The impact of widespread deployment of fuel cell vehicles on platinum demand and price

Current automotive fuel cells rely on platinum catalysts. At today’s platinum loading and price, a 50-kW fuel cell contains approximately 46 g of platinum costing $2200. Analysts expect that with further development of fuel cell technology, the platinum loading per car will decline perhaps by an order of magnitude, which will tend to reduce platinum costs per car. However, cost reductions from a decline in platinum loading might be partially offset by an increase in the price of platinum. Historically, platinum prices have been sensitive to changes in demand, and the widespread substitution of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) for internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) might significantly drive up platinum demand and hence platinum prices. The possible impact of rising platinum prices has been raised as a potential barrier to the commercialization of FCVs.In this paper, we estimate the total cost of platinum in future FCVs considering the impact of worldwide introduction of hydrogen FCVs on platinum loading, platinum demand and price. The total platinum cost per FCV is the product of the platinum per FCV and the price of platinum. Using historical data and a scenario for platinum recycling, we estimate the price of platinum as a function of demand, which in turn is a function of the amount of platinum per FCV and the total number of FCVs. For a scenario where FCVs reach 40% of light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales globally by 2050, we find that the average platinum price increases by around 70%, but that the average platinum loading declines by about 90%, so that the overall the cost per FCV declines by almost 80%, from current values of about $2200 to about $500 in 2045 and beyond. In 2045, platinum cost accounts for about 12.6% of the fuel cell system cost and about 4% of the vehicle cost.     

Comparative lifecycle assessment of hydrogen fuel cell,electric, CNG,and gasoline-powered vehicles under real driving conditions

Since transportation is one of the major contributors of global warming and air pollution, developing low-emission vehicles can significantly result in a more sustainable environment. In this research study, four different types of personal vehicles, including gasoline-fueled, CNG-fueled, electric, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) vehicles, are considered to analyze the role of personal vehicles in transportation. In the first step, based on common vehicles, all selected vehicles are simulated in the Simcenter Amesim Software. The primary aim of the modeling is to investigate the performance of each vehicle under the NYC driving conditions. The results indicate that under the selected driving cycle, CNG and gasoline-fueled vehicles consume 165.44g and 174.07g of CNG and gasoline in each driving cycle respectively, while the electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles consume 1.51% of the battery pack capacity and 26.47 g of hydrogen per driving cycle, respectively. In the next step, to study the vehicles' life cycle assessments (LCA), the GREET software is implemented to investigate the overall performance of the vehicles from the cradle to the grave. Based on the LCA results, CO₂, CO, NOx, GHG, and SOx pollution are examined for all selected vehicles, in which the FCV indicates the best behavior. Finally, the emitted CO₂ for FCV in comparison with gasoline-fueled, CNG-fueled, and EV vehicles were 75.87%, 73.42%, and 35.5% lower, respectively.     

An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile

The global demand for platinum has consistently outgrown supply in the past decade. This trend likely will continue and the imbalance may possibly escalate into a crisis. Platinum plays pivotal roles in both conventional automobile emissions control and the envisioned hydrogen economy. A platinum crisis would have profound implications on energy and environment. On the one hand, inadequate platinum supply will prevent widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. On the other hand, expensive platinum may enhance the competitiveness of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-powered electric cars. Policymakers should weigh the potential impacts of a platinum crisis in energy policy.     

Who are the early adopters of fuel cell vehicles?

All new technologies, including automotive technologies, are first purchased by early adopters. These consumers are currently posed with the choice of purchasing a fuel cell vehicle (FCV) or a variety of other alternatively fueled vehicles, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For FCVs to be commercially successful they need to carve out their own niche in the automotive market, something which may prove challenging in the face of strong BEV market growth. The results in this paper come from a questionnaire survey of 470 FCV owners and 1550 BEV owners. The paper explores the socio-economic profile, travel patterns, and attitudes of FCV buyers and compares them to the buyers of BEVs. The result suggests that the adopters of BEVs and FCV are similar in gender, level of education, household income, and have similar travel patterns. They have differences in age, ownership of previous alternative fuel vehicles, attitudes towards sustainability, and more FCV owners live in rented homes and apartment buildings. The results of the study suggest that FCVs may appeal to consumers who live in homes where they cannot recharge a BEV or install their own charger. FCVs still have several challenges to overcome, including the lack of hydrogen refueling stations and a lack of FCV models to choose from.     

