The employment impact of demographic change: A regional analysis

The central concern of this article is with measurement of the economic impact of demographic change at a regional level. To facilitate this, a method is developed which involves the linking together of two hitherto separate analytical techniques: labour market accounts and extended input-output models. The application of the method is demonstrated by reference to three UK regions – West Midlands, Merseyside, and East Anglia – with contrasting demographic and economic histories over the time intervals 1971–1981 and 1981–1991. The employment impact of consumption derived from demographic change is measured in relation to individual elements of the labour market account and comparisons are made with the effects of economic change over the same time periods. Received: 27 February 1997 / Accepted: 5 March 1998     

Spatial scale, return and onward migration, and the Long-Boertlein index of repeat migration

Abstract.  Long and Boertlein's (1990 ) measure of repeat migration can be used to infer the effects of repeat migration with data sets that did not specifically ask questions about such migration. While recent work by Rogers et al. (2003 ) evaluated how well this synthetic measure matched empirical fixed-interval measures, the role of spatial scale remains unclear, particularly since scale influences migration levels, spatial structure, and the representation of the primary, return, and onward migration components within the overall flow. Motivated by the implementation of the American Community Survey and the concurrent need to adjust data from one to five-year formats, and using the 1996 Canadian Public Use Microdata File and a custom tabulation from the 1996 Canadian census, the accuracy of the index is evaluated. In particular, the effects of spatial scale upon measures of primary, return and onward migration are described and evaluated, with the Long-Boertlein measure contrasted with fixed-interval measures of return and onward migration. Results show that the measure is sensitive to spatial scale.     

Labor market behavior in Washington: A cointegration approach

This study found a long run equilibrium relationship among population, labor force participation rate and employment, in which population is positively related to employment and negatively related to labor force participation rate. We proved that employment growth from new business investment causes increase in population in the state of Washington in spite of its beautiful environment and amenities. The causality does not operate in reverse way. We decomposed the time series into stationary components and non-stationary components and interpreted each component on the basis of historical economic condition of Washington. The response of the labor force participation rate to an impulse in employment supports Bartik's (1993) and Yeo and Holland's (2004) findings. Obviously the result is the opposite of Blanchard and Katz's (1992) finding that the long-run effect of job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. With regard to the party who benefits from job growth, we suspect that most of new jobs are captured by in-migrants because the pattern of the stationary component of employment and net migration is quite similar and the impulse response of population is significantly higher than that of employment.     

Alternative regional specification and convergence of U.S. regional growth rates

We apply absolute beta convergence techniques to cross sectional per capita income data for alternative specifications of U.S. regions in order to detect whether U.S. regional growth rates are converging over relatively recent time periods. We also explore whether estimates of convergence differ between economic and political region specifications. We show that convergence of growth rates across regions of the U.S. has continued in modern times (1969–1997) for almost any regional specification and for all time frames considered. We do find, however, some difference in convergence rates between economic and political regions. Convergence coefficients, however, are remarkably similar across alternative economic region specifications. An earlier version of this paper was presented in February 2003 at the 42nd annual meetings of the Western Regional Science Association in Rio Rico, Arizona. We would like to thank our session participants in Rio Rico and three anonymous referees for helpful comments. Any remaining errors or oversights, however, are entirely our responsibility.     

Independent and linked migration: Individual return of employment opportunity and household return of poverty status to African American interstate migration

The thrust of this study is to describe and contrast the determinants and outcomes of African-American interstate migration. We examine two types of migration outcomes – individual return to employment probability and household level return to poverty status. We investigate these motivations and outcomes based on a new typology of migration through the lens of household change that accompanies migration. We specify a pairwise two-stage probit model incorporating individual and state-level variables using Public Use Micro Sample data and various ecological data in the US. We show that independent migrants move to other states envisioning economic models of migration with migration as a derived response to opportunities, pressures, and constraints imposed by spatial inequalities in socioeconomic development. On the other hand, we demonstrate that linked migrants move to other states also for their economic need, but via kinship. In this case, the linked migrants' path does not follow the general pattern of economic circumstances. We show that household composition is an important factor that influences the destination choice for African Americans. While independent migrants are more concerned with diverse economic conditions at destinations, kinship, other ties and household structure at destinations are more significant factors for linked migrants. Received: June 2000/Accepted: June 2001     

Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling

Abstract. In this article we survey common themes in recent migration research and comment on the actual and potential contribution of regional science to this literature. There has been a marked shift in research from internal to international migration. The two research programmes would benefit from a unified framework. Spatial and systemic features of migration systems remain underdeveloped. Moreover, the perspectives from the different disciplines that intersect in regional science can still be integrated better. Communication of the research findings in terms understood by policymakers and practitioners is also desirable. Finally, many new and interesting research topics will emerge when greater effort is made to link migration research with other current research topics in regional science.     

