Disaggregate analysis of road accident severities

A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between road accident occurrence and severity of consequences permits the formulation of safety measures that are most cost-effective. A disaggregate model of road accident severity based on sequential logit models is presented. The sequential binary approach is able to account for the dependency between different levels of severity. Factors that affect the level of damage experienced by individuals involved in road accidents include: accident dynamics, seating position, vehicle condition, vehicle size, driver condition and driver action. Separate models are calibrated for three accident situations: single-vehicle accidents, two-vehicle accidents and multi-vehicle accidents. Ontario road accident police reports are used to calibrate and validate the models. The results of a simple application of the models to a safety protocol involving the effectiveness of passenger restraint devices is presented.     

Pedestrian safety at traffic signals: a study carried out with the help of a traffic conflicts technique

Most pedestrian accidents in built-up areas occur at intersections. Even after signalization the number of accidents involving pedestrians often remains high. After reviewing the published evidence, this paper describes how the Traffic Conflicts Techniques has been used to examine the risk to pedestrians at 120 intersections. The principal results indicate that signalization of a high-speed intersection (mean speed above 30 km/h in at least one arm) reduces pedestrian risk to approximately half. If mean speed in every arm is below 30 km/h signalization also reduces pedestrian risk, as long as most vehicles are not turning. Another finding from these studies was that a crosswalk should be located less than two meters from the intersection to optimize pedestrian safety. The conflict studies as well as analyses of accident data show that one should examine separately accidents between turning vehicles and "green-walking" pedestrians and accidents involving pedestrians walking against red light. The effect of an exclusive pedestrian signal phase (scramble) was tested at three sites and proved to be very safety-beneficial in a small town, while in Stockholm it did not prove effective because of a high percentage of red-walkers. Vehicle delay, as well as pedestrian delay, increased at all three sites. Data collected at 152 crosswalks has been used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate model of the frequency of "red-walking." The size of the town and traffic volumes appear to be the major factors influencing this frequency. Additional insight has been obtained from personal interviews of 450 persons. These indicate that shorter waiting times and police enforcement are considered the most efficient measures to reduce the frequency of red-walking.     

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident.     

Multidisciplinary in-depth investigations of head-on and left-turn road collisions

To enhance traffic safety, a multidisciplinary Road Accident Investigation Team was established in Denmark for a 2-year trial period. The objective was to conduct in-depth investigations of specific types of accidents, and to identify effective preventive measures. The team consisted of a road engineer, a vehicle inspector, a police superintendent, a psychologist and a physician. Seventeen serious head-on collisions as well as 17 left-turn collisions were analysed. In collecting data, police reports were supplemented by the team's investigation of accident sites and vehicles involved, and interviews were carried out with the involved road users and witnesses. The drivers, to whom the accident factors were primarily related in the head-on collisions, were characterised by their conscious risk-taking behaviour. They were all males; several of them were under age 40 and had earlier traffic and/or drug convictions. The main accident factors were excessive speed, drunk driving and driving under the influence of illegal drugs. In the left-turn accidents, the most common accident factors were attention errors, and it was also noted that elderly drivers ( > 74) were over-represented. The synergy effect of working as a multidisciplinary team proved fruitful. It resulted in a more precise knowledge of the road accident circumstances and of contributing factors leading up to the accidents. Due to the great demand on resources, only a limited number of accidents could be analysed, but the results provide a basis for further and more targeted research.     

Rough set approach for accident chains exploration

This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.     

火灾事故对空分设备精馏塔器的影响分析

介绍在某钢厂40000m3/h空分设备安装过程中发生的一起火灾事故,叙述火灾事故现场勘察工作,分析了火灾事故的原因对空分设备精馏塔器的破坏程度,为防止类似事故的再次发生,提出了一些防范措施。     

Voluntary risk taking and skill deficits in young driver accidents in the UK

In absolute terms, young drivers have three to four times as many accidents per year as older drivers; and even allowing for their relative numbers in the population, their accident involvement is about 2.5 times higher than older drivers. A sample of 3437 accident reports was considered, including 1296 in detail, from midland police forces in the UK, involving drivers aged 17-25, and covering the years 1994-1996 inclusive. Four types of accident were identified as being of particular concern due to their high frequency: 'cross-flow'-turns; rear-end shunts; loss of control on bends; and accidents in darkness. (The term 'cross-flow' is used in relation to turns to denote an intersection accident where a driver is turning across the path of oncoming traffic, i.e., left turns in the US and continental Europe, but right turns in the UK and other countries where driving on the left side of the road is the norm.) An examination of driver risk taking behaviours as revealed in police interviews gave an insight into some of the motivational factors underlying young driver behaviour. Young driver accidents of all types are found to be frequently the result of 'risk taking' factors as opposed to 'skill deficit' factors. It had previously been thought that one of the main problems that young drivers have is in the area of specific skills needed in the driving task. However, it appears that a large percentage of their accidents are purely the result of two or three failures resulting from voluntary risk taking behaviour, rather than skill deficits per se. It is shown that specific groups of young drivers can even be considered as above average in driving skills, but simultaneously have a higher accident involvement due to their voluntary decisions to take risks.     

