Quantitative Estimation Models and Their Application of Ecological Water Use at a Basin Scale

Ecological water use (EWU) is urgent in need in the lower reaches of Tarim River in China. Estimation of water amount for EWU is depending on some parameters and modeling. EWU is mainly consists of two parts in no runoff area in the basin, i.e. total water amount for restoration groundwater table and total stand water amount of the all river courses. The former is including water amount for restoration of groundwater table, lateral discharge and evaporation of water surface. The estimated values are 8.18 × 10⁸ m³, 0.68 × 10⁸ m³/a and 0.132 × 10⁸ m³/a respectively. Based on the groundwater depth rising 4.0 meters requiring 5 years, the total water amount for restoration groundwater table is 2.448 × 10⁸ m³/a. The latter, i.e., total stand water amount is 1.992 × 10⁸ m³/a. However, the development of water management measures could alleviate the issue and lead to sustainable EWU in the lower reaches of Tarim River.     

基于SWAT的沁河流域水资源生态足迹计算及承载程度分析

水资源生态足迹能够反映人类发展对自然界水资源的压力,明确流域水资源承载状况可为生态环境保护、经济社会发展和水资源科学管理提供决策依据,对推动流域生态文明建设和高质量发展具有重要意义。以沁河流域为例,借助水资源生态足迹模型,利用SWAT模型输出结果计算各子流域水资源生态足迹,并评估沁河流域水资源承载状况。结果表明：2010—2016年沁河流域水资源量多年平均值为6.17×10⁸ m³,主要受到降水量影响;各子流域水资源生态压力指数均大于1,说明沁河流域水资源处于不可承载状态,供需矛盾突出;2010—2016年水资源承载状况虽有所改善,但仍处于不可持续利用状态。研究结果可为沁河流域水资源科学管理提供参考依据,同时为其他流域尺度上的水资源生态足迹计算提供新思路。     

Approach for Estimating Available Consumable Water for Human Activities in a River Basin

Water is vital for economic development and environmental sustainability in arid and semi-arid basins. Management of water resource requires good understanding of available water for human consumption. Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrological cycle and represents the amount of water lost to the atmosphere in a basin. This study proposes a new approach to estimate available consumable water for human activities (ACW) in a basin based on precipitation, natural ET, and uncontrollable outflow, thus capping water use for human consumption in a basin. The ACW is illustrated for the Hai Basin in North China, where the average ACW from 2001 to 2012 for the entire basin is estimated at 31.97?×?10⁹m³ yr.^?1, varying between 18.61?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2002 and 42.60?×?10⁹m³yr^?1 in 2003. A water balance analysis for the basin indicates that the aquifer water depletion in Hai Basin for 2001–2012 is 5.23?×?10⁹m³yr^?1. Compared to existing water resources assessment, ACW provides an easier approach to water management planning as no hydrological data are required, only data on precipitation and ET, supported by landcover data.     

宁东能源化工基地水资源优化配置研究

宁东能源化工基地水资源极为贫乏,合理配置基地内的水资源对能源基地的发展极其重要。论文采用线性规划模型对宁东能源化工基地的联合供水方案进行了优化研究,提出了地表水和地下水联合供水方案,确定了供水方案中地下水的实际配额和供水路线,得到下述结论:陶乐傍河水源地可向平罗精细化工基地供水0.065×10~8m~3/a;骆驼井应急水源地向横城和鸳鸯湖工矿区供水0.019×10~8m~3/a;吴忠平原2号和3号备选水源地向灵武工矿区供水0.089×10~8m~3/a和0.067×10~8m~3/a;大泉地区的1号水源地向南部的马家滩和积家井工矿区供水0.054×10~8m~3/a。按地下水总供水量0.294×10~8m~3/a和最佳供水路线联合配置地下水,地表水配额只需供水3.136×10~8m~3/a,既能满足宁东能源化工基地2020年规划对水资源需求,又可实现社会经济和环境效益的最大化。     

