Downstream regulation of CO2 emissions in California's electricity sector

This paper examines the implications of alternative forms of cap-and-trade regulations on the California electricity market. Specific focus is given to the implementation of a downstream form of regulation known as the first-deliverer policy. Under this policy, importers (i.e., first-deliverers) of electricity into California are responsible for the emissions associated with the power plants from which the power originated, even if those plants are physically located outside of California. We find that, absent strict non-economic barriers to changing import patterns, such policies are extremely vulnerable to reshuffling of import resources. The net impact implies that the first-deliverer policies will be only marginally more effective than a conventional source-based regulation.     

Supply curve bidding of electricity in constrained power networks

This paper presents a Supply Curve Bidding (SCB) approach that complies with the notion of the Standard Market Design (SMD) in electricity markets. The approach considers the demand-side option and Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) clearing. It iteratively alters Supply Function Equilibria (SFE) model solutions, then choosing the best bid based on market-clearing LMP and network conditions. It has been argued that SCB better benefits suppliers compared to fixed quantity-price bids. It provides more flexibility and better opportunity to achieving profitable outcomes over a range of demands. In addition, SCB fits two important criteria: simplifies evaluating electricity derivatives and captures smooth marginal cost characteristics that reflect actual production costs. The simultaneous inclusion of physical unit constraints and transmission security constraints will assure a feasible solution. An IEEE 24-bus system is used to illustrate perturbations of SCB in constrained power networks within the framework of SDM. By searching in the neighborhood of SFE model solutions, suppliers can obtain their best bid offers based on market-clearing LMP and network conditions. In this case, electricity producers can derive their best offering strategy both in the power exchange and the long-term contractual markets within a profitable, yet secure electricity market.     

Carbon intensity of electricity in ASEAN: Drivers,performance and outlook

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with its ten member countries, has a total population exceeding 600 million. Its energy-related CO₂ emissions have been growing and in 2013 amounted to 3.6% of total global emissions. About 40% of ASEAN's energy-related CO₂ emissions are currently attributable to electricity production. In view of this high share, we study the CO₂ emissions of ASEAN's electricity production sector with a focus on the aggregate emission intensity (ACI) given by the level of CO₂ emissions for each unit of electricity produced. Drivers of ACI are analysed for individual countries and spatial analysis is conducted by comparing factors contributing to differences between the ACIs of individual countries and that of the ASEAN average. Arising from these analyses and in light of the current developments, it is concluded that drastic actions need to be taken both at the national and regional levels in order to reduce growth in the region's electricity-related CO₂ emissions. Two key policy issues, namely overcoming national circumstances to improve electricity generation mix and improving power generation efficiency, are further discussed.     

Temporal carbon intensity analysis: renewable versus fossil fuel dominated electricity systems

In order to overcome the negative effects of climate change and ensure a global low-carbon future, decarbonizing the electricity sector has been recognized as an important focus area. Internationally, policymakers use average carbon intensity (in gCO₂-e/kWh) in calculating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the electricity system. However, average carbon intensity is a single rate and a fixed quantity; thus, it does not provide any information about the time-varying nature of carbon intensity. The focus of this paper is to show the usefulness of time-varying carbon intensity estimation, which can provide detailed insights into GHG emissions, and help in identifying potential emission cut opportunities from the electricity sector in order to lessen atmospheric pollution. Time-varying carbon intensity estimation (i) reveals temporal variability of carbon intensity, (ii) explores the interplay between generations and emissions, (iii) identifies peak carbon-intensive hours, and (iv) provides evidence for designing appropriate demand-side management strategies with respect to GHG emission reduction.     

Carbon intensity of electricity generation and CDM baseline: case studies of three Chinese provinces

A difficult and persistent issue in the discussion of Clean Development Mechanism is estimating a carbon emissions baseline, against which tradable permits may be certified. This paper examines the proposition of adopting sectoral, as opposed to project level, baselines by conducting case studies of the electricity industry in three Chinese provinces. We find that complicated central planning, financial and institutional factors have been behind the declining trend of carbon intensity in electricity generation and its provincial variations. Government planned electricity development which incorporates many of these factors and the associated industry carbon intensity may serve as a second best baseline. However, the limitation of the baseline we examine in this study plus difficulties numerous studies have revealed in baseline setting suggests that using baselines based on counterfactuals of what would happen will in the end either miss good emission reduction opportunities, or compromise the integrity of the regime.     

