Contrasting ideal and realistic conditions as a means to improve judgment-based software development effort estimation

Context

The effort estimates of software development work are on average too low. A possible reason for this tendency is that software developers, perhaps unconsciously, assume ideal conditions when they estimate the most likely use of effort. In this article, we propose and evaluate a two-step estimation process that may induce more awareness of the difference between idealistic and realistic conditions and as a consequence more realistic effort estimates. The proposed process differs from traditional judgment-based estimation processes in that it starts with an effort estimation that assumes ideal conditions before the most likely use of effort is estimated.

Objective

The objective of the paper is to examine the potential of the proposed method to induce more realism in the judgment-based estimates of work effort.

Method

Three experiments with software professionals as participants were completed. In all three experiments there was one group of participants which followed the proposed and another group which followed the traditional estimation process. In one of the experiments there was an additional group which started with a probabilistically defined estimate of minimum effort before estimating the most likely effort.

Results

We found, in all three experiments, that estimation of most likely effort seems to assume rather idealistic assumptions and that the use of the proposed process seems to yield more realistic effort estimates. In contrast, starting with an estimate of the minimum effort, rather than an estimate based on ideal conditions, did not have the same positive effect on the subsequent estimate of the most likely effort.

Conclusion

The empirical results from our studies together with similar results from other domains suggest that the proposed estimation process is promising for the improvement of the realism of software development effort estimates.     

Simultaneous input and state estimation for nonlinear systems with applications to flow field estimation

This paper studies the problem of simultaneous input and state estimation (SISE) for nonlinear dynamical systems with and without direct input–output feedthrough. We take a Bayesian perspective to develop a sequential joint input and state estimation approach. Our scheme gives rise to a nonlinear Maximum a Posteriori optimization problem, which we solve using the classical Gauss–Newton method. The proposed approach generalizes a number of SISE methods presented in the literature. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme for nonlinear systems with direct feedthrough in an oceanographic flow field estimation problem involving submersible drogues that measure position intermittently and acceleration continuously.     

一种基于FastICA的波达方向估计新方法

独立分量分析是一种新颖的盲源分离技术，该方法作为目前信号处理领域的一项新技术，具有非常重要的理论意义和实用价值，已广泛应用于通讯、雷达信号处理、生物医学图像处理、模式识别等众多领域。简要介绍了独立分量分析的基本原理和算法，并提出将快速独立分量分析（FastICA）方法应用于波达方向估计（DOA），通过仿真实验和分析，可以得到DOA的一种简单估计，实验结果亦表明该算法在波达方向估计应用中的可行性和有效性。     

目标运动分析的前向与后向测距测速算法

目标运动分析中测距测速的精度与目标在空间的距离以及运动方式有关,为了提高目标在相向运动和相背运动下的距离和速度的估值精度,提出了前向和后向测距测速的概念,在此基础上给出了前向后向混合算法,对距离和速度的估计精度进行了理论分析。该算法利用目标航迹上前面的M个到达时间（TOA）和后面的N个TOA对当前位置的距离和速度进行估计,兼顾了算法性能和估值的时间延时特性。仿真结果验证了前向后向混合算法的性能总是好于同样数据量的前向或后向算法的性能。     

产品设计时间智能预测方法的研究

首先利用质量功能配置技术从设计要求中提取产品特征,从而确定影响设计任务所需时间的因素集;其次给出一种模糊神经网络模型来融合数据并实现时间的预测,该模型通过模糊综合评判来精简结构;最后通过注塑模具设计应用表明了该智能预测方法的有效性和可行性．     

基于多尺度主成分分析的图像局部方向估计算法

现有的大多数图像方向估计算法都对噪声非常敏感。因此,提出了一种基于主成分分析（PCA）和多尺度梯度金字塔分解的图像局部方向估计算法,其中主成分分析用于找到局部方向的最大似然（ML）估计。所提出的算法对于噪声图像非常鲁棒。在实验中,通过对模拟图像的和真实图像的方向估计,该算法都可以得到较好的估计效果,对噪声的鲁棒性较强,并且计算速度非常快。     

Face posture estimation using eigen analysis on an IBR (image based rendered) database