面向供水对象转型的引大入秦工程水资源优化配置研究

引大入秦工程（以下简称引大工程）建成初期主要以秦王川农业供水为主,但随着兰州新区的建设发展,其供水对象开始向城市生活用水和工业用水转型,如何实现有限水资源的合理配置是目前研究的重点问题。基于此,依据引大工程供水区（以下简称引大供水区）可持续发展要求,构建以实现经济、社会、生态效益最大化为目标函数,可供水量、输水能力、用户需水量、排水系统排水量与变量非负为约束条件的多目标水资源优化配置模型,使用遗传算法进行求解。结果表明：2025年引大供水区不同用水部门配水量（保证率P=50%、P=75%）分别为生活用水8 323.85×10⁴、8 322.49×10⁴ m³,农业用水15 001.95×10⁴、15 631.53×10⁴ m³,工业用水11 111.00×10⁴、11 100.00×10⁴ m³,生态用水946.88×10⁴、947.02×10⁴ m³,各部门总配水量与优化前供水量4.23×10⁸ m³相比,达到供需平衡;2030年引大供水区不同用水部门配水量（保证率P=50%、P=75%）分别为生活用水12 650.51×10⁴、12 666.53×10⁴ m³,农业用水16 397.77×10⁴、17 019.70×10⁴ m³,工业用水20 498.00×10⁴、20 508.00×10⁴ m³,生态用水948.00×10⁴、948.88×10⁴ m³,不同保证率下各部门总体缺水率分别为12.27%、13.38%。2025—2030年引大供水区的非农业用水结构将大幅提升,农业灌溉用水量降低。研究结果可为引大供水区优化水资源配置决策提供参考依据。     

石川河地下水库建库条件分析及地下水位动态预测

通过分析富平县石川河河谷阶地区的自然地理、气象、水文、地质等条件以及地下水资源开发利用情况,建立了水文地质结构三维模型,论证了建立石川河地下水库的可行性,初步计算了地下水库库容约为4.95亿m~3。利用Visual MODFLOW软件建立了地下水库库区的地下水数值模型,预测了不同降水和开采条件下,进行人工回灌0.52亿m~3/a、10年后地下水库库区的地下水位变化情况。结果表明,库区内的地下水位将大范围的抬升,大部分地区与1959年的水位相近,可基本满足当地的用水需求。     

基于宏观经济模型和系统动力学的张掖盆地水资源供需研究

针对黑河流域中游张掖盆地水资源供需问题,采用宏观经济模型和系统动力学结合的方法,构建了张掖盆地水资源系统动力学模型,设计5个情景模拟张掖盆地2013-2050年水资源供需平衡状况。结果表明:宏观经济模型与系统动力学的结合能更好地刻画系统行为,准确合理地预测需水量;预测期内张掖盆地需水量逐年增长,年均总需水量为21.87×108~30.14×108m3,缺水年的年均缺水量为4.03×108~7.64×108m3,缺水时间占比为31.6%~92.1%,缺水年平均缺水指数为0.1413~0.2217;综合考虑社会经济发展、城镇化和水资源节约的情景S5是最符合可持续发展内涵和原则的情景;水资源的可持续发展,不仅需要政府的政策引导,更需要公众的参与,只有政府与公众的协调一致,才能保证水资源和社会经济的可持续发展。     

Design of Managed Aquifer Recharge for Agricultural and Ecological Water Supply Assessed Through Numerical Modeling

The Walla Walla Basin, in Eastern Oregon and Washington, USA, faces challenges in sustaining an agricultural water supply while maintaining sufficient flow in the Walla Walla River for endangered fish populations. Minimum summer river flow of 0.71 m³/s is required, forcing irrigators to substitute groundwater from a declining aquifer for lost surface water diversion. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) was initiated in 2004 attempting to restore groundwater levels and improve agricultural viability. The Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) was used to compute surface and shallow groundwater conditions in the basin under water management scenarios with varying water use, MAR, and allowable minimum river flow. A mean increase of 1.5 m of groundwater elevation, or 1.5 % of total aquifer storage, was predicted over the model area when comparing maximum MAR and no MAR scenarios where minimum river flow was increased from current level. When comparing these scenarios a 53 % greater summer flow in springs was predicted with the use of MAR. Results indicate MAR can supplement irrigation supply while stabilizing groundwater levels and increasing summer streamflow. Potential increase in long-term groundwater storage is limited by the high transmissivity of the aquifer material. Increased MAR caused increased groundwater discharge through springs and stream beds, benefiting aquatic habitat rather than building long-term aquifer storage. Judicious siting of recharge basins may be a means of increasing the effectiveness of MAR in the basin.     

