Characterizing model uncertainties in the life cycle of lignocellulose-based ethanol fuels

Renewable and low carbon fuel standards being developed at federal and state levels require an estimation of the life cycle carbon intensity (LCCI) of candidate fuels that can substitute for gasoline, such as second generation bioethanol. Estimating the LCCI of such fuels with a high degree of confidence requires the use of probabilistic methods to account for known sources of uncertainty. We construct life cycle models for the bioconversion of agricultural residue (corn stover) and energy crops (switchgrass) and explicitly examine uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. Using statistical methods to identify significant model variables from public data sets and Aspen Plus chemical process models,we estimate stochastic life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the two feedstocks combined with two promising fuel conversion technologies. The approach can be generalized to other biofuel systems. Our results show potentially high and uncertain GHG emissions for switchgrass-ethanol due to uncertain CO? flux from land use change and N?O flux from N fertilizer. However, corn stover-ethanol,with its low-in-magnitude, tight-in-spread LCCI distribution, shows considerable promise for reducing life cycle GHG emissions relative to gasoline and corn-ethanol. Coproducts are important for reducing the LCCI of all ethanol fuels we examine.     

Life cycle assessment of potential biojet fuel production in the United States

The objective of this paper is to reveal to what degree biobased jet fuels (biojet) can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the U.S. aviation sector. A model of the supply and demand chain of biojet involving farmers, biorefineries, airlines, and policymakers is developed by considering factors that drive the decisions of actors (i.e., decision-makers and stakeholders) in the life cycle stages. Two kinds of feedstock are considered: oil-producing feedstock (i.e., camelina and algae) and lignocellulosic biomass (i.e., corn stover, switchgrass, and short rotation woody crops). By factoring in farmer/feedstock producer and biorefinery profitability requirements and risk attitudes, land availability and suitability, as well as a time delay and technological learning factor, a more realistic estimate of the level of biojet supply and emissions reduction can be developed under different oil price assumptions. Factors that drive biojet GHG emissions and unit production costs from each feedstock are identified and quantified. Overall, this study finds that at likely adoption rates biojet alone would not be sufficient to achieve the aviation emissions reduction target. In 2050, under high oil price scenario assumption, GHG emissions can be reduced to a level ranging from 55 to 92%, with a median value of 74%, compared to the 2005 baseline level.     

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.     

Environmental implications of municipal solid waste-derived ethanol

We model a municipal solid waste (MSW)-to-ethanol facility that employs dilute acid hydrolysis and gravity pressure vessel technology and estimate life cycle energy use and air emissions. We compare our results, assuming the ethanol is utilized as E85 (blended with 15% gasoline) in a light-duty vehicle, with extant life cycle assessments of gasoline, corn-ethanol, and energy crop-cellulosic-ethanol fueled vehicles. We also compare MSW-ethanol production, as a waste management alternative, with landfilling with gas recovery options. We find that the life cycle total energy use per vehicle mile traveled for MSW-ethanol is less than that of corn-ethanol and cellulosic-ethanol; and energy use from petroleum sources for MSW-ethanol is lower than for the other fuels. MSW-ethanol use in vehicles reduces net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 65% compared to gasoline, and by 58% when compared to corn-ethanol. Relative GHG performance with respect to cellulosic ethanol depends on whether MSW classification is included or not. Converting MSW to ethanol will result in net fossil energy savings of 397-1830 MJ/MT MSW compared to net fossil energy consumption of 177-577 MJ/MT MSW for landfilling. However, landfilling with LFG recovery either for flaring or for electricity production results in greater reductions in GHG emissions compared to MSW-to-ethanol conversion.     

