Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

Active disease surveillance during epidemics is of utmost importance in detecting and eliminating new cases quickly, and targeting such surveillance to high-risk individuals is considered more efficient than applying a random strategy. Contact tracing has been used as a form of at-risk targeting, and a variety of mathematical models have indicated that it is likely to be highly efficient. However, for fast-moving epidemics, resource constraints limit the ability of the authorities to perform, and follow up, contact tracing effectively. As an alternative, we present a novel real-time Bayesian statistical methodology to determine currently undetected (occult) infections. For the UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2007, we use real-time epidemic data synthesized with previous knowledge of FMD outbreaks in the UK to predict which premises might have been infected, but remained undetected, at any point during the outbreak. This provides both a framework for targeting surveillance in the face of limited resources and an indicator of the current severity and spatial extent of the epidemic. We anticipate that this methodology will be of substantial benefit in future outbreaks, providing a compromise between targeted manual surveillance and random or spatially targeted strategies.     

Modelling and predicting the effect of social distancing and travel restrictions on COVID-19 spreading

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is difficult, but it is key to reducing their social and economic consequences. Here, we introduce a meta-population model based on temporal networks, calibrated on the COVID-19 outbreak data in Italy and applied to evaluate the outcomes of these two types of NPIs. Our approach combines the advantages of granular spatial modelling of meta-population models with the ability to realistically describe social contacts via activity-driven networks. We focus on disentangling the impact of these two different types of NPIs: those aiming at reducing individuals’ social activity, for instance through lockdowns, and those that enforce mobility restrictions. We provide a valuable framework to assess the effectiveness of different NPIs, varying with respect to their timing and severity. Results suggest that the effects of mobility restrictions largely depend on the possibility of implementing timely NPIs in the early phases of the outbreak, whereas activity reduction policies should be prioritized afterwards.     

Threshold parameters for a model of epidemic spread among households and workplaces

The basic reproduction number R ₀ is one of the most important concepts in modern infectious disease epidemiology. However, for more realistic and more complex models than those assuming homogeneous mixing in the population, other threshold quantities can be defined that are sometimes more useful and easily derived in terms of model parameters. In this paper, we present a model for the spread of a permanently immunizing infection in a population socially structured into households and workplaces/schools, and we propose and discuss a new household-to-household reproduction number R _H for it. We show how R _H overcomes some of the limitations of a previously proposed threshold parameter, and we highlight its relationship with the effort required to control an epidemic when interventions are targeted at randomly selected households.     

基于社会力模型的人群-桥梁竖向动力耦合效应研究

针对越来越多的轻质柔性人行桥在随机人群荷载作用下的结构振动问题,为了能够获得更为真实、精细的振动响应,建立考虑人群-结构相互作用的随机人群荷载模型尤为重要。首先利用移动弹簧-质量-阻尼模型模拟单人的动力学行为,并基于社会力模型,建立人群的随机运动模型,进而建立考虑人群-结构耦合振动的随机人群荷载模型。根据任意时刻人行桥和随机人群动力平衡,建立随机人群-人行桥耦合振动的控制方程。利用状态空间法求解人行桥动力参数随随机人群运动的变化情况,利用振型分解法求解耦合振动控制方程,探讨考虑人群-结构耦合振动的随机人群荷载对人行桥模态以及振动响应的影响。分析结果表明耦合系统模态变化量随着人数增加而增加。行人随机性与人群-结构相互作用对轻质结构的竖向动力响应影响很大,故在计算轻质结构振动响应时不可忽略。相比于加速度峰值,均方根加速度能够弱化随机波动的干扰作用,因此也采用了1-s均方根加速度更合理地衡量了结构的振动响应。     

Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways,human mobility and sanitation

We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000–2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae, thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.     

Interactive knowledge exchanges under complex social relations: A simulation model of a developing country cluster

This is a model of knowledge exchange by informal interaction among agents in a low technology cluster. The paper studies these knowledge exchanges in an environment of complex social relations. This study tests whether the small-world network structure is the most favorable for knowledge exchanges in these environments, and explores the influence of social relations and network distance on magnitude and equity of knowledge diffused. The results show that, when knowledge exchanges are undertaken in environments of complex social relations, a small-world network structure may still be the best network structure facilitating the highest performance, but it is not the best in terms of the most equitable knowledge distribution. The results also confirms that the highest and most equitable knowledge distribution is achieved when there is perfect affinity among the agents. These results contribute to the existing series of studies on efficient network structures for knowledge diffusion, and on the broader literature on the social forces shaping learning and knowledge diffusion.     

What company characteristics are associated with the adoption of social media?

ABSTRACT

In just one decade, social media have moved from being marginal phenomena to having three billion active monthly users globally in 2017. We use a large representative sample to study which company characteristics are associated with the early adoption of social media. Our findings suggest that digital orientation (outside social media), innovativeness, external collaboration in marketing and sales, and orientation towards consumer markets all increase a company’s probability of adopting social media. In addition, larger and younger companies are more likely to be early movers. Overall, business use of social media has only reached its early maturity; thus, it still has plenty of room to grow.     