A game theoretic analysis of a closed-loop water-energy nexus: The effect of technology efficiency and market competition on the market equilibrium and social welfare

Water and energy are two scarce and concerning resources interconnected in the closed-loop water-energy nexus, exemplifying the co-dependence of water and energy production. In this article, we investigate the interaction between the industries of these two resources and model it as a simultaneous game. We consider a supply chain that consists of water suppliers (WSs), power suppliers (PSs), and consumers of these commodities. In the supply chain, WSs purchase power from the power market, and PSs purchase water from the water market. Other consumers can also buy these resources at the water and power markets. The prices of these commodities depend on their quantities supplied to the markets. Each firm tries to maximize its own profit, in doing so the suppliers of water and power decide their production quantities. In this research, the Nash equilibria of the firms are determined and a comparative statics is performed on various economic measures. When there are multiple equilibria, the analysis finds the Pareto optimal equilibrium. We find that when there is sufficient supply to meet the demand of both industries and consumers, improvement of production technology improves social welfare and other economic measures of the supply chain. We also find that higher competition in either industry improves all economic measures. However, when either water or power supply is solely consumed by the firms in the cross industry, improvement of technology and higher competition can have a negative effect on some measures.     

Efficiencies of hydrogen storage systems onboard fuel cell vehicles

Energy efficiency, vehicle weight, driving range, and fuel economy are compared among fuel cell vehicles (FCV) with different types of fuel storage and battery-powered electric vehicles. Three options for onboard fuel storage are examined and compared in order to evaluate the most energy efficient option of storing fuel in fuel cell vehicles: compressed hydrogen gas storage, metal hydride storage, and onboard reformer of methanol. Solar energy is considered the primary source for fair comparison of efficiencies for true zero emission vehicles. Component efficiencies are from the literature. The battery powered electric vehicle has the highest efficiency of conversion from solar energy for a driving range of 300 miles. Among the fuel cell vehicles, the most efficient is the vehicle with onboard compressed hydrogen storage. The compressed gas FCV is also the leader in four other categories: vehicle weight for a given range, driving range for a given weight, efficiency starting with fossil fuels, and miles per gallon equivalent (about equal to a hybrid electric) on urban and highway driving cycles.     

2006年国际原油市场前瞻

2006年国际原油市场在上升动力和阻力的双重作用下,仍将处于高位盘整时期。一方面,由于原油品种地区和结构性矛盾突出、OPEC的剩余产能不足、中东局势动荡不安等多方面原因,以及基金投机力量的强劲推动,2006年国际原油价格上升动力不减;另一方面,在美元汇率上升、原油需求增速减缓以及原油供给仍有能力持续增加的多重作用下,油价上升遇到一定的阻力。2005年油价的持续高涨直接冲击了中国原油的供销链条,对相关行业产生着重要的影响。2006年,我国必须及早动手,采取措施,积极应对国际石油价格风险。     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

A solution to renewable hydrogen economy for fuel cell buses – A case study for Zhangjiakou in North China

Fuel cell vehicles fueled with renewable hydrogen is recognized as a life-cycle carbon-free option for the transport sector, however, the profitability of the H₂ pathway becomes a key issue for the FCV commercialization. By analyzing the actual data from the Zhangjiakou fuel cell transit bus project, this research reveals it is economically feasible to commercialize FCV in areas with abundant renewable resources. Low electricity for water electrolysis, localization of H₂ supply, and curtailed end price of H₂ refueling effectively reduce the hydrogen production, delivery and refueling cost, and render a chance for the profitability of refueling stations. After the fulfillment of the intense deployment of both vehicles and hydrogen stations for the 2022 Winter Olympics, the H₂ pathway starts to make a profit thereafter. The practices in the Zhangjiakou FCB project offer a solution to the hydrogen economy, which helps to break the chicken-egg dilemma of vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure.     

