Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development

To address the impaired condition of the water bodies listed under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act, over 40 000 total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for pollutants must be developed during the next 10-15 years. Most of these will be based on the results of water quality simulation models. However, the failure of most models to incorporate residual variability and parameter uncertainty in their predictions makes them unsuitable for TMDL development. The percentile-based standards increasingly used by the EPA and the requirement for a margin of safety in TMDLs necessitate that model predictions include quantitative information on uncertainty. We describe a probabilistic approach to model-based TMDL assessment that addresses this issue and is suitable for use with any type of mathematical model. To demonstrate our approach, we employ a eutrophication model for the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, and evaluate compliance with the state chlorophyll a standard. Any observed variability in chlorophyll athatis notexplained bythe model is explicitly incorporated via a residual error term. This probabilistic term captures the effects of any processes that are not considered in the model and allows for direct assessment of the frequency of standard violations. Additionally, by estimating and propagating the effects of parameter uncertainty on model predictions, we are able to provide an explicit basis for choosing a TMDL that includes a margin of safety. We conclude by discussing the potential for models currently supported by the EPA to be adapted to provide the type of probabilistic information that is necessary to support TMDL decisions.     

Opportunities for Reducing Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Compliance Costs: Lessons from the Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program is an unprecedented opportunity to restore the Chesapeake Bay, yet program costs threaten to undermine its complete implementation. Analyses of Bay TMDL program design and implementation were used to relate program cost-effectiveness to choices in (1) compliance definitions, (2) geographic load allocations, and (3) approaches to engaging unregulated sources. A key finding was that many design choices require choosing an acceptable level of risk of achieving water quality outcomes, and a lack of data can lead to precautionary choices, which increase compliance costs. Furthermore, although some choices managed costs, others decisions may have reduced the potential for cost savings from water quality trading and payment programs. In particular, the choice by some states to distribute the portion of load reductions that improve water quality in the Bay mainstem to many small basins is likely to diminish the potential for market development or reduce funding for the most cost-effective nutrient and sediment reduction practices. Strategies for reducing costs of future TMDLs include considering diminishing marginal returns early in the TMDL design to balance costs and risks in regulatory goal setting and to design rules and incentives that promote innovation and cost-effective compliance strategies.     

Assessing TMDL effectiveness using flow-adjusted concentrations: a case study of the Neuse River,North Carolina

Integrated control of both point and nonpoint source water pollution using Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) assignments will be a major regulatory focus over the next decade. We propose the use of "flow-adjusted" pollutant concentrations to evaluate the effectiveness of management actions taken to meet approved TMDLs. Pollutant concentrations are usually highly correlated with streamflow, and flow is strongly weather-dependent. Thus, pollutant loads, which are calculated as pollutant concentration multiplied by streamflow, have a large weather-dependent variance component. This natural variation can be removed by calculating flow-adjusted concentrations. While such values are not a direct measure of pollutant load, they make it easier to discern changes in streamwater quality. Additionally, they are likely to be a better predictor of pollutant concentrations in the receiving waterbody. We demonstrate the use of this technique using long-term nutrient data from the Neuse River in North Carolina. The Neuse River Estuary has suffered many eutrophication symptoms, and a program to reduce nutrient loading has been in place for several years. We show that, in addition to revealing recent reductions in nutrient inputs, annual flow-adjusted riverine nutrient concentrations show a more pronounced relationship with estuarine nutrient concentrations than do annual nutrient loads. Thus, we suggest that the calculation of flow-adjusted concentrations is a useful technique to aid in assessment of TMDL implementation.     

Source apportionment of polychlorinated biphenyls in the tidal Delaware River

The Delaware River, similar to many surface water bodies throughout the United States, is impaired due to polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations that exceed the federal water quality standard. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) for PCBs in the Delaware was promulgated in 2003 after construction of a detailed water quality model that relied upon estimated PCB loadings from sources such as wastewater treatment plant effluents, contaminated sites, and tributaries. The purpose of this project was to corroborate this loading estimate by analyzing ambient water column data on PCB concentrations in the Delaware River via positive matrix factorization (PMF) in order to identify covarying congener patterns that are, in theory, associated with sources. The PMF program identified six factors (covarying congener patterns) that appear to be associated with sources, such as sediment resuspension, contaminated sites, and wastewater effluents and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). PCB 11 was found to be a useful tracer for CSO/ wastewater inputs despite the fact that no known dye manufacturers exist in the watershed. This analysis generally corroborates the PCB loading estimate used in the water quality model.     

