A physics informed emulator for laser-driven radiating shock simulations

This work discusses the uncertainty quantification aspect of quantification of margin and uncertainty (QMU) in the context of two linked computer codes. Specifically, we present a physics based reduction technique to deal with functional data from the first code and then develop an emulator for this reduced data. Our particular application deals with conditions created by laser deposition in a radiating shock experiment modeled using the Lagrangian, radiation-hydrodynamics code Hyades. Our goal is to construct an emulator and perform a sensitivity analysis of the functional output from Hyades to be used as an initial condition for a three-dimensional code that will compute the evolution of the radiating shock at later times. Initial attempts at purely statistical data reduction techniques, were not successful at reducing the number of parameters required to describe the Hyades output. We decided on an alternate approach using physical arguments to decide what features/locations of the output were relevant (e.g., the location of the shock front or the location of the maximum pressure) and then used a piecewise linear fit between these locations. This reduced the number of outputs needed from the emulator to 40, down from the O(1000) points in the Hyades output. Then, using Bayesian MARS and Gaussian process regression, we were able to build emulators for Hyades and study sensitivities to input parameters.     

Advanced Scientific Computing in BASIC With Applications in Chemistry,Biology, and Pharmacology

Tuning and calibration are processes for improving the representativeness of a computer simulation code to a physical phenomenon. This article introduces a statistical methodology for simultaneously determining tuning and calibration parameters in settings where data are available from a computer code and the associated physical experiment. Tuning parameters are set by minimizing a discrepancy measure while the distribution of the calibration parameters are determined based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. The proposed Bayesian model views the output as a realization of a Gaussian stochastic process with hyper-priors. Draws from the resulting posterior distribution are obtained by the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Our methodology is compared with an alternative approach in examples and is illustrated in a biomechanical engineering application. Supplemental materials, including the software and a user manual, are available online and can be requested from the first author.     

Estimation of input parameters in complex simulation using a Gaussian process metamodel

The unknown input parameters of a simulation code are usually adjusted by the nonlinear least squares estimation (NLSE) method which minimizes the sum of differences between computer responses and real observations. However, when a simulation program is very complex and takes several hours for one execution, the NLSE method may not be computationally feasible. In this case, one may build a statistical metamodel which approximates the complex simulation code. Then this metamodel is used as if it is the true simulation code in the NLSE method, which makes the problem computationally feasible. This ‘approximated’ NLSE method is described in this article. A Gaussian process model is used as a metamodel of complex simulation code. The proposed method is validated through a toy-model study where the true parameters are known a priori. An application to nuclear fusion device is presented.     

Laboratory measurements of spectral reflection from ice clouds of various habits

Spectral light from 550 to 650 nm reflected from the surface of an ice cloud produced in a temperature-controlled column is measured at seven different angles between 16.7 degrees and 29.9 degrees . Cloud optical depth (tau) is determined from the extinction of a 670 nm laser and is corrected for forward scattering using a Monte Carlo ray-tracing algorithm. Reflection measurements are compared to expectations from a plane-parallel radiative transfer model with input parameters based on the measured tau and a phase function for the observed ice crystal types. The plane-parallel radiative transfer model can be used to interpret the measured reflection for tau less than about 0.4 for this particular experiment, ideal for providing a validation data set to assist with the development of satellite bidirectional remote sensing.     

Characterization of milk properties with a radiative transfer model

To characterize milk through light-scattering measurements, a semianalytical radiative transfer model was used to simulate the backscatter of light in milk having homogenized fat levels from 0.05 to 3.2 wt. %. The input parameters to the model include the incident wavelength, refractive index of particles and medium, and particle number densities. By varying the wavelength, we can obtain a reasonable fit between experimental data and the model for lower fat milks. Results indicate that the model is most sensitive to the particle diameter and size distribution and less sensitive to the number and index of refraction of the particles.     

Finite element simulation of the braiding process for arbitrary mandrel shapes

An approach to simulate the two-dimensional braiding process using a commercial explicit finite element software is presented. Preforms with generic shapes are analyzed. A procedure is given to determine the boundary conditions of the braiding mandrel including the extraction of necessary geometry information. The friction coefficients needed as input parameters are determined in separate tests. The simulation results are processed with an algorithm that derives the braiding angle and the axial spacing of the yarns. For validation, a generic mandrel geometry is overbraided and a method to compare simulation and experiment is presented. The preform is analyzed using an optical sensor. The measurements are filtered and averaged. The simulation model is validated by comparing the braiding angle of simulation and experiment. A good agreement between simulation and experimental results is achieved.     