Economical planning of fuel cell vehicle-to-grid integrated green buildings with a new hybrid optimization algorithm

Popularity of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCVs) is an important criterion for solving the global problem of reducing CO₂ emissions. However, the overall cost of FCVs and hydrogen fuel production is relatively high, so FCV promotion is slow. Considering that FCVs have near-zero CO₂ emissions and high endurance, which is suitable for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems, this study aims to analyze the economic potential of the fuel cell vehicle-to-grid (FCV2G) systems to promote FCVs to the highest level. For this purpose, a large-scale green building was first selected as the research target and an agent to provide V2G services for the power grid. Then, Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the vehicle visiting time. A discharge model was also developed. Considering CO₂ emission price and self-elasticity coefficient of discharge price, an overall economic optimization model was presented. Then, the hybrid algorithm of competitive swarm optimization (CSO) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) was applied to optimize the model, which not only led to definite results and reduced standard deviation, but also eliminated the weakness of the CSO, i.e., convergence speed and poor performance in some benchmark functions. The simulation results indicated the proposed algorithm had faster convergence and more accuracy in finding the optimal solution than other optimization algorithms. Moreover, the overall economic profit improved in the presence of FCVs. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed on six parameters, including daily electricity price, battery cost, fuel cell cost, CO₂ emission price, power grid carbon emission, and hydrogen cost. The results showed FCV2G system had high development potential as well as great economic profit increasing over time.     

Will there be enough platinum for a large deployment of fuel cell electric vehicles?

This study focuses on the critical materials that make up hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. It addresses the issue of platinum, a catalyst for the electricity production reaction. All types of vehicles are considered, in order to have a broader inventory than many studies on the subject: Light Duty Vehicles, Light Commercial Vehicles, Buses, Coaches, Trucks and Heavy Trucks.Platinum is produced in countries that show uncertain stability. The question of reserves and resources is central, and world referent agencies and companies data were used. To reach 20% penetration rate of fuel cells Light Duty Vehicles in 2050 while preserving platinum resources until 2100, it is essential to make significant progress on the platinum load per unit of power, and to encourage consumers to collect close to 100% of their fuel cells. If platinum catalyzed fuel cells are only used in buses and trucks, penetration rates can be much higher. Nevertheless, the use of fuel cells as “Range-Extenders” for electric vehicle batteries will greatly reduce the future risk of platinum supply scarcity. Close attention must also be paid to the processes of transfer of resources to reserves.     

Assessing fuel cell vehicle innovation and the role of policy in Japan,Korea, and China

Despite intensive public and private research efforts into developing fuel cell vehicles (FCV), the global number of FCV remains small and they are unavailable for commercial purchase. We use an in-depth literature review, and bibliometric and patent analysis to analyse FCV technology within the conceptual framework of Rogers' innovation diffusion curve and suggest how the particular innovation systems and policies adopted in three key Asian car-manufacturing countries (Japan, Korea, and China) have influenced the development of FCV. Such analysis may capture trends not indicated by technical measures such as increases in efficiency or decreases in unit cost. Although Japan continues to lead in terms of number of patents and quality of academic research, Korea and China have been successful in developing fuel cell programs. Korean academics patent more frequently than their Japanese and Chinese peers, producing 18% of FC patents, with 16% of those filed also naming a private company. The 2008 financial crisis and ongoing economic uncertainty appears to have had some effect on patent activity whilst academic research appears unaffected. Diffusion curve analysis suggests that FCVs have not reached technological maturity.     

未来电动汽车新产业链的理想运行模式探讨

分析电动汽车现有研发、制作模式的弊端,综合运用汽车、电机、控制三大基础理论,提出基于四大基础部件的电动汽车最佳结构.要求汽车业联合电机、电控、电子等行业,共同协作潜心于核心技术及其基础研究,制定最佳结构的各零部件标准化,以专业化精益生产来提高性价比.为此各相关执政部门及行业协会需通过协调来整合重组新汽车产业链,使我国电...     

