输配电线路智能导航巡检系统研究与设计

针对当前巡检工作存在到达难、定位难、监督难、上报及时率低的现状,提出基于GPS/GPRS、嵌入式GIS和移动数据库技术,结合全国导航地图,研发了线路智能导航巡检系统.利用GPS实现人员、设施定位,巡检轨迹采集以及缺失路网采集,为线路抢修、巡检是否到位监督和巡检路径规划提供数据;利用GPRS实时上报发现的各种隐患,为及时派遣并解决问题提供准确信息.示范工程实例表明,该研究成果能有效解决传统输配电线路巡检中存在的问题.     

水电工程施工物料配送中心三维选址的能耗优化研究

水电工程施工道路具有突出的三维空间特性,施工物料供需点高差大形成的冗长路径势必加大施工物料运输能耗。以汽车运输为研究对象,分析了高差因素对物料运输能耗和物料配送中心布置的影响,结合多元线性回归模型及现场物料需求点分布情况找出优选的主干道运输路径,建立了三维选址模型,寻找物料配送中心的最优布置点,根据载货汽车运输燃料消耗量的计算规则及系数取值分析,计算出最优配送中心下的总燃料消耗量,实现了运输能耗的最优化。     

Identification of potential energy wood terminal locations using a spatial multicriteria decision analysis

The utilization of fuel wood from forests contributes to the European Energy Strategies but requires a collection system that normally consists of road/railroad infrastructure and storage sites. While a transport network usually already exists, custom-built terminals are often not available. A reliable identification of potential energy wood terminal (EWT) locations requires the consideration of spatial information and the preferences of stakeholders. To meet these requirements, a spatial multicriteria decision analysis model was developed.The model framework consists of three steps. (1) An exclusion analysis eliminates unsuitable areas. (2) The performance of suitable areas is evaluated by applying fuzzy set theory and by involving experts who assign their preferences via the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The combination of spatial data and the preferences of users results in a Suitability Index map. (3) A pre-defined grid transforms the suitable areas into potential EWT points. Planned terminals were evaluated if they meet the pre-defined threshold values. For all spatial analyses, geographic information systems technology was used.The model was demonstrated in Styria (Austria). Infrastructure and phytosanitary risks have been identified as the most important evaluation criteria for selecting EWTs, whereas land use and nature protection have been identified as negligible. Only 18% of Styria, or almost 300,000 ha, were classified as potential storage areas. In particular, coniferous forests and alpine areas with steep terrain and high snow cover duration reduced the original study area dramatically. Therefore, more than 50% of the land is potentially suitable only in the most southeastern part of the province. In this region, hilly terrain and broadleaved forests dominate, which are not excluded from storing fuel wood because of phytosanitary risks. The application of a pre-defined grid achieved 82 potential EWT points for the total area of Styria.     

Risk analysis on mobile hydrogen refueling stations in Shanghai

To better understand the hazards and risks associated with the mobile hydrogen refueling stations, a risk analysis was preformed to improve the safety of the operation. The risks to the station personnel and to the public were discussed separately. Results show that the stationary risks of the mobile stations to the personnel and refueling customers are lower than the risk acceptance criteria over an order of magnitude, so the occupational risks and the risks to customers are completely acceptable. The third party risks can be acceptable as long as the appropriate mitigation measures, especially well designed parking area and operation time, are implemented. Leak from booster compressors is the main risk contributor to the stationary risks due to the highest failure rates according to the generic data and the worst harm effects based on the consequence evaluations. However, the failure of the tube storages will result in the largest financial loss, though the likelihood of this scenario is much less than that of failure from booster compressors. As for the road risks of the mobile stations, they can be acceptable as long as the appropriate mitigation measures, especially well-planned itinerary and transport time, are implemented.     

Direct coal liquefaction safety risks: Feedstock production and transportation

We identify major factors resulting in serious injury and loss of life during coal mining and shipment necessary to supply a hypothetical 1-quad/yr direct coal liquefaction industry with feedstock and fuel. Regional siting of direct coal liquefaction processing facilities, mine type, and coal transport mode would all govern the magnitude of deaths and injuries occurring as a consequence of commercial liquefaction. Of the five coal supply regions evaluated, the most serious occupational hazards would be generated by underground mining in the Central Appalachian Basin. The least hazardous mining regions are predicted to be the Powder River and Northern Great Plains Basins. Truck transport of coal in either the Northern or Central Appalachian basins was determined to generate the greatest risk of employee fatalities and lost workdays; barging on Appalachian or mid-western waterways is least hazardous to workers. Public risks for fatal injury accidents via rail or truck transport are comparable for all regions except the Illinois Basin, which would generate approximately half the risk of the other four regions. The risks of injury and death to workers and the public during these first segments of the fuel cycle are greater than any other risks attributable to direct liquefaction commercialization.     

