从剩余产能看新世纪世界石油供需形势

剩余产能是指在已探明储量并进行产能建设后暂不实施开采的那部分闲置的油气生产能力。它主要集中在欧佩克国家,但分布很不均衡,保有剩余产能的主要是以沙特为首的海合会国家。欧佩克曾欲以主动变化剩余产能数量来影响国际油价走势和/或抢占市场份额。本世纪初欧佩克剩余产能主要在100×104~600×104bbl/d之间变化,2003~2009年平均在250×104bbl/d以下,2010年以来平均约为350×104bbl/d。这些剩余产能出现在若干欧佩克国家的石油生产因受到严重干扰而明显减产,一些非欧佩克生产国因政策性原因而导致生产下降的背景下。此外,2007~2012年OECD国家石油消费量呈明显下降趋势,而且这种趋势还将持续下去并会有所加大;发展中国家也将陆续走上节能节油、降低石油消费量之路;大部分石油进口国已具有相当数量的石油储备;再加上以页岩油气为代表的非常规油气的大发展,这些都凸显出从资源保障程度上看,世界石油市场供需宽平衡、供略大于需的局面。世界石油市场将更趋于成熟,非市场因素对石油生产、消费乃至价格的影响力将会日趋降低。     

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a “price rule” that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices.     

欧佩克石油生产能力现状及前景展望

欧佩克的石油供应能力是全球石油市场中一个重要变量,导致其变化的原因多种多样,了解左右欧佩克石油供应能力的因素以及由其能力变化所产生的影响十分必要。近期发生于世界石油市场的事件可以用来帮助更好的分析这个问题。在综合考虑各方面情况的基础上,对欧佩克生产能力的增长趋势做出了预测。在这里关键的一点假设是,未来较长的一段时间内,伊拉克将继续作为欧佩克成员,并且其未来的行动也将与该组织的根本目的相一致。预计到2003年底,欧佩克的生产能力将为3155万桶/日,2005年可达3375万桶/日,2010年时将为3890万桶/日。这相当于到2010年的这段时间内,欧佩克的生产能力将以平均100万桶/日的速度递增。以这样的增长速度,一方面可以获得最大利润;另一方面,也保证了欧佩克有足够的闲置生产能力,这是其用以影响市场的重要砝码。世界上所有的石油探明储量几乎都集中在中东地区,再加上这里的生产成本在世界上最低,这一切都使得中东的欧佩克成员国生产能力增长迅速,增长量将占预测欧佩克总增长量的3/4。     

美国“能源独立”战略及影响分析

历届美国政府都将“能源独立”作为政府孜孜以求的理想和目标.近年来,由于美国油气产量,尤其是页岩气等非常规油气产量的大幅增长,同时国际金融危机导致美国石油需求减缓甚至负增长,美国“能源独立”战略取得了显著进展.石油对外依存度出现拐点,并逐步摆脱了对中东地区石油的依赖,能源自给率逐渐提高,2011年达到81.4％.美国经济将因能源成本优势而加速复苏,贸易赤字大幅削减,并进一步吸引国际资本回流.北美正在成为世界能源供应版图中隆起的板块,将在一定程度上削弱中东地区能源的战略地位,并深刻影响地缘政治和全球经济格局.以中印为代表的发展中国家将成为全球,特别是中东能源消费的主力.未来围绕石油的核心矛盾将从OPEC与OECD之间的利益冲突,逐步转移到新兴经济体与OPEC之间的供需稳定问题上.全球能源格局调整将使我国能源发展和能源安全面临更为严峻的挑战.我国应加快推进和完善石油战略储备体系,积极推动“走出去”战略,强化全球能源供应能力建设,加大非常规能源勘探开发的科技投入,同时要大力发展清洁/替代能源,大幅提高能源科用效率.     

OPEC's kinked demand curve

Asymmetric effects of oil prices on the macroeconomy imply multiple equilibrium prices for OPEC. I estimate world demand for crude oil, non-OPEC supply, and the effects of changes in price on world GDP using quarterly data covering 1973 to 2010. If OPEC's marginal cost is $20/bbl in 2014:III, and its discount rate is zero, estimated equilibrium prices are $44–88/bbl. Multiple equilibria incent OPEC to tolerate unstable prices, which, because of the asymmetry, lower world GDP. Both policies that increase responsiveness to price and policies that lower net demand to OPEC narrow and lower the range of equilibrium prices, but the former are more effective at doing so. OPEC responds to changes in the discount rate in the opposite way from competitive producers, so policies that secure oil-related property rights in OPEC countries and other policies that lower OPEC's discount rate narrow and lower the range of equilibrium prices. Monetary policy is more effective at accelerating or slowing macroeconomic activity the larger is OPEC's market share.     

