自我框架对即时、延时决策的影响

目的拓展自我框架的相关研究,重点讨论在即时、延迟水平下,自我框架对风险决策的影响。方法以整群抽样的方式,抽取160名大学男生,随机分为即时决策组与延时决策组,采用亚洲疾病问题改编的自我框架问卷进行评测。结果自我框架对风险决策的影响部分显著,在即时决策组,自我框架情绪语气越积极,被试越容易选择确定性方案(χ2=4.17,P<0.05);当自我框架确定方案比风险方案情绪语气更积极,被试偏好确定性方案(χ2=6.72,P<0.01)。在延时决策组,自我框架对决策无显著影响。结论不同延迟水平下,自我框架对风险决策会产生不同的影响。     

An inexact stochastic–fuzzy jointed chance-constrained programming for regional energy system management under uncertainty

Environmental problems associated with socio-economic development have been a growing concern facing many regional and/or national authorities. However, effective planning may encounter difficulties since uncertainties existing in a number of impact factors and pollution-related processes are often not well acknowledged and reflected. Combining chance-constrained programming and fuzzy credibility-constrained programming with interval parameters and stochastic programming, this study advances an inexact stochastic–fuzzy jointed chance-constrained programming method for planning regional economic and environmental systems under multiple uncertainties presented as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. The developed method has been applied to a case of long-term energy management system with multiple energy resources and three communities. Emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are controlled and capacity expansion is scheduled. The results can help to identify desired alternatives for planning regional development strategies, where compromised schemes are provided under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental protection under multiple uncertainties.     

Robust interval linear programming for environmental decision making under uncertainty

In this study, a robust interval linear programming (RILP) method is developed for dealing with uncertainties expressed as intervals with deterministic boundaries. An enhanced two-step method (ETSM) is also advanced to solve the RILP model. The developed RILP improves upon the conventional interval linear programming (ILP) method since it can generate solution intervals within a larger feasible zone. The decision space based on ETSM contains all feasible solutions, such that no useful information is neglected. Moreover, the RILP can guarantee the stability of the optimization model due to no violation for the best-case constraints. The results also suggest that the RILP is effective for practical environmental and engineering problems that involve uncertainties.     

决策者具有重要性大小的群体冲突决策方法

讨论了利益冲突的多个决策者参与、决策者具有重要性程度不一的群冲突决策问题,给出了群冲突决策的一种解决方法.利用决策者之间的互相评价,给出了确定决策者重要性大小的方法;通过决策者之间的不断交互式决策过程,最后达到一致性意见,形成群体决策结果.给出的一个由四个决策者参与的群体冲突决策问题的实例,说明决策者重要性占优势时,最后的决策结果偏向于该决策者的结论.     

Embedding expert knowledge in a decision model: evaluating natural attenuation at TCE sites

This paper describes a generalized methodology that enables the translation of expert knowledge about any complex process involved in a remedial decision into easy-to-use decision tools. The methodology is applied to evaluate reductive dechlorination as a remedial possibility at sites contaminated with trichloroethene (TCE), building on an existing protocol/scoring system put forth by the US Air Force and the US EPA. An alternate scoring system is proposed, which has two major advantages, namely that it: (i) attributes relative weights to findings based on expert beliefs; and (ii) systematically includes negative weights for negative findings. The ability of the proposed scoring system to assess the bioattenuation potential of TCE is demonstrated using data from extensively studied sites.     

Evaluation

Synthesis and evaluation are the natural driving couple within design work. This is shown by experience as well as by field and laboratory study. Attempts have been made to derive a foundation for evaluation in terms of objectives or procedures. Such attempts range from Aristotle to Hall, the latter arguing for systems engineering. Although he made an apparently comprehensive approach he did not cover some possible sources of insights nor did he make useful suggestions about the application of principles to the detailed work of design. Design has now to deal with even more complex situations and perhaps there should be a policy for evaluation. Possible policies are discussed.     