In this paper, we present a novel representation of the human face for estimating the orientation of the human head in a two dimensional intensity image. The method combines the use of the much familiar eigenvalue based dissimilarity measure with image based rendering. There are two main components of the algorithm described here: the offline hierarchical image database generation and organization, and the online pose estimation stage. The synthetic images of the subject's face are automatically generated offline, for a large set of pose parameter values, using an affine coordinate based image reprojection technique. The resulting database is formally called as the IBR (or image based rendered) database. This is followed by the hierarchical organization of the database, which is driven by the eigenvalue based dissimilarity measure between any two synthetic image pair. This hierarchically organized database is a detailed, yet structured, representation of the subject's face. During the pose estimation of a subject in an image, the eigenvalue based measure is invoked again to search the synthetic (IBR) image closest to the real image. This approach provides a relatively easy first step to narrow down the search space for complex feature detection and tracking algorithms in potential applications like virtual reality and video-teleconferencing applications.     

基于多个自主水下航行器的分布式协同流场估计

本文考虑利用多个自主式水下航行器(AUV)实现流场估计, 提出了一种基于树型网络的分布式方法来估计 水下流场. 在本文中, 借助绝对运动积分误差和相对运动积分误差, 流场估计问题被描述为求解一个以未知流场为 变元的非线性方程组. 继而本文在多AUV系统内建立一个低通讯成本的树型网络, 并在该网络上运行一种分布式 算法以求解与流场估计相关的非线性方程组. 在该算法中, 每个AUV将当前的流场估计值连续地投影到自身拥有 的约束方程的解集中, 并通过扩散和池化两个步骤在树型网络间传递流场估计值. 本文证明了上述算法的收敛性, 并通过仿真实验验证了所述分布式协同流场估计方法的有效性.     

基于高斯马尔可夫随机场的MAP估计在高斯噪声滤波中的应用

提出了基于高斯马尔可夫随机场(GMRF)的最大后验概率(MAP)估计在图像高斯噪声滤波中的应用方法。根据高斯噪声的先验特点,建立基于高斯马尔可夫随机场的退化图像恢复模型,从而将图像高斯噪声滤波问题转化为求解最大后验概率问题。先验概率可以根据马尔可夫随机场(MRF)和吉布斯分布(GD)的等效性, 用GD的概率估计。为了求解最大后验概率,第一,通过期望最大化(EM）算法对GMRF模型进行参数估计。第二,用共轭梯度法将目标函数最小化。实验结果表明,与其他滤波器（如高斯滤波、维纳滤波等）相比,本文所阐述的方法在滤除高斯噪声、保持图像原有结构方面效果更好。     

Dynamic estimation of optical flow field using objective functions

Optical flow (image velocity) fields are computed and interpreted from an image sequence by incorporating knowledge of object kinematics. Linear and quadratic objective functions are defined by considering the kinematics, and the function parameters are estimated simultaneously with the computation of the velocity field by relaxation. The objective functions provide an interpretation of the dynamic scenes and, at the same time, serve as the smoothness constraints. The computation is initially based on measured perpendicular velocity components of contours or region boundaries which, due to the ‘aperture problem’, are theoretically not the true perpendicular velocity components. This difficulty is alleviated by introducing a dynamic procedure for the measurement of the perpendicular components. Experiments on using objective functions for synthetic and real images of translating and rotating objects generated velocity fields that are meaningful and consistent with visual perception.     

P3P位姿测量方法的误差分析

从工程应用的角度出发,在三个控制点构成等腰三角形的条件下,研究P3P位姿测量方法的误差与输入参数误差的关系。首先在理论上推导出测量位姿误差与输入参数误差间的关系,在此基础上通过误差统计分析和直接仿真验证的方式得到在输入误差中,图像坐标的检测误差和像机内参数标定误差对测量位姿误差的影响较大,而目标模型的测量误差对测量位姿误差的影响可以忽略不计的结论。这对位姿测量系统的设计与实现具有一定的指导意义。     