基于数值模拟及可开采系数法的广花盆地地下水可开采量研究

使用数值模拟法(GMS模拟软件)及开采系数法计算广花盆地的可开采量,以合理地评价广花盆地地下水资源及可开采潜力,防止地下水过度开采及由此引发的地质灾害。结果表明:构建的地下水水流三维数值模型可为研究区提供合理的地下水水流模拟结果,在整个模拟期共730 d中,第60、180、540和730 d的标准化残差均方根分别为4. 996%、4. 043%、6. 517%、6. 787%。以可开采水位最大降深5 m作为岩溶含水层抽取水量的约束条件,数值模型计算得到的地下水可开采量为12 997. 78×104m3。采用可开采系数法计算得到的地下水可开采量为14 015. 10×104m3。两种方法的计算结果相对误差为7. 3%,两种方法相互验证,结果较为可靠,最后提出广花盆地应急备用水源地地下水管理目标及措施。     

Assessment of Water Availability and Consumption in the Karkheh River Basin,Iran—Using Remote Sensing and Geo-statistics

This study was conducted to assess water availability and consumption in the Karkheh River Basin in Iran using secondary data and freely available satellite data. Precipitation was estimated using geo-statistical techniques while a Surface Energy Balance approach was selected for evapotranspiration estimation. The spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) for the Karkheh Basin has been estimated by use of 19 cloud free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, which cover a complete cropping year from November 2002 to October 2003. ET_a estimates were compared to potential crop evapotranspiration (ET_p) estimates for two predominantly irrigated wheat areas in Upper and Lower Karkheh. Differences were found to be 12.5% and 11.7% respectively. Results of the ETa and precipitation estimates reveal that for the study period, the Karkheh Basin received 18,507 × 10⁶m³ as precipitation while ET_a is estimated at 16,680 × 10⁶m³. Estimated outflow from the basin for the study period only is 7.8% of the precipitation and indicates that water is a very scarce resource in the Karkheh basin. The basin has been divided in sub-basins to allow for more detailed analysis and results indicate that water balance closure at sub-basin scale ranges from 7.2% to 0.6% of the precipitation. This suggests that the water balance is sufficiently understood for policy and decision making.     

厄立特里亚Zara地区Koka金矿开采的地下水资源可持续性分析

在非洲干旱性气候条件下,水资源的补给量稀缺,做到地下水资源的有效平衡极其重要。在分析Zara科卡金矿水文地质条件的基础上,建立了准三维有限差分地下水流模型,模拟预测了科卡金矿开采期间和封场后,在丰水、枯水和平水3种气候条件下矿山供水对地下水水位降深的影响,并对有、无矿山供水条件下的地下水水位降深进行了对比分析。模拟结果表明:前1~3 a,日供水量约0.97×10~4m~3/a,在4~7 a,日供水量约在1.01×10~4m~3/a,矿山供水开采不会引起当地地下水资源枯竭,且矿山关闭后,含水层水位会很快恢复;即使在增加矿山供水和枯水气候同时出现的最不利条件下,井场中心出现最大地下水位降深为1.0~1.2 m,且距离井场中心距离约2km的边缘区域,地下水位降深仅为0.2 m。模拟结果可为高温干旱地区矿山的供水开采提供科学依据。     

Resolving Trans-jurisdictional Water Conflicts by the Nash Bargaining Method: A Case Study in Zhangweinan Canal Basin in North China

Trans-jurisdictional conflict in both water quantity and quality is a general concern in large river basins. In this paper, the relative utility function combined with the asymmetric Nash bargaining method was established to analyze the trans-jurisdictional conflict between water quantity and water quality in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin in China. The basin was divided into four conflict stakeholders, namely, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Shandong Provinces, based on administrative unit. The water usage and pollutant discharge scheme for multiple stakeholders was optimized using the established model to satisfy the environmental flow and water quality objectives at the identified conflict sections. The results indicated that the total water consumption was reduced from 4.38?×?10⁹?m³ in 2007 to 1.97?×?10⁹?m³, and that the allowable COD and NH₃-N discharged into the river was less than 3.8?×?10⁴?t and 4.3?×?10³?t, respectively. About 81.1 % of COD and 76.1 % of NH₃-N should be further reduced compared with the values in 2007.     