Estimating the number of accidents at intersections from a knowledge of the traffic flows on the approaches

The increase in the number of accidents at intersections, relative to non-junction accidents, may be explained by the basic fact that an increase in the number of vehicles on the road is generally accompanied by an increase in the number of collisions, which rise at a faster rate than single-vehicle accidents. Generally, more than 50% of the collisions occur at intersections. Data from a number of countries studied support the above statement and show that over the years, the number of intersection accidents has increased at a faster rate than other accidents. The study includes a statistical analysis of the general trends in the number of intersection accidents, their severity, and an analysis of types of accidents at intersections. A model was developed which enables the estimation of the expected number of accidents at individual intersections. It was found that vehicle exposure can be used as the basis for estimation. The exposure, denned as the number of occasions for accidents, was calculated through the sum of the products of flow at the 24 points where vehicle paths cross or merge. This measure of exposure, expressed as a traffic flow index, showed good correlation with the number of accidents. On the assumption that the number of accidents at an intersection, in a given time interval, is Poisson distributed, significance tests were made comparing the actual number of accidents with the expected according to the vehicle exposure index. Such comparisons are useful in the determination of accident “black spots”.     

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites.     

Use of CCTV to determine road accident factors in urban areas

This paper sets out to assess whether there is a potential use for images collected through the increasingly ubiquitous use of CCTV cameras in urban areas as a means of increasing understanding of the causes of road traffic accidents. Information on causation and contributory factors is essential as a means of understanding why accidents occurred and how the occurrence of similar events may be prevented in the future. CCTV records of accidents could provide an independent perspective on an accident and have the potential to increase both the quality and quantity of information available to the safety researcher.

This study focuses on an area of central Leeds in the UK and shows that an existing CCTV camera system used for urban traffic management reasons has the potential to record around a quarter of the accidents which occur in the area, based on patterns of past occurrence. Most city centres in the UK will have similar camera systems set-up. By the introduction of additional strategically placed cameras and replacement of existing cameras with ones dedicated to accident recording, this figure could be increased substantially.

The paper also considers how effective cameras and video records will be as a means of identifying contributory factor information once an accident is recorded. The contributory factor classification used by a recently introduced system in Britain is assessed in terms of how visible each of the factors is likely to be on video and their relative frequency of occurrence. It is concluded that CCTV has a high potential to provide corroborative evidence about many of the most commonly occurring factors, and to throw further light on accident causation.     

A trial linkage of the road accident and vehicle registration files

Vehicle characteristics are of importance in all phases of road accident. None, however, are recorded by the police on the road accident registration form in The Netherlands. By linking the Vehicle Registration file to the Road Accident file a number of important vehicle characteristics can be added to the accident record. Theoretically it had to be possible to link both files because there was a common key variable viz. the vehicle registration number, which in The Netherlands is unique and stays with the vehicle its whole life. The test linkage was aimed at determining whether it was also practically possible. It was furthermore aimed at determining the completeness and reliability of both files. The fatal accidents of 1981 were selected to serve for the test because only fatal accidents are completely recorded, and 1981 was the most recent available year at the time. These limitations made it possible for SWOV to carry out a manual control on vehicle make and model, as this is often recorded by the police. Based on the conformity found, the validity of the linking by vehicle registration number was found to be 94% and the reliability at least 95%. The conclusion is therefore that the linkage can be accomplished in practice and that it reliably adds useful vehicle characteristics to the police records on fatal road accidents. This complementary information is in the first place important for deeper analysis of the relationship between, on the one hand, accident and injury characteristics and, on the other hand, the vehicle characteristics.     

Accident prototypical scenarios, a tool for road safety research and diagnostic studies

The concept of prototypical accident scenario has been used since the late 1980s in French road safety research. A prototypical scenario can be defined as a prototype of the accident process corresponding to a series of accidents which are similar in terms of the chain of facts and causal relationships found throughout the various accident stages. This concept provides a means of combining and generalising the knowledge obtained from accident case studies, based on in-depth investigation methods or on detailed analyses of police reports. Applications of this concept are developed in both the field of traffic accident research and safety studies (diagnoses) in preparation for engineering measures or local safety policies. This paper presents the prototypical scenario concept, its theoretical background, and the way it is used for safety research and studies.     

An analysis of the severity and incident duration of truck-involved freeway accidents

Data associated with over 9000 accidents involving large trucks and combination vehicles during a two-year period on freeways in the greater Los Angeles area are analyzed relative to collision factors, accident severity, and incident duration and lane closures. Relationships between type of collision and accident characteristics are explored using log-linear models. The results point to significant differences in several immediate consequences of truck-related freeway accidents according to collision type. These differences are associated both with the severity of the accident, in terms of injuries and fatalities, as well as with the impact of the accident on system performance, in terms of incident duration and lane closures. Hit-object and broadside collisions were the most severe types in terms of fatalities and injuries, respectively, and single-vehicle accidents are relatively more severe than two-vehicle accidents. The durations of accident incidents were found to be log-normally distributed for homogeneous groups of truck accidents, categorized according to type of collision and, in some instances, severity. The longest durations are typically associated with overturns.     

The evaluation of effects on driver behavior and accidents of concentrated general enforcement on interurban roads in Israel

The study deals with the evaluation of the effects of a new deployment of the National Traffic Police in Israel--a concentrated general enforcement on 700 km of interurban roads, which contain 60% of all rural accidents and about half of the severe accident locations. The enforcement project began in April 1997 and lasted for 1 year, aiming at a 10% reduction of severe accidents on those roads. The evaluation study consisted of three main parts: (a) monitoring of everyday police operations on the project roads; (b) periodic evaluation of the project's influence on drivers' behavior and attitudes; and (c) the evaluation of accident changes within the project area, at the end of the project year. Speed measurements, performed before the police project launch, demonstrated that, depending on road type, up to 85% of drivers violated the rural road speed limits. Two rounds of field observations, before and during the project, took place at 32 sites throughout the project area and comprised eight behavior types: turning performance; signaling while turning; compliance with 'stop' and 'yield' signs; safety belt use by drivers and front-seat passengers, at the intersections; 'keeping to the right' on dual carriageway roads; and 'not-crossing of the white separating line' at single carriageway roads. A comparison revealed a general reduction in violation rates of most behaviors, during-the-project, except for compliance with 'stop' signs and signaling. Concurrently, two rounds of driver surveys were performed which examined the project's influence on the drivers' attitudes towards the police enforcement effectiveness and risk connected with traffic rule violations. An improvement was identified in perceived general level of police activity, during the project, whereas a lower or similar risk of apprehension was attributed by drivers to most specific violations of the traffic rules. Three groups of indices of police activity were estimated monthly during the study: inputs; outputs; and efficiency indices, which characterized the police presence on the project roads, the citations produced and the usage rates of the vehicle fleet and the enforcement tools. Analyzing these indices, two periods in the project performance were determined, and three criteria were proposed to subdivide the project roads into two groups, according to the level of enforcement intensity. Both periods and enforcement levels, as well as geographic zone, were accounted for in the analysis of accident trends on the project roads. For the accident analysis, a statistical model combining the odds ratio and longitudinal methods, was developed and applied to the severe accident counts, all injury accidents and severe casualties. A statistically significant reduction in severe accidents and severe casualties, as opposed to the comparison group, was found on the highly enforced roads in the center of the country. At the same time, since the police project began, an increase in accidents was observed on most interurban roads, including the northern parts of the project area. However, it was noted that in four of the five project road groups the mean value of the odds ratio was much less than one. Thus, although the enforcement project did not attain its full purpose, it seemed to be a deterrent factor for the increasing accident trend that appeared that year on the interurban roads. The findings pointed out that the National Traffic Police did not exhaust its potential in the project's performance and needs more flexible enforcement and deployment tactics.     

Total costs of bicycle injuries in Norway: correcting injury figures and indicating data needs

Bicycle injuries and fatalities are reported by the police to Statistics Norway. Fatality records from the police are then corrected with Vital Statistics records. However, there is no complete hospital recording that could provide more correct data for bicycle injuries. Bicycle injuries are underreported in official data. There is a nearly complete omission of single bicycle accidents. This disguises societal accident costs and curtails the identification of black spots and effective infrastructure improvements.

This paper provides an estimate of total bicycle injuries in Norway and the total costs of these injuries. Application of case study hospital data from Norwegian towns enabled an estimation of the relationship between these data and the official data, including the distribution of injuries by severity. Costs were then assessed by applying official monetary values for given levels of injury severity.

Total annual bicycle injury costs are huge, but these costs must be balanced against the benefits of bicycling, related to health and environment. Accident reporting and data should be enhanced to enable a reduction of bicycle injuries.     

Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction

One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention.     

一起流动式起重机倾覆事故的技术分析

本文通过介绍一起流动式起重机的倾翻事故及其原因分析,探讨在起重机安装中两台流动式起重机吊运主梁时事故隐患,得出了起重机倾覆事故原因及预防措施,对于杜绝流动式起重机倾覆事故的发生,减少人民生命财产的损失,有着重要的实际意义。     

Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersections

Poisson and negative binomial (NB) models have been used to analyze traffic accident occurrence at intersections for several years. There are however, limitations in the use of such models. The Poisson model requires the variance-to-mean ratio of the accident data to be about 1. Both the Poisson and the NB models require the accident data to be uncorrelated in time. Due to unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the accident data, both models seem to be inappropriate. A more suitable alternative is the random effect negative binomial (RENB) model, which by treating the data in a time-series cross-section panel, will be able to deal with the spatial and temporal effects in the data. This paper describes the use of RENB model to identify the elements that affect intersection safety. To establish the suitability of the model, several goodness-of-fit statistics are used. The model is then applied to investigate the relationship between accident occurrence and the geometric, traffic and control characteristics of signalized intersections in Singapore. The results showed that 11 variables significantly affected the safety at the intersections. The total approach volumes, the numbers of phases per cycle, the uncontrolled left-turn lane and the presence of a surveillance camera are among the variables that are the highly significant.