CTO外部社会资本、CTO-CEO信任关系与CTO技术战略决策影响力关系研究

以中国高科技民营企业为研究对象,通过问卷调研考察了企业CTO个人外部社会资本与其技术战略决策影响力的关系,并探索了CTO与CEO的人际信任关系对该作用过程的影响.多元回归结果表明,CTO外部社会资本结构维、CTO-CEO信任关系与CTO技术战略决策影响力正相关;CTO-CEO信任关系对CTO外部社会资本关系维、认知维与CTO技术战略决策影响力之间的关系具有调节作用.表明CTO必须充分建立外部社会资本,并与CEO保持良好的人际信任关系,才能更好地在技术战略决策中发挥作用.     

Capacity building for trade impact assessment: lessons from the development of environmental impact assessment

This paper examines difficulties in creating capacity to undertake impact assessments of trade policy and possible approaches to overcoming them, particularly in developing countries. The assessment of trade agreements and related policies can be a highly complex task, involving many different specialist disciplines. Also, many hurdles have to be overcome to integrate an effective impact assessment process into policy- formulation and decision-making mechanisms. Difficulties in some ways similar, in other ways different, have been encountered in developing effective environmental impact assessment (EIA) systems. This paper reviews experience with EIA capacity-building, and considers how the lessons learned might be applied to initiatives to build capacity for the impact assessment of trade policy.     

多指标方案评价中群体一致性的判断和调整方法

基于模糊数学理论,在其它文献的基础上,提出了一种在多指标单方案评价中群体一致性的判断和调整方法。分别构造了隶属函数来表达群决策中的“大多数”和“一致性”这两个模糊变量,并提出“综合权重”这一概念来表示任意一对专家整体的重要性;论述了通过两种不同的途径判断群体一致性以及在一致性程度不满意时调整的方法;通过一个客户订单评价的群决策算例论证了该算法的有效性。     

What to do next: Using problem status to determine the course of action

Formal decision support tools are little used in engineering design. This paper explores the reasons for this and presents a method which is tailored to problems characterized by teams of stakeholders with inconsistent views who generate multiple alternatives and criteria, and who work to reach consensus. This method is especially designed to support activity when much of the information is qualitative, immature, and there is a diversity of views. The methodology assists the team in determining which alternative attributes to invest time in refining in their effort to reach consensus. The underlying mathematical structure (a Bayesian model of multi-attribute team decision making) is presented. This model supports team member belief about an alternative's ability to meet a criteria on two dimensions, knowledge and confidence. The methodology forces recording the rationale used to reach the final decision. A running example is used to explain the details.This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation under grant DDM-931996. The opinions in this paper are the authors' and do not reflect the position of the NSF or Oregon State University.     

随机需求下鲜活农产品RFID技术投资决策研究

考虑一个零售商和一个生产商组成的单周期两级鲜活农产品供应链,采用RFID技术可以明显改善鲜活农产品的新鲜度和实体损耗;讨论了消费者需求随机的情况下RFID标签成本对供应链上下游企业利润的影响;分析了RFID技术使用前后集中型和分散型供应链模型中各方的最优期望利润、订货量等问题;计算出两类模型中RFID技术标签成本的临界值。结果表明,集中型和分散型供应链模型,零售商和生产商可承担的RFID技术标签成本临界值相同;RFID技术对新鲜度和实体损耗改善越明显,企业投资的意愿越强。     

数据挖掘与最优化结合的理论方法体系与问题求解模型

在研究了已有数据挖掘的过程模型的基础上,提出了数据挖掘与最优化结合的理论方法体系和支持最终决策分析的管理问题求解模型,目标是有效地将各种数据挖掘技术与最优化方法在实际应用中有机地结合起来,并为复杂的管理决策分析问题求解和决策实施提供一个切实可行的参考模型。通过在客户群决策分析中的应用,验证了提出的方法和模型的可行性和有效性。     

A multi-objective mixed-integer programming model for a multi-floor facility layout

We consider a multi-floor facility layout problem in which the overall length and width of the facility, the size and location of each department, the number and the location of elevators and the number of floors in the facility are all modelled as decision variables. We adapt a linear approximation scheme to represent the area of each department. We consider two objective functions in our model, namely minimising material handling and facility building costs, and propose a lexicographic ordering technique to handle multiple objectives. The numerical experiments show that the slack used in the lexicographic ordering approach has a significant impact on the optimal solution. The experiments also show that the material handling cost can be significantly reduced in a multi-floor facility compared with a single-floor facility.