流体运动估计光流算法研究综述

对流体图像序列进行运动分析一直是流体力学、医学和计算机视觉等领域的重要研究课题。从图像对中提取的密集精确的速度矢量场能够为许多领域提供有价值的信息,基于光流法的流体运动估计技术因其独特的优势成为一个有前途的方向。光流法可以获得具有较高分辨率的密集速度矢量场,在小尺度精细结构的测量上有所改进,弥补了基于相关分析法的粒子图像测速技术的不足。此外,光流方法还可以方便的引入各种物理约束,获得较为符合流体运动特性的运动估计结果。为了全面反映基于光流法的流体运动估计算法的研究进展,本文在广泛调研相关文献的基础上,对国内外具有代表性的论文进行了系统阐述。首先介绍了光流法的基本原理,然后将现有算法按照要解决的突出问题进行分类：结合流体力学知识的能量最小化函数,提高对光照变化的鲁棒性,大位移估计和消除异常值。对每类方法,从问题解决过程的角度予以介绍,分析了各类突出问题中现有算法的特点和局限性。最后,总结分析了流体运动估计技术当前面临的问题和挑战,并对未来基于光流法的运动估计算法的研究方向和研究重点进行了展望。     

A framework for globally optimal state estimation for systems with unknown inputs (I): transformation approach

In this paper, a globally optimal state estimation is addressed in light of the conventional Luenberger observer‐type filter. This paper is the first part of a comprehensive extension of an original work by Hsieh, with the main aim being to develop a transformation‐based filtering framework for global unbiased minimum‐variance state estimation (GUMVSE) for systems with unknown inputs that affect both the system and the output. The main contributions of this paper are (i) a complete optimal solution for the GUMVSE is addressed, where both the globally optimal state filter and predictor are presented, and (ii) additional insights for implementing the globally optimal state filter are highlighted via the proposed decorrelation constraint. Compared with existing results, the proposed globally optimal filter has the most general filter form among all transformation‐based globally optimal filters in the sense that it does not use any specific unknown input transformation matrix in the derivation. A simulation example is given to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley and Sons Asia Pte Ltd and Chinese Automatic Control Society     

一种复合微运动的微多普勒分析与参数估计

目标的微运动所产生的微多普勒特征包含了目标的运动和结构信息,在目标的分类、识别等领域中有着重要的作用。建立了振动与加速运动的复合微动模型,定量分析了目标的微多普勒调制特征,提出了利用提取峰值法和拟合直线法估计目标的加速度、振动频率和振动幅度等参数的方法,通过仿真验证了模型的正确性和参数估计的有效性。     

3D遮挡模型引导的光场图像深度获取

目的 光场相机可以通过单次曝光同时从多个视角采样单个场景,在深度估计领域具有独特优势。消除遮挡的影响是光场深度估计的难点之一。现有方法基于2D场景模型检测各视角遮挡状态,但是遮挡取决于所采样场景的3D立体模型,仅利用2D模型无法精确检测,不精确的遮挡检测结果将降低后续深度估计精度。针对这一问题,提出了3D遮挡模型引导的光场图像深度获取方法。方法 向2D模型中的不同物体之间添加前后景关系和深度差信息,得到场景的立体模型,之后在立体模型中根据光线的传输路径推断所有视角的遮挡情况并记录在遮挡图（occlusion map）中。在遮挡图引导下,在遮挡和非遮挡区域分别使用不同成本量进行深度估计。在遮挡区域,通过遮挡图屏蔽被遮挡视角,基于剩余视角的成像一致性计算深度;在非遮挡区域,根据该区域深度连续特性设计了新型离焦网格匹配成本量,相比传统成本量,该成本量能够感知更广范围的色彩纹理,以此估计更平滑的深度图。为了进一步提升深度估计的精度,根据遮挡检测和深度估计的依赖关系设计了基于最大期望（exception maximization,EM）算法的联合优化框架,在该框架下,遮挡图和深度图通过互相引导的方式相继提升彼此精度。结果 实验结果表明,本文方法在大部分实验场景中,对于单遮挡、多遮挡和低对比度遮挡在遮挡检测和深度估计方面均能达到最优结果。均方误差（mean square error,MSE）对比次优结果平均降低约19.75%。结论 针对遮挡场景的深度估计,通过理论分析和实验验证,表明3D遮挡模型相比传统2D遮挡模型在遮挡检测方面具有一定优越性,本文方法更适用于复杂遮挡场景的深度估计。     

Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation

A knowledge-based method for software project risk assessment and cost estimation has been implemented on multiple platforms. As an extension to the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO), it aids in project planning by identifying, categorizing, quantifying and prioritizing project risks. It also detects cost estimate input anomalies and provides risk control advice in addition to conventional COCOMO cost and schedule calculation.The method has been developed in conjunction with a system dynamics model of the software development process, and serves as an intelligent front end to the simulation model. It extends previous research in the knowledge-based cost estimation domain by focusing on risk assessment, incorporating substantially more rules, going beyond standard COCOMO, performing quantitative validation, providing a user-friendly interface, and integrating it with a dynamic simulation model.Results of the validation are promising, and the method is being used at Litton Data Systems and other industrial environments. It will be undergoing further enhancement as part of an integrated capability for software engineering to assist in system acquisition, project planning and risk management.     

特征融合网络：多通道信息融合的光场深度估计

摘 要：光场相机可以仅在一次拍摄中记录场景的空间和角度信息,所生成的图像与传统 二维图像相比包含了更多的信息,在深度估计任务方面更具有优势。为了利用光场图像获取高 质量的场景深度,基于其多视角的表征方式,提出了一种具有多通道信息高效融合结构的特征 融合网络。在人为选择特定视角的基础上,使用不同尺寸卷积核来应对不同的基线变化;同时 针对光场数据的多路输入特点搭建了特征融合模块,并利用双通道的网络结构整合神经网络的 前后层信息,提升网络的学习效率并减少信息损失。在 new HCI 数据集上的实验结果显示,该 网络在训练集上的收敛速度较快,可以在非朗伯场景中实现精确的深度估计,并且在 MSE 指 标的平均值表现上要优于所对比的其他先进的方法。     

Stochastic averaging analysis of a steepest-descent-type adaptive time-delay estimation algorithm

In this paper stochastic averaging analysis tools are used to study an adaptive time-delay estimation algorithm. Analyzing such an algorithm is very difficult because of its nonlinear, infinite-dimensional, and time-variant nature. By stochastic averaging analysis, we show that for the time-invariant delay case, the adaptive algorithm output converges weakly to the solution of an ordinary differential equation. Local convergence is demonstrated by showing that the solution of this differential equation converges exponentially to the true delay under reasonable initial conditions. Implementation of the algorithm is also discussed. Guided by the averaging results, a modified algorithm is proposed to eliminate the bias of the delay estimation. Second-order analysis is carried out and the results provide a theoretical justification of the observations made by other researchers with simulation and heuristic argument. Computer simulations are also included to support the analysis.     

A hybrid learning of multimodal cues for light field depth estimation

Learning based light field depth estimation methods have been proven to be successful, however, most of them focus on the depth cues extraction from a single representation of light field. In our opinion, existing methods are difficult to simultaneously learn various cues with different modalities, which are implied in different representations of light field. In this paper, we formulate the light field depth estimation as a pixel-wise classification task, and introduce a hybrid learning architecture to combine multimodal cues from multiple representations of light field. Three convolutional pathways are applied to predict the disparity label of each pixel from three modality representations of light field. Performing discrete disparity label classification instead of continuous disparity value regression allows us to easily fuse the prediction results of three pathways in the form of probability distribution. Evaluation experiments are carried out on the HCI 4D Light Field Benchmark. Our method, named as “FusionNet” on the benchmark website, ranks first among the published methods on high accuracy metrics of Bad Pixel Ratio 0.03 and 0.01.     

混沌系统参数估计结果的不确定性分析*

针对混沌系统参数估计研究中由于随机观测噪声影响而导致的参数估计结果不确定性问题,基于贝叶斯定理提出了一种客观评价混沌系统参数估计结果不确定性的统计方法;进而以典型的Lorenz系统为例进行了数值仿真,分析了不同大小噪声背景下各未知参数估计结果的不确定性;最后基于仿真结果提出了一种在有噪声干扰时估计混沌系统参数的有效方法——后验均值法。相同仿真条件下与前人方法的比较结果表明,该方法可有效抑制噪声影响、约束参数估计结果的不确定性,是一种有噪声情形下估计混沌系统参数的稳健方法。