Development of uniform harm criteria for use in quantitative risk analysis of the hydrogen infrastructure

This paper discusses the preliminary results of the Risk Management subtask efforts within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Hydrogen Implementing Agreement (HIA) Task 19 on Hydrogen Safety to develop uniform harm criteria for use in the Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRAs) of hydrogen facilities. The IEA HIA Task 19 efforts are focused on developing guidelines and criteria for performing QRAs of hydrogen facilities. The performance of QRAs requires that the level of harm that is represented in the risk evaluation be established using deterministic models. The level of harm is a function of the type and level of hazard. The principle hazard associated with hydrogen facilities is uncontrolled accumulation of hydrogen in (semi) confined spaces and consecutive ignition. Another significant hazard is combustion of accidentally released hydrogen gas or liquid, which may or may not happen instantaneously. The primary consequences from fire hazards consist of personnel injuries or fatalities, or facility and equipment damage due to high air temperatures, radiant heat fluxes, or direct contact with hydrogen flames. The possible consequences of explosions on humans and structures or equipment include blast wave overpressure effects, impact from fragments generated by the explosion, the collapse of buildings, and the heat effects from subsequent fire balls. A harm criterion is used to translate the consequences of an accident, evaluated from deterministic models, to a probability of harm to people, structures, or components. Different methods can be used to establish harm criteria including the use of threshold consequence levels and continuous functions that relate the level of a hazard to a probability of damage. This paper presents a survey of harm criteria that can be utilized in QRAs and makes recommendations on the criteria that should be utilized for hydrogen-related hazards.     

Economic analysis of near-term California hydrogen infrastructure

A detailed economics model of hydrogen infrastructure in California has been developed and applied to assess several potential fuel cell vehicle deployment rate and hydrogen station technology scenarios. The model accounts for all of the costs in the hydrogen supply chain and specifically examines a network of 68 planned and existing hydrogen stations in terms of economic viability and dispensed hydrogen cost. Results show that (1) current high-pressure gaseous delivery and liquid delivery station technologies can eventually be profitable with relatively low vehicle deployment rates, and (2) the cost per mile for operating fuel cell vehicles can be lower than equivalent gasoline vehicles in both the near and long term.     

Risk analysis for the infrastructure of a hydrogen economy

Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels makes the deployment of hydrogen in combination with renewable energy sources, nuclear energy or the utilization of electricity from full time operation of existing power stations an interesting alternative. A pre-requisite is, however, that the safety of the required infrastructure is investigated and that its design is made such that the associated risk is at least not higher than that of existing supplies. Therefore, a risk analysis considering its most important objects such as storage tanks, filling stations, vehicles as well as heating and electricity supplies for residential buildings was carried out. The latter are considered as representative of the entire infrastructure. The study is based on fault and event tree analyses, wherever required, and consequence calculations using the PHAST code. The procedure for evaluating the risk and corresponding results are presented taking one of the objects as an example.     

An index-based risk assessment model for hydrogen infrastructure

This study focuses on the development of a risk assessment model associated with the safety of a hydrogen infrastructure system. The safety of hydrogen infrastructure is one of the crucial pre-requisites for a sustainable economy and accordingly, its design should be made based upon the performance to investigate and evaluate the risks from or out of the required infrastructure. In order to support strategic decision-making for safe hydrogen infrastructure, this study proposes an appropriate index-based risk assessment model. The model evaluates the hydrogen infrastructure using the relative risk ranking of the hydrogen activities such as hydrogen production, storage and transportation, and the relative impact levels of regions. The relative risk rankings of the hydrogen activities are rated a quantitative risk analysis, whereas the relative impact level of regions is rated based on the regional characteristics such as population density. With consideration of regional characteristics, the proposed model makes it possible not only to assess the risks of processes and technologies associated with hydrogen but also to compare the relative safety levels of the hydrogen infrastructures made up with various hydrogen activities. In order to show the features and capabilities of the model, four future hydrogen infrastructure scenarios in Korea are examined in the study. The result shows that distributed production, and mass storage and transportation via liquefied hydrogen facility are relatively safer than centralized production, and compressed-gaseous hydrogen storage and transportation, respectively.     