How the online social networks are used: dialogues-based structure of MySpace

Quantitative study of collective dynamics in online social networks is a new challenge based on the abundance of empirical data. Conclusions, however, may depend on factors such as user''s psychology profiles and their reasons to use the online contacts. In this study, we have compiled and analysed two datasets from MySpace. The data contain networked dialogues occurring within a specified time depth, high temporal resolution and texts of messages, in which the emotion valence is assessed by using the SentiStrength classifier. Performing a comprehensive analysis, we obtain three groups of results: dynamic topology of the dialogues-based networks have a characteristic structure with Zipf''s distribution of communities, low link reciprocity and disassortative correlations. Overlaps supporting ‘weak-ties’ hypothesis are found to follow the laws recently conjectured for online games. Long-range temporal correlations and persistent fluctuations occur in the time series of messages carrying positive (negative) emotion; patterns of user communications have dominant positive emotion (attractiveness) and strong impact of circadian cycles and interactivity times longer than 1 day. Taken together, these results give a new insight into the functioning of online social networks and unveil the importance of the amount of information and emotion that is communicated along the social links. All data used in this study are fully anonymized.     

Beyond contact-based transmission networks: the role of spatial coincidence

Animal societies rely on interactions between group members to effectively communicate and coordinate their actions. To date, the transmission properties of interaction networks formed by direct physical contacts have been extensively studied for many animal societies and in all cases found to inhibit spreading. Such direct interactions do not, however, represent the only viable pathways. When spreading agents can persist in the environment, indirect transmission via ‘same-place, different-time’ spatial coincidences becomes possible. Previous studies have neglected these indirect pathways and their role in transmission. Here, we use rock ant colonies, a model social species whose flat nest geometry, coupled with individually tagged workers, allowed us to build temporally and spatially explicit interaction networks in which edges represent either direct physical contacts or indirect spatial coincidences. We show how the addition of indirect pathways allows the network to enhance or inhibit the spreading of different types of agent. This dual-functionality arises from an interplay between the interaction-strength distribution generated by the ants'' movement and environmental decay characteristics of the spreading agent. These findings offer a general mechanism for understanding how interaction patterns might be tuned in animal societies to control the simultaneous transmission of harmful and beneficial agents.     

The role of online social networks for divorced Saudi women in the face of social,psychological, economic,and legal challenges

This research examines the supporting role social networks provide to divorced Saudi women in the face of social, economic, psychological, and legal challenges. An online survey with open and closed ended questions was created to address the following research question: What support do online social networks provide to divorced Saudi women in contemporary Saudi Arabian society in the face of social, economic, psychological, and legal challenges?” The survey was completed online by 248 divorced Saudi women. Quantitative analysis of closed-ended survey responses was applied to the dataset followed by a qualitative thematic analysis of respondents' responses to open-ended questions. Survey findings identified the following areas of medium to high social network support experienced by divorced Saudi women: social outcast avoidance, relationship management with former husband, income assistance, emotional support, confidence building, and depression management. Findings also revealed areas where social networks provided only low levels of support with respect to social, economic, psychological, and legal challenges. The research contributes new insights into the supporting role of social networks for divorced Saudi women and their potential to leverage personal life and identity development in the face of social stigmatization and societal marginalization. This work advances research relevant to media studies, woman's studies, and cultural studies.     

School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies

School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K–12 closures and reopening policies on children''s social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California''s Bay Area, we collected data on children''s social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: −985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: −1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.     

Dynamic response of flexible container during the impact with the ground

In order to understand and improve the crashworthiness of airdropped flexible containers, this paper presents the work of numerical simulations about the dynamic behaviour of the container under impact loading. A finite element model of the container is constructed and used to predict the dynamic response of the container. Water movement and sloshing in the container are modelled using the multi-material ALE method; interaction between the container and the fluid is studied by the penalty method. Mechanical properties of the fabric composite are obtained by applying periodic boundary conditions on the unit cell model. Numerical results are compared with experiment data for the validation of the model and the approaches. With a range of system parameters, numerical tests show that the shoulder of the container is the most vulnerable part during the impact. Both the drop heights and the amount of water have great effects on the crashworthiness of the container. The maximum dynamic stress of the container is proportional to the drop height. The amount of water in the container influences the failure of the container.     

