中国新一轮电力改革十问

本文采用了问答的形式,总结了在前三十年的改革开放中,电力部门的市场化改革取得的巨大成绩和经验。本文指出,电力部门需要继续推动新一轮改革,以应对气候变化、环境保护和节约资源的严峻挑战,以及克服市场化所遗留的问题。作者强调,优化结构、提高效率、减低成本、提供消费者可负担起的、绿色低碳的电力服务是新一轮电力改革的目标。本文认为切忌从理论条条出发和迷信市场竞争力为灵丹妙药,分析如何把市场机制和加强监管紧密结合起来,走出一条符合中国国情的电力可持续发展的道路。作者建议在推动"竞价上网"环节,使环境成本价格化,供应端和需求端参与电力服务竞争,满足可再生能源市场份额制,鼓励清洁电源发展和降低煤电比例和控制煤炭消费总量,达到电力结构的清洁、绿色和低碳化。在"输配电"环节,充实和加强国家电监会的价格监管和社会责任监管。电网公司要保障电力供应安全,实施绿色节能调度和完成节电目标。电网公司管理系统要扁平化、分散化、透明化和一体化。大力发展超智能电网和信息通信技术。     

Brazil: Enough wind for everyone

With the imminent introduction of a new Brazilian energy law that, if passed, will lay the foundations for a thriving renewable energy market, many eyes are now on Brazil with several renewable energy companies around the world making moves to establish a base in the region. Energy demand in this developing area is increasing rapidly each year and energy suppliers from all sectors look set to get a piece of the action.     

Why the oil companies lost solar

Solar energy is a growing source of electricity supply. Oil companies including BP and Shell recognized this early on and entered the solar industry when it was still in its relative infancy. These companies invested heavily in vertically integrated solar companies that were at one point among the largest in the world. But neither BP nor Shell was successful, and they both decided to exit the solar market. This stands as a paradox since such companies have the funds, the long-term perspectives, the management systems, the multinational presence and the lobbying clout to potentially succeed in this new energy industry. Why were they not successful, and why did they ultimately exit? This paper uses innovation theory to explore the reasons why large incumbent corporations typically fail to succeed in commercializing disruptive innovations at scale. Evidence from semi-structured interviews and discussions with former employees of BP Solar and Shell Solar confirm the explanatory power of key constructs from innovation theory in accounting for the big oil companies' experience with solar technology. Ultimately, the findings suggest that oil companies would have done better to treat their solar businesses as separate stand-alone entities.     

资源国本土化政策对国际石油公司权益的影响——基于对尼日利亚油气工业本土化法案的解读

尼日利亚于2010年4月22日正式颁布实施《尼日利亚油气工业本土化发展法案》,通过法律手段刚性地规定了在尼国际石油公司必须高比例地使用尼日利亚的人力、物力资源和服务,以促进其整体经济能力的增长。该法案规定所有项目参与者都必须制定本土化发展计划、雇工与培训计划、研究与开发方案,总预算超过1亿美元的合同都必须制定劳工条款,尼日利亚人应占据全部中、初级岗位,法律、财务和保险等专业服务都只能由尼日利亚公司提供,并要接受管理委员会的监督。放弃了最低价中标的原则,从而保证具有执行合同能力的尼日利亚本土公司不至于因为其不是最低价而没有中标。同时建立了联合资格认证制度和专业服务石油网络市场。由于对法案心存疑虑,一部分国际石油公司暂停了在尼日利亚的新投资,甚至将主要投资转向其他国家,还有一部分公司制定了应对策略。中国石油公司对此应高度重视、深入研究,并指派专人负责;在项目招标、评标和签订合同时应灵活应变,转移风险;提早筹划,尽最大力量早日建产;同时应尽早进入尼物资采购电子市场与联合认证系统数据库。     

The development of a green certificate market

Liberalizing the electricity industry and attempting to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases are the two dominant trends in European energy policy. The last-mentioned issue might require the contribution from renewable energy technologies, but at present most renewables cannot compete on their own with conventional technologies. Thus, it can be expected that if renewables must compete solely on market conditions alone this will slow down or even halt the development of new renewable capacity. One model in which additional payments to renewable technologies are generated is based on the development of a separate green market. In Holland a voluntary green certificate market has existed since the beginning of 1998. In Denmark a comprehensive restructuring of the legislation for the electric power industry has just been completed, including the framework for developing a separate green market for renewable electricity production. The main objectives of introducing this type of electricity market in Denmark is to secure the development of renewable energy technologies (including contributions to greenhouse gas reductions), while at the same time releasing the Government from the (by now) quite heavy burden of subsidising renewable technologies. Finally, a green market will make it possible for these renewable technologies to be partly economically compensated for the environmental benefits, which they generate compared to conventional power production. With the recent Danish legislation as starting point this paper analyzes possible ways to set up a green certificate market, treating as well some of the consequences produced when the market is actually funtioning. The analysis is applicable for all renewable technologies, but special attention is given to wind power.     

