Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration

Economic assessments of the welfare effects of energy insecurity are typically uncertain and fail to provide clear guidance to policy makers. As a result, governments have had little analytical support to complement expert judgment in the assessment of energy security. This is likely to be inadequate when considering multiple policy goals, and in particular the intersections between energy security and climate change mitigation policies. This paper presents an alternative approach which focuses on gauging the causes of energy insecurity as a way to assist policy making. The paper focuses on the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration and distinguishes between the price and physical availability components of energy insecurity. It defines two separate indexes: the energy security price index (ESPI), based on the measure of market concentration in competitive fossil fuel markets, and the energy security physical availability index (ESPAI), based on the measure of supply flexibility in regulated markets. The paper illustrates the application of ESPI and ESPAI with two case studies—France and the United Kingdom—looking at the evolution of both indexes to 2030.     

Structural changes in Japan''s economy and society and outlook for long-term energy supply and demand

The purpose of this report is to give an outlook for Japan's energy supply and demand to 2015, while taking into consideration structural changes in the economy and society at present and into the future, and to extract subjects that we should address today. When projecting energy supply and demand for the next two decades, we face a number of uncertainties both at home and abroad. In order to project energy supply and demand in the future, three scenarios are assumed: the standard case, the high growth case and the low growth case. Energy supply and demand are projected for each case, showing conditions under which the three scenarios are achieved.     

Environmental impacts and energy demand of rapeseed as an energy crop in Chile under different fertilization and tillage practices

The implementation of energy crops in Chile is an option that requires prior environmental studies within the framework of a sustainable national policy of energy security. The aim of this study is to assess the environmental performance of rapeseed crop (Brassica napus L.) in Chile in view of its potential use for the production of biodiesel. Using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), the study quantifies the energy demand and the environmental impacts associated with the main tillage systems of Chilean rapeseed production on a national level: conventional tillage and zero tillage, and with four mineral fertilisation trials on a local level (combination of N, P and K rates). In the inventory, the agricultural inputs are obtained from national sources; international databases processes are partially adapted to Chilean conditions. For the impact assessment, the CML 2 baseline 2001 method is applied. The results indicate that the two tillage systems present similar energy demand and environmental impacts profile, with the exception of the categories photochemical ozone creation and freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity. In both systems, the use of mineral fertilisers has the greatest energy demand, with a contribution of over 75%, and the greatest environmental impacts. In contrast, fungicides and seeds have a minimum contribution, all together, less than 3%. The results of LCA of fertilisation trials show that higher fertilisation rates require an increase in seed yield to compensate additional impacts and to be environmentally favourable.     

Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives

We explore the relationship between low-carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the UK electricity system. We consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security—robustness against interruptions of any one source—and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the UK government and independent researchers. Our results show that low-carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long-term diversity in UK electricity generation. With reference to data on wind generation we also consider the impact of source variability on a second dimension of security—the reliability of generation availability. We conclude that this does not undermine our fundamental conclusion that low-carbon scenarios are associated with greater strategic security of supply in UK electricity. We discuss reasons for this result, explore sensitivities, and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations.     

China’s energy security: The perspective of energy users

The article explores the energy security concerns faced by China from the point of view of energy users working in government, university, civil society and business sectors. The authors first derive a set of seven hypotheses related to Chinese energy security drawn from a review of the recent academic literature. We then explain each of these seven hypotheses, relating to (1) security of energy supply, (2) geopolitics, (3) climate change, (4) decentralization, (5) energy efficiency, (6) research and innovation of new energy technologies, and (7) self sufficiency and trade. Lastly, the article tests these hypotheses through a survey distributed in English and Mandarin completed by 312 Chinese participants. The conclusion presents insights for policymakers and energy scholars.     

Thermogravimetric analysis of microalgae combustion under different oxygen supply concentrations

Recently, studies of microalgae in China have increased a lot because of their obvious advantages over other biological fuels. In this paper, the combustion behavior of Chlorella vulgaris (a genus of unicellular green microalgae) was investigated in a thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) from room temperature to 800 °C in O₂/N₂ atmospheres. The effects of different oxygen concentrations (20, 50, 60, 80 vol.%) and different heating rates (10, 20 and 40 °C min⁻¹) on the combustion processes of C. vulgaris had been studied. The results indicated that the combustion processes of C. vulgaris could be divided into three stages. The oxygen concentrations and heating rates had important effects on the main combustion processes of C. vulgaris. The iso-conversional method involving Flynn–Wall–Ozawa (FWO) and the Kissinger–Akahira–Sunose (KAS) methods were used for the kinetic analysis of the main combustion process. The results indicated that, when the oxygen concentration varied from 20 to 80 vol.%, the value of activation energy increased respectively from 134.03 to 241.04 kJ mol⁻¹ by using FWO method and from 134.53 to 242.33 kJ mol⁻¹ by KAS method. Moreover, the optimal oxygen concentration for C. vulgaris combustion was 25–35 vol.%_.     

