Geo-referenced multimedia environmental fate model (G-CIEMS): model formulation and comparison to the generic model and monitoring approaches

A spatially resolved and geo-referenced dynamic multimedia environmental fate model, G-CIEMS (Grid-Catchment Integrated Environmental Modeling System) was developed on a geographical information system (GIS). The case study for Japan based on the air grid cells of 5 x 5 km resolution and catchments with an average area of 9.3 km2, which corresponds to about 40,000 air grid cells and 38,000 river segments/catchment polygons, were performed for dioxins, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and di-(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate. The averaged concentration of the model and monitoring output were within a factor of 2-3 for all the media. Outputs from G-CIEMS and the generic model were essentially comparable when identical parameters were employed, whereas the G-CIEMS model gave explicit information of distribution of chemicals in the environment. Exposure-weighted averaged concentrations (EWAC) in air were calculated to estimate the exposure ofthe population, based on the results of generic, G-CIEMS, and monitoring approaches. The G-CIEMS approach showed significantly better agreement with the monitoring-derived EWAC than the generic model approach. Implication for the use of a geo-referenced modeling approach in the risk assessment scheme is discussed as a generic-spatial approach, which can be used to provide more accurate exposure estimation with distribution information, using generally available data sources for a wide range of chemicals.     

Estimation of primary and secondary particulate matter intake fractions for power plants in Georgia

Air pollution benefit-cost analyses depend on dispersion models to predict population exposures to pollutants, but it is difficult to determine the reasonableness of the model estimates. This is in part because validation with field measurements is not feasible for marginal concentration changes and because few models can capture the necessary spatial and temporal domains with adequate sophistication. In this study, we use the concept of an intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant or its precursor emitted that is eventually inhaled) to provide insight about population exposures and model performance. We apply CALPUFF, a regional-scale dispersion model common in health benefits assessments, to seven power plants in northern Georgia, considering both direct emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and secondarily formed ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate particles over a domain within 500 km of Atlanta. We estimate emission-weighted average intake fractions of 6 x 10(-7) for primary PM2.5, 2 x 10(-7) for ammonium sulfate from SO2, and 6 x 10(-8) for ammonium nitrate from NOx, with no effect of SO2 on ammonium nitrate. To provide insight about model strengths and limitations, we compare our findings with those from a frequently applied source-receptor (S-R) matrix. Using S-R matrix over an identical domain, the corresponding intake fractions are 5 x 10(-7), 2 x 10(-7), 3 x 10(-8), and -2 x 10(-8), respectively, with the values approximately doubling if the domain is expanded to cover the continental United States. Evaluation of model assumptions and comparison of past intake fraction estimates using these two models illustrates the importance of assumptions about the relative concentrations of ammonia, sulfate, and nitrate, which significantly influences ammonium nitrate intake fractions. These findings provide a framework for improved understanding of the factors that influence population exposures to particulate matter.     

Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models

The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.     

The influence of vertical sorbed phase transport on the fate of organic chemicals in surface soils

Gaseous exchange between surface soil and the atmosphere is an important process in the environmental fate of many chemicals. It was hypothesized that this process is influenced by vertical transport of chemicals sorbed to soil particles. Vertical sorbed phase transport in surface soils occurs by many processes such as bioturbation, cryoturbation, and erosion into cracks formed by soil drying. The solution of the advection/diffusion equation proposed by Jury et al. to describe organic chemical fate in a uniformly contaminated surface soil was modified to include vertical sorbed phase transport This process was modeled using a sorbed phase diffusion coefficient, the value of which was derived from soil carbon mass balances in the literature. The effective diffusivity of the chemical in a typical soil was greater in the modified model than in the model without sorbed phase transport for compounds with log K(OW) > 2 and log K(OA) > 6. Within this chemical partitioning space, the rate of volatilization from the surface soil was larger in the modified model than in the original model by up to a factor of 65. The volatilization rate was insensitive to the value of the sorbed phase diffusion coefficient throughout much of this chemical partitioning space, indicating that the surface soil layer was essentially well-mixed and that the mass transfer coefficient was determined by diffusion through the atmospheric boundary layer only. When this process was included in a non-steady-state regional multimedia chemical fate model running with a generic emissions scenario to air, the predicted soil concentrations increased by upto a factor of 25,whilethe air concentrations decreased by as much as a factor of approximately 3. Vertical sorbed phase transport in the soil thus has a major impact on predicted air and soil concentrations, the state of equilibrium, and the direction and magnitude of the chemical flux between air and soil. It is a key process influencing the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs).     

