Fatal accidents at railway level crossings in Great Britain 1946-2009

This paper investigates fatal accidents and fatalities at level crossings in Great Britain over the 64-year period 1946–2009. The numbers of fatal accidents and fatalities per year fell by about 65% in the first half of that period, but since then have remained more or less constant at about 11 fatal accidents and 12 fatalities per year. At the same time other types of railway fatalities have fallen, so level crossings represent a growing proportion of the total. Nevertheless, Britain's level crossing safety performance remains good by international standards.The paper classifies level crossings into three types: railway-controlled, automatic, and passive. The safety performance of the three types of crossings has been very different. Railway-controlled crossings are the best-performing crossing type, with falling fatal accident rates. Automatic crossings have higher accident rates per crossing than railway controlled or passive crossings, and the accident rates have not decreased. Passive crossings are by far the most numerous, but many have low usage by road users. Their fatal accident rate has remained remarkably constant over the whole period at about 0.9 fatal accidents per 1000 crossings per year.A principal reason why fatal accidents and fatalities have not fallen in the second half of the period as they did in the first half is the increase in the number of automatic crossings, replacing the safer railway controlled crossings on some public roads. However, it does not follow that this replacement was a mistake, because automatic crossings have advantages over controlled crossings in reducing delays to road users and in not needing staff.Based on the trends for each type of crossing and for pedestrian and non-pedestrian accidents separately, in 2009 a mean of about 5% of fatal accidents were at railway controlled crossings, 52% were at automatic crossings, and 43% were at passive crossings. Fatalities had similar proportions. About 60% of fatalities were to pedestrians.A simple comparison of automatic railway level crossings and signalised road intersections found that in 2005 the numbers of fatalities per 1000 crossings or intersections were similar.     

Impact of gender, age and experience of pilots on general aviation accidents

General aviation (GA) accounts for more than 82% of all air transport-related accidents and air transport-related fatalities in the U.S. In this study, we conduct a series of statistical analyses to investigate the significance of a pilot's gender, age and experience in influencing the risk for pilot errors and fatalities in GA accidents. There is no evidence from the Chi-square tests and logistic regression models that support the likelihood of an accident caused by pilot error to be related to pilot gender. However, evidence is found that male pilots, those older than 60 years of age, and with more experience, are more likely to be involved in a fatal accident.     

Consequences of major accidents: assessing the number of injured people

Quantitative risk assessment studies of accident scenarios usually involve estimating the number of fatalities that can be expected. The number of people injured, however, is seldom evaluated because it implies significant additional effort and often the information required to perform this evaluation is not available. However, the number of injured people can be very important for emergency planning, especially in relatively large accidents. In this paper, a set of 975 accidents were selected for analysis, with the aim of searching for a relationship between the number of people killed and the number of people injured. As the data were scattered, principal component analysis and clustering analysis were applied to identify the data subsets that could undergo a selective, specific statistical treatment. Further treatment of these subsets led to mathematical expressions that are used to estimate the probable number of injured people as a function of the number of fatalities for all accidents, as well as for gas cloud, fire and explosion events, respectively.     

An analysis of fatal bicycle accidents in Victoria (Australia) with a special reference to nighttime accidents

This paper examines the fatal bicycle accidents which occurred in the period 1981-1984 in Victoria with particular emphasis on nighttime fatalities. The examination provides information on aspects of accident location, environment, problem type, time, and cyclist characteristics. The relationship between actual accidents and cyclists perceived collision danger is also investigated. The characteristics of fatal bicycle accidents are different to those of overall "casualty" accidents. A difference also exists between day and night, and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan fatal accidents. In the metropolitan area, adult cyclists over 17 years were over-involved in fatal accidents. The proportion of cyclists involved in fatalities at night increases with increase in age. Almost 80% of nighttime accidents occurred on links on arterial roads, and the majority in the high speed limit zones (75 kph and over). A greater proportion of accidents was initiated by cyclists. In 90% of nighttime cyclist fatalities the cyclist was hit from the rear, compared with 40% in daytime. Inadequacy of bicycle and street lighting was found to be an important factor in nighttime fatalities.     