膨化黑毛豆仁保藏期间的品质稳定性

采用微波联合气流膨化技术制备黑毛豆仁脆粒产品,在不同温度和相对湿度条件下保藏6个月,考察其水分含量、水分活度、VC、叶绿素、花色苷、色泽、感官质量及微生物指标的变化情况。结果表明：高温、高湿都可导致产品水分含量和水分活度的增加,VC、叶绿素和花色苷含量降低,a*值增大。膨化黑毛豆仁在温度低于20℃、湿度低于70%的条件下保藏6个月,感官品质良好、符合食品卫生标准。     

Proficiency testing for sensory ranking panels: measuring panel performance

Proficiency testing in sensory analysis is an important step towards demonstrating that results from one sensory panel are consistent with the results of other sensory panels. The uniqueness of sensory analysis poses some specific problems for measuring the proficiency of the human instrument (panel). As part of an EU supported project, ProfiSens, 14 panels undertook ranking of sweetness on five samples of apple juice. Four panels were designated ‘validation’ panels, whose data were used firstly to establish the expected ranking results, and secondly to set the performance criteria that a trained sensory panel would be expected to achieve. Four key measures of a panel’s performance were investigated: the ability to rank the samples in the correct order; the significance level associated with differences between samples; the number of pairs of samples that a panel found to be different at a specified level of significance; and the degree of agreement between assessors within a panel. For each of these criteria an ‘expected result’ was considered, as well as an overall measure of performance. The data from the remaining panels were analysed, and the level of performance was recorded for each of the stated criteria. Results indicated different levels of performance, and the research also revealed the importance of choice of validation panels and the screening of samples prior to testing. A simpler performance scheme was proposed to address issues relating to attaching arbitrary weightings to each of the performance criteria, and to address potential problems associated with combining different measurement criteria into a single performance score. While there is still potential for further development and refinement, ProfiSens has made a significant contribution to proficiency testing for sensory analysis.     

可解耦线性离散系统不共振的判别法

单自由度可解耦的线性离散系统不共振的充分条件是系统的模态阻尼比，其对应的判刑法为由系统的质量、阻尼和刚度矩阵Ｍ、Ｃ、Ｋ组成的矩阵ＣＭ（－１）Ｃ（－２）Ｋ是正半定的．     

Optimization of stormwater filtration at the urban/watershed interface

Environmental pollution from cities is a major ecological problem attributed to contaminated runoff from nonpoint sources. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's guidance on implementation of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) does not adequately cover methods to improve waters impaired by nonpoint sources. To comply with TMDLs, cities may install filters in curb inlets, or use other Best Management Practices (BMPs). We tested 10 different filters and found their effectiveness in retaining pollutants ranged from 0 to >90%, depending on combinations of pollutant types (metals, pathogens, and total suspended sediments (TSS)) and filter materials. Hence, the decision to deploy filters into curb inlets must consider land use patterns associated with specific categories of pollutants generated within cities. We developed a geographic information system (GIS)-enabled model for estimating and mitigating emissions of pollutants from urban regions into watersheds. The model uses land use categories and pollutant loadings to optimize strategic placement of filters to accommodate TMDLs. For example, in a city where the landuse pattern generates 4 x 10(6) kg of TSS, 55 kg of Cd, and 2 x 10(3) kg of Zn per year into 498 curb inlets that discharge into a sensitive watershed, the optimized placement of 137, 92, and 148 filters can achieve TMDL endpoints for each pollutant, respectively. We show further that 158 strategically placed filters effectively meet the requirements simultaneously for all three pollutants, a result at least 5 times more effective than random placement of filters.     

Classification criteria and probability risk maps: limitations and perspectives

Delineation of polluted zones with respect to regulatory standards, accounting at the same time for the uncertainty of the estimated concentrations, relies on classification criteria that can lead to significantly different pollution risk maps, which, in turn, can depend on the regulatory standard itself. This paper reviews four popular classification criteria related to the violation of a probability threshold or a physical threshold, using annual (1996-2000) nitrogen dioxide concentrations from 40 air monitoring stations in Milan. The relative advantages and practical limitations of each criterion are discussed, and it is shown that some of the criteria are more appropriate for the problem at hand and that the choice of the criterion can be supported by the statistical distribution of the data and/or the regulatory standard. Finally, the polluted area is estimated over the different years and concentration thresholds using the appropriate risk maps as an additional source of uncertainty.     