Adjustment and energy: Dangers of a demand-side obsession

Short-term energy adjustment, based on the now-dominant IMF model, is in strong conflict with that required for longer term development and growth. The world economic recovery is threatened by structural, cyclical, and other factors, including the debt problem of developing countries, commodity price surges, and potential energy problems. Short-term adjustment impacts on longer-term policy and investment in the energy sector, assuring that economic recovery will demand rapid increases in oil imports for oil-importer developing countries. National policies in industrial countries to squeeze energy have been very successful, but have likely deepened the recession and intensified some cyclic aspects of investment and development. Oil supply is still strongly influenced by OPEC, and only through heightened appreciation of recession-recovery cycles will the tremendous importance of the potential resources of oil-importer developing countries be recognized - a first step towards the inevitably multilateral framework needed for their development.     

World supplies of petroleum in the 1980s

During the 1970s the non-communist world has weathered, without profound economic disturbance, the oil crisis which developed following the formation of OPEC. This was to a large extent due to the fact that, although the market price of crude had sharply increased, its cost in real terms had remained stable.The factors which mitigated the economic consequences of the oil situation during the last decade are not likely to last throughout the 1980s. It is therefore anticipated that the oil dependent countries will be in a much more difficult position in the immediate future.The conventional approach in studying world energy problems is to begin with the assessment of future energy requirements of individual countries on the one hand and of their energy production based on domestic resources on the other. It is then assumed that, hopefully, the difference between the two figures will be covered by imports of crude.This study tackles the problem the other way around, using as a starting point an estimate of what is likely to be exported by the OPEC group in the 1980s.The conclusion arrived at from an analysis of the political and economic forces operating within OPEC is that OPEC will drastically curtail its exports, maybe by as much as 40%. As a result, the non-communist oil-dependent world will face much more acute and difficult energy problems during the 1980s than it did during the 1970s.     

Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC.     

掌握原油资源与贸易信息 优化原油采购与原油加工

世界一次能源消费不断增长,据国际能源署(IEA)预测,2030年世界一次能源需求量为165×108t油当量,2050为215×108t油当量。2030年能源消费中化石能源仍占主导地位。世界石油探明储量中,中东地区约占60%,欧佩克约占76%。世界主要国家原油储量、产量和加工能力分布不平衡。世界原油重质化劣质化趋势明显。世界炼油厂逐年减少,平均规模越来越大,炼油企业和装置结构发生明显变化,炼油工艺装置结构调整步伐加快,加氢裂化、加氢处理与焦化的加工能力还将有较大幅度增长。石油输出国大力发展炼油和石化工业。中国交通运输业和汽车工业的迅速发展推动了炼油工业的发展,但中国炼油工业面临着石油资源短缺和原油对外依存度越来越高的挑战。据IEA预测,中国2015年石油需求量为5.0×108～5.3×108t,2020年将达到5.9×108～6.4×108t,对外依存度将达到70%。     

OPEC and demand response to crude oil prices

This paper investigates demand response to crude oil price movements before and after the recent global financial and economic crisis. It employs several market power indices to structurally estimate price elasticities. A newly developed market power index for crude oil markets is implemented. In this approach OPEC is the central player and acts as a dominant producer in the global oil market. We quantify how a change in market structure (such as changes in marginal cost of production) would contribute to market power exercise of OPEC and have an ultimate impact on price elasticity of demand for oil. Our price elasticity predictions fall in a range reported in the literature, however estimates for pre-crisis deviate from the post-crisis ones. In fact, demand response to crude oil prices has almost doubled during the crisis. This severe change in price response can be associated with record price levels caused by supply shortages and surge in alternative renewable energy resources. The key advantages of this methodology over the existing literature are that it is simple to use and estimates price elasticity using a competition framework without specifying demand/supply function(s), and utilizes commonly observable market variables that can be applied to any admissible data frequency.     

国际石油市场供求格局正在发生结构性变化

从供给和需求两个方面对国际石油市场格局变化进行了分析。在供给方面,探讨了石油探明储量、产能以及产油主体政策调整等因素的影响。主要观点是:石油储量虽然满足未来数10年的世界石油需求,但探明储量增速明显放缓;世界石油产能增长缓慢,导致剩余产能严重不足;产油主体政策调整进一步制约了产能的增长。在需求方面,探讨了世界经济形势、高油价、能源利用效率、替代能源等因素的影响。主要观点是:世界经济保持较快增长,特别是随着发展中国家工业化程度加深,导致石油需求增长迅速;高油价对世界经济的冲击明显减轻,难以改变石油需求快速增长的趋势;由于石油消费集中在运输领域,节能对减少世界石油需求效果有限;高油价虽能推动替代能源的发展,但石油仍将长期保持主体能源地位。通过供需两方面分析,指出当前世界市场石油供需格局正在发生结构性变化,油价将长期在高位波动。     

Monopoly power in the oil market and the macroeconomy

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of oil price shocks caused by innovations in the monopoly power in the oil market. Monopoly power is interpreted as oil producers' ability to charge a markup over marginal costs. We propose a novel way to identify markup shocks based on meetings of the OPEC and show their unique macroeconomic consequences compared to supply and demand shocks. In particular, global real economic activity expands when oil producers' monopoly power rises. A general equilibrium model suggests that higher monopoly profits attract investments in oil producing capital which drive down marginal costs and stimulate economic growth.     