Web-enabling applications for outsourced computing

The business of information has exploded since the birth of the Internet in the early 1960s. Advances in software and hardware engineering have transformed the role of the Internet from merely data and information delivery to the largest computing service delivery infrastructure in history. This transformation has created a gradual shift toward distributed computing and the application service provider (ASP) model for computing service delivery. The ASP market is largely driven by the increasing popularity of browser-based computing and the growing tendency for companies to outsource mission-critical functions. Advantages of the ASP model include reduced installation and support requirements, instant updates and synchronization, mass customization, and universal accessibility. Despite the obvious benefits, the ASP model has not yet gained momentum in power engineering, where most applications still conform to the traditional, standalone, three-tier architecture. The methodology featured in this article takes a traditional engineering application and Web-enables it for the ASP market. The article describes the architecture of traditional and enterprise applications and presents the technologies and issues involved in deploying a traditional engineering application over the Internet.     

Supplier choice and WTP for electricity attributes in an emerging market: The role of perceived past experience,environmental concern and energy saving behavior

This study analyzes customers' preferences and their willingness to pay (WTP) for certain service attributes in an electricity supplier choice context. Specifically, a stated preference choice experiment is conducted in the Canary Islands' residential market where limited competition exists. Preferences for different electricity suppliers and three level-of-service attributes are investigated, namely, supply reliability, share of renewable energies and availability of a complementary energy audit service. The results might be interpreted as an indication of different aspects new firms need to consider if they plan to enter in the market. There is an opportunity for new companies to establish in the market, though evidence of brand loyalty to the current company and/or significant switching costs are also found, especially in the case of older people. Regarding the estimated WTP, several results should be highlighted. First, customers who have experienced more serious outages in the past tend to show a higher WTP to reduce the outage frequency. Second, highly-educated respondents, those who state a great concern for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and those who carry out energy saving actions in their homes exhibit a larger WTP for renewable energies. This empirical evidence provides useful information for authorities responsible for energy policy design.     

能效电厂项目市场运作模式及保障机制研究

为拓宽能效电厂项目的市场化运作渠道,完善其市场运作机制,提出了合同能源管理模式、超级能源服务公司模式、节能设备租赁模式、金融机构节能资金贷款模式、私募资金管理模式等5种能效电厂的市场运作模式,进而构建了能效电厂项目效益评估框架,并结合国内能效电厂项目运营情况,从政策、市场、投融资等6个方面提出能效电厂项目市场运作保障机制建议。     

“十二五”节能服务产业发展前景与趋势

《国务院关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》明确宣布国家将重点培育和发展节能环保产业等七大战略性新兴产业,而节能服务产业属于节能环保产业范畴,被寄予引领整个节能环保产业发展的厚望。加快推行合同能源管理、加快发展节能服务产业是"十二五"加快经济转型的战略选择和迫切要求。我国现有的节能服务产业发展支持政策可归结为法律法规支持、行政规章支持、专项财政支持以及规划引导和工程推动等4类,这些政策的制定和施行为"十二五"期间我国节能服务产业的快速发展营造了较好的政策环境。"十二五"期间,我国节能服务市场需求的驱动力来自市场驱动和政策驱动两个方面,全社会对节能服务的市场需求巨大。届时节能服务公司数量将经历一个先增后减的过程,"十二五"后期全国公司数量将为1500家左右,有大型企业背景的节能服务公司可能带来不公平竞争,跨国公司或将成为我国节能服务市场重要的竞争参与者;节能服务市场的开发将主要集中在工业领域,同时在建筑领域业务活动将有所加强,东、中、西部节能服务市场开发的差距将缩小,节能服务市场将进一步细分。     

Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market-A state-of-the-art review

The electricity market has since 1980s been gradually evolving from a monopoly market into a liberalized one for encouraging competition and improving efficiency. This brings the opportunity for generation companies (GenCos) to make more profits while embracing more risks of not being dispatched. Therefore, it has become a core interest for the GenCos to develop optimal bidding strategies to maximize the profits and minimize the risks while participating in such a competitive market. The literature pertaining to this issue has grown rapidly in recent years, and many different modeling approaches, such as mathematical programming, game theory, and agent-based models, have been investigated under the liberalized market environment. Meanwhile, along with the increasing penetration of renewable energy, the electricity market is facing more complexity and stochasticity from both uncertain generation and dynamic demands. The intermittent and unsteady nature of these renewable power sources motivates the GenCos to further optimize their bidding strategy by considering the new constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive literature analysis on the state-of-the-art research of bidding strategy modeling methods.     