Visual and visuo-tactile preferences of Malagasy consumers for machined wood surfaces for furniture: acceptability thresholds for surface parameters

In wood machining operations, target surfaces are chosen to achieve technical functions (gluing, finishing), or aesthetic functions (raw wood, varnishing) in order to produce a surface which consumers will appreciate. Although the literature often refers to the optimization of cutting conditions to improve the surface quality, there is currently no specific criterion to define what good surface quality is. The purpose of this study was to investigate quantitative criteria related to consumer preferences and to find an acceptability threshold for each criterion in order to determine the best cutting conditions. To this end, 32 surfaces from Chrysophilum boivinianum (Sapotaceae) were machined in various cutting conditions which yielded surfaces ranging from very rough to smooth. The primary surface profile, roughness and waviness parameters, and machining defects (raised grain, torn grain, chip marks, cutting traces) were measured on each surface. Visual and visuo-tactile tests were then carried out with a panel of 174 consumers. The results show that touch allowed better appreciation of surface defects than a simple visual observation. Consumers like smooth surfaces without visible defects and less visible peaks of waviness. The acceptability thresholds of surface parameters correlated with consumer preferences were determined. The rotational speed and the feed speed affect the most the surface quality. To obtain good surface quality for consumers, the rotation speed should be greater than 5000 rpm, with a maximum feed rate per tooth of 0.5 mm, and a maximum average chip thickness of 0.18 mm. This knowledge will help industries to better optimize the cutting of wood.     

我国食品卫生标准与国际食品法典标准的比较

<正>在我国食品卫生标准工作中,结合我国实际采用国际先进标准,一直是加速我国食品卫生标准建设的重要手段。但是,在各项国际食品标准中,由于国际食品法典委员会(下称CAC)作为联合国政府间组织的特殊地位,以及该委员会制定的国际食品法典标准(下称CAC标准)在WTO事务中所具有的特殊作用,采用CAC标准显得更为     

Quantitative risk-based approach for improving water quality management in mining

The potential environmental threats posed by freshwater withdrawal and mine water discharge are some of the main drivers for the mining industry to improve water management. The use of multiple sources of water supply and introducing water reuse into the mine site water system have been part of the operating philosophies employed by the mining industry to realize these improvements. However, a barrier to implementation of such good water management practices is concomitant water quality variation and the resulting impacts on the efficiency of mineral separation processes, and an increased environmental consequence of noncompliant discharge events. There is an increasing appreciation that conservative water management practices, production efficiency, and environmental consequences are intimately linked through the site water system. It is therefore essential to consider water management decisions and their impacts as an integrated system as opposed to dealing with each impact separately. This paper proposes an approach that could assist mine sites to manage water quality issues in a systematic manner at the system level. This approach can quantitatively forecast the risk related with water quality and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies in mitigating the risk by quantifying implications for production and hence economic viability.     

Cost effectiveness of regulation-compliant filtration to control sediment and metal pollution in urban runoff

The implementation of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to control urban runoff presents major structural and managerial challenges for cities. We developed a decision support system (DSS) for TMDL compliance at the city level to solve for a phased, least-cost strategy toward meeting four TMDLs using stormwater filtration. Based on a case-study city, we modeled wet weather flows and associated discharge of Total Suspended Sediment (TSS), cadmium, copper, and zinc to receiving waters by coupling U.S. EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM v. 5.0) with the geographic dataset of the urban drainage network. We linked a mixed integer linear programming algorithm to the watershed model for deriving cost-effective selection and placement of curb inlet filters to meet mass- and concentration-based TMDL requirements. The least cost solution for meeting the city's TMDL waste load allocations for TSS (73.9% reduction), Cd (50.6% reduction), Cu (30.0% reduction), and Zn (55.7% reduction) would require 1071 filter inserts at a cost of $1.7 million. In contrast, random placement of 1071 filters or uniform placement of 1266 filters is effective only for TSS and would cost $4.0 million and $4.8 million, respectively. Our results demonstrate the increases in cost-effectiveness of using an optimization-based DSS for urban watershed management.     

开发盐湖氯化镁产品 提高资源综合利用能力

运城盐湖几十年持续大量地开采利用硫酸钠而使镁离子含量不断富集,已严重影响水硝的产量和质量.开发生产氯化镁产品,变害为利,将提高盐湖资源的综合利用能力,创造更好的经济效益.八○矿硝的成功开采和氯化镁市场需求量的增加,为开发生产盐湖氯化镁产品提供了有利的生产条件和市场契机.     

