Energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: Scenarios on potential reduction

A model has been developed for studying the effect of three hypothetical approaches in reducing electricity and energy demand in the Norwegian building stock: wide diffusion of thermal carriers, heat pumps and conservation measures, respectively. Combinations of these are also considered. The model has a demand side perspective, considers both residential and service sectors, and calculates energy flows from net to delivered energy. Energy demand is given by the product of activity and intensity matrices. The activity levels are defined for the stock and the new construction, renovation and demolition flows. The intensity properties are defined in archetypes, and are the result of different energy class and heating carriers share options. The scenarios are shaped by combining the activity flows with different archetypes. The results show that adopting conservation measures on a large scale does allow reducing both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlight the importance of making a clear distinction between the assumptions on intensity and activity levels.     

Reevaluation of Turkey's hydropower potential and electric energy demand

This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper, at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233) TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334) TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476) TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25–35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020.     

Consumer demand for ‘green power’ and energy efficiency

This article examines reported willingness to pay for electric utility investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency resources using the results of Deliberative Polls^® conducted by electric utilities in Texas.¹ Age, education, and salary tend to affect reported willingness to pay for utility investments in these resources. Intensive exposure to information about energy resource issues led to an increase in the number of respondents interested in paying a modest premium to support investments in both renewable energy resources and energy efficiency. However, average reported premiums actually declined following the Polls, as very high outlier responses moved to more reasonable values following the Polls. These results support the contention that informed dialogue about energy alternatives will result in broader interest in providing a modest level of support for these resources.     

Household electricity demand forecast and energy savings potential for Vientiane,Lao PDR

This paper uses the survey data on household electricity demand from five districts of Vientiane, Lao PDR, for the demand projection up to 2030 using the end-use model. The scenario analysis is used to verify the potential of an energy-saving program by alternating selected appliances with more energy-efficient ones following the labelling standard of Thailand. The demographic structure of electrified households and the energy efficiency of electric appliances are considered as the dominant factors affecting electricity demand. Under the base-case scenario, the total electricity demand of Vientiane increased from 593?GWh in 2013 to 965?GWh in 2030. In the energy efficiency scenario, it is revealed that the appliance standard enhancement program can save total electricity demand in 2030 by 147?GWh (?15.2%), where 117?GWh (?12.1%) of which is contributed by the air conditioner and 30?GWh (?3.1%) by the lighting equipment.     

Motor systems energy efficiency supply curves: A methodology for assessing the energy efficiency potential of industrial motor systems

Motor-driven equipment accounts for approximately 60% of manufacturing final electricity use worldwide. A major barrier to effective policymaking, and to more global acceptance of the energy efficiency potential in industrial motor systems, is the lack of a transparent methodology for quantifying the magnitude and cost-effectiveness of these energy savings. This paper presents the results of groundbreaking analyses conducted for five countries and one region to begin to address this barrier. Using a combination of expert opinion and available data from the United States, Canada, the European Union, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil, bottom-up energy efficiency supply curve models were constructed to estimate the cost-effective electricity efficiency potentials and CO₂ emission reduction for three types of motor systems (compressed air, pumping, and fan) in industry for the selected countries/region. Based on these analyses, the share of cost-effective electricity saving potential of these systems as compared to the total motor system energy use in the base year varies between 27% and 49% for pumping, 21% and 47% for compressed air, and 14% and 46% for fan systems. The total technical saving potential varies between 43% and 57% for pumping, 29% and 56% for compressed air, and 27% and 46% for fan systems.     

Modeling energy efficiency insurances and energy performance contracts for a quantitative comparison of risk mitigation potential

Financial risk mitigation via Energy Performance Contracting or Energy Efficiency Insurances may overcome individual barriers for energy efficiency investments. However, while the financial industry, and especially insurance companies, may have compelling reasons to get involved in energy efficiency investments, the research on and real-world applications of risk transfer contracts for private decision-makers are scarce. Thus, this study quantitatively compares the risk mitigation potential of risk transfer contracts based on a comprehensive energy bill savings forecast model comprising stochastic processes for weather, commodity prices, and technological energy efficiency performance. The model is fitted with a unique dataset for German residential buildings. Our findings indicate that risk transfer contracts positively affect individual decision-makers' willingness to invest in energy efficiency. Generally, we find Energy Performance Contracts to be superior in most scenarios when transaction costs are not considered. However, insurance companies may benefit from diversification effects and by ceding risks to global capital markets and reinsurance companies.     