Agricultural Multi-Water Source Allocation Model Based on Interval Two-Stage Stochastic Robust Programming under Uncertainty

Numerous uncertainties and complexities exist in the agricultural irrigation water allocation system, that must be considered in the optimization of water resources allocation. In this paper, an agricultural multi-water source allocation model, consisting of stochastic robust programming and two-stage random programming and introducing interval numbers and random variables to represent the uncertainties, was proposed for the optimization of irrigation water allocation in Jiamusi City of Heilongjiang Province, China. The model could optimize the water allocaton to different crops of groundwater and surface water. Then, the optimal target value and the optimal water allocation of different water sources distributed to different crops could be obtained. The model optimized the economic benefits and stability of the agricultural irrigation water allocation system via the introduction of a the penalty cost variable measurement to the objective function. The results revealed that the total water shortage changed from [18.6, 32.3]?×?10⁸ m³ to [15.7, 26.2]?×?10⁸ m³ at a risk level ω from zero to five, indicating that the water shortage decreased and the reliability improved in the agricultural irrigation water allocation system. Additionally, the net economic benefits of irrigation changed from [287.21, 357.86]?×?10⁸ yuan to [253.23, 301.32]?×?10⁸ yuan, indicating that the economic benefit difference was reduced. Therefore, the model can be used by decision makers to develop appropriate water distribution schemes based on the rational consideration of the economic benefit, stability and risk of the agricultural irrigation water allocation system.     

基于地下水回灌试验及数值模拟的秦岭山前洪积扇地下水库调蓄功能研究

实施秦岭山前截洪引渗工程,充分利用地下水库调蓄能力,对于解决水资源时空分布不均、改善关中地区水资源短缺、提高水资源利用率有重要意义。为进一步研究秦岭山前洪积扇地下水库调蓄功能,选取太平河洪积扇进行地下水回灌试验,并使用Visual MODFLOW软件对调蓄功能进行数值模拟。结果表明:在所设计的4种调蓄方式下,平均调蓄深度约为10 m,太平河、秦岭山前洪积扇调蓄估算量分别为3374.8万m3、27.04亿m3,如适度加强补采,可激发更大调蓄潜力。     

基于多目标不确定性机会约束规划的矿区水资源配置研究

以矿区水资源配置系统为研究对象,针对矿区生态恢复过程水资源配置的多目标、模糊、不确定性的特点,构建多目标不确定性机会约束规划模型对矿区水资源进行优化配置。基于生态优先的配水原则,以碳排放最小化目标代替传统的污染物排放量最小化目标,兼顾碳排放最小化、系统经济效益最大化以及缺水量最小化,建立矿区生态环境-经济社会-水资源协调发展的多目标模型,统筹分配地下水、地表水、矿井水以及再生水。对实际情况中的不确定性因素采用区间参数的方法表示,并通过遗传算法对模型进行求解,得到合理的水资源配置方案。将模型应用于宁夏回族自治区羊场湾矿区,结果表明：以碳排放为目标的不确定性机会约束规划多目标模型能够很好地统筹矿区经济发展目标与水资源节约目标,配置方案可保证各个用水部门的需水满足度达到100%,而以污染物排放量为目标的优化方案存在区域缺水的情况。系统可带来年碳净吸收量(CO₂)为533.7～702.4 t,预期年经济效益为162.3×10⁴～163.7×10⁴元,区域年供水富余量为43.5×10⁴～49.7×10     

2000—2014年塔里木河下游地下水补给量及合理需求量

以塔里木河下游为研究区,以区域内9个固定监测断面为基础,依据断面内各个地下水监测井,收集了输水前和第15次输水后的地下水位数据,结合土壤饱和差计算方法,分析了第15次输水后的地下水补给量,并联系植被生长所需的合理水位探讨了地下水到达合理水位所需的水量,以期评价生态输水的阶段性效果,为调整生态输水方案提供理论参考。结果表明:(1)生态输水前地下水埋深在6~13 m之间,第15次生态输水后,地下水最大升高幅度达到8.26 m;(2)第15次生态输水后,塔里木河下游地下水补给量约为20.44亿m3;(3)为使地下水达到植被生长所需适宜水位,塔里木河下游地下水的合理需求量约为24.08亿m3。     

