共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 156 毫秒
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为计及各种不确定性因素及其影响,并在此基础上实现对复杂系统稳定性水平的综合评估,提出一种基于专业电力系统分析软件DSA Tools实现功角稳定性概率评估的方法。计及系统运行工况、故障场景及故障后保护和重合闸行为的不确定性,基于蒙特卡罗概率模拟思想,通过动态创建DSA Tools稳定分析作业及调用稳定计算引擎实现小扰动稳定及暂态稳定的概率分析与评估。与常规确定性稳定分析比较,所提方法可以更全面综合地分析系统特征模式、评估稳定水平及识别稳定性薄弱环节。IEEE17机162节点系统算例验证了所提方法的有效性,为扩展专业软件基础功能、开发概率评估新工具提供了可行思路和途径。 相似文献
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为了探讨风电随机激励对电力系统暂态稳定的影响,提出一种基于随机微分理论对含风电电力系统进行建模和稳定分析的方法。首先将异步风机机械功率作为随机激励,在暂态过程中利用伊藤型随机微分方程对异步风机的转子运动方程进行建模,将传统的微分代数方程模型扩展成随机微分代数方程模型;然后针对新的模型,通过时域仿真进行求解,分析风电功率随机波动对电力系统暂态过程的影响。算例结果表明:相比于确定性和概率性暂态稳定分析方法,所提方法能够更好地揭示风电不确定性对电力系统暂态稳定性的影响。 相似文献
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随着电力系统规模的扩大和运行环境的日益复杂,基于概率的暂态稳定评估计算对于电力系统的规划和运行具有重要的意义。本文基于大电网的暂态稳定分析特点,对蒙特卡罗的状态采样、误差分析与收敛判据等关键内容进行了研究,提出概率暂态稳定性故障抽样模型、评估量化指标,以及基于蒙特卡罗方法的暂态稳定性评估流程。通过南方某省级电网实际算例分析,验证了所提方法在大电网暂态稳定性评估应用中的合理性和有效性。 相似文献
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C. S. Indulkar 《International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems》1993,15(6):339-343
The sensitivity values of the critical clearing angle and the operating angle of a generator connected to an infinite bus through a double-circuit transmission line, with respect to the system parameters and operating variables are evaluated. The limiting values of the parameters and variables within which the system can remain stable are identified. The sensitivities of the margin of transient stability with respect to the various parameters and variables are also determined. Finally a probabilistic evaluation of the transient stability margin has been carried out from the deterministic sensitivity values of the transient stability margin. The results show that probabilistic evaluation of the transient stability margin should be carried out because deterministic studies give conservative results. 相似文献
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关于暂态稳定不确定性分析的评述 总被引:5,自引:15,他引:5
从随机变量、概率模型、概率算法以及特定场景下的暂态稳定评估等方面,回顾国内外对暂态稳定概率分析和风险分析的研究和现状,归纳各种分析方法的原理及优缺点,讨论减少计算量的技术,探讨暂态稳定性概率分析及风险分析的发展方向.指出在计算失稳概率时尽量采用灵敏度分析技术来代替抽样仿真,将大大减少计算量.提出用最优稳定控制的代价来反映经济损失,即用主动停电造成的损失代替系统失稳后不受控停电的损失,使风险值可以实际计算. 相似文献
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P.R.S. Kuruganty R. Billinton 《International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems》1980,2(2):115-119
Transient stability assessment deals with the performance of a system when subjected to large disturbances such as faults, sudden loss of load or generation, and line switching. Most of the work carried out in this area has been based on deterministic models. The probabilistic nature of the problem and a method for considering the probabilities associated with the type, location and clearance of system faults have been illustrated in recent papers. The present paper includes the probabilities associated with basic initiating factors in the stability evaluation. Two simple systems have been used to illustrate the results: a single machine, infinite bus system and a 6-bus multimachine system model based on the Saskatchewan Power Corporation transmission system. The impact of different fault types on the transient stability of the system is demonstrated, and a single index of the stability of the overall system for different faults is developed. The difficulties and possible methods of solving transient stability evaluation problems are indicated from a practical system viewpoint. 相似文献
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发电机变量概率特性计算及对概率稳定的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为获得系统多运行方式下发电机交直轴电压、电流和功角等变量的运行范围,并免去传统确定性方法的重复计算过程,提出了发电机变量概率特性的解析计算方法。依据概率潮流的保留非线性算法和随机变量数字特征的基本性质,推导了保留非线性的发电机变量概率特性的计算模型,并改进了系统受扰动后瞬间节点电压协方差的算式。在一8机系统的算例上计算和分析了保留非线性对发电机变量的均值和方差计算精度的改善效果,在此基础上研究了对短路电压均值和协方差计算的影响。算例结果表明所提算法具有较高的计算精度,对后续计算的准确性也有一定的改善。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems》2012,43(1):627-634
The increasing need to improve security monitoring of networks by system operators is the main motivation of the work described in this paper. The paper provides an algorithm for the on-line probabilistic transient stability assessment of existing or forecasted operating conditions. The proposed algorithm is an analytical method making use of two types of information: (i) transient stability assessment tool, and (ii) probabilistic factors. The corrected transient energy margin (CTEM), which is a hybrid method, is used to on-line transient stability assessment. The probabilistic factors of the conditional probability theorem were included in our method. Hence, our algorithm calculates the probability of the transient instability through using the CTEM and probabilistic factors in the transient stability in an on-line manner for exciting or forecasted operation condition for short term operation condition (e.g., next 1 h period). The implementation of the proposed method to New England 39-bus test system showed the ability and good performance of the method for the probabilistic assessment of the transient stability. Also, the method provides the system operator with a profound insight into the system stability conditions. The results retrieved again with changed operation conditions; therefore, the system operator can sometimes improve the system stability condition through making little changes in the power output of generators. 相似文献
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Allowable current ratings for Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) transmission lines are presently based on conservative deterministic criteria. This conservative criteria has served BPA well for many years with minimal cost penalty as most lines have historically been stability limited. Beginning in the mid-70s, a number of BPA's lines have shifted from stability limited to thermally limited, suggesting the conservative assumptions in the present allowable current rating model may be associated with significant cost penalties. A new method, based on probabilistic techniques, is described which diminishes the conservative assumptions in the present deterministic method promising substantial cost savings. General probabilistic equations are developed and the overall technique's philosophy discussed. The probabilistic method revolves around statistical ambient weather models which are reported. Research work has been performed to characterize weather regions in BPA's service area assembling limited statistical weather models for each region. Planned future work is outlined including the development and deployment of a data acquisition system capable of collecting ambient weather data in support of probabilistic line ratings 相似文献
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大多数电力系统电压稳定评估主要采用的是确定性的分析方法。简要介绍了概率的分析方法在进行电力系统电压稳定分析中的应用,提出了一种以蒙特卡罗法和网损灵敏度二阶指标确定电压稳定负荷裕度相结合的方法,同时引入两个概率指标———电压崩溃概率指标和电压崩溃点负荷水平期望值。采用该方法对重载下的AEP30节点系统进行了电压崩溃的概率评估,并侧重于分析负荷的随机特性对负荷水平(电压崩溃点)的影响,以及输电线断线的概率评估和相应减小电压崩溃概率的措施比较。 相似文献