Double dividend effectiveness of energy tax policies and the elasticity of substitution: A CGE appraisal

There is a considerable body of literature that has studied whether or not an adequately designed tax swap, whereby an ecotax is levied and some other tax is reduced while keeping government income constant, may achieve a so-called double dividend, that is, an increase in environmental quality and an increase in overall efficiency. Arguments in favor and against are abundant. Our position is that the issue should be empirically studied starting from an actual, non-optimal tax system structure and by way of checking the responsiveness of equilibria to revenue neutral tax regimes under alternate scenarios regarding technological substitution. With the use of a CGE model, we find that the most critical elasticity for achieving a double dividend is the substitution elasticity between labor and capital whereas the elasticity that would generate the highest reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is the substitution elasticity among energy goods.     

Analyzing carbon pricing policies using a general equilibrium model with production parameters estimated using firm data

Policy simulation results of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models largely hinge on the choices of substitution elasticities among key input factors. Currently, most CGE models rely on the common elasticities estimated from aggregated data, such as the GTAP model elasticity parameters. Using firm level data, we apply the control function method to estimate CES production functions with capital, labor and energy inputs and find significant heterogeneity in substitution elasticities across different industries. Our capital-labor substitution elasticities are much lower than the GTAP values while our energy elasticities are higher. We then incorporate these estimated elasticities into a CGE model to simulate China's carbon pricing policies and compare with the results using GTAP parameters. Our less elastic K-L substitution leads to lower base case GDP growth, but our more elastic energy substitution lead to lower coal use and carbon emissions. In the carbon tax policy exercises, we find that our elasticities lead to easier reductions in coal use and carbon emissions.     

Reevaluating the first and the second dividends of environmental tax reforms

There is increasing global interest in market-based climate change policies following the last elections in the United States. In this context an Exxon Mobil chief executive came out in favour of a carbon tax. This paper is concerned with the welfare analysis of Environmental Tax Reforms (ETR), and takes up the claims for the need of an unambiguous and operative definition of the double dividend both for empirical purposes and political advisement. In this paper, we contest the usual definition of the second dividend and its assimilation to an “efficiency dividend”. We propose alternative definitions by suggesting a different splitting of the total welfare variation between the first and the second dividend in order to isolate the efficiency effects of the ETR. The new definitions become clearly understandable and easy for economic and policy interpretation. Concepts like “weak” and “strong” double dividend turn out to be unnecessary. Finally, we analyze ETR for the US economy to illustrate the advantages of the proposed definitions for policy implementation.     

Input substitution in Thailand's manufacturing sector: Implications for energy policy

Input demand and substitution elasticities for five manufacturing sector industries in Thailand are estimated using a three-factor (capital, labour and energy) translog cost function covering the first oil-shock period 1974–1977. In all cases the demand is elastic for energy, close to unity for labour, and inelastic for capital. Capital and energy are always substitutes as are capital and labour. The labour-intensive and comparative- advantage-based industries showed greater responsiveness to energy price changes relative to the capital-intensive and protected industries in the sense that the former two can substitute capital and labour for energy whereas the latter two can substitute only capital.     

Inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution,carbon intensity,and energy-related CO2 reduction: Empirical evidence from China

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction, which is the central issue in addressing global warming, depends on the extent that clean energy can substitute for CO₂ emitting coal and non-energy factors can substitute for energy factor. The purposes of this paper are to empirically investigate inter-factor/inter-fuel substitution in China and to evaluate the determinants of China's energy-related carbon intensity as well as mitigation effects of carbon tax. Considering China's rapid increase in energy consumption and the slow adjustment in substitution, the two-stage estimation method and the dynamic error correction mechanism are employed in this study. The empirical results suggest substitutability among different types of energy sources as well as substitutability among energy, labor, and capital. The magnitude of cross-price elasticities indicates that the substitutions are inelastic, which limits the scope of the Chinese government to implement substitution strategy aiming at energy conservation and environmental management. China's carbon intensity declined during 1985–2012, most of which can be attributed to labor substitution and energy price increase. However, carbon-intensive technology being embodied in China's capital investment (energy consuming equipment) has contributed to the increase in carbon intensity. A carbon tax of RMB 50/tonne could reduce 332.9 million tonnes CO₂ emissions on the basis of 2012. In addition, if ignoring the feedback between inter-factor/inter-fuel substitutions, CO₂ mitigation potential would be underestimated.     