Replacing gasoline with corn ethanol results in significant environmental problem-shifting

Previous studies on the life-cycle environmental impacts of corn ethanol and gasoline focused almost exclusively on energy balance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and largely overlooked the influence of regional differences in agricultural practices. This study compares the environmental impact of gasoline and E85 taking into consideration 12 different environmental impacts and regional differences among 19 corn-growing states. Results show that E85 does not outperform gasoline when a wide spectrum of impacts is considered. If the impacts are aggregated using weights developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), overall, E85 generates approximately 6% to 108% (23% on average) greater impact compared with gasoline, depending on where corn is produced, primarily because corn production induces significant eutrophication impacts and requires intensive irrigation. If GHG emissions from the indirect land use changes are considered, the differences increase to between 16% and 118% (33% on average). Our study indicates that replacing gasoline with corn ethanol may only result in shifting the net environmental impacts primarily toward increased eutrophication and greater water scarcity. These results suggest that the environmental criteria used in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) be re-evaluated to include additional categories of environmental impact beyond GHG emissions.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels' indirect land use change are uncertain but may be much greater than previously estimated

The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions induced by increased biofuel consumption are highly uncertain: individual estimates vary from each other and each has a wide intrinsic error band. Using a reduced-form model, we estimated that the bounding range for emissions from indirect land-use change (ILUC) from US corn ethanol expansion was 10 to 340 g CO(2) MJ(-1). Considering various probability distributions to model parameters, the broadest 95% central interval, i.e., between the 2.5 and 97.5%ile values, ranged from 21 to 142 g CO(2)e MJ(-1). ILUC emissions from US corn ethanol expansion thus range from small, but not negligible, to several times greater than the life cycle emissions of gasoline. The ILUC emissions estimates of 30 g CO(2) MJ(-1) for the California Air Resources Board and 34 g CO(2)e MJ(-1) by USEPA (for 2022) are at the low end of the plausible range. The lack of data and understanding (epistemic uncertainty) prevents convergence of judgment on a central value for ILUC emissions. The complexity of the global system being modeled suggests that this range is unlikely to narrow substantially in the near future. Fuel policies that require narrow bounds around point estimates of life cycle GHG emissions are thus incompatible with current and anticipated modeling capabilities. Alternative policies that address the risks associated with uncertainty are more likely to achieve GHG reductions.     

Incorporating time-corrected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in vehicle regulations

Beginning with model year 2012, light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. are subject to new rules that regulate tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on grams of CO(2)-equivalent per mile (gCO(2)e/mi). However, improvements in vehicle technology, lower-carbon fuels, and improvements in GHG accounting practices which account for distortions related to emissions timing all contribute to shifting a greater portion of life cycle emissions away from the vehicle use phase and toward the vehicle production phase. This article proposes methods for calculating time-corrected life cycle emissions intensity on a gCO(2)e/mi basis and explores whether regulating only tailpipe CO(2) could lead to an undesirable regulatory outcome, where technologies and vehicle architectures with higher life cycle GHGs are favored over technologies with lower life cycle emissions but with higher tailpipe GHG emissions. Two life cycle GHG assessments for future vehicles are presented in addition to time correction factors for production and end-of-life GHG emissions. Results demonstrate that, based on the vehicle designs considered here, there is a potential for favoring vehicles with higher life cycle emissions if only tailpipe emissions are regulated; moreover, the application of time correction factors amplifies the importance of production emissions and the potential for a perverse outcome.     

Assessing GHG emissions, ecological footprint, and water linkage for different fuels

Currently, transport is highly dependent on fossil fuels and responsible for about 23% of world energy-related GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Ethanol from sugar cane and corn emerges as an alternative for gasoline in order to mitigate GHG emissions. Additionally, deeper offshore drilling projects such as in the Brazilian Pre-Salt reservoirs and mining projects of nonconventional sources like Tar Sands in Canada could be a solution for supplying demand of fossil fuels in the short and midterm. Based on updated literature, this paper presents an assessment of GHG emissions for four different fuels: ethanol from sugar cane and from corn and gasoline from conventional crude oil and from tar sands. An Ecological Footprint analysis is also presented, which shows that ethanol from sugar cane has the lowest GHG emissions and requires the lowest biocapacity per unit of energy produced among these fuels. Finally, an analysis using the Embodied Water concept is made with the introduction of a new concept, the "CO(2)-Water", to illustrate the impacts of releasing carbon from underground to atmosphere and of the water needed to sequestrate it over the life cycle of the assessed fuels. Using this method resulted that gasoline from fossil fuels would indirectly "require" on average as much water as ethanol from sugar cane per unit of fuel energy produced.     

