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备件需求量计算模式分析 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
科学合理地解决备件配置问题一直为人们所瞩目,如何科学地确定备件数量,备件需求量计算模型的选择尤其重要。按照备件的不同种类选择不同的计算模型,是本文的主要观点。 相似文献
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对空空导弹基层级备件的计算模型进行了研究.并通过工程实例,对基层可更换单元弹上机电分系统级备件的计算模型进行分析,提出应按正态分布模型进行空空导弹分系统级备件计算的结论. 相似文献
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备件库存消耗预测是多因素综合影响下的非线性、小样本预测问题,且不同备件消耗的影响因素有所差异。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于灰色关联分析和支持向量机回归相结合的备件库存消耗预测方法。首先利用灰色关联分析计算出各影响因子与备件库存消耗的灰色关联度,量化了各因子对备件库存消耗的影响程度;再将筛选出的主因子作为支持向量机的输入,并利用遗传算法对支持向量机参数进行寻优,避免人为选择参数的盲目性,从而有针对性地对机体不同备件进行预测。最后,通过实证分析,验证了该方法应用于备件库存消耗预测的有效性和优越性,预测精度高于传统的备件预测模型。 相似文献
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研究装备备件需求计算方法,为某自行火炮火控系统备件保障提供决策依据。通过研究备件在装备保障中的重要性,分析了影响装备备件需求的因素,讨论了基于贝叶斯的某自行火炮火控系统的备件需求计算法。从而得出了基于贝叶斯的某自行火炮火控系统备件需求预测计算模型。对于随机波动、变化相对稳定的指标,用贝叶斯模型预测是比较精确的,在实际工作中具有可行性。 相似文献
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冯玉姣 《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2012,30(5):28-33
针对非指数分布串联系统的备件配置问题,首先根据指数分布的良好特性,建立指数分布串联系统的备件需求预测和配置模型;然后根据期望累积失效相等的原则,将非指数分布等效成指数分布。在此基础上,利用指数分布串联系统的备件模型近似地计算非指数分布串联系统的备件需求量。并以几种典型非指数分布的串联系统为例,如Weibull分布、正态分布和Gamma分布,分别给出了给定时间内的备件配置结果。通过Monte-Carlo模拟仿真,结果表明比实际略偏保守,且与经典方法相比,具有计算过程简单,预测时间更长与可操作性更强的优点,满足实际的保障要求,能够为工程应用带来方便。 相似文献
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准确的备件库存量预测是合理有效地进行备件保障等各项综合保障工作的基础。为了实现装备备件的精确化保障,提高保障效率,降低保障成本,介绍了一种根据部件的维修性、可靠性参数确定备件储备量的解析算法模型。基于Exspect平台实现了Petri网对一次任务的仿真算法,求出了备件储备量,并对不同的备件保障方案进行了对比,采用逐个对比的方法得出库存量的最优值。通过最后的计算实例,对仿真方法进行备件储备量确定的可行性进行了验证。 相似文献
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备件需求量计算模型及其在地面雷达中的应用 总被引:16,自引:3,他引:13
提供了4种寿命分布件备件需求量计算模型,分别是指数寿命件、威布尔寿命件、正 态寿命件、战伤件二项分布计算模型。并给出了在地面雷达备件供应中的应用示例。 相似文献
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Logistics Availability (AL), the probability that a system is not in a spares delay downstate at any instant of time, is a basic element of Operational Availability. Formulas for AL for serial systems of assemblies are derived. Each assembly has exponential times to failure and is supported by a spares inventory that is either periodically resupplied or resupplied as-needed (an order is placed following each failure which requires a spare to restore the system). The formulas depend upon the reliability of the operating assemblies, the specified number of spares in the full-up inventory, the usual resupply times, and the constant spares delay downtime for failures that occur when there are no spares in the inventory. These formulas for AL can be used in well-known integer optimizing processes to select the spares quantities for the site inventory and/or to determine acceptable resupply periods and spares delay downtime, in addition to assessing AL. 相似文献
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This paper presents work in analyzing the combined spares provisioning implementation for depot and sub-depots. A method was developed for obtaining the minimum number of depot plus sub-depot spares. Not only is the number of spares important, but their cost as well. In order for the sub-depot model to achieve the savings in spares, a large number of depots (depots plus sub-depots) will be required than is required by the depot model, but the total capacity of this larger number of depots will be less than the capacity of the depots using the simple depot model. Therefore, one must not only study the numbers of spares and their cost, but must also account for the cost of the depots and sub-depots in order to truly optimize the design. 相似文献
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备件保障性的综合与分配模型 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
丁定浩 《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2006,24(2):1-6
备件保障性是装备战备完好性的重要因素。首次给出了备件保障性的综合和分配模型。为系统备件保障性预计和设计创造了前提条件。同时为完善系统的战备完好性的工程设计奠定基础。 相似文献
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基于战备完好性的初始备件供应保障Monte-Carlo仿真 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
备件需求量和供应时间是备件供应保障过程的核心问题。按照战备完好性要求,建立了使用可用度与备件保障概率关系模型。采用Mento-Carlo法,对以战备完好性为中心的备件需求量、平均后勤延误及备件短缺风险进行了仿真,仿真结果对提高部队的综合保障能力,确定影响初始备件供应的原因具有指导作用。 相似文献
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The problem of allocating spares to remote machines is examined. No reallocation of the spares between machines is possible, and the life distribution of each spare depends upon the machine on which it is used. The machines are subsystems of a system whose useful life terminates in a finite, but random, amount of time (e.g., from a catastrophe or obsolescence), or when a machine depletes its store of spares. An efficient algorithm determines the allocation of spares that maximizes the minimum probability of a machine depleting its spares before the system's useful life terminates. These results are extended to the case when the spares are divisible. An example illustrates the results 相似文献
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A technique is developed for finding the time dependent operating probabilities used by reliability systems designers for provisioning a system with N + k identical units, k of which are called spares and N called operating units, and s repair facilities. System failure occurs when less than N units are operational. Units fail with exponential interfailure times and are repaired with exponential service time. Idle spares fail due to deterioration at a rate possibly different from that of the operating units. Graphs are presented which show the minimum numbers of spares needed to achieve system reliabilities of 0.90 and 0.99 as a function of time. The technique is applicable for finding, numerically, the first passage time distribution for any system modeled by birth and death processes. 相似文献