群众满意度影响因素定性比较分析——以食品安全城市创建为例

食品安全城市创建成为地方政府提升食品安全群众满意度的重要载体。本文运用定性比较分析方法，以浙江省11个城市为案例，分析食品安全城市创建满意度影响变量及提升路径。结果表明:定性比较分析在食品安全城市创建公众满意度提升研究领域的可行性；群众对政府监管工作评价是食品安全创建满意度的必要条件；食品安全宣传力度、食品抽检合格率、蔚蓝水质指数、人均GDP和烟酒消费价格指数五个条件变量需相互作用才能提升满意度；人均GDP越低、食品安全宣传力度越大、蔚蓝水质越好，满意度越高。食品安全城市创建因子对满意度提升有正向相关关系，创建因子每提高1个标准单位，食品安全群众满意度将提升0.687个单位；条件组态与结果分析表明满意度的提升有资源禀赋型、宣传拉动型、低经济驱动型三种路径。     

Novel system for controlled investigation of environmental partitioning of hydrophobic compounds in water

Partitioning behavior of hydrophobic and semivolatile chemicals (such as many POPs and PAHs) in water is key in controlling their environmental distribution and fate. A new equilibrium method is presented here which allows determination of the equilibrium partition coefficient of hexachlorobenzene with suspended particle (K(SPM)≈ 337 L gOC(-1)) in a complex bulk water sample by correcting for a number of sampling artifacts and for the presence of dissolved matter. The method provides simultaneous experimental determination of the fraction of chemical truly dissolved in water (representing in this case about 54% of the bulk water concentration) and that associated to DM (21%). The Henry's law constant was also experimentally determined during the K(SPM) measurements, providing information on the occurrence of partitioning equilibrium in the system for each single observation. Results showed that the high level of quality control and accuracy provided confidence intervals for the K(SPM) estimates within 1 order of magnitude.     

Beach monitoring criteria: reading the fine print

Beach monitoring programs aim to decrease swimming-related illnesses resulting from exposure to harmful microbes in recreational waters, while providing maximum beach access. Managers are advised by the U.S. EPA to estimate microbiological water quality based on a 5-day geometric mean of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations or on a jurisdiction-specific single-sample maximum; however, most opt instead to apply a default single-sample maximum to ease application. We examined whether re-evaluation of the U.S. EPA ambient water quality criteria (AWQC) and the epidemiological studies on which they are based could increase public beach access without affecting presumed health risk. Single-sample maxima were calculated using historic monitoring data for 50 beaches along coastal Lake Michigan on various temporal and spatial groupings to assess flexibility in the application of the AWQC. No calculation on either scale was as low as the default maximum (235 CFU/100 mL) that managers typically use, indicating that current applications may be more conservative than the outlined AWQC. It was notable that beaches subject to point source FIB contamination had lower variation, highlighting the bias in the standards for these beaches. Until new water quality standards are promulgated, more site-specific application of the AWQC may benefit beach managers by allowing swimmers greater access to beaches. This issue will be an important consideration in addressing the forthcoming beach monitoring standards.     

Economic and health risk trade-offs of swim closures at a Lake Michigan beach

This paper presents a framework for analyzing the economic, health, and recreation implications of swim closures related to high fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels. The framework utilizes benefit transfer policy analysis to provide a practical procedure for estimating the effectiveness of recreational water quality policies. Evaluation criteria include the rates of intended and unintended management outcomes, whether the chosen protocols generate closures with positive net economic benefits to swimmers, and the number of predicted illnesses the policy is able to prevent. We demonstrate the framework through a case study of a Lake Michigan freshwater beach using existing water quality and visitor data from 1998 to 2001. We find that a typical closure causes a net economic loss among would-be swimmers totaling dollars 1274-37,030/day, depending on the value assumptions used. Unnecessary closures, caused by high indicator variability and a 24-h time delay between when samples are taken and the management decision can be made, occurred on 14 (12%) out of 118 monitored summer days. Days with high FIB levels when the swim area is open are also common but do relatively little economic harm in comparison. Also, even if the closure policy could be implemented daily and perfectly without error, only about 42% of predicted illnesses would be avoided. These conclusions were sensitive to the relative values and risk preferences that swimmers have for recreation access and avoiding health effects, suggesting a need for further study of the impacts of recreational water quality policies on individuals.