Energy efficiency improvement potentials and a low energy demand scenario for the global industrial sector

The adoption of energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce industrial energy use. This study estimates the future industrial energy consumption under two energy demand scenarios: (1) a reference scenario that follows business as usual trends and (2) a low energy demand scenario that takes into account the implementation of energy efficiency improvement measures. These scenarios cover energy demand in the period 2009–2050 for ten world regions. The reference scenario is based on the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2011 edition) up to 2035 and is extrapolated by Gross Domestic Product projections for the period 2035–2050. According to the reference scenario, the industrial energy use will increase from 105 EJ in 2009 to 185 EJ in 2050 (excluding fuel use as a feedstock). It is estimated that, with the adoption of energy efficient technologies and increased recycling, the growth in industrial energy use in 2050 can be limited to 140 EJ, an annual energy use increase of 0.7 % compared with the 2009 case. The 2050 industrial energy use in the low energy demand scenario is estimated to be 24 % lower than the 2050 energy use in the reference scenario. The results of this study highlight the importance of industrial energy efficiency by providing insights of the energy savings potentials in different regions of the world.     

Recent estimates of energy efficiency potential in the USA

Understanding the potential for reducing energy demand through increased end-use energy efficiency can inform energy and climate policy decisions. However, if potential estimates are vastly different, they engender controversial debates, clouding the usefulness of energy efficiency in shaping a clean energy future. A substantive question thus arises: is there a general consensus on the potential estimates? To answer this question, this paper reviews recent studies of US national and regional energy efficiency potential in buildings and industry. Although these studies are based on differing assumptions, methods, and data, they suggest technically possible reductions of ~25–40 % in electricity demand and ~30 % in natural gas demand in 2020 and economic reductions of ~10–25 % in electricity demand and ~20 % in natural gas demand in 2020. These estimates imply that electricity growth from 2009 to 2020 ranges from turning US electricity demand growth negative, to reducing it to a growth rate of ~0.3 %/year (compared to ~1 % baseline growth).     

Energy demand,economic growth,and energy efficiency—the Bakun dam-induced sustainable energy policy revisited

In embarking on a dynamic course of economic development and industrial modernism, Malaysia sees the need to increase its electricity generation capacity through the development of a mega-dam project—the Bakun dam. Although hydroelectricity generation offers one of the benign options in accommodating the increasing energy consumption per capita in Malaysia, it is argued that the construction of Bakun’s dam which involves a complete and irreversible destruction of 69,640 ha of old forest ecosystem remains a difficult and uncertain endeavour. It is further argued that apart from mega-dam technology, there are also other means to orchestrate a sustainable energy system in Malaysia. These include the implementation of demand and supply initiatives, such as the deployment of energy saving technology or influencing behavioral change towards a sustainable energy consumption pattern.     

Indian fertilizer industry: assessment of potential energy demand and CO2 emissions

Fertilizer industry is one of the largest energy consumers in India with a share of nearly 15% in total industrial energy consumption. Amongst two types of fertilizers produced in India (nitrogenous (N) and phosphatic (P₂O₅)), nearly 90% energy is consumed by the nitrogenous fertilizer in the form of fuel and feed stock. Based on the future demand projections for fertilizers in India, an attempt has been made in this paper to estimate future energy demand and CO₂ emissions from the industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing energy efficiency and energy conservation potential among commercial buildings: A statistical approach

Energy conservation in the commercial sector is impeded by the lack of simple yet reliable measures of building energy efficiency. A simple Energy Utilization Index is preferable, but it lacks reliability if it remains unadjusted for significant sources of variation. Linear regression analysis represents a straightforward method for introducing necessary sophistication, but care must be exercised in model specification and sample selection. A model incorporating climate, occupancy patterns, HVAC design, and building type explains 42% of the EUI variance in a sample of Texas school and university buildings.     

Assessment of mitigation options for the energy system in Bulgaria

The Bulgarian greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile reveals the energy sector as the most significant emission source and also as an area where great potential for GHG emissions reduction exists. Mitigation options in energy supply were selected considering the potential of fossil fuel substitution and new energy technology implementation in the context of the existing structure of energy system and projects for mid- and long-term development. Basically three modules of ENPEP were used: BALANCE — to calculate the energy flows and energy cost from primary fuel resources and fuel import to energy end-use, IMPACT — to calculate GHG emissions, and ELECTRIC — to project the electric system long-term development. Different mitigation measures combined in four scenarios were developed. The integrated mitigation scenario incorporated a mix of mitigation measures in the energy demand and supply. Implementation of CO₂ mitigation measures both in energy demand and energy supply would reduce the 2020 emission level by 34.3 Tg (29.1%), and by 544.2 Tg (21.7%) for the entire study period 2000 – 2020, compared to the baseline scenario.     