A Bayesian forecasting approach to constructing regional input-output based employment multipliers

A Bayesian mixed estimation framework is used to examine the forecast accuracy of alternative closures of an input-output model for the Oklahoma economy. The closures correspond to textbook Type I and Type II multipliers, as well as variations of extended input-output and Type IV multipliers. Relative forecast performance of the alternative IO model closures determines which set of multipliers should be used for impact analysis. The exercise reveals differences in forecast accuracy across alternative IO model closures, suggesting that before closures of a particular IO model are adopted, they should be tested for accuracy in predicting the time series data for the regional economy under scrutiny. Received: 26 November 2000 / Accepted: 27 November 2001 RID="*" ID="*" An earlier version of this article was presented at the 47th North American Meetings of the RSAI, Chicago, IL. I would like to thank Stephan Weiler and three anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Interstate migration of college freshmen

We examine the economic determinants of interstate migration of college-bound freshmen, using state-level data. Our analysis provides a robust explanation of the striking differences among the U.S. states in out-migration of college-bound freshmen. States that provide more educational choices and higher quality education services, charge lower tuition, have broad-based merit scholarship programs and have lower income levels tend to retain a higher percentage of their college-bound freshmen at home. We thank Andrew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee and Rhonda Sharpe and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Multinationals and regional indigenous development

We investigate in how far foreign multinationals have fostered regional indigenous development in Ireland. Specifically, we examine whether foreign presence has induced indigenous plant entry within the same regions and in bordering regions. To this end we employ an entry rate model on an exhaustive panel level data set for Irish manufacturing plants. Our results show that multinationals can foster local development both within and in surrounding regions, although the extent of these effects varies between policy preferential and non-preferential regions.Received: December 2002/Accepted: January 2004This research has benefited from financial support through the RTN research project Specialization versus diversification: the microeconomics of regional development and the spatial propagation of macroeconomic shocks in Europe of the European Commission (grant No. HPRN-CT-2000-00072). We would like to thank Rosella Nicolini for helpful comments. The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Belgian FNRS and the third author acknowledges support from a Marie Curie grant. Usual disclaimers apply.     

Inter‐provincial migration and 1975–2005 regional growth in Indonesia

Migration has been seen as an important issue in regional development worldwide. This study analyses the impact of internal migration on provincial growth in Indonesia. Applying a growth model, this study found evidence that migration played no role on regional convergence during the 1975–2005 period. However, different policies affected the signs and sizes of the estimates across sub‐periods. Moreover, inter‐provincial migration, especially in‐migration in poorer provinces, had a positive impact on economic growth in Indonesia.     

The regional distribution of Spanish unemployment: A spatial analysis

In this article we propose a set of tools for analysing the regional distribution of unemployment. As we are interested in the characteristics of the distribution as a whole, results from a traditional regression analysis are complemented with those obtained by estimating its external shape before and after being conditioned to factors underlying regional unemployment. In addition, we specifically consider the spatial characteristics of the distribution, and the empirical model we develop to determine explanatory factors includes spatial effects. This framework is applied to the study of the provincial distribution of unemployment rates in Spain. Results point to increasing spatial dependence in the distribution of regional unemployment rates, and a change in the factors causing regional differentials over the last decade.     

σ-convergence in the presence of spatial effects

Abstract.  This paper explores the implications that spatial effects can hold for the application of measures of σ -convergence. The bias of a common indicator of σ -convergence is examined for a family of spatial process models including: [a] spatial lag, [b] spatial error, and [c] spatial moving average. We show that the measure of σ -convergence is sensitive to a number of distinct influences including global dispersion, spatial dependence, and a variety of forms of spatial heterogeneity. We suggest a decomposition of the convergence indicator into two components: one reflecting global dispersion, and one reflecting the influence of spatial effects. We then illustrate this approach with a case study of the U.S. states over the 1929–2000 period.     