Beamstrahlung from colliding electron-positron beams with negligible disruption

We present radiative energy loss formulas for beamstrahlung from colliding electron-positron beams which experience negligible disruption, as determined by numerical simulation. Our computer code uses the correct quantum mechanical photon number spectrum for synchrotron radiation emitted by relativistic electrons to simulate with macroparticles the discrete nature of photon emission. For Gaussian beams with small average electron energy loss, we determine energy loss formulas valid for all radiation regimes from classical to extreme quantum mechanical which depend on only two beam parameters, a quantum radiation parameter ϒ₀ and a beam energy per unit length, Γ₀.     

Prediction of turn down warping during hot plate rolling based on a Gaussian function

Turn down warping is a shape defect observed at the front end of a plate during hot rolling. To produce a flat plate without warping, a precise prediction of turn down warping is essential to achieve optimal control. Therefore, we propose a model based on a Gaussian function to predict turn down warping. The model uses the results from numerical analyses of hot plate rolling. The finite element code MARC was used for the numerical analysis. Hot plate rolling processing parameters, such as roll diameter, plate dimension, rolling speed, and pass line were all considered in the model. To verify the accuracy of the prediction model, the numerical results obtained by FEM were confirmed with data measured during industrial hot plate rolling. For the actual measurements of turn down warping, image processed high speed camera data from the exit side of the rolling were used. The results show that the proposed Gaussian function model can successfully predict turn down warping of a plate’s front end under various hot plate rolling conditions.     

金属橡胶消极减振系统复杂响应特性研究

对金属橡胶非线性消极减振系统的复杂响应特性进行了研究,基于减振器的双折线本构关系对隔振器的迟滞恢复力进行了线性等效,推导了减振系统的状态方程;对减振器进行了动态加载实验,利用实验数据识别得到了减振器的实际物理参数;利用辨识得到的有量纲的物理参数对系统进行数值仿真,绘制了系统随激励幅值和频率变化的分岔图,确定了系统产生混沌振动的参数区间,分析了金属橡胶减振系统的单频输入多频甚至宽频输出的复杂响应特性,并通过振动实验进行了验证。     

Use of sky brightness measurements from ground for remote sensing of particulate polydispersions

The software code SKYEAD.pack for retrieval of aerosol size distribution and optical thickness from data of direct and diffuse solar radiation is described; measurements are carried out with sky radiometers in the wavelength range 0.369-1.048 μm. The treatment of the radiative transfer problem concerning the optical quantities is mainly based on the IMS (improved multiple and single scattering) method, which uses the delta-M approximation for the truncation of the aerosol phase function and corrects the solution for the first- and second-order scattering. Both linear and nonlinear inversion methods can be used for retrieving the size distribution. Improved calibration methods for both direct and diffuse radiation, the data-analysis procedure, the results from the proposed code, and several connected problems are discussed. The results can be summarized as follows: (a) the SKYRAD.pack code can retrieve the columnar aerosol features with accuracy and efficiency in several environmental situations, provided the input parameters are correctly given; (b) when data of both direct and diffuse solar radiation are used, the detectable radius interval for aerosol particles is approximately from 0.03 to 10 μm; (c) besides the retrieval of the aerosol features, the data-analysis procedure also permits the determination of average values for three input parameters (real and imaginary aerosol refractive index, ground albedo) from the optical data; (d) absolute calibrations for the sky radiometer are not needed, and calibrations for direct and diffuse radiation can be carried out with field data; (e) the nonlinear inversion gives satisfactory results in a larger radius interval, without the unrealistic humps that occur with the linear inversion, but the results strongly depend on the first-guess spectrum; (f) aerosol features retrieved from simulated data showed a better agreement with the given data for the linear inversion than for the nonlinear inversion.     

Replication or Exploration? Sequential Design for Stochastic Simulation Experiments

We investigate the merits of replication, and provide methods for optimal design (including replicates), with the goal of obtaining globally accurate emulation of noisy computer simulation experiments. We first show that replication can be beneficial from both design and computational perspectives, in the context of Gaussian process surrogate modeling. We then develop a lookahead-based sequential design scheme that can determine if a new run should be at an existing input location (i.e., replicate) or at a new one (explore). When paired with a newly developed heteroscedastic Gaussian process model, our dynamic design scheme facilitates learning of signal and noise relationships which can vary throughout the input space. We show that it does so efficiently, on both computational and statistical grounds. In addition to illustrative synthetic examples, we demonstrate performance on two challenging real-data simulation experiments, from inventory management and epidemiology. Supplementary materials for the article are available online.     