A quantitative risk assessment of a domestic property connected to a hydrogen distribution network

The increased reliance on natural gas for heating worldwide makes the search for carbon-free alternatives imperative, especially if international decarbonisation targets are to be met. Hydrogen does not release carbon dioxide (CO₂) at the point of use which makes it an appealing candidate to decarbonise domestic heating. Hydrogen can be produced from either 1) the electrolysis of water with no associated carbon emissions, or 2) from methane reformation (using steam) which produces CO₂, but which is easily captured and storable during production. Hydrogen could be transported to the end-user via gas distribution networks similar to, and adapted from, those in use today. This would reduce both installation costs and end-user disruption. However, before hydrogen can provide domestic heat, it is necessary to assess the ‘risk’ associated with its distribution in direct comparison to natural gas. Here we develop a comprehensive and multi-faceted quantitative risk assessment tool to assess the difference in ‘risk’ between current natural gas distribution networks, and the potential conversion to a hydrogen based system. The approach uses novel experimental and modelling work, scientific literature, and findings from historic large scale testing programmes. As a case study, the risk assessment tool is applied to the newly proposed H100 demonstration (100% hydrogen network) project. The assessment includes the comparative risk of gas releases both upstream and downstream of the domestic gas meter. This research finds that the risk associated with the proposed H100 network (based on its current design) is lower than that of the existing natural gas network by a factor 0.88.     

A quantitative risk assessment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts

With the increasing deployment of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts, it is essential to understand the risks of incidents involving these systems. A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) study was conducted to determine the potential hydrogen release scenarios, probabilities, and consequences in fuel cell forklift operations. QRA modeling tools, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and event sequence diagrams (ESD), were used together with hydrogen systems data. This work provides insights into the fatality risk from a hydrogen fuel cell forklift and the reliability of its design and components. The analysis shows that the expected fatal accident rate of a hydrogen forklift is considerably higher than current fatal injury rates observed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for industrial truck operators and material handling occupations. Nevertheless, the average individual risk posed to forklift drivers was found to be likely tolerable based on current risks accepted by industrial truck operators. Jet fires are found to dominate the system's risk, however, the risk of explosions is also considerable. An importance measures analysis shows that these risks could be mitigated by improving the design and reliability of pressure relief devices, as well as other components prone to leak such as filters and check valves. We also identify sources of uncertainty and conservatisms in the QRA process that can guide future research in hydrogen systems. These results provide powerful insight into improvements in the design of fuel cell forklifts to reduce risk and enable the safe deployment of this key technology for a decarbonized future.     

Development of European hydrogen infrastructure scenarios—CO2 reduction potential and infrastructure investment

For the introduction of a hydrogen economy one of the most relevant questions is: what are the suitable feedstocks and production technologies for hydrogen, which is a secondary energy carrier, taking into account the manifold objectives of hydrogen introduction: the cost-effective substitution of oil, increasing the security of energy supply, and reducing CO₂ and other emissions? This study focuses on constructing a hydrogen infrastructure in Europe by 2030. Several hydrogen technologies and their integration into an infrastructure system, including the production, transport and distribution of hydrogen, are analysed on the basis of energy chain calculations and expert judgements and consistent scenarios are developed. It can be shown that under economic and CO₂-reduction objectives, the steam reforming of gas, followed by coal gasification and, to a limited extent, the electrolysis of electricity from renewable energy carriers are the most promising hydrogen production options in this first phase for developing a hydrogen infrastructure. These options result in a significant level of CO₂-reduction. However, the total cost of the infrastructure will account for 0.3% of EU-25 GDP in 2030. This shows the extent of the challenge involved in constructing a hydrogen infrastructure.     

A feasibility analysis of hydrogen delivery system using liquid organic hydrides

The paper discusses the techno-economic feasibility of a hydrogen storage and delivery system using liquid organic hydrides (LOH). Wherein, LOH (particularly cycloalkanes) are used for transporting the hydrogen in chemical bonded form at ambient temperature and pressure. The hydrogen is delivered through a catalytic dehydrogenation process. The aromatics formed in the process are used for carrying more hydrogen by a subsequent hydrogenation reaction. Cost economics were performed on a system which produces 10 kg/h of hydrogen using methylcyclohexane as a carrier. With proprietary catalysts we have demonstrated the possibility of hydrogen storage of 6.8 wt% and 60 kg/m³ of hydrogen on volume basis. The energy balance calculation reveals the ratio of energy transported to energy consumed is about 3.9. Moreover, total carbon footprint calculation for the process of hydrogen delivery including transportation of LOH is also reported. The process can facilitate a saving of 345 tons/year of carbon dioxide emissions per delivery station by replacing gasoline with hydrogen for passenger cars. There is an immense techno-economic potential for the process.     

Design proposal for hydrogen refueling infrastructure deployment in the Northeastern United States

Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are expected to be commercially available on the world market in 2015, therefore, introducing hydrogen-refueling stations is an urgent issue to be addressed. This paper proposes deployment plan of hydrogen infrastructure for the success of their market penetration in the Northeastern United States. The plan consists of three-timeline stages from 2013 to 2025 and divides the designated region into urban area, suburban area and area adjacent to expressway, so that easy to access to hydrogen stations can be realized. Station is chosen from four types of stations: off-site station, urban-type on-site station, suburban-type on-site station and portable station, associated with growing demand. In addition, on-site station is used as hydrogen production factory for off-site station to save total investment. This deployment plan shows that 83% of urban residents can reach station within 10 min in 2025, and that more than 90% people especially in four major cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. can get to station within 10 min by Geographic Information System (GIS) calculation.     

