变暖是目前最重要的环境问题之一.根据目前的相关研究成果,介绍了中国气候变化及其影响的事实,论述了中国水资源特点及目前存在的问题,分析了气候变化对中国典型流域河川径流量变化的贡献、未来气候变化对水资源的可能影响、以及水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性;结合中国的实际情况,初步提出了水资源管理中应对气候变化的基本适应对策.     

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

Adaptation for river basins: connecting policy goals to the water resources system.

This paper focuses on a methodology called 'generic adaptation methodology for river basins' (AMR) that provides guidance to water managers seeking: (1) potential adaptation measures to climate change and climate variability, (2) measuring impacts, and (3) evaluating adaptations. The methodology uses basic elements addressed in existing adaptation research and is designed for a participatory setting involving various stakeholders. In AMR, the water resources system is seen as an economic asset that provides 'goods and services' for both humans and ecosystems. The innovative aspect of AMR is that it distinguishes impacts to water management objectives and impacts to the physical state of water resources in a river basin in a relatively simple iterative approach. Both impact types are quantified using indicators. The framework and results are demonstrated for a case study in the Walawe basin (Sri Lanka). It is explained that actually implementing adaptations in policy making can be difficult in trans-boundary river basins as each riparian country has its own policy objectives and hence ways of dealing with adaptation.     

Managing Water Resources to Adapt to Climate Change: Facing Uncertainty and Scarcity in a Changing Context

Some of the most significant future efforts in water resources management will be devoted to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation is of special concern in regions facing water scarcity where water management is already challenged by many problems. This paper is a review of current knowledge on approaches to address water issues under uncertainty in water-scarce regions, identifying specific policy actions for climate change adaptation. The focus is on regions, like the Mediterranean, California or Australia, where water resources are well developed and have become an essential part of socioeconomic activities but are currently facing significant challenges due to their dependence on water availability to maintain living standards. We provide an overview of the expected impacts of climate change on water resources and discuss management responses based on peer-reviewed studies published over the past three decades. The adaptation choices cover a wide range of options, from adaptive demand management to utilization of remaining marginal water sources. The intensification of successful measures already applied in the past is still viewed as a solution to reduce climate impacts. However, the emphasis is progressively being placed on sustainability, developing and extending the water management paradigm to include not only technical and economic criteria, but also ecological and social considerations.     

Impacts of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Water Supply and Demand in Jordan

Abstract

The potential impact of global climate change is one of the least addressed factors in water resources planning in developing countries. The potential impacts of climate change are examined for Jordan, where a methodology is presented for improved management of water demand under the uncertainties associated with climate change. A temperature/precipitation sensitivity model is constructed and combined with water demand forecasts to project deficits for the year 2020. Deficit reducing options are then evaluated in terms of social and economic viability. The study concludes that only some of the deficits may be alleviated, illustrating the significance of considering climate change in planning for countries that already experience water imbalances.     

Evaluation of Water Resources Management Strategies to Overturn Climate Change Impacts on Lake Karla Watershed

The effects of climate change on meteorology, hydrology and ecology have become a priority area for research and for water management. It is crucial to identify, simulate, evaluate and, finally, adopt water resources management strategies to overturn the impacts of climate change. This paper is dealing with the assessment of climate change impacts on the availability of water resources and the water demands and the evaluation of water resources management strategies in the Lake Karla watershed, central Greece and it is a contribution to the “HYDROMENTOR” research project. The outputs of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling Analysis Global Circulation Model CGCM3 were downscaled using a statistical hybrid method to estimate monthly precipitation and temperature time series for present and future climate periods. The analysis was conducted for two future periods 2030–2050 and 2080–2100 and three SRES scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). The surface water and groundwater have been simulated for present and future climate periods using a modelling system, which includes coupled hydrologic models. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development are coupled with three water demand strategies. Overall, eight water management strategies are evaluated for present climate conditions and twenty four water management strategies for future climate conditions have been evaluated. The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is large and it is expected to become critical in the future, even though the impact of climate change on the meteorological parameters is very moderate.     

Climate Change and Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks, with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar, suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production, fisheries, and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia, vulnerabilities would still exist, and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect, reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate.     

Impacts of Climate Change and Seasonal Variability on Economic Treatment Costs: A Case Study of the Nitra River Basin,Slovakia

Analysis of climate change impacts upon water resources has focused prim arily on water quantity issues. The impacts upon water qu ality and water quality management have had little attention. This paper presents a framework for assessing climate change impacts upon stream water quality and the management costs associated with adaptation to the new hydroclim atic conditions resulting in changes in streamflow and stream temperature. W ater quality indicators as well as chemical and biological processes important to water quality are a fu nction of stream temperature. This paper reports not on ly on how water quality indices will be im pacted by alternative climate change scenarios, but on the econom ic cost of maintaining water quality stan dards. The costs of maintaining water quality standards result from increased treatm ent of waste loads due to decreased waste assimilation capacity of warmer streams. A case study based on regionally developed climate change scenarios shows that water quality levels are greatly impacted in the low flow periods (by as m uch as 14 times), while average annual conditions are n ot impacted significantly.     

Using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) in U.S. EPA BASINS integrated modeling system to assess watershed vulnerability to climate change.

During the last century, much of the United States experienced warming temperatures and changes in amount and intensity of precipitation. Changes in future climate conditions present additional risk to water and watershed managers. The most recent release of U.S. EPA's BASINS watershed modeling system includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) that provides new capabilities for assessing impacts of climate change on water resources. The BASINS CAT provides users with the ability to modify historical climate and conduct systematic sensitivity analyses of specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints to changes in climate using the BASINS models (Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)). These capabilities are well suited for addressing questions about the potential impacts of climate change on key hydrologic and water quality goals using the watershed scale at which most important planning decisions are made. This paper discusses the concepts that motivated the CAT development effort; the resulting capabilities incorporated into BASINS CAT; and the opportunities that result from integrating climate assessment capabilities into a comprehensive watershed water quality modeling system.