China's energy saving potential from the perspective of energy efficiency advantages of foreign-invested enterprises

The paper investigates the energy saving potential associated with firm ownership-related differences in energy efficiency such as those between domestically and foreign-owned firms. Because of a gap in official statistics this topic has barely been touched upon in the scholarly literature. This paper employs a new energy input–output table that distinguishes firm ownership (Chinese owned enterprises, COEs; and foreign-invested enterprises, FIEs) and trade mode (export processing and normal goods production) to analyze the energy efficiency advantage of FIEs in China in 2007. The results show that the total energy intensities of COEs in the industrial sector are generally 5%–35% higher than that of FIEs across industry groups. At an aggregate level, China could save up to 20.3% of its energy use, if industrial COEs could duplicate the energy use efficiency and production technology of FIEs. This gain would require major technology upgrades among COEs.     

Breaking down the silos: the integration of energy efficiency, renewable energy, demand response and climate change

This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energy efficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluation of programs from different “energy cultures” (demand response, renewable energy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features and information needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these with energy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate the different policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, and climate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs that this integration is starting to occur.

Industrial electricity demand and energy efficiency policy: the case of the Swedish mining industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-run electricity demand behavior in the Swedish mining industry with special emphasis on the impact of energy prices and private research and development (R & D) on electricity use. Methodologically, we estimate a generalized Leontief variable cost function using a panel data set of nine mining operations over the time period 1990–2005. Since the lower boundary of a set of short-run cost functions confines the long-run cost function, we can compute the long-run own- and cross-price elasticities of electricity demand. The empirical results indicate that long-run electricity demand in the mining industry is sensitive to changes in the own price, and already in a baseline setting Swedish mining companies tend to allocate significant efforts towards improving energy efficiency, in part through private R & D. From a policy perspective, the results imply that taxes (and tax exemptions) on electricity can have significant long-run impacts on electricity use. Moreover, future evaluations of so-called voluntary energy efficiency programs must increasingly recognize the already existing incentives to reduce energy use in energy-intensive industries.     

Synthetic demand functions for solar energy

There is as yet very little empirical data on solar energy demand with which to estimate demand functions econometrically. The approach of this paper is to use economic theory and engineering information to construct demand functions for solar energy installations. We present a general model of consumer choice of energy-using durable goods under uncertainty and energy rationing. From this we derive demand functions for solar water heating equipment which we quantify using technological data and assumptions about future variables such as electricity prices. Finally we conduct a sensitivity analysis which indicates that the main conclusions are robust to changes in the assumptions.     

Energy yield ratio and cumulative energy demand for wind energy converters

The cumulative energy demand and the energy yield ratio can be seen as an indicator of environmental impacts to estimate the depletion of energy resources considering a whole lifecycle. For two wind energy converters (1.5 and 0.5 MW) these figures have been calculated. For calculating energy yield ratio, the yearly energy output of three sites has been selected: coastal, near coastal and inland. The cumulative energy demand of the wind energy converter varies from 13,795 to 13,927 GJ. The energy yield ratio is between 70 and 40 depending on the selected site.     

Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?

Observations of historical energy consumption, energy prices, and income growth in industrial economies exhibit a trend in improving energy efficiency even when prices are constant or falling. Two alternative explanations of this phenomenon are: a productivity change that uses less energy and a structural change in the economy in response to rising income. It is not possible to distinguish among these from aggregate data, and economic energy models for forecasting emissions simulate one, as an exogenous time trend, or the other, as energy demand elasticity with respect to income, or both processes for projecting energy demand into the future. In this paper, we ask whether and how it matters which process one uses for projecting energy demand and carbon emissions. We compare two versions of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, one using a conventional efficiency time trend approach and the other using an income elasticity approach. We demonstrate that while these two versions yield equivalent projections in the near-term, that they diverge in two important ways: long-run projections and under uncertainty in future productivity growth. We suggest that an income dependent approach may be preferable to the exogenous approach.