Which goals are driving the Energiewende? Making sense of the German Energy Transformation

In 2010, Germany agreed a plan to increase the share of renewables in power consumption to 80% by 2050, and in 2011 the decision was taken to phase-out nuclear power by 2022. This policy is now widely known as the “Energiewende”. While many global observers consider this program to be primarily driven by the need to tackle climate change, the precise political goals of the Energiewende are, by and large, unclear. In our study we compiled a list of 14 goals put forward in political debates and conducted a “mapping” survey among more than 50 policy experts. We asked them to prioritize the goals based on their personal views and provide arguments for their rankings in ensuing interviews. Our main findings are as follows: (i) a large majority named climate protection among the top-level goals of the Energiewende; at the same time, around 80% of all participants also identified additional goals; (ii) when asked if the Energiewende would make sense even if climate change did not exist, two thirds of the participants agreed, which, when taken with the first finding, demonstrates that the goals and motivations driving the Energiewende are more complex than often assumed. We conclude that for the sake of effective and efficient policies and ever rising climate policy ambition, a public debate and clear specification of the top-level goals are indispensable.     

Making the connection: The relationship between fuel poverty,electricity disconnection,and prepayment metering

Fuel poverty, or inability to afford adequate heating for a reasonable outlay of expenditure, is a significant and under-researched problem in New Zealand. The connection between fuel poverty, and electricity disconnection or ‘self-disconnection’ is analysed for four cities using prepayment metering to pay for electricity. A price comparison analysis on a government-sponsored website showed that prepayment metering was more expensive than other payment options. This website analysis was supplemented by qualitative data from older people with chronic respiratory disease expressing their views about electricity disconnection and prepayment metering. We show that prepayment metering for electricity is more expensive than other payment methods in New Zealand and that older people’s insights provide valuable context to these issues. Under the present payment schedule, the use of prepayment metering to pay for electricity is not a suitable policy instrument to address fuel poverty, which remains problematic. The deregulated electricity market continues to lead to increases in the real price of residential electricity and in the number of people in fuel poverty. We offer policy suggestions for reducing fuel poverty in New Zealand.     

Analysis of aggregate electricity intensity change of the Jordanian industrial sector using decomposition technique

This study analyzes changes in industrial aggregate electricity intensity, during the period 1998–2005, and identifies major factors affecting the aggregate electricity intensity change using the refined Laspeyers method decomposition technique. The Jordanian industrial sector was disaggregated into seven groups: mining of chemical and fertilizers, paper, plastics, petrochemical, cement, steel and others industries. Aggregate electricity intensity has decreased from approximately 1.30 to 0.93 kWh USThis study analyzes changes in industrial aggregate electricity intensity, during the period 1998–2005, and identifies major factors affecting the aggregate electricity intensity change using the refined Laspeyers method decomposition technique. The Jordanian industrial sector was disaggregated into seven groups: mining of chemical and fertilizers, paper, plastics, petrochemical, cement, steel and others industries. Aggregate electricity intensity has decreased from approximately 1.30 to 0.93 kWh US$^?1 in 1998 and 2005, respectively. The analysis showed that the structural and efficiency effects contribute to decreases of around 21 and 79%, respectively, of total aggregate electricity intensity decline in the industrial sector. Such result is considered of high importance for energy and/or electricity analysts and planners, in Jordan and other countries, especially for the purpose of forecasting future demand more logically and without unnecessary exaggerations. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The changes in coal intensity of electricity generation in Chinese coal-fired power plants

In recent years, the coal intensity of electricity generation and its change rate over time has varied significantly across coal-fired power plants in China. This paper decomposes the coal intensity change into four components: technological catch-up, technological progress, change in capital-coal ratio, and change in labor-coal ratio. We find that technological catch-up is the most important factor in decreasing mean coal intensity in the plants between 2009 and 2012. It is also the main driver of heterogeneity in coal intensity changes across different groups of the plants.     

Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform

The Australian electricity industry has undergone a significant reform, since the mid-1990s. Key changes comprised functional unbundling, market restructuring, regulatory reform, public corporatisation and privatisation. Technological development has been another indisputable constituent of these changes, in the wake of ICT revolution. The principle rationale behind these changes has been that they would improve productivity of the industry and social well-being of people. This paper examines the dynamics of productivity changes in the Australian electricity industry and conducts several hypotheses-testings to identify whether industry's efficiency measures are truly improved as a result of the reform-driven changes. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Index approach and ANOVA are used for this purpose. The results reveal that the productivity gains in the industry have been largely driven by technological improvements and, to a lesser extent, by reform-induced comparative efficiency gains. On average at national level and for the entire industry, there are efficiency gains that, to large extents, can be attributed to functional unbundling and public corporatisation and, to a lesser extent, to market restructuring and privatisation. The results, however, reveal that the reform-driven changes have made insignificant contribution to comparative efficiency, at the level of thermal generation.     

Influence of growth curve phase on electricity performance of microbial fuel cell by Escherichia coli

The microbial fuel cell of Escherichia coli can convert microorganism biochemistry energy into electrical energy. To realize the influence of the growth curve phase with respect to different culture times on electricity performance, three kinds of E. coli (BCRC No. 10322, 10675, 51534) are selected, and it is both required and important to improve the performance of the microbial fuel cell (MFC). Results show that the BCRC No. 51534 of E. coli would be a better choice because a larger open-circuit voltage of 0.88 V and a limiting current of 10.1 mA possessed by it would result in an excellent power density of 547 mW/m². In addition, the selection of culture timing set as at the middle of the logarithmic phase and phase transition from logarithmic to stationary is suggested because the growth curve is suitable for electricity generation of the MFC. These observations would be useful for the improvement of the MFC.     

Making,breaking, and (partially) remaking markets: State regulation and photovoltaic electricity in New Jersey

This paper describes the development of the U.S. state of New Jersey’s policy to accelerate the growth of photovoltaic electricity generating capacity over the past ten years. It provides insights that may be of use to scholars and policy-makers who seek to understand how markets for photovoltaics and other renewable energy technologies may be created and sustained, and it adds to the growing set of detailed historical case studies on these issues. Aggressive state policy measures have put New Jersey second to California among the U.S. states in installed photovoltaic capacity. That growth was achieved in a series of stages. New Jersey initially experienced a boom and bust as generous up-front rebates catalyzed rapid growth in demand and exhausted the program’s budget. A shift in 2007 to a policy that emphasized Solar Renewable Energy Certificates failed to sustain the growth in capacity. In response, the state began to require regulated transmission and distribution utilities to provide up-front financing for photovoltaic systems. This approach has restarted the momentum of the market, but it shifts the policy’s costs into the future, while empowering a new set of players with uncertain interests over the long term.     

Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method

This study aims to estimate carbon intensity abatement potential in China at the regional level by proposing a particle swarm optimization–genetic algorithm (PSO–GA) multivariate environmental learning curve estimation method. The model uses two independent variables, namely, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, to construct carbon intensity learning curves (CILCs), i.e., CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP, of 30 provinces in China. Instead of the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) method, a PSO–GA intelligent optimization algorithm is used to optimize the coefficients of a learning curve. The carbon intensity abatement potentials of the 30 Chinese provinces are estimated via PSO–GA under the business-as-usual scenario. The estimation reveals the following results. (1) For most provinces, the abatement potentials from improving a unit of the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP are higher than the potentials from raising a unit of per capita GDP. (2) The average potential of the 30 provinces in 2020 will be 37.6% based on the emission's level of 2005. The potentials of Jiangsu, Tianjin, Shandong, Beijing, and Heilongjiang are over 60%. Ningxia is the only province without intensity abatement potential. (3) The total carbon intensity in China weighted by the GDP shares of the 30 provinces will decline by 39.4% in 2020 compared with that in 2005. This intensity cannot achieve the 40%–45% carbon intensity reduction target set by the Chinese government. Additional mitigation policies should be developed to uncover the potentials of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the simulation accuracy of the CILCs optimized by PSO–GA is higher than that of the CILCs optimized by the traditional OLS method.     

Decomposition analysis of the variations in residential electricity consumption in Brazil for the 1980–2007 period: Measuring the activity,intensity and structure effects

Introduced at the end of the 1970s to study the impacts of structural changes on electricity consumption by industry, index decomposition analysis techniques have been extended to various other areas to help in the formulation of energy policies, notably in developed countries. However, few authors have applied these techniques to study the evolution of energy consumption in developing countries. In Brazil, the few available studies have focused only on the industrial sector. In this article, we apply the decomposition technique called the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to electricity consumption of the Brazilian residential sector, to explain its evolution in terms of the activity, structure and intensity affects, over the period from 1980 to 2007. The technique is sufficiently robust and flexible to perform this analysis, by disaggregating residential consumers by consumption classes and regions of the country. Among the main results is measurement of the impact of government programs for income transfer and universal service on variations in residential consumption, typical of developing countries.     