Exposure assessment for estimation of the global burden of disease attributable to outdoor air pollution

Ambient air pollution is associated with numerous adverse health impacts. Previous assessments of global attributable disease burden have been limited to urban areas or by coarse spatial resolution of concentration estimates. Recent developments in remote sensing, global chemical-transport models, and improvements in coverage of surface measurements facilitate virtually complete spatially resolved global air pollutant concentration estimates. We combined these data to generate global estimates of long-term average ambient concentrations of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and ozone at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for 1990 and 2005. In 2005, 89% of the world's population lived in areas where the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m(3) PM(2.5) (annual average) was exceeded. Globally, 32% of the population lived in areas exceeding the WHO Level 1 Interim Target of 35 μg/m(3), driven by high proportions in East (76%) and South (26%) Asia. The highest seasonal ozone levels were found in North and Latin America, Europe, South and East Asia, and parts of Africa. Between 1990 and 2005 a 6% increase in global population-weighted PM(2.5) and a 1% decrease in global population-weighted ozone concentrations was apparent, highlighted by increased concentrations in East, South, and Southeast Asia and decreases in North America and Europe. Combined with spatially resolved population distributions, these estimates expand the evaluation of the global health burden associated with outdoor air pollution.     

Modeling the potential influence of particle deposition on the accumulation of organic contaminants by submerged aquatic vegetation

Submerged aquatic vegetation can act as both a mitigating factor(e.g., reducing downstream impacts of pesticides following runoff/spray drift) and mobilizing factor (e.g., remobilization of contaminants from sediments) influencing the fate and distribution of organic contaminants in the environment. Consequently, there has been wide scientific and regulatory interest in assessing the role of these plants in different contamination scenarios. Mechanistic models describing the environmental fate of contaminants in submerged aquatic vegetation are useful tools for interpreting laboratory and field measurements in addition to providing valuable information to risk assessors. In this study, we developed a fugacity-based model to investigate the influence of particle deposition to plant surfaces on the fate and distribution of two substances in small ponds. The main motivation for conducting this study was to address the fact that the potential contribution of this process is not typically considered by many types of models describing contaminant dynamics in submerged aquatic vegetation. For the hydrophobic substance included in this evaluation (lambda-cyhalothrin), model performance was greatly improved by including this process. The model was also applied in a generic context to compare the importance of particle deposition versus directwater uptake as a function of chemical properties (log Kow) and concentration of suspended solids in the water column. The generic application demonstrated that contaminant mass transfer is dominated by particle deposition for chemicals with log Kow greater than approximately 5.5--6 across a wide range of suspended solid concentrations and can be important even for low log Kow substances in some circumstances. Further empirical and modeling studies are recommended to explore this process more comprehensively.     

Merging models and biomonitoring data to characterize sources and pathways of human exposure to organophosphorus pesticides in the Salinas Valley of California

We characterize cumulative intakes of organophosphorus (OP) pesticides in an agricultural region of California by drawing on human biomonitoring data, California pesticide use reporting (PUR) data, and limited environmental samples together with outputs from the CalTOX multimedia, multipathway, source-to-dose model. The study population is the CHAMACOS cohort of almost 600 pregnant Latina women in the Salinas Valley region. We use model estimates of OP intake and urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) metabolite excretion to develop premises about relative contributions from different exposure sources and pathways. We evaluate these premises by comparing the magnitude and variation of DAPs in the CHAMACOS cohort with those of the whole U.S. population using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). This comparison supports the premise that diet is the common and dominant exposure pathway in both populations. Biomarker comparisons and model results support the observation that, relative to NHANES, the CHAMACOS population has a statistically significant (p < 0.001) added intake of OP pesticides with low inter-individual variability. We attribute the magnitude and small variance of this intake to residential nondietary exposures from local agricultural OP uses. These results show that mass-balance models can estimate exposures for OP pesticides within the range measured by biological monitoring.     