Are green hopes too rosy? Employment and welfare impacts of renewable energy promotion

In view of pressing unemployment problems, policy makers across all parties jump on the prospects of renewable energy promotion as a job creation engine which can boost economic well-being. Our analytical model shows that initial labor market rigidities in theory provide some scope for such a double dividend. However, the practical outcome of renewable energy promotion might be sobering. Our computable general equilibrium analysis of subsidized electricity production from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in Germany suggests that the prospects for employment and welfare gains are quite limited and hinge crucially on the level of the subsidy rate and the financing mechanism. If RES-E subsidies are financed by labor taxes, welfare and employment effects are strictly negative for a broad range of subsidy rates. The use of an electricity tax to fund RES-E subsidies generates minor benefits for small subsidy rates but these benefits quickly turn into significant losses as the subsidy rate exceeds some threshold value.     

Avoiding adverse employment effects from electricity taxation in Norway: What does it cost?

Welfare analyses of energy taxes typically show that systems with uniform rates perform better than differentiated systems. However, most western countries include some exemptions for their energy-intensive export industries and thereby avoid this potential welfare gain. Böhringer and Rutherford (1997) find that uniform taxation of carbon emissions in combination with a wage subsidy preserves jobs in these industries at a lower welfare cost compared with a differentiated system. The wage subsidy scheme generates a substantial welfare gain per job saved. This study, however, finds that welfare costs are substantial when less accurate policy measures, represented by production-dependent subsidies, protect jobs in Norwegian electricity-intensive industries. The welfare cost per job preserved by this subsidy scheme amounts to approximately 60% of the wage cost per job, suggesting that these jobs are expensive to preserve. A uniform electricity tax combined with production-dependent subsidies preserves jobs at a lower welfare cost compared with the current differentiated electricity tax system.     

Gradual green tax reforms

Green tax reforms have become an important tool not only in protecting the environment but also in bringing about a more efficient tax system. However, reforms often imply accepting sacrifices in the short-run and bring about the risk of potential political opposition. Within this framework, the debate on whether to implement green tax reforms in one-step or gradually becomes of great interest. In this paper, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the Spanish economy, to evaluate different reforms that consist in increasing energy taxes and adjusting capital taxation in a revenue-neutral framework. Our findings show that, although an environmental dividend is always granted, the existence of an efficiency dividend depends on the type of reform, its size and how gradually it is implemented. Thus, one-step reforms that produce an efficiency dividend would imply large efficiency costs in the short-run. In this case, the reform could only produce efficiency gains in the short-run if it is implemented gradually, although such gains would end up disappearing in the long-run.     

Carbon tariffs and cooperative outcomes

In the absence of an international environmental agreement (IEA) on climate change, a country may be reluctant to unilaterally implement environmental actions, as this may lead to the relocation of firms to other, lax-on-pollution countries. To avoid this problem, while still taking care of the environment, a country may impose a carbon tariff that adjusts for the differences between its own carbon tax and the other country's tax. We consider two countries with a representative firm in each one, and characterize and contrast the equilibrium strategies and outcomes in three scenarios. In the first (benchmark) scenario, in a first stage the regulators in the two countries determine the carbon taxes noncooperatively, and in a second stage, the firms compete à la Cournot. In the second scenario, the regulators cooperate in determining the carbon taxes, while the firms still play a noncooperative Cournot game. In the third scenario, we add another player, e.g., the World Trade Organization, which announced a border tax in a prior stage; the game is then played as in the first scenario. Our two major results are (i) a border-tax adjustment (BTA) mimics quite well the cooperative solution in setting the carbon taxes as in scenario two. This means that a BTA may be a way around the lack of enthusiasm for an IEA. (ii) All of our simulations show that a partial correction of the difference in taxes is sufficient to maximize total welfare. In short, the conclusion is that a BTA may be used as a credible threat to achieve an outcome that is very close to the cooperative outcome.     

The incidence of fuel taxation in India

Fuel taxes have returned to centre stage as a potential policy instrument for greenhouse gas abatement. On the basis of some studies in developed countries, critics have complained that a fuel tax would be regressive. This paper uses data from a representative household survey covering more than 124 thousand Indian households to examine this claim. It finds that a fuel tax would be progressive as would a carbon tax. Using an input–output approach, it is found that the progressivity results holds good even when one considers indirect consumption of fuel through its use as an intermediate input. Sensitivity checks allowing for differing price elasticities of demand between rich and poor confirm this result for most of fuels. A tax on kerosene is the only fuel tax that is regressive in all situations.     

Output-based allocations and revenue recycling: Implications for the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is more comprehensive in its coverage of emissions than schemes introduced or proposed to date in any other country in that it includes agricultural greenhouse gases, which account for half of New Zealand’s total emissions. But, motivated by concerns for the international competitiveness of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industrial and agricultural activities, current legislation provides for substantial ongoing free allocations to such activities, linked to their output. Here we use a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the impacts of output-based allocation, given the possibility of recycling net revenues to reduce prior distorting taxes. Unlike previous modelling studies of alternative NZ ETS designs, we allow for a more realistic modelling both of capital and labour supply. We find that, as suggested by theoretical results, interactions between the ETS and existing taxes are important. Given any level of output-based allocation, the negative macroeconomic impacts can be reduced by recycling net revenues as efficiently as possible. Less obviously, we find that there may be an optimal non-zero level of output-based allocation. This optimal level increases as the carbon price and/or factor supply elasticities increase, but decreases if revenues are recycled with greater efficiency.     

Atmospheric externalities and environmental taxation

The paper reviews the theory of environmental taxation under first best and second best conditions. It argues that negative environmental externalities lead to reductions of the provision of public goods, while investment in abatement increases the supply of public goods. Together with optimal tax rules, the paper therefore also derives conditions for the optimal use of resources on abatement. After brief discussions of the dimensions of time and uncertainty, tax reform and the double dividend, and taxes vs. quotas, the optimal tax model is applied to the problem of global warming with a discussion of the particular incentive problems that arise in designing and implementing global climate policy.     

Implementing a double dividend: recycling ecotaxes towards lower labour taxes

In this paper, we follow the tradition of applied general equilibrium modelling of the Walrasian static variety to study the empirical viability of a double dividend (green, welfare, and employment) in the Spanish economy. We consider a counterfactual scenario in which an ecotax is levied on the intermediate and final use of energy goods. Under a revenue neutral assumption, we evaluate the real income and employment impact of lowering payroll taxes. To appraise to what extent the model structure and behavioural assumptions may influence the results, we perform simulations under a range of alternative model and policy scenarios. We conclude that a double dividend—better environmental quality, as measured by reduced CO₂ emissions, and improved levels of employment—may be an achievable goal of economic policy.     

Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis

Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb–Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy.     

Lifecycle economic analysis of biofuels: Accounting for economic substitution in policy assessment

This paper develops a lifecycle economic analysis (LCEA) model that integrates endogenous input substitution into the standard lifecycle analysis (LCA) of biofuel that typically assumes fixed-proportions production. We use the LCEA model to examine impacts of a pure carbon tax and a revenue-neutral tax-subsidy policy on lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from cellulosic ethanol using forest residues as feedstock in Washington State. In a model allowing for input substitution in the cellulosic ethanol feedstock, conversion, and transportation process, we consider energy source substitution (woody biomass for coal in the cellulosic ethanol conversion plant and biodiesel for diesel in feedstock production and feedstock and ethanol transportation) as well as substitution of capital and labor for energy in all stages of the lifecycle. We find that ignoring endogenous input substitution by using standard LCA leads to substantial underestimation of the impact of carbon tax policies on carbon emissions. Both tax policies can substantially reduce carbon emissions by inducing substitution among inputs. The revenue-neutral tax-subsidy policy reduces emissions more effectively than the carbon tax policy for carbon tax rates currently in place throughout most of the world. It stimulates substitution of woody biomass for coal and biodiesel for diesel at much lower tax rates when accompanied by corresponding subsidies for reduced emissions from renewable sources.     