Designing future hydrogen infrastructure: Insights from analysis at different spatial scales

This paper critically reviews the growing literature optimising hydrogen infrastructure. We examine studies across spatial scales: national scale studies using energy system models; regional scale studies optimising spatially disaggregated hydrogen infrastructure; and local scale studies optimising the siting of filling stations. For the latter two types of study, we critically assess the assumptions made around hydrogen demand, a key exogenous input into these studies. We identify knowledge gaps and issues that have not been sufficiently addressed in the literature, and we suggest areas for further work.     

The quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen generation unit

The safety of hydrogen generation process is a major concern. This paper discusses the quantitative analyzes of the risk imposed on neighborhood from the operation of a hydrogen generator using natural gas reforming process. For this purpose, after hazard identification, the frequency of scenarios was estimated using generic data. Quantitative risk assessment was applied for consequence modeling and risk estimation. The results revealed that, jet fire caused by a full bore rupture in Desulphurization reactor has the highest fatality (26person) and affects the largest area of 5102 m². The lethality radius, maximum radiation and safe distance of this incident were 140 m, 370 kW/m² and 225 m respectively. A full bore rupture in Reformer can lead to the most dangerous flash fire. In this incident the concentration of released material in LFL zone (area of 1483.17 m²) and ½ LEL zone (area of 1970.74 m²) were 61,125 ppm and 40,000 ppm respectively. QRA is a credible method to assess the risks of hydrogen generation process.     

Safety investigation of hydrogen energy storage systems using quantitative risk assessment

Hydrogen energy storage systems are expected to play a key role in supporting the net zero energy transition. Although the storage and utilization of hydrogen poses critical risks, current hydrogen energy storage system designs are primarily driven by cost considerations to achieve economic benefits without safety considerations. This paper aims to study the safety of hydrogen storage systems by conducting a quantitative risk assessment to investigate the effect of hydrogen storage systems design parameters such as storage size, mass flow rate, storage pressure and storage temperature. To this end, the quantitative risk assessment procedure, which includes data collection and hazard identification, frequency analysis, consequence analysis and risk analysis, was carried out for the hydrogen storage system presented in a previous study [1]. In the consequence analysis, the Millers model and TNO multi-energy were used to model the jet fire and explosion hazards, respectively. The results show that the storage capacity and pressure have the greatest influence on the hydrogen storage system risk assessment. More significantly, the design parameters may affect the acceptance criteria based on the gaseous hydrogen standard. In certain cases of large storage volume or high storage pressure, risk mitigation measures must be implemented since the risk of the hydrogen storage system is unacceptable in accordance with ISO 19880-1. The study highlights the significance of risk analysis conduction and the importance of considering costs associated with risk mitigation in the design of hydrogen storage system.     

Multidimensional risk analysis of hydrogen pipelines

Hydrogen has the highest mass specific energy content of all conventional fuels and is the most abundant element in the universe. It is considered as a renewable resource and sustainable solution for reducing global fossil fuel consumption and combating global warming. In general, it must be transported from production plants to demand points. Thus, the delivery process of its supply chain leads to the possibility of there being new forms of hazard. Pipelines have proven to be one of the cheapest ways to transport hydrogen. However, failures in pipelines can pose major risks. In this context, this paper proposes a multicriteria decision model for assessing the risk in hydrogen pipelines. By incorporating the decision maker's preferences structure into the decision process, the model enables sections of the pipeline to be ranked in terms of risk. The model proposed in this work is considered as an evolution of previous studies in the area, due to new features incorporated in the process. Finally, a numerical application is conducted in order to test the model.     

Large-scale long-distance land-based hydrogen transportation systems: A comparative techno-economic and greenhouse gas emission assessment

Interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier is growing as countries look to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in hard-to-abate sectors. Previous works have focused on hydrogen production, well-to-wheel analysis of fuel cell vehicles, and vehicle refuelling costs and emissions. These studies use high-level estimates for the hydrogen transportation systems that lack sufficient granularity for techno-economic and GHG emissions analysis. In this work, we assess and compare the unit costs and emission footprints (direct and indirect) of 32 systems for hydrogen transportation. Process-based models were used to examine the transportation of pure hydrogen (hydrogen pipeline and truck transport of gaseous and liquified hydrogen), hydrogen-natural gas blends (pipeline), ammonia (pipeline), and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (pipeline and rail). We used sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to determine the parameters impacting the cost and emission estimates. At 1000 km, the pure hydrogen pipelines have a levelized cost of $0.66/kg H₂ and a GHG footprint of 595 gCO₂eq/kg H₂. At 1000 km, ammonia, liquid organic hydrogen carrier, and truck transport scenarios are more than twice as expensive as pure hydrogen pipeline and hythane, and more than 1.5 times as expensive at 3000 km. The GHG emission footprints of pure hydrogen pipeline transport and ammonia transport are comparable, whereas all other transport systems are more than twice as high. These results may be informative for government agencies developing policies around clean hydrogen internationally.     