Environmental impact associated with the substitution of internal combustion vehicles by fuel cell vehicles refueled with hydrogen generated by electrolysis using the power grid. An estimation focused on the Autonomous Region of Murcia (Spain)

This article explores the possibilities of substituting internal combustion vehicles (ICV) by fuel cell vehicles (FCV) refueled with hydrogen generated by electrolysis during the hours of low demand in the electrical grid, having been estimated that this substitution ratio would be below 25% of the total number of vehicles existing today, against the 100% in the case of using electric vehicles. Furthermore, a network of 322 hydrogen stations would be necessary for refueling the maximum number of fuel cell vehicles, given the actual limitations of the electrical grid for hydrogen generation. Thus, considering that hydrogen used for refueling would be generated by electrolysis using the electrical grid, fuel cell vehicles would only be a 4% less polluting than an internal combustion vehicle. However, if we could achieve a substitution ratio of 25% of the total ICV by FCV, the Autonomous Region of Murcia could avoid the emission of up to 24,500 metric Tons of CO₂ to the atmosphere every year. This value contrasts with the 2.2 millions of metric tons of CO₂ that could be avoided using electric vehicles.     

Embedded energy and total greenhouse gas emissions in final consumptions within Thailand

In order to quantify the total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from different commodities, the contribution of emissions in all subprocess chains has to be considered. In embedded energy analysis, the higher order production processes are usually truncated due to a lack of data. To fill the truncated subprocesses up to infinite process chains, energy intensities and GHG emission factors of various final consumptions in the economy evaluated by the Input–Output Analysis (IOA) must be applied. The direct GHG emissions in final consumptions in Thailand are evaluated by imitating the approach in the energy sector of the revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for national GHG inventories. The indirect energy and indirect emissions are evaluated by using the 1998 Input–Output (I–O) table. Results are presented of emissions in the main process, indirect processes, and on each subprocess chain order. The trend of energy intensity and emission factors of all final consumptions for 1995, 1998, 2001 and 2006 are also presented. Results show that the highest energy intensive sector is the electricity sector where fossil fuel is primarily used, but the highest total GHG emitter is the cement industry where the major sources of the emissions are industrial processes and the combustion of fossil fuels. Implication of the emission factors on electricity generating technologies shows that various cleaner electricity generating technologies, including renewable energy technology, could help in global GHG mitigation.     

An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China

The import risks confronting oil consumers are influenced by transport conditions, oil prices, geopolitics, etc. This paper constructs an evaluation framework for oil import security from a perspective of supply chain process, and builds a two-phase DEA-like model to evaluate oil import security. China is taken as an example to measure its oil import security during 1993–2011 and to identify the main risk factors in different periods. Results indicate that China's oil import risks have kept rising since 1993 and face multiple potential threats from each stage of oil import supply chain, among which the threat from external dependence has become the biggest challenge. Under different economic situations and changing energy environment, the risk factors affecting China's oil import security switched among different stages of the supply chain, showing a phase-transitioning characteristic from import over-dependence to increasing external supply pressure. The threat of external supply has become a new risk since the pressure of decreasing availability of external resource rose.     

Economic & commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from an automotive manufacturer perspective

Ford Motor Company's experience with Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) technology began over ten years ago with the P2000 concept. Development of this vehicle demonstrated technological feasibility of, and revealed a number of challenges to, automotive fuel cell commercialization. By 2005, Ford launched the Focus FCV fleet in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy, Fuel Cells Canada (now Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Canada), and the Clean Energy Partnership (CEP). This fleet was tested to Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) and was placed in service for general on-road usage.Following the Focus fleet, Ford introduced the Fuel Cell Explorer (2005), the Hydrogen 999 (2007), and the HySeries Edge (2007). With each of these new vehicles, more forward looking technologies were implemented for on-road demonstration and testing. To-date the Company's fuel cell powertrains have logged over 1 million miles, accumulated over 30,000 h of operation, propelled an FCV in excess of 207 mph, and achieved significant milestones for cold start, cost reduction, and thermodynamic efficiency. Other achievements include the implementation of new automotive requirements and test procedures, as well as service and architectural standards unique to hydrogen/fuel cell powered vehicles.A discussion is presented here that outlines the above and other key successes in the development of Ford's automotive fuel cell technology. Additionally, inhibitors to the development path are outlined. The state of the technology suggests that recent predictions of major market penetration in the 2010–2035 time period are optimistic. Without disruptive technological change, material availability considerations alone will prevent this. Unfortunately a great deal of unwarranted hype in the popular press, industry, and academia has led to the perception that widespread automotive application of fuel cell technology is a near-term certainty. The magnitude of the technological, economic, and other challenges make this (popular) outlook unlikely. Nevertheless, Ford successes to-date lead it to remain committed to the long-term development path that it began well over a decade ago. Ford believes that fuel cell vehicles will become economically viable, and an important contributor to the resolution of global warming and air quality issues.     