Energy taxes as a signaling device: An empirical analysis of consumer preferences

This paper presents an econometric study dealing with household demand in Sweden. The main objective is to empirically examine the differences in consumer reaction to the introduction of, or the change, in environmental taxes. Main focus is on environmental taxes as a signaling device. The hypothesis is that the introduction of an environmental tax provides new information about the properties of the directly taxed goods. This in turn may affect consumer preferences for these goods, hence altering the consumption choice. The result from the econometric analysis shows that all goods have negative own-price elasticities, and positive income elasticities. Concerning the signalling effect of environmental taxes the results are somewhat ambiguous. The tax elasticity for energy goods used for heating seems to be significantly higher than the traditional price elasticity, whereas the opposite seems to be the case for energy goods used for transportation.     

Biofuel subsidies versus the gas tax: The carrot or the stick?

This paper provides an analytical framework to examine the relative efficiencies of a revenue-neutral biofuel subsidy and a gas tax in the presence of pre-existing distortions and growing substitutability between fuels. Both policies are set to achieve a targeted reduction in gasoline use at the state level. The model is then calibrated for a small open economy such as Illinois which is one of the largest producers of biofuels such as ethanol in the U.S. The main result of the paper shows that raising the biofuel subsidy use reduces overall welfare by more than a higher gas tax, both aimed to achieve a targeted reduction in pure gasoline. The relative efficiency of the higher gas tax is primarily due to it exacerbating the pre-existing distortion in the biofuel market by less than the subsidy. Moreover, for current parameter estimates welfare improving policy combinations for achieving a targeted amount of energy security are higher gas taxes combined with lower biofuel subsidies and a lower tax on income. However, the preference for a gasoline–labor tax swap shrinks as the elasticity of substitution between the two fuels rises.     

Restricted carbon emissions and directed R&D support; an applied general equilibrium analysis

We analyse welfare effects of supporting general versus emission-saving technological development when carbon emissions are regulated by a carbon tax. We use a computable general equilibrium model with induced technological change (ITC). ITC is driven by two separate, economically motivated research and development (R&D) activities, one general and one emission-saving specified as carbon capture and storage (CCS). We study public revenue neutral policy alternatives targeted towards general R&D and CCS R&D. Support to general R&D is the welfare superior. However, the welfare gap between the two R&D policy alternatives is reduced with higher carbon tax levels. For sufficiently high levels of the carbon tax equal subsidy rates are preferred.     

Can a carbon permit system reduce Spanish unemployment?

This paper analyses the impact of carbon policy on unemployment in Spain and whether recycling the public revenues earned from permit auctions can alleviate this problem. While Spain's deviation from the European Union's intermediate emission goals is more serious than most other member countries' unemployment in Spain is also well above average for the European Union. We use a computable general equilibrium model that includes unemployment in the markets for unskilled and skilled labour. We find that introducing carbon permits does not aggravate Spanish unemployment. In fact, if supplied with revenue recycling schemes, unemployment rates may actually fall. Contrary to other European studies, we find that the best option is to reduce payroll taxes on relatively skilled types of labour. This reform is successful in both increasing labour demand and dampening the supply response to rising wages. However, while all of the recycling schemes generate dividends in terms of aggregate welfare, none entirely offsets the abatement costs.     

“Investments and public finance in a green,low carbon,economy”

The paper evaluates the impacts on investments and public finance of a transition to a green, low carbon, economy induced by carbon taxation. Four global tax scenarios are examined using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Taxes are levied on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and lead to global GHG concentrations equal to 680, 560, 500 and 460 ppm CO₂-eq in 2100. Investments in the power sector increase with respect to the Reference scenario only with the two highest taxes. Investments in energy-related R&D increase in all tax scenarios, but they are a small fraction of GDP. Investments in oil upstream decline in all scenarios. As a result, total investments decline with respect to the Reference scenario. Carbon tax revenues are high in absolute terms and as share of GDP. With high carbon taxes, tax revenues follow a “carbon Laffer” curve. The model assumes that tax revenues are flawlessly recycled lump-sum into the economy. In all scenarios, the power sector becomes a net recipient of subsidies to support the absorption of GHGs. In some regions, with high carbon taxes, subsidies to GHG removal are higher than tax revenues at the end of the century.