A new self-scheduling strategy for integrated operation of wind and pumped-storage power plants in power markets

Competitive structure of power markets causes various challenges for wind resources to participate in these markets. Indeed, production uncertainty is the main cause of their low income. Thus, they are usually supported by system operators, which is in contrast with the competitive paradigm of power markets. In this paper, a new strategy for increasing the profits of wind resources is proposed. In the suggested strategy, a Generation Company (GenCo), who owns both wind and pumped-storage plants, self-schedules the integrated operation of them regarding the uncertainty of wind power generation. For presenting an integrated self-schedule and obtaining a real added value of the strategy, participation of the GenCo in energy and ancillary service markets is modeled. The self-scheduling strategy is based on stochastic programming techniques. Outputs of the problem include generation offers in day-ahead energy market and ancillary service markets, including spinning and regulation reserve markets. A Neural Network (NN) based technique is used for modeling the uncertainty of wind power production. The proposed strategy is tested on a real wind farm in mainland, Spain. Moreover, added value of the strategy is presented in different conditions of the market.     

Technology's role in our changing industry [electricity supplyindustry]

This article outlines American Electric Power's (AEP) perspective of the future utility company and the main competitive forces impacting that future, as well as AEP's business strategy. It also emphasizes the importance of technology in shaping that future for the energy delivery business. Electricity is a growth industry, both in absolute usage as well as in percentage of total energy consumption. Various reputable research organizations have projected that the world electricity demand will increase fourfold within the next half century. In the United States, electricity as a percentage of energy consumption will increase from the current 37 percent to perhaps as much as 60 percent in the same time frame. The primary reason for this growth is the fact that electricity is the most refined and controllable of all energy forms. The future landscape of the energy business is changing at an accelerated pace. When it settles down, in perhaps five to ten years, there will likely remain a diversity of competitors which include large national/international energy providers, a number of integrated BTU companies, regional energy providers as well as a variety of niche players. While each competitor will pursue its own strategy, the winners will share some common attributes. They will be competent, but more than competent, they will be highly innovative. They will be visionary with a focus on things they do very well. They will be aggressive in capitalizing on their strengths. These companies will be ethical because good ethics is good business. In other words, they will be strategically savvy     

A heuristic-based approach for reliability importance assessment of energy producers

Reliability of energy supply is one of the most important issues of service quality. On one hand, customers usually have different expectations for service reliability and price. On the other hand, providing different level of reliability at load points is a challenge for system operators. In order to take reasonable decisions and obviate reliability implementation difficulties, market players need to know impacts of their assets on system and load-point reliabilities. One tool to specify reliability impacts of assets is the criticality or reliability importance measure by which system components can be ranked based on their effect on reliability. Conventional methods for determination of reliability importance are essentially on the basis of risk sensitivity analysis and hence, impose prohibitive calculation burden in large power systems. An approach is proposed in this paper to determine reliability importance of energy producers from perspective of consumers or distribution companies in a composite generation and transmission system. In the presented method, while avoiding immense computational burden, the energy producers are ranked based on their rating, unavailability and impact on power flows in the lines connecting to the considered load points. Study results on the IEEE reliability test system show successful application of the proposed method.     

金融危机冲击与俄罗斯能源政策调整

愈演愈烈的国际金融危机给俄罗斯带来巨大冲击。俄罗斯经济陷入衰退、金融形势迅速恶化、实体经济遭遇冲击、债务负担异常沉重,俄罗斯油气行业也风光不再。在严峻挑战面前,俄罗斯对能源政策进行调整,采取多种措施继续推进“能源超级大国”的构建。对内以多种手段减轻俄罗斯油气公司负担,维系、培育企业的生存力与竞争力;对外根据新的形势调整能源外交策略,维系海外能源利益,提升能源大国地位。     

节能服务 持续发展——中国节能协会节能服务产业委员会宗旨

本文介绍了中国节能协会节能服务产业委员会(简称EMCA)的筹备和成立的背景和基本情况,重点介绍了EMCA的宗旨和今后的主要工作设想。在世界银行和全球环境基金等国际机构的支持下,引进、示范和推广国外的基于市场的《合同能源管理》节能新机制,发展更多的节能服务公司(EMCo),形成中国的节能服务产业,这对中国的节能领域是一种新的理念、新的尝试。特别是近年来,我国电力、石油等能源供需矛盾比较突出,节能的必要性和重要性逐步为更多的人们所真正认识,EMCA的成立,适应了这种新形势的要求。让我们共同努力,办好EMCA,实现EMCA的宗旨,促进更多的新节能服务公司涌现出来,同时,节能服务的内容更加丰富多样,真正形成健康的可持续发展的中国节能服务产业。     