An investigation into the potential of low head hydro power in Northern Ireland for the production of electricity

The maximum exploitable potential for low head hydroelectric sites (gross head≤10 m) in Northern Ireland (NI) was determined as 12.07 MW using a simple payback analysis for 304 potential sites investigated to derive a classification scheme in terms of economic viability. A techno-economic analysis with validated numerical models from previous research estimated the capital investment required for the development of a hydroelectric plant, using the low head Michell-Banki cross flow turbine, for the 304 sites investigated. The number of potentially viable sites in NI for low head hydro ranged from 198 to 286 with an estimated installed capacity ranging from 11.95 to 12.05 MW. Sites with a limited installed capacity were not economically viable unless increased government support in the form of longer term (25–50 years) low interest loans as well as the current (Renewables Obligations Certificates) Renewables Obligation Certificates scheme is provided and sustained.     

A global and local endogenous experience curve model for projecting future uptake and cost of electricity generation technologies

A global and local learning model (GALLM) has been developed to project the cost and global uptake of different electricity generation technologies to the year 2050. This model features three regions, endogenous technological learning within and across those regions, various government policies to facilitate technological learning and a penalty constraint which is used to mimic the effect market forces play on the capital cost of electricity generation technologies. This constraint has been added as market forces have been a strong factor in technology pricing in recent years. Global, regional and component experience curves have been developed for some technologies. The model, with the inclusion of these features, projects a diverse range of technologies contributing to global electricity generation under a carbon price scenario. The penalty constraint leads to gradual and continual installations of technologies and because the constraint provides a disincentive to install too much of a technology, it reduces the impact of uncertainty in the learning rate. Alternative forms of the penalty constraint were tested for their suitability; it was found that, with a zero and lower-cost version of the constraint, photovoltaics are installed in a boom-and-bust cycle, which is not supported by past experience. When the constraint is set at a high level, there are fewer installations.     

Robust portfolio optimization for electricity planning: An application based on the Brazilian electricity mix

One of the major challenges of today's policy makers and industry strategists is to achieve an electricity mix that presents a high level of energy security within a range of affordable costs and environmental constraints. Bearing in mind the planning of a more reliable electricity mix, the main contribution of this paper is to consider parameter uncertainties on the electricity portfolio optimization problem. We assume that the expected and the covariance matrix of the costs for the different energy technologies, such as gas, coal, nuclear, oil, biomass, wind, large and small hydropower, are not exactly known. We consider that these parameters belong to some uncertainty sets (box, ellipsoidal, lower and upper bounds, and convex polytopic). Three problems are analyzed: (i) finding a energy portfolio of minimum worst case volatility with guaranteed fixed maximum expected energy cost; (ii) finding an energy portfolio of minimum worst case expected cost with guaranteed fixed maximum volatility of the energy cost; (iii) finding a combination of the expected and variance of the cost, weighted by a risk aversion parameter. These problems are written as quadratic, second order cone programming (SOCP), and semidefinite programming (SDP), so that robust optimization tools can be applied. These results are illustrated by analyzing the efficient Brazilian electricity energy mix considered in Losekann et al. (2013) assuming possible uncertainties in the vector of expected costs and covariance matrix. The results suggest that the robust approach, being by nature more conservative, can be useful in providing a reasonable electricity energy mix conciliating CO₂ emission, risk and costs under uncertainties on the parameters of the model.     

Rural electricity in the Philippines: Planning issues

The government of the Philippines is committed to reducing the country's dependence on imported oil. An element in its plan to accomplish this goal is the generation of electricity using indigenous energy sources — wood/ biomass, hydro, geothermal and coal. Wood-fired generation in the Philippines has drawn worldwide attention from other developing countries interested in embarking on similar programmes. This investigation reveals the difficulties inherent in implementing such a programme. Primary concerns include the institutional issues in the generation and distribution of power by the National Power Corporation (NPC), the National Electrification Administration (NEA), the rural electric cooperatives (RECs) and the tree farmer associations (TFAs), the influence of demand patterns on the financial viability of rural electric cooperatives, and the influence of low load factors, small size and remote locations on the cost of dendro thermal power plants. The conclusions s should be of interest to other countries interested in pursuing similar programmes.