Migration and regional labor market adjustment: Chile 1977–1982 and 1987–1992

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the migration processes that have been occurring in Chile between 1977–1982 and 1987–1992, as a market mechanism to re-allocate labor among regions. Using traditional consumer theory, a model is developed for a migrant who is evaluating migration. Secondly, this model is estimated, with cross section aggregate data, for both periods using a logit formulation. The results indicate that there is a strong force in the Chilean regional labor market, which serves to concentrate the workforce around the largest populated region of the country. Finally, regional labor markets are simulated to show that migration forces are very weak to arbitrage regional wages and unemployment rate and specific policy is required to promote balanced development across Chilean regions. Received: January 1999/Accepted: August 2001     

Inferring migration flows from the migration propensities of infants: Mexico and Indonesia

The need for methods of indirectly estimating migration flows is particularly important in developing countries, where migration data are often incomplete and inaccurate. This paper focuses on the use of an indirect internal migration estimation method applied to Mexican and Indonesian census data. It shows that the mobility propensities of infants can be used to infer the corresponding propensities of all other age groups. However, the promise of this method is reduced in instances of inadequate data, and great care must be taken to identify outlying values in the data and to correct obviously erroneous patterns. Future work increasingly will be directed to this issue.     

Regional labour market dynamics in the Netherlands

This article analyzes the response of regional labor markets in the Netherlands to region-specific labor demand shocks. Previous studies show remarkable differences in response between regions in European countries and regions in the United States. The analysis shows that, in Dutch regions, the speed of adjustment is similar to that of the US, but the primary adjustment mechanism is the same as in Europe. Whereas previous studies analyze only average patterns of all regions in a country, we also provide a more in-depth analysis of within country differences in labor market adjustment processes, thus showing remarkable differences between regions within the Netherlands.     

Local human capital,segregation by skill,and skill‐specific employment growth*

Labour markets in most highly developed countries are marked by rising levels of segregation by skill and increasing inequality in skill‐specific employment prospects. However, analyses on regional employment growth by different skill levels are scarce and empirical evidence on the possible effects of skill segregation is lacking. By applying regional and firm‐level data for West Germany, this analysis provides new evidence for the adverse effects of skill segregation on low‐skilled employment growth. Furthermore, the findings reveal that a large share of local high‐skilled employment does not foster regional concentration of human capital, but ameliorates the employment prospects of less skilled workers. Resumen. Los mercados laborales de los países más desarrollados están marcados por un aumento en las tasas de segregación por cualificaciones y una mayor desigualdad en las perspectivas de empleo de acuerdo a talentos específicos. Sin embargo, han sido pocos los análisis de crecimiento regional del empleo realizados de acuerdo a niveles diferentes de cualificación y escasean las pruebas empíricas sobre los posibles efectos de la segregación por talentos específicos. Mediante la aplicación de datos regionales y a escala de empresa para Alemania Occidental, este análisis aporta nuevas pruebas de los efectos adversos de la segregación por talentos en el crecimiento del empleo de baja cualificación. Además, los resultados revelan que gran parte del empleo local altamente cualificado no fomenta una concentración regional de capital humano, pero mejora las perspectivas de empleo de trabajadores menos cualificados.      

Examining geographic and occupational mobility: A loglinear modelling approach

Abstract.  This article attempts to develop a set of loglinear models that synthesise gravity models of interregional mobility and loglinear models of occupational mobility. The development of the model is progressed from a simple two-way mobility table analysis to a three-way analysis that controls for one aspect of mobility while investigating another and eventually to a four-way analysis that simultaneously assesses the joint effect of occupational and geographic mobility. An example based on data from the 1970 United States census demonstrates that the models can effectively capture the joint effect of occupational and geographic mobility. The results show that interregional movers may not necessarily have strong occupational persistence. With regard to female dominated clerical occupations, interregional migration is positively associated with upward occupational mobility, and the propensity for upward mobility was consistently greater for males than for females.     

Marshallian theory of regional agglomeration

Most models of regional agglomeration are based on the new economic geography (NEG) model in which returns to scale are pecuniary. We investigate the implications for regional agglomeration of a 'Marshallian' model in which returns to scale derive from technological externalities. Workers are assumed to have heterogeneous 'home region' preferences. The model is designed to explain how 'second nature' determines regional wage inequality and the regional distribution of economic activity. We show that agglomeration is not a necessary outcome of Marshallian externalities. However, if centrifugal or positive externalities are sufficiently strong relative to their centripetal or negative counterparts, the model generates multiple agglomerating equilibria. These equilibria multiply if, in addition, there are scale economies in amenities. A dynamic version of the model is developed in which external economies and inter-regional labour mobility grow over time. Regional wage inequality overshoots its long run equilibrium and, there is more agglomeration in the long run.