Life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from plug-in hybrid vehicles: implications for policy

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. However, meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. We assess life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs and find that they reduce GHG emissions by 32% compared to conventional vehicles, but have small reductions compared to traditional hybrids. Batteries are an important component of PHEVs, and GHGs associated with lithium-ion battery materials and production account for 2-5% of life cycle emissions from PHEVs. We consider cellulosic ethanol use and various carbon intensities of electricity. The reduced liquid fuel requirements of PHEVs could leverage limited cellulosic ethanol resources. Electricity generation infrastructure is long-lived, and technology decisions within the next decade about electricity supplies in the power sector will affectthe potential for large GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs for several decades.     

Energy balance and emissions associated with biochar sequestration and pyrolysis bioenergy production

The implications for greenhouse gas emissions of optimizing a slow pyrolysis-based bioenergy system for biochar and energy production rather than solely for energy production were assessed. Scenarios for feedstock production were examined using a life-cycle approach. We considered both purpose grown bioenergy crops (BEC) and the use of crop wastes (CW) as feedstocks. The BEC scenarios involved a change from growing winter wheat to purpose grown miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn as bioenergy crops. The CW scenarios consider both corn stover and winter wheat straw as feedstocks. Our findings show that the avoided emissions are between 2 and 5 times greater when biochar is applied to agricultural land (2--19 Mg CO2 ha(-1) y(-1)) than used solely for fossil energy offsets. 41--64% of these emission reductions are related to the retention of C in biochar, the rest to offsetting fossil fuel use for energy, fertilizer savings, and avoided soil emissions other than CO2. Despite a reduction in energy output of approximately 30% where the slow pyrolysis technology is optimized to produce biochar for land application, the energy produced per unit energy input at 2--7 MJ/MJ is greater than that of comparable technologies such as ethanol from corn. The C emissions per MWh of electricity production range from 91-360 kg CO2 MWh(-1), before accounting for C offset due to the use of biochar are considerably below the lifecycle emissions associated with fossil fuel use for electricity generation (600-900 kg CO2 MWh(-1)). Low-temperature slow pyrolysis offers an energetically efficient strategy for bioenergy production, and the land application of biochar reduces greenhouse emissions to a greater extent than when the biochar is used to offset fossil fuel emissions.     

Policy implications of uncertainty in modeled life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels

Biofuels have received legislative support recently in California's Low-Carbon Fuel Standard and the Federal Energy Independence and Security Act. Both present new fuel types, but neither provides methodological guidelines for dealing with the inherent uncertainty in evaluating their potential life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions reductions are based on point estimates only. This work demonstrates the use of Monte Carlo simulation to estimate life-cycle emissions distributions from ethanol and butanol from corn or switchgrass. Life-cycle emissions distributions for each feedstock and fuel pairing modeled span an order of magnitude or more. Using a streamlined life-cycle assessment, corn ethanol emissions range from 50 to 250 g CO(2)e/MJ, for example, and each feedstock-fuel pathway studied shows some probability of greater emissions than a distribution for gasoline. Potential GHG emissions reductions from displacing fossil fuels with biofuels are difficult to forecast given this high degree of uncertainty in life-cycle emissions. This uncertainty is driven by the importance and uncertainty of indirect land use change emissions. Incorporating uncertainty in the decision making process can illuminate the risks of policy failure (e.g., increased emissions), and a calculated risk of failure due to uncertainty can be used to inform more appropriate reduction targets in future biofuel policies.     