Review of technology in small-scale biomass combustion systems in the European market

This work studied the importance of wood pellets, chips and wood logs for small- and medium-scale heat production. Pellet use can contribute substantially to reaching the renewable heat and electricity goals set by the European Union (EU) Renewable Energy Directive. Consequently, to integrate into European energy markets, pellet use must be a key piece of the EU energy policy.This study provides a wide perspective on the state-of-the-art small-scale biomass combustion units, particularly those that use pellets for fuel. Small-scale combustion units include stoves and boilers with capacities less than 200 kW. A wide market review has been conducted, including a review of the literature and information from manufacturers and test institutes. A database has been created, which includes 186 companies and offers 995 different models, providing an extensive view of the European market. The large number of new companies shows that the solid-fuel boiler market is continuously increasing across Europe. The technologies that are currently the most widely used are described and compared.     

Potential of trading wind power as regulation services in the California short-term electricity market

A short-term electricity market is usually composed of the energy market and ancillary service market. However, wind power is not allowed to be traded in ancillary service markets although it has been proven technically feasible to be regulation services. This paper aims to explore the market potential of trading wind power as regulation services in the California electricity market. A model for wind power trade in the day-ahead (DA) market is established considering the uncertainties of market prices and wind power. An optimal trading strategy for wind power producers is derived by using an analytical algorithm. Trading wind power as regulation is tested by using actual data and the impacts of market control on the market outcome are discussed. The results show that, based on the current framework of the California electricity market, wind power producers can earn much more money if they bid in the DA energy and regulation markets than if they only bid in the DA energy market. The results also show that the potential to enhance profit for wind power producers is larger in the regulation down market than in the regulation up market.     

户用沼气商业化发展机制探索与应用——湖南省常德市沼气发展个案分析

在许多地区,由于农户收入水平较低,沼气建设过分依赖政府补贴,能源服务公司的经营管理能力及融资能力都比较差,导致当地沼气行业发展缓慢。为了改变这种局面,使沼气行业走上快速的发展道路,在世界自然基金会的资助下,北京天恒可持续发展研究所以湖南常德地区为试点制定并实施了沼气商业化发展机制,并根据实际情况不断完善机制的内容,使其具有广泛推广使用价值。在这一机制下,为能源服务公司提供了流动资金的支持和经营管理、技术的培训,提高了其经营管理能力和技术水平,为农户提供了延期支付服务,为银行开辟了新的信贷业务,通过宣传提高了农户对沼气的认识。同时,通过对具有成立能源服务公司潜在能力的技术、管理人员进行了有针对性的培训,协助他们成立民营能源服务公司,以期引进竞争机制,促进当地沼气行业的发展。根据项目的实施情况和进一步的发展目标,天恒所又对项目做出了改进,保证在项目资助方退出之前,使沼气产业走向市场化、规模化。     

Interaction among competitive producers in the electricity market: An iterative market model for the strategic management of thermal power plants

The liberalization of the electricity sector requires utilities to develop sound operation strategies for their power plants. In this paper, attention is focused on the problem of optimizing the management of the thermal power plants belonging to a strategic producer that competes with other strategic companies and a set of smaller non-strategic ones in the day-ahead market. The market model suggested here determines an equilibrium condition over the selected period of analysis, in which no producer can increase profits by changing its supply offers given all rivals’ bids. Power plants technical and operating constraints are considered. An iterative procedure, based on the dynamic programming, is used to find the optimum production plans of each producer. Some combinations of power plants and number of producers are analyzed, to simulate for instance the decommissioning of old expensive power plants, the installation of new more efficient capacity, the severance of large dominant producers into smaller utilities, the access of new producers to the market. Their effect on power plants management, market equilibrium, electricity quantities traded and prices is discussed.     

电力市场环境下风-水电联合优化运行策略研究

为了促进风电场在电力市场环境下的发展,提出了一种风-水电站联合参与电力市场优化运行的策略。该策略综合考虑了从日前能量市场及调节备用容量市场中取得的收益,以期望收益最大化为目标,加入了水电站运行的限制,建立了含全天24个时段的混合整数规划模型,通过求解模型得出了各市场中的最优能量及容量申报,并基于实际的水电站与风电场参数进行了算例仿真。测试结果表明,水电站与风电场联合运行可降低风电出力的随机性对收益的负面影响,经济效益明显;风电出力的波动、能量不平衡的惩罚系数等因素都会对结果造成影响。