A stakeholder analysis of divergent supply-chain trends for the European onshore and offshore wind installations

This paper provides a survey-based analysis of investment decisions and structural shifts related to onshore and offshore wind power supply chains. Insights on cost reductions are obtained from a detailed stakeholder survey conducted amongst the European wind power industry in 2012. Overall, a rather more optimistic view of the scope for cost reductions in offshore technology is presented than has previously been evident in empirical analysis. From the analysis we conclude that the wind power industry has experienced a decoupling process of the offshore supply chain from its onshore counterpart with diverging technological requirements. For policy-makers, it is essential to acknowledge that barriers to adoption and the consequent needs for subsidies among the players in the onshore and offshore supply chains seem to differ, and that a micro-level analysis of the innovations and risks involved at the various stages in the supply chain is necessary.     

Lifecycle performance assessment of fuel cell/battery electric vehicles

This paper has performed an assessment of lifecycle (as known as well-to-wheels, WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption of a fuel cell vehicle (FCV). The simulation tool MATLAB/Simulink is employed to examine the real-time behaviors of an FCV, which are used to determine the energy efficiency and the fuel economy of the FCV. Then, the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) model is used to analyze the fuel-cycle energy consumption and GHG emissions for hydrogen fuels. Three potential pathways of hydrogen production for FCV application are examined, namely, steam reforming of natural gas, water electrolysis using grid electricity, and water electrolysis using photovoltaic (PV) electricity, respectively. Results show that the FCV has the maximum system efficiency of 60%, which occurs at about 25% of the maximum net system power. In addition, the FCVs fueled with PV electrolysis hydrogen could reduce about 99.2% energy consumption and 46.6% GHG emissions as compared to the conventional gasoline vehicles (GVs). However, the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions of the FCVs fueled with grid-electrolysis hydrogen are 35% and 52.8% respectively higher than those of the conventional GVs. As compared to the grid-based battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the FCVs fueled with reforming hydrogen from natural gas are about 79.0% and 66.4% in the lifecycle energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively.     

Deployment of fuel cell vehicles in China: Greenhouse gas emission reductions from converting the heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel cells, as an energy source for heavy duty vehicles, are gaining attention as a potential carbon mitigation strategy. Here we calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese heavy-duty truck fleet under four hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck penetration scenarios from 2020 through 2050. We introduce Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and No Fuel Cell Vehicle (No FCV) scenarios. Under these four scenarios, the market share of heavy-duty trucks powered by fuel cells will reach 100%, 50%, 20% and 0%, respectively, in 2050. We go beyond previous studies which compared differences in GHG emissions from different hydrogen production pathways. We now combine an analysis of the carbon intensity of various hydrogen production pathways with predictions of the future hydrogen supply structure in China along with various penetration rates of heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. We calculate the associated carbon intensity per vehicle kilometer travelled of the hydrogen used in heavy-duty trucks in each scenario, providing a practical application of our research. Our results indicate that if China relies only on fuel economy improvements, with the projected increase in vehicle miles travelled, the GHG emissions of the heavy-duty truck fleet will continue to increase and will remain almost unchanged after 2025. The Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative FCV Scenarios will achieve 63%, 30% and 12% reductions, respectively, in GHG emissions in 2050 from the heavy duty truck fleet compared to the No FCV Scenario. Additional reductions are possible if the current source of hydrogen from fossil fuels was displaced with increased use of hydrogen from water electrolysis using non-fossil generated electricity.