Effect of feeding strategies and cropping systems on greenhouse gas emission from Wisconsin certified organic dairy farms

Organic agriculture continues to expand in the United States, both in total hectares and market share. However, management practices used by dairy organic producers, and their resulting environmental impacts, vary across farms. This study used a partial life cycle assessment approach to estimate the effect of different feeding strategies and associated crop production on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from Wisconsin certified organic dairy farms. Field and livestock-driven emissions were calculated using 2 data sets. One was a 20-yr data set from the Wisconsin Integrated Cropping System Trial documenting management inputs, crop and pasture yields, and soil characteristics, used to estimate field-level emissions from land associated with feed production (row crop and pasture), including N₂O and soil carbon sequestration. The other was a data set summarizing organic farm management in Wisconsin, which was used to estimate replacement heifer emission (CO₂ equivalents), enteric methane (CH₄), and manure management (N₂O and CH₄). Three combinations of corn grain (CG) and soybean (SB) as concentrate (all corn = 100% CG; baseline = 75% CG + 25% SB; half corn = 50% CG + 50% SB) were assigned to each of 4 representative management strategies as determined by survey data. Overall, GHG emissions associated with crop production was 1,297 ± 136 kg of CO₂ equivalents/t of ECM without accounting for soil carbon changes (ΔSC), and GHG emission with ΔSC was 1,457 ± 111 kg of CO₂ equivalents/t of ECM, with greater reliance on pasture resulting in less ΔSC. Higher levels of milk production were a major driver associated with reduction in GHG emission per metric tonne of ECM. Emissions per metric tonne of ECM increased with increasing proportion of SB in the ration; however, including SB in the crop rotation decreased N₂O emission per metric tonne of ECM from cropland due to lower applications of organically approved N fertility inputs. More SB at the expense of CG in the ration reduced enteric CH₄ emission per metric tonne of ECM (because of greater dietary fat content) but increased N₂O emission per metric tonne of ECM from manure (because of greater N content). An increased reliance on pasture for feed at the expense of grain resulted in decreased in milk production, subsequently leading to substantially higher emissions per metric tonne of ECM.     

Energy and greenhouse gas profiles of polyhydroxybutyrates derived from corn grain: a life cycle perspective

Polyhydroxybutyrates (PHB) are well-known biopolymers derived from sugars orvegetable oils. Cradle-to-gate environmental performance of PHB derived from corn grain is evaluated through life cycle assessment (LCA), particularly nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Site-specific process information on the corn wet milling and PHB fermentation and recovery processes was obtained from Telles. Most of energy used in the corn wet milling and PHB fermentation and recovery processes is generated in a cogeneration power plant in which corn stover, assumed to be representative of a variety of biomass sources that could be used, is burned to generate electricity and steam. County level agricultural information is used in estimating the environmental burdens associated with both corn grain and corn stover production. Results show that PHB derived from corn grain offers environmental advantages over petroleum-derived polymers in terms of nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, PHB provides greenhouse gas credits, and thus PHB use reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to petroleum-derived polymers. Corn cultivation is one of the environmentally sensitive areas in the PHB production system. More sustainable practices in corn cultivation (e.g., using no-tillage and winter cover crops) could reduce the environmental impacts of PHB by up to 72%.     

Greenhouse gas emission analysis for USA fluid milk processing plants: Processing,packaging, and distribution

A gate-to-gate life cycle assessment was conducted to evaluate the Global Warming Potential associated with USA fluid milk processing. Data collected from 50 fluid milk processing plants were used to construct a life cycle assessment model for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the milk processing system, from raw milk entering the plant’s refrigerated storage silo through delivery of packaged fluid milk to retail store’s loading dock. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions associated with the processing, packaging, and distribution in the processing of packaged fluid milk were investigated. Upstream emissions associated with raw materials, extraction, and transportation were included. Average GHG emissions for processing, packaging and distribution were 0.077, 0.054 and 0.072 kg CO₂e kg⁻¹ packaged fluid milk, respectively. Overall GHG emissions were 0.203 (±0.017) kg CO₂e kg⁻¹ packaged fluid milk with major individual GHG contributors being plant electricity usage (27% of total) and truck fleet tailpipe emissions (29% of total).     

The greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy requirement of bioplastics from cradle to gate of a biomass refinery

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are promising eco-friendly bioplastics that can be produced from cellulosic ethanol biorefineries as value-added coproducts. A cradle-to-factory-gate life cycle assessment is performed with two important categories: the greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions and fossil energy requirement per kg of bioplastics produced. The analysis indicates that PHA bioplastics contribute clearly to the goal of mitigating GHG emissions with only 0.49 kg CO(2-e) being emitted from production of 1 kg of resin. Compared with 2-3 kg CO(2-e) of petrochemical counterparts, it is about 80% reduction of the global warming potential. The fossil energy requirement per kg of bioplastics is 44 MJ, lowerthan those of petrochemical counterparts (78-88 MJ/kg resin). About 62% of fossil energy is used for processing utilities and wastewater treatment, and the rest is required for raw materials in different life cycle stages.     

Impact of aviation non-CO₂ combustion effects on the environmental feasibility of alternative jet fuels

Alternative fuels represent a potential option for reducing the climate impacts of the aviation sector. The climate impacts of alternatives fuel are traditionally considered as a ratio of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to those of the displaced petroleum product; however, this ignores the climate impacts of the non-CO(2) combustion effects from aircraft in the upper atmosphere. The results of this study show that including non-CO(2) combustion emissions and effects in the life cycle of a Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (SPK) fuel can lead to a decrease in the relative merit of the SPK fuel relative to conventional jet fuel. For example, an SPK fuel option with zero life cycle GHG emissions would offer a 100% reduction in GHG emissions but only a 48% reduction in actual climate impact using a 100-year time window and the nominal climate modeling assumption set outlined herein. Therefore, climate change mitigation policies for aviation that rely exclusively on relative well-to-wake life cycle GHG emissions as a proxy for aviation climate impact may overestimate the benefit of alternative fuel use on the global climate system.     

Forest bioenergy or forest carbon? Assessing trade-offs in greenhouse gas mitigation with wood-based fuels

The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.     

Biodiesel production in a semiarid environment: a life cycle assessment approach

While the use of biodiesel appears to be a promising alternative to petroleum fuel, the replacement of fossil fuel by biofuel may not bring about the intended climate cooling because of the increased soil N2O emissions due to N-fertilizer applications. Using a life cycle assessment approach, we assessed the influence of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions on the life cycle global warming potential of the production and combustion of biodiesel from canola oil produced in a semiarid climate. Utilizing locally measured soil N2O emissions, rather than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default values, decreased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production and combustion of 1 GJ biodiesel from 63 to 37 carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-e)/GJ. GHG were 1.1 to 2.1 times lower than those from petroleum or petroleum-based diesel depending on which soil N2O emission factors were included in the analysis. The advantages of utilizing biodiesel rapidly declined when blended with petroleum diesel. Mitigation strategies that decrease emissions from the production and application of N fertilizers may further decrease the life cycle GHG emissions in the production and combustion of biodiesel.     

Uncertainty analysis of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum-based fuels and impacts on low carbon fuel policies

The climate change impacts of U.S. petroleum-based fuels consumption have contributed to the development of legislation supporting the introduction of low carbon alternatives, such as biofuels. However, the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions estimated for these policies using life cycle assessment methods are predominantly based on deterministic approaches that do not account for any uncertainty in outcomes. This may lead to unreliable and expensive decision making. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions associated with petroleum-based fuels consumed in the U.S. is determined using a process-based framework and statistical modeling methods. Probability distributions fitted to available data were used to represent uncertain parameters in the life cycle model. Where data were not readily available, a partial least-squares (PLS) regression model based on existing data was developed. This was used in conjunction with probability mixture models to select appropriate distributions for specific life cycle stages. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to generate sample output distributions. As an example of results from using these methods, the uncertainty range in life cycle GHG emissions from gasoline was shown to be 13%-higher than the typical 10% minimum emissions reductions targets specified by low carbon fuel policies.     

Uncertainty in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from United States natural gas end-uses and its effects on policy

Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.