Are there other persistent organic pollutants? A challenge for environmental chemists

The past 5 years have seen some major successes in terms of global measurement and regulation of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PB&T) chemicals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The Stockholm Convention, a global agreement on POPs, came into force in 2004. There has been a major expansion of measurements and risk assessments of new chemical contaminants in the global environment, particularly brominated diphenyl ethers and perfluorinated alkyl acids. However, the list of chemicals measured represents only a small fraction of the approximately 30,000 chemicals widely used in commerce (>1 t/y). The vast majority of existing and new chemical substances in commerce are not monitored in environmental media. Assessment and screening of thousands of existing chemicals in commerce in the United States, Europe, and Canada have yielded lists of potentially persistent and bioaccumulative chemicals. Here we review recent screening and categorization studies of chemicals in commerce and address the question of whether there is now sufficient information to permit a broader array of chemicals to be determined in environmental matrices. For example, Environment Canada's recent categorization of the Domestic (existing) Substances list, using a wide array of quantitative structure activity relationships for PB&T characteristics, has identified about 5.5% of 11,317 substances as meeting P & B criteria. Using data from the Environment Canada categorization, we have listed, for discussion purposes, 30 chemicals with high predicted bioconcentration and low rate of biodegradation and 28 with long range atmospheric transport potential based on predicted atmospheric oxidation half-lives >2 days and log air-water partition coefficients > or =5 and < or =1. These chemicals are a diverse group including halogenated organics, cyclic siloxanes, and substituted aromatics. Some of these chemicals and their transformation products may be candidates for future environmental monitoring. However, to improve these predictions data on emissions from end use are needed to refine environmental fate predictions, and analytical methods may need to be developed.     

Screening level risk assessment model for chemical fate and effects in the environment

A screening level risk assessment model is developed and described to assess and prioritize chemicals by estimating environmental fate and transport, bioaccumulation, and exposure to humans and wildlife for a unit emission rate. The most sensitive risk endpoint is identified and a critical emission rate is then calculated as a result of that endpoint being reached. Finally, this estimated critical emission rate is compared with the estimated actual emission rate as a risk assessment factor. This "back-tracking" process avoids the use of highly uncertain emission rate data as model input. The application of the model is demonstrated in detail for three diverse chemicals and in less detail for a group of 70 chemicals drawn from the Canadian Domestic Substances List. The simple Level II and the more complex Level III fate calculations are used to "bin" substances into categories of similar probable risk. The essential role of the model is to synthesize information on chemical and environmental properties within a consistent mass balance framework to yield an overall estimate of screening level risk with respect to the defined endpoint. The approach may be useful to identify and prioritize those chemicals of commerce that are of greatest potential concern and require more comprehensive modeling and monitoring evaluations in actual regional environments and food webs.     

Assessing model uncertainty of bioaccumulation models by combining chemical space visualization with a process-based diagnostic approach

As models describing human exposure to organic chemicals gain wider use in chemical risk assessment and management, it becomes important to understand their uncertainty. Although evaluation of parameter sensitivity/uncertainty is increasingly common, model uncertainty is rarely assessed. When it is, the assessment is generally limited to a handful of chemicals. In this study, a strategy for more comprehensive model uncertainty assessment was developed. A regulatory model (EUSES) was compared with a research model based on more recent science. Predicted human intake was used as the model end point. Chemical space visualization techniques showed that the extent of disagreement between the models varied strongly with chemical partitioning properties. For each region of disagreement, the primary human exposure vector was determined. The differences between the models' process algorithms describing these exposure vectors were identified and evaluated. The equilibrium assumption for root crops in EUSES caused overestimations in daily intake of superhydrophobic chemicals (log K(OW) > 11, log K(OA) > 10), whereas EUSES's approach to calculating bioaccumulation in fish prey resulted in underestimations for hydrophobic compounds (log K(OW) ～ 6-8). Uptake of hydrophilic chemicals from soil and bioaccumulation of superhydrophobic chemicals in zooplankton were identified as important research areas to enable further reduction of model uncertainty in bioaccumulation models.     