Impact of safety belt use on road accident injury and injury type in Kuwait

The enactment of Kuwait's seat belt law in January 1994 provided an opportunity to examine the impact of seat belt use on road accident fatalities and injury types in this affluent Persian Gulf nation. Via a structured data form, the results of injurious/fatal road accidents for more than 1200 accident victims were gathered from the files of the six major government hospitals which treat most traffic accident victims. Statistical analysis of the data showed that seat belt use has had a positive effect in reducing both road traffic fatalities and multiple injuries in Kuwait. The use of seat belts has also affected the nature of the injuries resulting from road traffic accidents. Non-users of belts experienced higher frequencies of head, face, abdominal and limb injuries. Users of belts, on the other hand, suffered higher frequencies of neck and chest injuries. The interrelationship between the victim, his age, and the type of injuries resulting from road traffic accidents is also investigated.     

Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe's main line railways from 1980 to 2009. The paper uses a new set of data for the European Union together with Norway and Switzerland, assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author's own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is −6.3% per year from 1990 to 2009, with a 95% confidence interval of −8.7% to −3.9%. The estimated accident rate in 2009 is 1.35 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2009 of 6.0. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990–2009 is 4.10, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 24.6 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2009. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings remained unchanged in 1990–2009. The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users.     

Would relaxing speed limits aggravate safety? A case study of Hong Kong

This paper studies the effect of the changed speed limits on accident counts for major roadways in the urban environment of Hong Kong. In 1999-2002, the speed limits of a number of sections of roadway were reviewed and increased. Nineteen of them were major roadways. Their speed limits were raised by 10-20 km/h from 50 to 70 km/h. Before and after studies were carried out to investigate the changes in accident counts with respect to the set of carefully chosen comparison groups. Qualification tests for these comparison groups were conducted to confirm their suitability for the studies. In the majority of the treatment sites, the accident counts were worse after the increase in speed limits, both for the category of fatal, serious and slight (FSS) accidents, and for the category of fatal and serious (FS) accidents. Overall, the relaxation of the speed limit from 50 to 70 km/h increased the FSS accident counts by 15% and the FS accident counts by 1%. The relaxation of the speed limit from 70 to 80 km/h increased the FSS accident counts by 18% and the FS accident counts by 36%.     

Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data

This paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry's estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.     

Correlates of coal mine accidents and injuries: A literature review

Coal mining is the most dangerous occupation in the United States, with injury frequency and severity rates several times the average for all industries. Although mine safety improved slightly during the early 1970's, recent trends indicate small decreases in accidents and injuries and, in some cases, increases in accident severity. Experienced miners have lower risks of fatal injuries than inexperienced miners. Workers in small mines are more likely to receive fatal injuries than those in large mines. The various engineering methods of extracting coal from its natural deposit do not produce different fatality rates. The thickness of the coal seam mined is not related to the incidence of fatalities. Although conflicting evidence appears in the literature, recent studies find younger miners with much higher disabling injury rates than older miners. Whether a collective bargaining agreement is in effect is unrelated to accident and injury occurrence at a mine site. Studies of the relationships of accident and injuries to the effectiveness of safety training, the number of shifts each day at a mine site, and the time elapsed during a shift until an accident occurs have produced ambiguous results, often as a result of analysis of inadequate data.     

Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners

Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners.We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining “self-employed forest worker” and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to ≥4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers’ skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field.The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of occupational and consumer safety, are exemplified and discussed.     

Risk and preventive factors for fatalities in All-terrain Vehicle Accidents in New Zealand

All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) have been used in agriculture for a few decades now. Yet despite their invaluable contribution to the productivity of the agricultural industry they are associated with a large number of accidents, many of which result in a severe or fatal outcome. The main objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for ATV-related fatal injuries in order to support the design of effective interventions. Using data held by the Department of Labour, the current study analysed 355 cases of serious harm accidents associated with ATVs including 45 fatalities. The findings suggest that injuries are more likely to occur when accidents involve any of the following: children under the age of 10; four-wheel drive ATVs; driving downhill; driving on a sealed road; driving backwards; or if the ATV rolls sideways. A fatal outcome is more likely to occur when ATV accidents end up with the vehicle rolling over and pinning the driver underneath. Fatalities were also associated with injuries to the head, neck and chest. Being employed; and/or having formal training; and/or having brakes and tyres well maintained on the ATV; and/or having no fluid load on the ATV reduced the risk for fatality. Since the likelihood of a fatal outcome was found to be related to human behaviour and ATV rollover, it is suggested that interventions should mainly address these two issues.     