若尔盖高原径流量变化与储水量计算

若尔盖高原的降水量微弱减少与蒸发量持续上升,使若尔盖高原径流量与储水量逐年降低,直接减少了若尔盖高原的湿地面积和对黄河上游径流量的补给。基于红原、若尔盖和玛曲站的气象数据和7个水文站的径流量数据(1981-2011年),并对数据序列进行插补与计算,获得若尔盖高原的径流量变化与气候因子的响应关系,进而计算储水量变化。计算结果表明:若尔盖高原向黄河年均补水(67. 08±14. 90)×108m3,并以0. 48×108m3/a速率持续减少。降水量每减少1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0. 02×108和0. 05×108m3。蒸发量每增加1 mm将导致黑河与白河的年径流量分别减少0. 12×108和0. 27×108m3。1981-2011年若尔盖高原的年均储水量为(59. 30±18. 69)×108m3,其年均递减速率为0. 49×108m3/a。本研究有助于认识若尔盖高原对于黄河上游水资源保障的重要性。     

黄河流域粮食生产水足迹及虚拟水流动影响评价EI北大核心CSCD

为分析黄河流域粮食生产用水的可持续性,引入水足迹和虚拟水相关理论方法,对研究区主要粮食生产水足迹及粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动格局进行了量化解析,并对未来粮食生产水足迹进行了预估。结果表明:2011—2016年,全流域粮食生产总水足迹和单位水足迹分别由460亿m^(3)和1.20 m^(3)/kg降为402 m^(3)和0.93 m^(3)/kg,均呈下降趋势;从粮食贸易伴生的虚拟水流动特点来看,流域全口径粮食虚拟水从2011年的110.7亿m^(3)减小到2016年的50.3亿m^(3),呈输入态势;除稻谷之外的粮食虚拟水由82.6亿m^(3)增加到193.4亿m^(3),呈输出态势;在流域不同气候情景下,2035年粮食生产总水足迹为481.9亿~518.7亿m^(3),其中绿水足迹增幅达20%,而蓝水足迹增长不显著;未来流域内粮食输出量的增加会进一步加剧本地农业生产的用水矛盾,但粮食灌溉总用水量的增速可能放缓。     

Economic Value of Tree Fruit Production in Jordan Valley from a Virtual Water Perspective

The continuous high demand of water resources for agricultural uses in Jordan is leading to a water crisis. A possible partial solution may be to import food which requires large amounts of water to grow instead of cultivating high water consuming crops. Crops such as banana and citrus cause a huge virtual water loss, which can be reduced by cultivating other less water-demanding crops. This paper focuses on analyzing the economic value of cultivating tree fruit from a virtual water perspective. The virtual water calculations in this study depend on the average rainfall, water quota, and the crops’ water requirements (CWR). The gross profit to the water use ratio showed that banana has the lowest value 0.085 JD/m³, while lemon has the highest value 1.65 JD/m³. The calculations show that the average embedded water in fruits varies from about 470 m³/ton for grapes to about 2,500 m³/ton for dates. Banana and citrus plantations consume about 21 and 71 million cubic meters (MCM) annually, respectively, which represent about 85% of the total water consumption in fruit tree plantation. The virtual water flow estimation embedded in fruits shows that Jordan imports about 77 MCM per year. However it exports about 29 MCM per year. The results were analyzed from an integrated water resources management (IWRM) perspective. The analysis shows that a way to recover some of the water costs involved in, e.g., banana production would be to increase the fertilizer cost by about 10%. This would double the water cost and increase the banana production cost by about 6.8%. Using this alternative could be a way to better manage the huge losses in virtual water involved in banana production in the Jordan Valley.     

和田河流域冰川径流对气候变化响应的模拟分析

为模拟和田河流域上游冰川径流,构建了嵌入冰川模块的SWAT模型,并基于实测径流数据及冰川编目数据对模型进行校正与验证,定量分析了和田河流域上游冰川径流的变化趋势及其对出山径流的贡献和对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:1967—2017年玉龙喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为11.02亿m³,冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率为48.7％,喀拉喀什河流域多年平均冰川径流量为9.51亿m³,冰川径流贡献率为45.5％;在0.01显著性水平下,玉龙喀什河流域气温与降水量均呈显著上升趋势,喀拉喀什河流域气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈不显著上升趋势;气候变化背景下,两条支流由于地理位置、冰川特征等的不同,导致两条支流的径流响应呈现较大差异,玉龙喀什河流域冰川径流量呈显著增加趋势,而冰川径流对出山径流的贡献率呈显著下降趋势,喀拉喀什河流域冰川径流量与冰川径流贡献率均呈不显著增加趋势。