On the reversibility of environmental contamination with persistent organic pollutants

An understanding of the factors that control the time trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment is required to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reductions and to predict future exposure. Using a regional contaminant fate model, CoZMo-POP 2, and a generic bell-shaped emission profile, we simulated time trends of hypothetical chemicals with a range of POP-like partitioning and degradation properties in different compartments of a generic warm temperate environment, with the objective of identifying the processes that may prevent the reversibility of environmental contamination with POPs after the end of primary emissions. Evaporation from soil and water can prevent complete reversibility of POP contamination of the atmosphere after the end of emissions. However, under the selected conditions, only for organic chemicals within a narrow range of volatility, that is, a logarithm of the octanol air equilibrium partition coefficient between 7 and 8, and with atmospheric degradation half-lives in excess of a few month can evaporation from environmental reservoirs sustain atmospheric levels that are within an order of magnitude of those resulting from primary emissions. HCB and α-HCH fulfill these criteria, which may explain, why their atmospheric concentrations have remained relatively high decades after their main primary emissions have been largely eliminated. Soil-to-water transfer is found responsible for the lack of reversibility of POP contamination of the aqueous environment after the end of emissions, whereas reversal of water-sediment exchange, although possible, is unlikely to contribute significantly. Differences in the reversibility of contamination in air and water suggests the possibility of changes in the relative importance of various exposure pathways after the end of primary emissions, namely an increase in the importance of the aquatic food chain relative to the agricultural one, especially if the former has a benthic component. Since simulated time trends were strongly dependent on degradation half-lives, partitioning properties and selected environmental input parameters, it should not be surprising, that different field studies often generate highly divergent time trends.     

Does simplifying transport and exposure yield reliable results? An analysis of four risk assessment methods

Four approaches for predicting the risk of chemicals to humans and fish under different scenarios were compared to investigate whether it is appropriate to simplify risk evaluations in situations where an individual is making environmentally conscious manufacturing decisions or interpreting toxics release inventory (TRI) data: (1) the relative risk method, that compares only a chemical's relative toxicity; (2) the toxicity persistence method, that considers a chemical's relative toxicity and persistence; (3) the partitioning, persistence toxicity method, that considers a chemical's equilibrium partitioning to air, land, water, and sediment, persistence in each medium, and its relative toxicity; and (4) the detailed chemical fate and toxicity method, that considers the chemical's relative toxicity, and realistic attenuation mechanisms such as advection, mass transfer and reaction in air, land, water, and sediment. In all four methods, the magnitude of the risk was estimated by comparing the risk of the chemical's release to that of a reference chemical. Three comparative scenarios were selected to evaluate the four approaches for making pollution prevention decisions: (1) evaluation of nine dry cleaning solvents, (2) evaluation of four reaction pathways to produce glycerine, and (3) comparison of risks for the chemical manufacturing and petroleum industry. In all three situations, it was concluded that ignoring or simplifying exposure calculations is not appropriate, except in cases where either the toxicity was very great or when comparing chemicals with similar fate. When the toxicity is low to moderate and comparable for chemicals, the chemicals' fate influences the results; therefore, we recommend using a detailed chemical fate and toxicity method because the fate of chemicals in the environment is assessed with consideration of more realistic attenuation mechanisms than the other three methods. In addition, our study shows that evaluating the risk associated with industrial release of chemicals (e.g., the toxics release inventory) may be misleading if only mass emissions are considered.     

Bioaccumulation potential of persistent organic chemicals in humans

A model was used to explore the influence of physicalchemical properties on the potential of organic chemicals to bioaccumulate in humans. ACC-HUMAN, a model of organic chemical bioaccumulation through the agricultural and aquatic food chains to humans, was linked to a level I unit world model of chemical fate in the physical environment and parametrized for conditions in southern Sweden. Hypothetical, fully persistent chemicals with varying physical-chemical properties were distributed in the environment, and their bioaccumulation to humans was calculated. The results were evaluated using the environmental bioaccumulation potential (EBAP), defined as the quotient of the chemical quantity in a human divided by the quantity of chemical in the whole environment. Since the latter is closely related to emissions, EBAP is potentially a more useful tool for comparative risk assessment of chemicals than currently used medium-specific measures such as the fish-water bioaccumulation factor. A high environmental bioaccumulation potential, defined as > 10% of the maximum EBAP, was found for chemicals with 2 < log KOW < 11 and 6 < log KOA < 12. While these chemical partitioning properties clearly influenced bioaccumulation at each trophic level, these effects tended to equalize over the food web. The fact that the transfer from the environment as a whole to humans was quite uniform over a large chemical partitioning space suggests that these partitioning properties are relatively unimportant determinants of human exposure compared to other factors such as the substance's persistence in the environment and in the food web.     