基于GIS的围场县洪水灾害风险区划分析

鉴于洪水灾害风险区划是研究洪水灾害的主要手段,也是评估和管理洪灾的重要内容。以围场县为例,根据其历史洪水资料和实地考察资料建立指标模型,确定了洪水灾害评估指标体系,利用GIS技术对体系中各因子进行分析、统计、聚类、插值和重分类得到各因子的空间分布图,并通过GIS的栅格数据叠加分析得到洪水灾害基本单元,进而采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,由此得到了围场县洪水灾害风险区划图。结果表明,围场县洪水灾害风险从西北到东南逐渐增大,围场镇附近风险最高;坝上地区洪水灾害风险较低,高洪水灾害风险区集中在伊逊河流域。     

Wind speed spatial estimation for energy planning in Sicily: A neural kriging application

One of the first steps for the exploitation of any energy source is necessarily represented by its estimation and mapping at the aim of identifying the most suitable areas in terms of energy potential. In the field of renewable energies this is often a very difficult task, because the energy source is in this case characterized by relevant variations over space and time. This implies that any temporal, but also spatial, estimation model has to be able to incorporate this spatial and temporal variability.The paper deals with the spatial estimation of the wind fields in Sicily (Italy) by following a data-driven approach. Starting from the results of a preliminary study, a novel technique resulting from the integration of neural and geostatistical techniques was developed in order to obtain the wind speed maps for the region at 10 and 50 meters above the ground level. The mean values of the theoretical Weibull distribution function describing the wind regime at each of the available measurement sites were used to train a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) whose goal is to compute the most of the wind spatial trends. Other pieces of information about the territory (altitude, land coverage) were also used as inputs of the network and organized into a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The remaining de-trended linear means have been computed by using a universal kriging (UK) estimator. The results of these steps were then summed up and it was thus possible to obtain a map of the estimated wind fields.     

Risk assessment for a UK pan‐European Supergrid

Interconnected electricity networks, Supergrids, are being considered to help tackle some of the current global energy challenges such as rising CO₂ emissions and the complete reliance on renewables. However, there are a range of obstacles associated with developing interconnections, not least the uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate countries with which to make interconnection. The process of identifying and then assessing various risks for these interconnections can be considered to be an important factor in mitigating and controlling their impact from within and outside national and international boundaries. To this end, this paper presents a risk‐based framework to identify and assess the risks associated with developing new interconnections with other countries. Expert's knowledge and information available from the literature were used to identify 19 construction and 11 maintenance risks and to rank them using a ‘risk’ matrix. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated using the UK as the case study. The analysis of the identified risks showed that regulatory framework, changes in energy policy and weak onshore grids require special attention and that, of those countries considered, Ireland was deemed to have the lowest risk for interconnection with the UK. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

石油企业海外投资并购风险的模糊综合评价

为了缓解了国内石油供需矛盾,中国石油企业坚定实施“走出去”战略,通过海外投资、并购获取石油资源是其中一项重要举措.实践表明,石油企业海外投资、并购所面临的风险要比在国内投资风险大,也更复杂.从政治风险、金融风险、技术风险和特定风险等方面提出了中国石油企业海外投资、并购的风险指标体系,在此基础上建立了投资、并购风险的多级模糊综合评价模型,并以中国海油竞购美国优尼科公司作为案例进行了实证分析.为中国石油企业识别与评价海外投资、并购风险提出了建议:在并购项目实施之前,并购主体应充分考察并购对象,对照风险指标体系并结合定性和定量的方法,力求得出合理的风险评价结果;在并购项目谈判过程中,并购主体应设定风险预警系统,为下一步谈判计划作出依据;不管并购成功与否,都应重视总结经验教训.     

Safety criteria for the transport of hydrogen in permanently mounted composite pressure vessels

The recent growth of the net of hydrogen fuelling stations increases the demands to transport compressed hydrogen on road by battery vehicles or tube-trailers, both in composite pressure vessels. As a transport regulation, the ADR is applicable in Europe and adjoined regions, and is used for national transport in the EU. This regulation provides requirements based on the behaviour of each individual pressure vessel, regardless of the pressure of the transported hydrogen and relevant consequences resulting from generally possible worst case scenarios such as sudden rupture. In 2012, the BAM (German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing) introduced consequence-dependent requirements and established them in national transport requirements concerning the “UN service life checks” etc. to consider the transported volume and pressure of gases. This results in a requirement that becomes more restrictive as the product of pressure and volume increases. In the studies presented here, the safety measures for hydrogen road transport are identified and reviewed through a number of safety measures from countries including Japan, the USA and China. Subsequently, the failure consequences of using trailer vehicles, the related risk and the chance are evaluated. A benefit-related risk criterion is suggested to add to regulations and to be defined as a safety goal in standards for hydrogen transport vehicles and for mounted pressure vessels. Finally, an idea is given for generating probabilistic safety data and for highly efficient evaluation without a significant increase of effort.     

Assessment of energy status for irrigation technology in Bangladesh: A GIS approach

Planning sustainable development projects requires comprehensive and reliable information to serve as the base for making timely and reasonable decisions. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used to obtain such information in a comparatively quick and easy way using specialized maps and numeric data. In this study, a GIS approach is established to enhance the development of a useful energy scenario for the selection of irrigation technologies in Bangladesh, based on the irrigated cropped area. The irrigation technologies considered were shallow tubewell, force mode tubewell, low lift pump, manual operated pump units, and traditional systems as power sources. The objective of this approach was to develop the energy scenario of irrigation technology during two cropping seasons in Bangladesh. The model estimated the amounts of energy used, the amounts needed, and shortages for the selected irrigation technologies. Mapping algebra in avenue request, and spatial analysis was done for multi-layered model development. The spatial distribution of the uses, needs, and shortages of energy was analyzed for 64 districts of Bangladesh.     

Assessment of photovoltaic potential in urban areas using open-source solar radiation tools

This study presents a methodology for the assessment of photovoltaic potential in urban areas using open-source solar radiation tools and a 3-D city model implemented in a geographic information system (GIS). The solar radiation tools are represented by the r.sun solar radiation model and PVGIS estimation utility. The applicability of the methodology has been demonstrated on a selected urban area of a small city in eastern Slovakia. The relevant attributes of buildings have been mapped and implemented in a GIS database. The selected urban area consists of various urban zones characterized by different morphology and functionality. The photovoltaic potential of buildings has been assessed using the PVGIS estimation utility. The analysis has shown a high photovoltaic potential that could cover about 2/3 of current electricity consumption in the city. However, this potential exhibits large spatial and temporal variations caused by global and local factors. This study has also shown that national assessments of photovoltaic potential can be improved by extrapolation of local assessments using spatial databases of urban areas.     

基于GIS的贡水流域水文信息分析系统设计与实现

流域水文数据是流域研究和管理的重要依据,合理组织和分析水文数据是实现流域科学管理、高效决策的关键。基于贡水流域水文系统的分析,在地理信息系统技术支持下采用Microsoft SQL Server和ArcSDE组织空间数据,选择Microsoft Visual Studio 2010作为开发平台、C#为主要开发语言,构建了贡水流域水文信息分析系统。该系统以直观可视化的方式管理水文信息,可用于解决水文信息空间分析中的问题,扩充了GIS在水文中的应用。     

An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects

In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage.In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks.The influences between the elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. Two different ANP models were used: one hierarchy model (that considers AHP as a particular case of ANP) and one network-based model. The results obtained in each model were compared and analyzed. The main conclusion is that unlike the other models used in the study, the single network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is the decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses of ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.     

Risk assessment of potential catastrophic accidents for transportation of special nuclear materials through Turkish Straits

Turkish Straits Region (TS) comprises of two straits, Dardanelles and Bosphorus, and the Marmara Sea. It is a historical marine trade route between the former Soviet countries and the western world. From the perspective of special nuclear materials transportation, this route can also be a nuclear materials trade route due to the nuclear policy of former Soviet countries and world nuclear market. In addition, TS can also be an optional route of integrated transportation ways for the shipping states that pursue to reach the destination points using the Black Sea countries or the North-Eastern Part of Turkey. Consequently maritime transportation of special nuclear materials has arisen as a critical concept for TS, where the risks should be understood and analyzed effectively. Accordingly, this study will aim at conducting a risk assessment for the TS from the special nuclear material transportations perspective via two hypothesized scenarios which are (i) ship collision accident in the case of special nuclear materials (SNM) Transportation through TS (ii) ship fire accident in the case of nuclear smuggling through TS with oil tanker. These scenarios are modelled and analyzed via RADTRAN 5 code and the results are presented in the paper.     

基于县域的黑龙江省山洪灾害风险区划

为分析黑龙江省的山洪灾害风险区划情况,基于GIS技术,利用研究区基础地理数据和该区域各地市/县统计资料,在深入分析研究山洪灾害成因与时空分布特征的基础上,对该区域各区县山洪灾害风险进行区划,得到各区县的风险等级,然后根据历史滑坡点和当地的实际情况对风险区划进行验证。结果表明,分析结果与实际情况吻合,可作为区域山洪防治工作的参考依据。     

Methodology based on Geographic Information Systems for biomass logistics and transport optimisation

The aim of this study is to contribute by outlining a procedure for achieving an optimal use of agricultural and forest residue biomass. In this regard, it develops and applies a methodology focused on logistics and transport strategies that can be used to locate a network of bioenergy plants around the region. This methodology was developed using a Geographic Information Systems and it provides information on the spatial distribution of biomass residues. This is accomplished by taking into consideration the amount of residue left within a rectangle with an area of 1 km², and making a regular grid overlap for the region under consideration. The centroid of each square will be evaluated and classified as “origin” (source of biomass collection) or “destination” (potential location of the bioenergy plant) depending on technical, economic, environmental and social constraints. The study focuses on mapping potential sites for tapping biomass energy and optimal locations for bioenergy plants. To identify and map optimal locations it is necessary to evaluate the time, distance and transport costs involved in the road transportation of biomass by means of a network analysis. The methodology was applied in the Valencian Community because the intense agricultural, agro-alimentary and timber activity in the region means there is a high potential for biomass.     

Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region,using MARKAL

Nobody can doubt today that hydrogen will, in the not-too-distant future, represent a very significant percentage of the total energy used by the transport sector. This study therefore consists of the modelling and simulation of energy consumption, by type of vehicle and fuel or energetic vector, in the road transport sector of the Madrid Region, during the period 2010–2050, using the MARKAL model. It has been necessary to complete this model by adding numerous specifications in order to determine the features of the Madrid Region, the richest Region in Spain. For the purpose of the study, three growth scenarios, based on short-term energy forecasts made by different official organizations, have been proposed for the energy consumption of the road transport sector in the Region. The results show a profound change in the current situation as there is a significant decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in that of alternative non-fossil fuels and hydrogen. The latter, in particular, will rise from 0.1% in the year 2010, to around 50% in the year 2050, which will mean a drastic drop in the sector's CO₂ and atmospheric pollutant emissions.     

基于Infoworks RS的新沭河溃堤洪水风险分析

为分析新沭河沿线堤防的溃堤洪水风险,基于Infoworks RS建立了新沭河片防洪保护区一、二维耦合水动力学模型,依据道路和堤防的实测高程更新地形数据,采用抽稀技术将道路和堤防节点均匀化、优化网格,提高了模型计算精度和效率。通过计算新沭河不同洪水量级和不同溃口位置的多种溃堤洪水方案,得到各类洪水的风险要素,并与空间地理关系进行叠加分析,统计得到不同洪水方案的洪灾损失。结果表明,新沭河溃堤洪水风险与溃口位置和洪水量级直接相关;新沭河中下游溃堤洪水风险明显高于上游;随着洪水量级增大,溃口流量增大,洪水影响程度增大。     

避洪转移中安置点分配及路径优选分析

为研究避洪转移中安置点分配及路径优选的分析方法,提出将多个可再分转移小组和多个安置点共同考虑的‘多对多’安置点分配及路径优选的新思路。该方法基于洪水风险图信息,结合ArcGIS路径分析,运用运筹学运输问题方法求解安置点分配及路径优选。实际分析表明该方法合理可行,可用于分配安置点和选择最佳路径。