无模型控制在气动变载荷加载系统中的应用

针对气动加载系统压力跟踪控制中强非线性、强耦合性、模型不精确性等问题,提出一种无模型自适应控制(model-free adaptive controller,MFAC)器,该控制器结构简单、参数少、不需要被控系统的数学模型,是一种低成本的控制器。其中的伪偏导数估计算法仅需利用受控系统的输入输出数据来估计伪偏导数,使该算法具有更强的灵活性和一般性。然后在三种典型的输入信号下与经典PID控制进行仿真比较,并在气动变载荷摩擦磨损试验机试验平台上进行了试验验证,仿真和试验结果表明,无模型自适应控制器具有非常强的适应性和鲁棒性,而且在工程上易于实现。     

用于环形正负电子对撞机探测器超导磁体的小型氦虹吸回路实验与数值模拟研究

在探测器超导磁体的低温系统预研中,搭建了小型的氦虹吸冷却回路实验系统,进行了气-液两相沸腾和传热特性实验研究,并利用VOF多相流模型模拟计算了氦的热虹吸自然冷却循环过程和过热烧干过程。在相同条件下,模拟计算结果与实验数据进行了比较,模拟计算得到的的温度分布、璧面过热度与实验测量数据符合度较好。     

基于小波、小波包两种方法的爆破振动信号对比分析

在小波、小波包的理论基础上,结合某市城市建设中基岩爆破中振动监测数据,采用这两种方法对同一爆破振动信号在信号去噪、对细节信号的处理、信号的分解与重构方面将两种方法的应用和效果进行了对比。分析表明,采用小波包技术研究爆破地震波信号比小波分析技术有更强的灵活性,能更加完整地反映爆破振动信号的特征。     

45CrNiMoVA高速切削条件下本构关系建模技术研究

为建立连续介质材料高速切削的材料本构关系模型,以45Cr Ni Mo VA材料为研究对象,通过准静态扭转试验和直角自由切削试验相结合的方法,建立了满足高速切削仿真要求的45Cr Ni Mo VA材料的Johnson-Cook本构模型.采用建立的Johnson-Cook本构模型参数,利用ABAQUS有限元分析软件建立了直角自由切削的有限元模型,对切削过程中的切屑厚度、主切削力、进给抗力进行了仿真,并将仿真预测值同试验测量值进行了对比.结果表明:由于切削仿真过程中刀具不存在磨损,进给抗力的仿真误差较大;主切削力和切屑厚度的仿真预测值与试验测量值的误差在10%之内,模型的准确度较好.最后,利用VB和C语言,开发了Johnson-Cook材料本构集成建模系统,并验证了其使用效果的实用性.     

爆炸荷载作用下坑道结构振动响应及影响因素分析

根据爆炸荷载条件下的模型坑道试验,运用LS-DYNA显式动力分析软件,对试验中典型坑道段在顶爆和侧爆作用下的动力响应进行了数值模拟计算,研究了模型坑道结构在爆炸荷载下的最大振动加速度分布特征,并与试验结果进行了对比验证。结果表明,计算结果和实测结果基本吻合,能够真实反映爆炸荷载下坑道结构的振动响应。最后对不同单个影响坑道振动的截面形状参数进行了一系列数值计算,分析了在相同爆炸荷载下单个特定参数对坑道振动影响规律。     

Numerical and experimental investigations of laser shock forming aluminum alloy sheet with mold

Laser shock forming (LSF) technology employs shock waves to form sheet metal into three-dimensional complex parts, and has application potential in manufacturing sheet metal parts. In this paper, the forming of 2024 aluminum alloy sheet with LSF was investigated through numerical and experimental methods. The numerical model was established with the commercial code ABAQUS/Explicit. The formed conical cup was obtained from the simulation, and validated by the experiment. With the verified numerical model, the deformation behaviors, including deformation velocity, sheet thickness variation and strain distribution, were studied. In addition, the influence of different shock wave pressures on the forming precision was also investigated. The experimental and numerical results show that the metal sheet loaded by shock wave can take the shape of the mold, and the non-uniform thickness is distributed in the formed cup. The investigations also display that there exists reverse deformation at the central region of deforming sheet owing to severe collision during LSF. In order to obtain formed part with better quality, an appropriate pressure of applied shock waves is required.     

三维超声地震模型实时成像系统

室内水槽实验是研究地质沉积过程及其演化规律的重要手段,高精度获取沉积过程中的地质体的变化是这类模拟实验非常关键的环节。文章介绍了新研制的三维超声地震模型实时成像系统的主要组成及关键技术。该系统用于模拟海上地震,可以在沉积实验后通过快速测量及对数据的实时偏移处理与成像可以获取变化的多层复杂地质模型动态图像,极大地提高了实验效率和成像精度。该系统具有良好的实时性、成像质量以及探测范围,在对研究地质沉积、海洋地质以及三维地震模型研究等方面有着广泛应用前景。     

Case studies in Gaussian process modelling of computer codes

In this paper we present a number of recent applications in which an emulator of a computer code is created using a Gaussian process model. Tools are then applied to the emulator to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis is used both as an aid to model improvement and as a guide to how much the output uncertainty might be reduced by learning about specific inputs. Uncertainty analysis allows us to reflect output uncertainty due to unknown input parameters, when the finished code is used for prediction.The computer codes themselves are currently being developed within the UK Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics.