Developing an integrated sustainability and resilience framework of indicators for the assessment of low-carbon energy technologies at the local level

Sustainability indicators have been broadly used to assess energy technologies both at the national and local levels. However, very few studies have addressed the issue of resilience of energy technologies. Moreover, there is a lack of an integrated framework that combines both sustainability and resilience indicators for the assessment of energy technologies. The aim of this paper is to present the development of an integrated framework of sustainability and resilience indicators for the assessment of low-carbon energy technologies at the local level in Europe. The selection of indicators is based on a modified ‘3S’ approach, composed of literature review, self-validation, scientific validation, and social validation. The study incorporates local stakeholders’ feedback on the selection and validation of evaluation criteria based on a European survey. The vast majority of respondents approved and validated the indicators that were selected through the internal and experts’ validation steps.     

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies via social indicators: Results of a survey among European energy experts

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies oftentimes fails to account for social repercussions and long-term negative effects and benefits of energy systems. As part of the NEEDS¹ project, an expert-based set of social indicators was developed and verified by the European stakeholders with the objective of contributing in the development of social indicators for the assessment of societal effects of energy systems. For this purpose, scientific experts from four sample countries France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland were interviewed to assess 16 different energy systems on a specific stakeholder reviewed indicator set. The indicator set covers the four main criteria: “security and reliability of energy provision; “political stability and legitimacy”; “social and individual risks” and “quality of life”. This article will review the process of indicator development and assessment and highlight results for today's most prominent and future energy technologies and some likely to make an impact in the future. Expert judgments varied considerably between countries and energy systems, with the exception of renewable technologies, which were overall positively assessed on almost all evaluation criteria.     

The energy and environmental implications of UK more electric transition pathways: A whole systems perspective

Electricity generation contributes a large proportion of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the predominant use of fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) inputs. Indeed, the various power sector technologies [fossil fuel plants with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power stations, and renewable energy technologies (available on a large and small {or domestic} scale)] all involve differing environmental impacts and other risks. Three transition pathways for a more electric future out to 2050 have therefore been evaluated in terms of their life-cycle energy and environmental performance within a broader sustainability framework. An integrated approach is used here to assess the impact of such pathways, employing both energy analysis and environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA), applied on a ‘whole systems’ basis: from ‘cradle-to-gate’. The present study highlights the significance of ‘upstream emissions’, in contrast to power plant operational or ‘stack’ emissions, and their (technological and policy) implications. Upstream environmental burdens arise from the need to expend energy resources in order to deliver, for example, fuel to a power station. They include the energy requirements for extraction, processing/refining, transport, and fabrication, as well as methane leakage that occurs in coal mining activities – a major cotribution – and from natural gas pipelines. The impact of upstream emissions on the carbon performance of various low carbon electricity generators [such as large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) plant and CCS] and the pathways distinguish the present findings from those of other UK analysts. It suggests that CCS is likely to deliver only a 70% reduction in carbon emissions on a whole system basis, in contrast to the normal presumption of a 90% reduction. Similar results applied to other power generators.     

Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is the most powerful predictor of high-cost scenarios.     

The public perspective of carbon capture and storage for CO2 emission reductions in China

To explore public awareness of carbon capture and storage (CCS), attitudes towards the use of CCS and the determinants of CCS acceptance in China, a study was conducted in July 2009 based on face-to-face interviews with participants across the country. The result showed that the awareness of CCS was low among the surveyed public in China, compared to other clean energy technologies. Respondents indicated a slightly supportive attitude towards the use of CCS as an alternative technology to CO₂ emission reductions. The regression model revealed that in addition to CCS knowledge, respondents’ understanding of the characteristics of CCS, such as the maturity of the technology, risks, capability of CO2 emission reductions, and CCS policy were all significant factors in predicting the acceptance of CCS. The findings suggest that integrating public education and communication into CCS development policy would be an effective strategy to overcome the barrier of low public acceptance.     

A framework for environmental assessment of CO2 capture and storage systems

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly seen as a way for society to enjoy the benefits of fossil fuel energy sources while avoiding the climate disruption associated with fossil CO₂ emissions. A decision to deploy CCS technology at scale should be based on robust information on its overall costs and benefits. Life-cycle assessment (LCA) is a framework for holistic assessment of the energy and environmental footprint of a system, and can provide crucial information to policy-makers, scientists, and engineers as they develop and deploy CCS systems. We identify seven key issues that should be considered to ensure that conclusions and recommendations from CCS LCA are robust: energy penalty, functional units, scale-up challenges, non-climate environmental impacts, uncertainty management, policy-making needs, and market effects. Several recent life-cycle studies have focused on detailed assessments of individual CCS technologies and applications. While such studies provide important data and information on technology performance, such case-specific data are inadequate to fully inform the decision making process. LCA should aim to describe the system-wide environmental implications of CCS deployment at scale, rather than a narrow analysis of technological performance of individual power plants.     

Carbon capture and storage at scale: Lessons from the growth of analogous energy technologies

At present carbon capture and storage (CCS) is very expensive and its performance is highly uncertain at the scale of commercial power plants. Such challenges to deployment, though, are not new to students of technological change. Several successful technologies, including energy technologies, have faced similar challenges as CCS faces now. To draw lessons for the CCS industry from the history of other energy technologies that, as with CCS today, were risky and expensive early in their commercial development, we have analyzed the development of the US nuclear-power industry, the US SO₂-scrubber industry, and the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. Through analyzing the development of the analogous industries we arrive at three principal observations. First, government played a decisive role in the development of all of these analogous technologies. Second, diffusion of these technologies beyond the early demonstration and niche projects hinged on the credibility of incentives for industry to invest in commercial-scale projects. Third, the conventional wisdom that experience with technologies inevitably reduces costs does not necessarily hold. Risky and capital-intensive technologies may be particularly vulnerable to diffusion without accompanying reductions in cost.     

Viability of CCS: A broad-based assessment for Malaysia

Climate change is fast becoming the major environmental and energy concern worldwide. There is a major dilemma between the continued reliance on fossil fuel for our energy supply and the pressing need to address the problem of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from combustion process. This paper reviews the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a part of the climate change mitigation strategy for the Malaysian electricity sector using a technology assessment framework. The nation's historical trend of high reliance on fossil fuel for its electricity sector makes it a prime candidate for CCS adoption. The suitability and practicality of the technology was reviewed from a broad perspective with consideration of Malaysia-specific conditions. It is apparent from this assessment that CCS has the potential to play an important role in Malaysia's climate change mitigation strategy provided that key criteria are fulfilled.     

How carbon pricing changes the relative competitiveness of low-carbon baseload generating technologies

There is wide public debate about which electricity generating technologies will best be suited to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Sometimes this debate ignores real-world practicalities and leads to over-optimistic conclusions. Here we define and apply a set of fit-for-service criteria to identify technologies capable of supplying baseload electricity and reducing GHGs by amounts and within the timescale set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Only five current technologies meet these criteria: coal (both pulverised fuel and integrated gasification combined cycle) with carbon capture and storage (CCS); combined cycle gas turbine with CCS; Generation III nuclear fission; and solar thermal backed by heat storage and gas turbines. To compare costs and performance, we undertook a meta-review of authoritative peer-reviewed studies of levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and life-cycle GHG emissions for these technologies. Future baseload electricity technology selection will be influenced by the total cost of technology substitution, including carbon pricing, which is synergistically related to both LCOE and emissions. Nuclear energy is the cheapest option and best able to meet the IPCC timetable for GHG abatement. Solar thermal is the most expensive, while CCS will require rapid major advances in technology to meet that timetable.     

Evaluating the development of carbon capture and storage technologies in the United States

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as an important solution to solve the twin challenge of reducing GHG emissions, while utilizing fossil fuel reserves to meet future energy requirements. In this study an innovation systems perspective is applied to review the development of CCS technologies in the US between 2000 and 2009 and to come up with policy recommendations for technology managers that wish to accelerate the deployment of CCS. The analysis describes the successful built-up of an innovation system around CCS and pinpoints the key determinants for this achievement. However, the evaluation of the system's performance also indicates that America's leading role in the development of CCS should not be taken for granted. It shows that the large CCS R&D networks, as well as the extensive CCS knowledge base, which have been accumulated over the past decade, have not yet been valorized by entrepreneurs to explore the market for integrated CCS concepts linked to power generation. Therefore, it is argued that the build-up of the innovation system has entered a critical phase that is decisive for a further thriving development of CCS technologies in the US. This study provides a clear understanding of the current barriers to the technology's future deployment and outlines a policy strategy that (1) stimulates technological learning; (2) facilitates collaboration and coordination in CCS actor networks; (3) creates financial and market incentives for the technology; and (4) provides supportive regulation and sound communication on CCS.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

Development of an Energy‐Economic Model with Endogenous Technological Progress and Feasibility Study of CCS Systems

The main objective of this research is to develop a bottom‐up energy‐economic model considering endogenous technological development. The designed model analyzes the feasibility of CCS technologies in the Japanese electricity market to derive an optimum carbon reduction scenario. Two factors, a learning curve based on learning‐by‐doing and public R&D investment, precede technological progress. The analysis is calculated with a set of scenarios, which is based on alternative assumptions for technological characteristics: chemical and physical carbon absorptive technology. From modeling estimation, we conclude that technological progress reduces the generation costs of conversion technologies with CCS, as a CCS system acquires an additional unit of installation. Generation cost with chemical absorption remarkably reduces its marginal unit cost through a learning mechanism. The supply fraction from a gas‐fired power plant increases over the analytical time period. The introduction of CCS reduces carbon emission level 17% compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological progress has little impact on the total system costs; however, learning‐by‐doing pushes the introduction of CCS into the market rather than into a R&D activity. Research and development efforts in the private sector or knowledge spillover are not modeled in the study; however, they have the potential to contribute to the mitigation of carbon emission as well. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Heat Trans Asian Res, 43(4): 332–351, 2014; Published online 3 October 2013 in Wiley Online Library ( wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/htj ). DOI 10.1002/htj.21078     

Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?

An analytical job creation model for the US power sector from 2009 to 2030 is presented. The model synthesizes data from 15 job studies covering renewable energy (RE), energy efficiency (EE), carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power. The paper employs a consistent methodology of normalizing job data to average employment per unit energy produced over plant lifetime. Job losses in the coal and natural gas industry are modeled to project net employment impacts. Benefits and drawbacks of the methodology are assessed and the resulting model is used for job projections under various renewable portfolio standards (RPS), EE, and low carbon energy scenarios We find that all non-fossil fuel technologies (renewable energy, EE, low carbon) create more jobs per unit energy than coal and natural gas. Aggressive EE measures combined with a 30% RPS target in 2030 can generate over 4 million full-time-equivalent job-years by 2030 while increasing nuclear power to 25% and CCS to 10% of overall generation in 2030 can yield an additional 500,000 job-years.     

Analysis of coffee cut-stems (CCS) as raw material for fuel ethanol production

Coffee cut-stems (CCS) represent a promising candidate for fuel ethanol production in tropical countries because of their high availability and high biomass yield per hectare. In this work, pretreatment of this agricultural residue with dilute sulfuric acid and liquid hot water (LHW) was integrated in the simulation and economic assessment of the process for fuel ethanol production. High reducing sugars concentration and ethanol yields were obtained with the LHW pretreatment at a high energy cost. Acid pretreatment is still one of the most applied technologies for lignocellulosic materials due to its efficiency and lower energy consumption. For the determination of the pollution environmental impact index of the process with and without cogeneration system, the Waste Reduction Algorithm (WAR) was used. Thus, the high lignin and low water contents of the coffee cut-stems signified a high potential for energy cogeneration.     

Can ‘negative net CO2 emissions’ from decarbonised biogas-to-electricity contribute to solving Poland’s carbon capture and sequestration dilemmas?

The article analyses to what extent ‘negative net CO₂ emissions’ from decarbonised biogas-to-electricity can contribute to solving Poland’s carbon capture and sequestration dilemmas. From the criteria-based evaluation of low-carbon power technologies it is found, that biogas-to-electricity is among technologies having increasing production potential in Poland. Therefore, in future biogas will be able to contribute to solving Poland’s CCS dilemmas, because it offers carbon-neutral electricity. Moreover, by applying CCS into biogas-to-electricity the ‘negative net CO₂ emissions’ can be achieved. The article examines three biogas-to-electricity technologies involving CO₂ capture, i.e. biogas-to-biomethane, biogas-to-CHP and biogas-to-electricity via the ORFC cycle. It is emphasised that the ORFC cycle offers low-cost CO₂ separation from a CO₂-H₂ mixture, low O₂-intensity, and the opportunities for advanced mass and energy integration of involved processes. Besides, energy conversion calculations show that the ORFC cycle can offer comparable cycle efficiency with air- and oxy-combustion combined cycles. In regard to the design of biogas-based energy systems it is recommended to include (i) distributed production of biogas in order to avoid costs of long-distance transportation of high-moisture content biomass and (ii) centralised large-scale decarbonised biogas-to-electricity power plants since costs of pipeline transportation of gases are low but large-scale plants could benefit from increased energy and CCS efficiencies.     

Catalyzing strategic transformation to a low-carbon economy: A CCS roadmap for China

China now faces the three hard truths of thirsting for more oil, relying heavily on coal, and ranking first in global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Given these truths, two key questions must be addressed to develop a low-carbon economy: how to use coal in a carbon-constrained future? How to increase domestic oil supply to enhance energy security? Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may be a technological solution that can deal with today's energy and environmental needs while enabling China to move closer to a low-carbon energy future. This paper has been developed to propose a possible CCS roadmap for China. To develop the roadmap, we first explore major carbon capture opportunities in China and then identify critical CCS-enabling technologies, as well as analyze their current status and future prospects. We find that coal gasification or polygeneration in combination with CCS could be a nearly unbeatable combination for China's low-carbon future. Even without CCS, gasification offers many benefits: once coal is gasified into syngas, it can be used for many different purposes including for alternative fuels production, thereby increasing the domestic oil supply and the flexibility of the energy system.     

Strategy for promoting low-carbon technology transfer to developing countries: The case of CCS

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the critical enabling technology that would reduce CO₂ emissions significantly while also allowing fossil fuels to meet the world’s pressing energy needs. The International Energy Agency analysis shows that although the developed world must lead the CCS effort in the next decade, there is an urgent need to spread CCS to the developing world. Given technologies for reducing GHG emissions originate mainly in developed countries, technology transfer, as an important feature emphasized by both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, therefore has a key role to play in bridging a gap between developed and developing countries. The main objective of this paper is to explore potential policies and schemes promoting the transfer of CCS technologies to developing countries. First, it reviews the global CCS status, analyzes the significant gap of CCS in developed and developing countries, and investigates stakeholder perceptions of diffusing CCS to China, which is a major developing country and a significant potential candidate for large-scale CCS deployment; then the authors make an attempt to understand technology transfer including its benefits, barriers, and definition. The UNFCCC explicitly commits the developed (Annex I) countries to provide financial and technical support to developing countries under favorable terms. The authors argue that the ultimate goal of technology transfer should not only be limited to apply CCS in developing countries, but also to enhance their endogenous capabilities, which will enable future innovation and ensure long-term adoption of low-carbon technologies. As a result, the authors propose a four-pronged approach to the transfer of CCS technologies, which involves physical transfer of explicit technologies, a financial mechanism, endogenous capacity building, and a monitoring mechanism. Concrete enhanced actions to promote CCS technology transfer are also proposed. The four-pronged approach and related enhanced actions proposed in this paper are also applicable to other low-carbon technology transfer.     

Costing electricity supply scenarios: A case study of promoting renewable energy technologies on Rodriguez, Mauritius

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) import increasing amounts of fossil fuel to meet their rising energy demand. This places an unnecessary financial burden on their budget, as abundant Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are often available. The introduction of Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) can harness these resources, providing sufficient electricity as well as maintaining a high degree of independence. However, one of the principle barriers to their application has been the high cost of installing them. This paper argues that the economics of instigating RETs on SIDS are potentially favourable over the application of fossil fuel technologies if the full life-cycle costs are considered. A case study conducted in 2001, modelling three alternative electricity provision scenarios on Rodrigues, Mauritius supports these assumptions. The findings are based on a comparative economic model using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analyses, as well as a variety of sensitivity analyses, to predict changing economic environments. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of energy policy and planning. This work is part of a tripartite research project that connects the economics with renewable resources assessment and a multi criteria analysis investigating the social and environmental consequences to provide a transferable framework assessment of renewable energy supply options on SIDS.