Demonstration of a novel assessment methodology for hydrogen infrastructure deployment

To reduce criteria pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases from mobile sources, the use of hydrogen as a transportation fuel is proposed as a new paradigm in combination with fuel cells for vehicle power. The extent to which reductions can and will occur depends on the mix of technologies that constitute the hydrogen supply chain. This paper introduces an analysis and planning methodology for estimating emissions, greenhouse gases, and the energy efficiency of the hydrogen supply chain as a function of the technology mix on a life cycle, well to wheels (WTW) basis. The methodology, referred to as the preferred combination assessment (PCA) model, is demonstrated by assessing an illustrative set of hydrogen infrastructure (generation and distribution) deployment scenarios in California's South Coast Air Basin. Each scenario reflects a select mix of technologies for the years 2015, 2030, and 2060 including (1) the proportion of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources of the hydrogen and (2) the rate of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle adoption. The hydrogen deployment scenarios are compared to the existing paradigm of conventional vehicles and fuels with a goal to reveal and evaluate the efficacy and utility of the PCA methodology. In addition to a demonstration of the methodology, the salient conclusions reached from this first application include the following.

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Emissions of criteria pollutants increase or decrease, depending on the hydrogen deployment scenario, when compared to an evolution of the existing paradigm of conventional vehicles and fuels.     

3D risk management for hydrogen installations

This paper introduces the 3D risk management (3DRM) concept, with particular emphasis on hydrogen installations (Hy3DRM). The 3DRM framework entails an integrated solution for risk management that combines a detailed site-specific 3D geometry model, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool for simulating flow-related accident scenarios, methodology for frequency analysis and quantitative risk assessment (QRA), and state-of-the-art visualization techniques for risk communication and decision support. In order to reduce calculation time, and to cover escalating accident scenarios involving structural collapse and projectiles, the CFD-based consequence analysis can be complemented with empirical engineering models, reduced order models, or finite element analysis (FEA). The paper outlines the background for 3DRM and presents a proof-of-concept risk assessment for a hypothetical hydrogen filling station. The prototype focuses on dispersion, fire and explosion scenarios resulting from loss of containment of gaseous hydrogen. The approach adopted here combines consequence assessments obtained with the CFD tool FLACS-Hydrogen from Gexcon, and event frequencies estimated with the Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) tool from Sandia, to generate 3D risk contours for explosion pressure and radiation loads. For a given population density and set of harm criteria, it is straightforward to extend the analysis to include personnel risk, as well as risk-based design such as detector optimization. The discussion outlines main challenges and inherent limitations of the 3DRM concept, as well as prospects for further development towards a fully integrated framework for risk management in organizations.     

Stochastic explosion risk analysis of hydrogen production facilities

Explosion risk analysis (ERA) is an effective method to investigate potential accidents in hydrogen production facilities. The ERA suffers from significant hydrogen dispersion-explosion scenario-related parametric uncertainty. To better understand the uncertainty in ERA results, thousands of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) scenarios need to be computed. Such a large number of CFD simulations are computationally expensive. This study presents a stochastic procedure by integrating a Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN) methodology with ERA to effectively manage the uncertainty as well as reducing the stimulation intensity in hydrogen explosion risk study. This BRANN method randomly generates thousands of non-simulation data presenting the relevant hydrogen dispersion and explosion physics. The generated data is used to develop scenario-based probability models, which are then used to estimate the exceedance frequency of maximum overpressure. The performance of the proposed approach is verified by analyzing the parametric sensitivity on the exceedance frequency curve and comparing the results against the traditional ERA approach.     

Techno-economic analysis of hydrogen transportation infrastructure using ammonia and methanol

The transformation from a fossil fuels economy to a low carbon economy reshapes how energy is transmitted. Since most renewable energy is harvested in the form of electricity, hydrogen obtained from water electrolysis using green electricity is considered a promising energy vector. However, the storage and transportation of hydrogen at large scales pose challenges to the existing energy infrastructures, both regarding technological and economic aspects. To facilitate the distribution of renewable energy, a set of candidate hydrogen transportation infrastructures using methanol and ammonia as hydrogen carriers were proposed. A systematical analysis reveals that the levelized costs of transporting hydrogen using methanol and ammonia in the best cases are $1879/t-H₂ and $1479/t-H₂, respectively. The levelized cost of energy transportation using proposed infrastructures in the best case is $10.09/GJ. A benchmark for hydrogen transportation infrastructure design is provided in this study.