Modelling of 3D response pulse at the bottom of asphalt layer using a novel function and artificial neural network

Fatigue life of asphalt mixes in laboratory tests is commonly determined by applying a haversine or sinusoidal load with a specific frequency. However, the frequency (time duration) and shape of horizontal tensile stress and strain pulses at the bottom the asphalt layer depend on pavement design (thickness and stiffness of layers) and loading specifications (speed and contact radius). The first objective of this paper is to introduce a novel function for a more realistic representation of 3D response (stress and strain pulses in longitudinal, transverse and vertical directions) at the bottom of the asphalt layer. The second objective is to establish a framework for determination of magnitude and shape of 3D response pulse at the bottom of the asphalt layer using artificial neural network. This framework enables designers to predict the shape and magnitude of stress and strain pulses in three directions based on some parameters related to pavement structure and loading specifications.     

Wave propagation and transient response of a FGM plate under a point impact load based on higher-order shear deformation theory

In this paper, the wave propagation and transient response of an infinite functionally graded plate under a point impact load are presented. The effective material properties of functionally graded materials (FGMs) for the plate are assumed to vary continuously through the plate thickness and be distributed according to a volume fraction power law along the plate thickness. Based on the higher-order shear deformation theory and considering the effect of the rotary inertia, the governing equations of the wave propagation in the functionally graded plate are derived by using the Hamilton’s principle. The analytic dispersion relation of the functionally graded plate is obtained by means of integral transforms and a complete discussion of dispersion for the functionally graded plate is given. Then, using the dispersion relation and integral transforms, exact integral solutions for the functionally graded plate under a point impact load are obtained. The transient response curves of the functionally graded plates are plotted and the influence of volume fraction distributions on transient response of functionally graded plates is analyzed. Finally, the solutions of the higher-order shear deformation theory and the first-order shear deformation theory are studied.     

Integration and focus from the perspective of social impact assessment: a response to Morrison-Saunders et al.

The paper by Morrison-Saunders et al. [Morrison-Saunders A, Pope J, Gunn J, Bond A, Retief F. 2014. Strengthening impact assessment: a call for integration and focus. Impact Assess Project Appraisal. 32(1):2–8] was interesting reading, but ultimately unconvincing in that it did not adequately prove its point. There were too many assertions. The issues of integration and focus are more complex than they suggest. A more considered analysis would have led to a different outcome. Coming from a social impact assessment perspective, I consider Morrison-Saunders et al. to be guilty of the same thing they complain about, i.e. silo-based expertise, given their lack of connection to papers and discussions outside of their fields of environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment.     

完整约束下齿轮啮合转子系统的弯扭耦合振动稳态响应

在不脱齿等基本假设下，根据齿轮啮合原理和轮齿的齿面方程，推导了齿轮形心的横向位移和齿轮扭转角之间的约束关系式，从Lagrange方程出发，同时考虑齿轮啮合和不平衡效应，建立了直齿齿轮啮合转子-轴承系统的弯扭耦合动力学模型。分别在质量偏心和扭转激励作用下，分析了系统的弯扭耦合振动稳态响应。结果表明：两者均会引起弯曲振动和扭转振动，并且响应的幅值与系统的参数有关。     

Associative activation during interrupted task performance: a mixed methods approach to understanding the overall quality effects of interruptions

The objectives of this research were to (1) explore whether goal-activation models of procedurally based interrupted task performance can be applied to content production, and if not, (2) develop a new theoretical account, and (3) provide support for that theory. Experiment 1 found that interruptions during planning resulted in less developed plans, and that available theoretical models could not account for performance. Experiment 2 leveraged Verbal Protocol Analysis to explore the cognitive mechanisms underlying interrupted task performance on a content production task. We found support for a combination of processes: (1) cues and environmental context, and (2) task activation levels. These results suggested a spreading activation account of interrupted task performance. Experiment 3 provided further support for spreading activation by comparing short and long interruptions. These results have broad implications for moving our understanding of interrupted task performance forward by expanding our understanding to non-procedural task performance.     

The development of a conceptual model regarding the role of social modelling in safety behaviour: an integrated literature review

Social modelling is a process where an individual observes a model's behaviour and its consequences, leading to a modification of the observer's old behaviours or the acquisition of new behaviours. Even though diverse fields, including transportation and aviation, have reliably found significant results pertaining to the influences of social modelling on behavioural outcomes, there is a lack of research pertaining to social modelling's influences specifically on safety behaviour. This review details the safety issues related to the mechanisms, influences and effects of social modelling as a way to examine the potential that social modelling has in affecting employees’ safety behaviour. The collected research materials aided in the construction of a preliminary conceptual model regarding the effects of social modelling on safety behaviour. Overall, the review provides safety and organisational researchers with information about a gap in the safety literature and a model that can lead to future research to fill that gap.     

受单点横向非定常约束梁的响应分析

为研究梁上任意一点受横向非定常约束的稳态响应问题.提出直接使用第一类拉格朗日方程与欧拉-伯努利梁理论建立梁的动力学方程,从而可以使用简单边界下梁的模态函数表示约束作用于任一位置时的梁的响应;以约束为谐波函数为例推导了梁响应的解析表达式,并通过算例验证了该方法的正确性.研究结果表明:受单点横向非定常约束梁的共振频率与非定...