Safety effects of blue cycle crossings: a before-after study

This paper presents a before-after accident study of marking blue cycle crossings in 65 signalised junctions. Corrections factors for changes in traffic volumes and accident/injury trends are included using a general comparison group in this non-experimental observational study. Analysis of long-term accident trends point towards no overall abnormal accident counts in the before period. The safety effect depends on the number of blue cycle crossings at the junction. One blue cycle crossing reduces the number of junction accidents by 10%, whereas marking of two and four blue cycle crossings increases the number of accidents by 23% and 60%, respectively. Larger reduction and increases are found for injuries. Safety gains at junctions with one blue cycle crossing arise because the number of accidents with cyclists and moped riders that may have used the blue cycle crossing in the after period and pedestrians in the pedestrian crossing parallel and just next to the blue marking was statistically significant reduced. Two or four blue cycle crossings especially increase the number of rear-end collisions only with motor vehicles involved and right-angle collisions with passenger cars driving on red traffic lights.     

Graphical fault tree analysis for fatal falls in the construction industry

The current study applied a fault tree analysis to represent the causal relationships among events and causes that contributed to fatal falls in the construction industry. Four hundred and eleven work-related fatalities in the Taiwanese construction industry were analyzed in terms of age, gender, experience, falling site, falling height, company size, and the causes for each fatality. Given that most fatal accidents involve multiple events, the current study coded up to a maximum of three causes for each fall fatality. After the Boolean algebra and minimal cut set analyses, accident causes associated with each falling site can be presented as a fault tree to provide an overview of the basic causes, which could trigger fall fatalities in the construction industry. Graphical icons were designed for each falling site along with the associated accident causes to illustrate the fault tree in a graphical manner. A graphical fault tree can improve inter-disciplinary discussion of risk management and the communication of accident causation to first line supervisors.     

Fatalities and injuries in the Kuwaiti construction industry

This paper presents an analysis of construction accidents in Kuwait along with accident causation and injuries that can be considered serious or fatal, so that corrective measures can be taken to decrease casualties, resulting in a safer construction industry. The paper evaluates the existing injury and cost reporting-investigation system of construction accidents in government agencies and private firms.

This research confirms that construction is the most hazardous industry in Kuwait, with accidents accounting for 48%, 38% and 34% of all disabling injuries and 62%, 38% and 42% of all fatalities in 1994, 1995 and 1996, respectively. These rates are considered high and can be compared to construction accident statistics in the U.S.A. which accounted for 14% of all work-related deaths and 9% of disabling injuries in 1993. Based on the study, falling from a height appears to be the major cause of construction injuries and fatalities in Kuwait. Poor accident records and reporting systems hide the extent of the construction safety problem in Kuwait. In addition, many people at management level are unaware of accident-related costs and the effectiveness of a safety program in reducing project costs.     

Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents: an empirical analysis

In the US, single-vehicle run-off-roadway accidents result in a million highway crashes with roadside features every year and account for approximately one third of all highway fatalities. Despite the number and severity of run-off-roadway accidents, quantification of the effect of possible countermeasures has been surprisingly limited due to the absence of data (particularly data on roadside features) needed to rigorously analyze factors affecting the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents. This study provides some initial insight into this important problem by combining a number of databases, including a detailed database on roadside features, to analyze run-off-roadway accidents on a 96.6-km section of highway in Washington State. Using zero-inflated count models and nested logit models, statistical models of accident frequency and severity are estimated and the findings isolate a wide range of factors that significantly influence the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents. The marginal effects of these factors are computed to provide an indication on the effectiveness of potential countermeasures. The findings show significant promise in applying new methodological approaches to run-off-roadway accident analysis.     

A macroscopic impact analysis of the safety efforts case study: Pedestrian fatalities

Any time there are reductions in accidents, advocates of any particular position are quick to claim that it is their “effect” that has improved safety performance. The work in this paper focuses on interpreting a traffic system's performance with respect to a specific type of accident by attributing a change in the number of accidents to the relative contribution of three effects: the activity effect, the safety content effect, and the structure effect. A method is developed and applied to the data sets of pedestrian fatalities that occured in Greece during the period of 1965–1989. The relative contribution of the effects as well as the pattern changes turn out to have a decisive influence. The possible uses and extensions of the method are also discussed.     