Illustrating sensitivity and uncertainty in environmental fate models using partitioning maps

Variations of model predictions of the environmental fate of organic contaminants are usually analyzed for only one or at most a few selected chemicals, even though parameter sensitivity and contribution to uncertainty are widely different for different chemicals. A graphical method is introduced that allows for the comprehensive investigation of model sensitivity and uncertainty for all persistent organic nonelectrolytes at the same time. This is achieved by defining a two-dimensional hypothetical "chemical space" as a function of the equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water, and octanol (KOW, KAW, KOA), and plotting sensitivity and/or uncertainty of a specific model result to each input parameter as a function of this chemical space. The approach is illustrated for the bulk phase concentrations in air, water, soil, and sediment calculated by a level III model. Colored contour maps facilitate the identification of those input parameters that cause a high output variation of hypothetical and real chemicals. They also allow for the easy categorization of chemicals in terms of common parameter sensitivities, and thus comparable environmental behavior. Sensitivity varies with the mode of emission and the degradability of the chemicals, making it necessary to develop multiple sets of contour maps. Comparison of these sets of maps in turn allows the investigation of how parameter sensitivities change as a result of changes in mode of emission and persistence. The presented method can be used for investigating the sensitivity of any prediction obtained with any linear fate model that characterizes the partitioning behavior of organic chemicals with KAW, KoW, and KOA. Once the sensitivity maps have been constructed for a given environmental scenario, it is possible to perform a sensitivity analysis for a specific chemical by simple. placement of the substances' partitioning combinations within the chemical space. The maps can further contribute to the mechanistic understanding of a model's behavior, can aid in explaining observations of divergent environmental behavior of related substances, and can provide a rationale for grouping chemicals with similar model behavior, or for selecting representative example chemicals for a model investigation. They can also help in deciding when accurate and precise knowledge of physical chemical property data is crucial and when approximate numbers suffice to conduct a model investigation.     

European-scale modeling of concentrations and distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the pentabromodiphenyl ether product

The results from a modeling exercise utilizing the European variant (EVn) BETR multimedia environmental fate model are presented for selected polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) of the technical penta- (Pe-) bromodiphenyl ether (BDE) product. The objectives of this study were to test PeBDE emission estimates from the literature for Europe by investigating the consistency between model predictions and ambient measurements to address the ability of the model to predict spatial variability and differences between congeners. Concurrently sampled and analyzed passive sampling air data, together with soil and grass data, were used as key model validation tools. The model steady-state simulations gave generally good agreement with measured data for BDE-47 and -99 with greater discrepancies for heavier congeners (e.g., BDE-153). To predict future atmospheric concentration trends, the model was used in its fully dynamic mode over the period 1970--2010. It was predicted that atmospheric concentrations peaked around 1997, declining with an overall "disappearance" half-life of 4.8 years. Soil and grass levels were underestimated by the model; possible reasons for differences with measurement data are further explored. Finally, the importance of temporally and spatially resolved environmental data sets is highlighted, while improved quantification of degradation half-lives is essential to better understand and predict the behavior of BDE congeners in PeBDE.     

Estimation of the dietary intake of chemicals in food

Methods for estimating the exposure of individuals to chemical substances present in the diet require information to be obtained about the patterns of food consumption in a community as well as the concentration of these chemicals in the diet. Methods of estimating food intakes using food diaries/weighed intake studies, dietary recall studies, food frequency and food disappearance methods are described. Their use, together with calculations derived from the data they provide are described to estimate normal and atypical food consumption patterns. The methods which have been used to estimate the exposure to existing chemicals in food are briefly reviewed and include total diet studies, selective studies on individual foods and duplicate portion studies. These methods are inappropriate for estimating the prospective intake of a chemical in food and the ways in which this issue may be approached, both nationally and internationally, are described with particular reference to the intakes of pesticide residues and food additives.     

Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: a case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil, and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that induce toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To demonstrate the use of fate models in ecological risk assessment, we combine the EQuilibrium Criterion (EQC) environmental fate model with a simple screening level biouptake model for three representative organisms: a bird, a mammal, and a fish. This effort yields estimates of internal body concentrations that can be compared with levels known to elicit toxic effects. As an illustration, we present an analysis of 24 hydrocarbon components of gasoline that differ in properties but are assumed to elicit toxicity by a common narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discussthe implications of these results and draw attention to the insights gained about regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is suitable for assessing single chemicals or mixtures that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.