The Energiewende: Not an energy turnaround,rather a customary energy system adaption

Secondary energy hydrogen is on the verge of becoming – after or in parallel to coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear fission, electricity, energy efficiency gains, and all sorts of renewable energies — the eighth energy in the octagonal energy mix mankind utilizes, before — perhaps — nuclear fusion may become the ninth. Never in the 250 years of modern anthropogenic energy history was the mix in a steady state, never did a new energy addition fully replace its predecessors; the ever increasing demand needed them all; the relative importance of an individual energy changed, energy multiplicity and heterogeneity grew — and still grow.     

Supply chain cost analysis of long-distance transportation of energy wood in Finland

The increasing use of bioenergy has resulted in a growing demand for long-distance transportation of energy wood. For both biofuels and traditional forest products, the importance of energy efficiency and rail use is growing. A GIS-based model for energy wood supply chains was created and used to simulate the costs for several supply chains in a study area in eastern Finland. Cost curves of ten supply chains for logging residues and full trees based on roadside, terminal and end-facility chipping were analyzed. The average procurement costs from forest to roadside storage were included. Railway transportation was compared to the most commonly used truck transportation options in long-distance transport. The potential for the development of supply chains was analyzed using a sensitivity analysis of 11 modified supply chain scenarios.For distances shorter than 60 km, truck transportation of loose residues and end-facility comminution was the most cost-competitive chain. Over longer distances, roadside chipping with chip truck transportation was the most cost-efficient option. When the transportation distance went from 135 to 165 km, depending on the fuel source, train-based transportation offered the lowest costs. The most cost-competitive alternative for long-distance transport included a combination of roadside chipping, truck transportation to the terminal and train transportation to the plant. Due to the low payload, the energy wood bundle chain with train transportation was not cost-competitive. Reduction of maximum truck weight increased the relative competitiveness of loose residue chains and train-based transportation, while reduction of fuel moisture increased competitiveness, especially of chip trucks.     

Keep that fire burning: Fuel supply risk management strategies of Swedish district heating plants and implications for energy security

Recent decades have seen a strong increase in bioenergy utilization in Sweden, from 52 TWh in 1983 to 128 TWh in 2013. Much of this increase has been achieved by replacing fossil fuels with different forms of bioenergy in district heating. Increased use of bioenergy is generally seen as key to reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and improving energy security.However, replacing fossil fuels with solid biomass fuels in stationary heat and power generation entails significantly more complicated fuel supply logistics, with geographically scattered material associated with storage difficulties and low energy density. Given these risks and challenges and the key role of biomass-based district heating in the Swedish energy system, disturbances in fuel supply to district heating could potentially be an energy security issue.Through literature studies and interviews with employees at 18 district heating plants, we mapped present and future risks and risk management strategies in district heating supply in the Mälardalen region, south-east Sweden. We found that although small disturbances to fuel supply are not uncommon, the likelihood of heat supply failures due to fuel supply problems is low. Risk awareness is generally high among fuel supply managers, with widespread use of multilevel redundancies and diversification as key risk management strategies. However, fuel supply to plants is highly dependent on functioning truck transport and, consequently, availability of diesel fuel for trucks. Risk management can be strengthened further by implementation of forward-looking risk assessments that are less reliant on past experiences.     

Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO₂ emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.     

蒸发式热分配表在我国的应用分析

热分配表能否在我国采暖计量上应用仍在探讨中,本文分析了热分配表应用的方法和要注意的问题。     

Life cycle cost analysis of energy efficiency design options for refrigerators in Brazil

The purpose of this paper was to present the results of a life cycle cost analysis concerning the purchase and operation of a more efficient popular refrigerator model compared with a baseline design in Brazil. The summarized results may be useful for organizations working to promote sustainable energy development. This paper specifically focuses on refrigerators, since their energy consumption is predicted to constitute over 30% of the total average domestic electricity bill in Brazilian households. If all new Brazilian refrigerators had an energy efficiency at the level consistent with the least life cycle cost of ownership, it would result in an annual savings of 2.8 billion dollars (US$) in electricity bills, 45 TWh of electricity demand, and 18 Mt of CO₂ emissions, with a respective payback period of 7 years which is less than half the average estimated lifetime of a refrigerator. The analysis was conducted following the guidelines of similar analyses available from the US Department of Energy and the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program.

Shaping China's energy security: The impact of domestic reforms

This paper is a subsequent study of China's energy security situation which concludes that China's energy security has not improved over 30 years of economic reform. The objective of the study is to explore qualitatively why the energy security situation has not improved. To answer the ‘why’ question, the study opens up a new perspective by analyzing the relationship between energy security and energy policies from the macroeconomic reform perspective. This study discusses major reforms that took place over 30 years. It is found that China's macroeconomic reform has restricted the formation of China's energy policies and determined its energy security situation. In essence, China's energy policies are only a reaction to the macroeconomic measures. In other words, China's energy policies are not originally intended to improve energy security, but passive reactions to China's macroeconomic reform. This explains why China did not improve its energy security situation despite 30 years of reform.     

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to base the calibration directly on available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. The uncertainty in this estimate is considerable, however, and depends on our assumptions about the availability of low-cost renewable energy: the initial cost level, the steepness of the supply curves and share of renewable energy in the baseline. Within the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not a binding constraint) to 32% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewable energy are high and its initial share is low).     

Energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with their CO2 equivalents

Various types of energy sources are used in the residential and industrial sectors. Choosing the type of sources is important. When an energy source is selected, its CO₂ equivalent and energy and exergy prices must be known for a sustainable future and for establishing energy policies. These prices are based on their energy values. Exergy analysis has been recently applied to a wide range of energy-related systems. Thus, obtaining the exergy values has become more meaningful for long-term planning. In this study, energy and exergy prices of various energy sources along with CO₂ equivalents are calculated and compared for residential and industrial applications in Turkey. Energy sources considered include coal, diesel oil, electricity, fuel oil, liquid petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, heat pumps and geothermal, and their prices were obtained over a period of 18 months, from January 2008 to June 2009. For the residential and industrial sectors, minimum energy and exergy prices were found for ground source heat pumps, while maximum energy and exergy prices belong to LPG for both sectors.     

Optimization of insulation thickness for different glazing areas in buildings for various climatic regions in Turkey

Insulation is one of the most effective methods intended for reducing energy consumption in both heating and cooling of buildings. Selecting the right materials and determining the optimum insulation thickness in building insulation application is an important issue. In 2000, the “Thermal Insulation Requirements for Buildings” was enacted in Turkey, energy saving by limiting the energy amount used for heating in buildings being the target. In this study, the effect of the alteration of windows and exterior wall areas on the heating energy requirement of the building and on the optimum insulation thickness has been examined by using P₁–P₂ method. The study has been carried out for four degree-day regions of Turkey for various insulation materials, glazing areas, and fuel types; the results have been presented in charts. In the rest of this study, effects of different insulation thicknesses and fuel on fuel consumption and thereby on emissions of pollutants such as CO₂ and SO₂ are evaluated. For example, in the building where XPS (extruded polystyrene foam) insulation material and natural gas are used and where the ratio of glazing area to exterior wall area is 0.2 (glazing area percentage), energy saving for the four regions has been found to be 13.996, 31.680, 46.613, and 63.071 $/m², respectively, and the payback period of investment has been found to be 2.023, 1.836, 1.498, and 1.346 years, respectively. The emissions of CO₂ are decreased by 50.91% for the cases in which optimum insulation material (XPS) and natural gas are used. The emissions of CO₂ and SO₂ are decreased by 54.67% for the cases in which optimum insulation material (XPS) and fuel oil are used.     

The additional benefits of setting up an energy security centre

An Agreement of Cooperation was concluded in 2008 on the setting up of an Energy Security Centre amongst the Hungarian Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Economy and Transport, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Office for Research and Technology and the Prime Minister's Office. This paper summarizes the findings for the setting up of the Centre and creating the necessary conditions required for its operation. The main idea is that qualitatively new conditions to facilitate effective problem solving to meet the demands of mankind for energy are needed. The key part of this work is the creation of the structures of a global problem solving network. It will function as a network of energy security knowledge centres (KC). A number of KC with different specialisation will be built on these structures, resulting in a global network with new synergies, which will in return foster the development of new capabilities and the emergence of new way of thinking. The paper discusses the results related to the application of a global approach to energy security and points out the necessity of regarding energy security and environmental protection as integral parts of the system.     

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

In order to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM–UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO₂ emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low.     

The security of energy infrastructure and supply in North Africa: Hydrocarbons and renewable energies in comparative perspective

While security risks to energy infrastructure and supply are frequently cited as a source of concern in the public debate on Europe’s energy relationships with North Africa, few academic publications have addressed the issue to date. This article focuses on two potential threats to energy security in the North African context: first, intenational disruption of energy supplies by governments; second, attacks by non-state actors on energy infrastructure. Based on an analysis of North African security and energy geopolitics, the article provides an assessment of these threats as they have materialized with regard to existing energy industries, particularly oil and gas. The article then seeks to apply the findings to renewable energy schemes that are currently being discussed and developed, gauging the likelihood and impact of such threats materializing in respect to various technologies, and differentiating between different states of the region. Finally, the article provides recommendations for policy and further research needs for a successful common European–North African energy future.     

Merging of energy and environmental analyses for district heating systems

District heating (DH) systems, together with combined heat and power (CHP) plants, have been increasing both in number and interest over the last decade, but the environmental improvements are still controversial, because although there is usually a reduction in CO₂ emissions, a positive effect concerning other pollutants is not always certain. A limited number of works that pay particular attention to the local environmental effect due to DH plants have been found in a brief overview of DH papers. The energetic and environmental impact of a new DH+CHP plant has been investigated in the present paper, where this plant has been proposed to substitute the existing heating systems. The environmental aspects concerning the local variations due to some pollutants, such as sulfur oxides (SO_x), particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), are in particular taken into account. The main data necessary for the analysis and the hypotheses that are useful to simulate the behavior of the local heating plant and DH plants (e.g. efficiency, the heating demand, etc.) are discussed. A dispersion model (Gaussian model) has been used to evaluate the effect at a local scale. Finally, a case study concerning a new DH+CHP plant in Northern Italy is presented and discussed.