Accident-precipitating factors for crashes in turbine-powered general aviation aircraft

General aviation (14CFR Part 91) accounts for 83% of civil aviation fatalities. While much research has focused on accident causes/pilot demographics in this aviation sector, studies to identify factors leading up to the crash (accident-precipitating factors) are few. Such information could inform on pre-emptive remedial action. With this in mind and considering the paucity of research on turbine-powered aircraft accidents the study objectives were to identify accident-precipitating factors and determine if the accident rate has changed over time for such aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91.The NTSB Access database was queried for accidents in airplanes (<12,501 lb) powered by 1–2 turbine engines and occurring between 1989 and 2013. We developed and utilized an accident-precipitating factor taxonomy. Statistical analyses employed logistic regression, contingency tables and a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution.The “Checklist/Flight Manual Not Followed” was the most frequent accident-precipitating factor category and carried an excess risk (OR 2.34) for an accident with a fatal and/or serious occupant injury. This elevated risk reflected an over-representation of accidents with fatal and/or serious injury outcomes (p < 0.001) in the “non-adherence to V Speeds” sub-category. For accidents grouped in the “Inadequate Pre-Flight Planning/Inspection/Procedure” the “inadequate weather planning” sub-category accounted (p = 0.036) for the elevated risk (OR 2.22) of an accident involving fatal and/or serious injuries. The “Violation FARs/AIM Deviation” category was also associated with a greater risk for fatal and/or serious injury (OR 2.59) with “Descent below the MDA/failure to execute the missed approach” representing the largest sub-category. Accidents in multi-engine aircraft are more frequent than their single engine counterparts and the decline (50%) in the turbine aircraft accident rate over the study period was likely due, in part, to a 6-fold increased representation of single engine airplanes.In conclusion, our study is the first to identify novel precursive factors for accidents involving turbine aircraft operating under 14CFR Part 91. This research highlights areas that should receive further emphasis in training/recurrency in a pre-emptive attempt to nullify candidate accident-precipitating factor(s).     

The impact of traffic violations on the estimated cost of traffic accidents with victims

We analyse accidents with victims and calculate the influence of traffic violations on the probability of having a serious or fatal accident, compared to a slight accident. Traffic violations related to speed limitations, administrative infringements or faults related to the driver are considered. Data were obtained from all available reports on accidents with victims that occurred in Spain from 2003 to 2005. A multinomial logistic regression model is specified to find the probability that an accident with victims is slight, serious or fatal, given the presence/absence of thirty different types of traffic violations. The average cost per victim and the average number of victims per accident are then used to find the estimated cost of an accident with victims, given the information on the traffic violations incurred. This demonstrates which combinations of traffic violations lead to higher estimated average costs, compared to cases in which no traffic violation occurred. We conclude with some recommendations on the severity of penalties, and suggest that regulators penalize the occurrences of some specific combinations of traffic violations more rigorously.     

Fatal motorcycle accidents and helmet laws in Peninsular Malaysia

The objectives of this research are to determine the effect of helmet laws on fatalities associated with motor cycle accidents in Peninsular Malaysia. The prevalence of accidents and deaths occurring in the 10 groups of states of the Peninsula between 1973 and 1979 is analyzed. Differences in rates, especially the deaths/accidents, from before to after the introduction of the helmet law are emphasized. The rates accidents/1000 registrations and deaths/10,000 registrations decreased in almost all of the states after the law was introduced. There was not a uniform reduction in the rate of deaths/100 accidents after introduction of the law in individual states. However, a weighted linear regression shows that the effect of the introduction of the helmet law on deaths/accidents was significant. An odds ratio of 0.70 is the estimated risk of deaths associated with motorcycle accident after introduction of the helmet law compared with no helmet law. The 30 per cent estimated reduction in fatalities in Malaysia is similar in magnitude to that reported in the U.S.A. It is estimated that in 1979 the number of fatalities in Peninsular Malaysia was about 140 lower than could be expected without the helmet law.