国际原油价格的主控因素分析

现代国际油价有美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格、欧洲布伦特（BRENT）油价及OPEC一揽子价格三大价格体系。根据国际原油价格变化的主控因素差异,可以将其划分为结构性转变、基本面趋势和波动3个部分。油价结构性转变与全球主要资源区和市场区的结构性调整有关,其直接诱因是世界原油供需体系的结构性紊乱．根源在于生产或市场的无序及对定价权的争夺,而结果均导致定价体系的嬗变。原油名义价格由供需矛盾、石油货币价格、边际成本和替代能源共同决定,这四者构成决定国际原油价格基本面趋势的主要因素。石油供需矛盾的日益突出和美元贬值必然导致油价上涨;而大型油公司高成本区的边际成本决定了未来国际油价基本面将围绕80美元／bbl波动：基础能源的垄断属性将可能最终使替代能源与目标能源的竞争关系转变为价格继承关系。波动情况主要受石油巨头或金融投机者操纵,他们通过原油供应链中段的多种实体原油仓储以及虚拟经济所衍生的多种投机括动达到操纵油价波动的目标,而WTI油价最容易受到地区市场因素的影响,从而为各种投机炒作和油价操纵提供了有利条件。一旦油价定价体系存在某种操纵,就可以通过分析操纵者的战略动机实现对油价趋势的合理判断。     

Impact of the superpowers' energy balances on world oil

The world has become so accustomed to looking at OPEC and the OECD consumers that it overlooks one of the largest oil and energy perspectives in the world. Half of all energy consumption and production on our planet is internal to the two superpowers, as is 45% of all oil consumption. The net energy imports of the USA are balanced by hydrocarbons exported by the USSR; but concern exists in both nations about their oil reserves, which support 22 million bbl of production every day. Will they continue to completent one another, or are there signs that suggest their oil balance in future will be less comportable for the rest of the world?     

The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

Crude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro-economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation.     

Estimating energy demand in OPEC countries

This paper attempts to estimate past trends in the total energy consumption and the use of hydrocarbons in OPEC countries. On the basis of these estimates forecasts are presented of the OPEC countries' internal demand for hydrocarbons. An attempt is also made to assess the impact of this demand on the future availability of OPEC oil and gas for exports.     

Price and prospects for oil : Carrying the burden of excess capacity in the 1980s and beyond

The continuing decline in world oil prices will not be halted in the short term, and prospects for the long run are not encouraging. There is a problem of unprecedented gravity in the surplus capacity of the oil industry. A glut of 10 million bbl/day of crude oil remains unsold, the cohesion of the OPEC cartel is becoming more strained, and a sizeable proportion of refinery plant has been taken off-stream. The basic difficulty is that high interest rates have curbed international capital formation and depressed demand. Upward pressures on the US dollar have been created by the deficit on US domestic and external accounts, and have retarded the recovery of the global economy. Today the cost of money exceeds the factor price of oil, and the market is highly unstable. The devastating costs of carrying surplus capacity are likely to survive through the 1980s.     

2006年国际原油市场前瞻

2006年国际原油市场在上升动力和阻力的双重作用下,仍将处于高位盘整时期。一方面,由于原油品种地区和结构性矛盾突出、OPEC的剩余产能不足、中东局势动荡不安等多方面原因,以及基金投机力量的强劲推动,2006年国际原油价格上升动力不减;另一方面,在美元汇率上升、原油需求增速减缓以及原油供给仍有能力持续增加的多重作用下,油价上升遇到一定的阻力。2005年油价的持续高涨直接冲击了中国原油的供销链条,对相关行业产生着重要的影响。2006年,我国必须及早动手,采取措施,积极应对国际石油价格风险。     

中东战争低价石油及其中国的对策

无论美国伊拉克能否开战,中东的紧张局势都会令石油市场引发新的动荡,加上非欧佩克国家石油生产能力迅猛增长,全球环境因素和市场供求关系等因素的共同作用,将使国际石油市场很可能出现低于＄20的价格。由于我国的石油天然气的生产和发现成本远远高于国际平均水平,多年来国际市场高昂的石油价格撑托着我国石油产业生存空间。低价石油时代的来临会对我国能源产业生存造成威胁。中国能源产业需要改变生存方式,降低成本,而现存能源管理机制不能适应全球化市场竞争和应对低价石油冲击的能力,目前,需寻找新的思路,选择新的策略,能源产业才能走出两难处境,才能确保国家的能源安全。这有待我们用全新的战略和对策做出回答。     

Determinants of China's energy imports: An empirical analysis

Sustained economic growth in China has triggered a surge of energy imports, especially oil imports. This paper investigates the determinants of China's energy import demand by using cointegraiton and VECM techniques. The findings suggest that, in the long run, growth of industrial production and expansion of transport sectors affect China's oil imports, while domestic energy output has a substitution effect. Thus, as the Chinese economy industrializes and the automotive sector expands, China's oil imports are likely to increase. Though China's domestic oil production has a substitution effect on imports, its growth is limited due to scarce domestic reserve and high exploration costs. It is anticipated that China will be more dependent on overseas oil supply regardless of the world oil price.