Identifying low impact development strategies for flood mitigation using a fuzzy-probabilistic approach

Low impact development (LID) includes strategies and practices that are designed to control surface runoff at its sources in a sustainable way. The performance of these strategies has been frequently addressed through curve number approach. This approach however subjects to a great deal of uncertainties owing to uncertain nature of curve numbers and temporal/spatial variability of flood events. This paper represents a novel methodology to deal with both inherent flood uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties identifying optimal LID strategies for flood mitigation. The proposed methodology integrates a great variety of mathematical tools including copula functions, MCS method, hydrological and hydraulic models, NSGA-II algorithm as well as ANN and fuzzy set theory. The obtained results from a case study clearly demonstrate that the proposed methodology not only presents cost-effective measures, but also can simultaneously handle both inherent and epistemic uncertainties in flood risk management.     

基于机理模型的兰江洪水复盘分析

为提高洪水预报水位精度，结合水文和水动力模型，对钱塘江 2022 年“6·21”洪水计算过程进行复盘，分析洪水成因。收集降雨量、水位、流量等水文监测数据及水利工程调度信息，建立兰江流域半分布式水文和分段水动力模型，完成模型率定和验证。基于模型分析洪水成因，分析降雨时空变化、梯级水利枢纽调度、区间水库拦蓄对洪水过程的影响。结果表明：洪水主要由自北向南移动的强降雨形成，在水利枢纽调度影响下，洪水水位过程线由尖瘦型演变为头肩型，其中干流水利枢纽调度影响低水水位上涨和消落，上游水库调蓄可有效削减洪峰并推后峰现时间。通过洪水成因分析，在机理模型中加入水利工程调度影响，计算的洪水水位过程与实际更加吻合。     

Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set

This study aims to improve the general flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS based on α-cut level sets which can reduce the uncertainty inherent in even fuzzy multi-criteria decision making process. Since fuzzy TOPSIS leads to a crisp closeness for each alternative, it is frequently argued that fuzzy weights and fuzzy ratings should be in fuzzy relative closeness. Therefore, this study used a modified α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS to develop a spatial flood vulnerability approach for Han River in Korea, considering various uncertainties in weights derivation and crisp data aggregation. Two results from fuzzy TOPSIS and modified fuzzy TOPSIS were compared. Some regions which showed no or small ranking changes have their centro-symmetric distributions, while other regions whose rankings varied dynamically, have biased (anti-symmetric) distributions. It can be concluded that α-cut level set based fuzzy TOPSIS produce more robust prioritization since more uncertainties can be considered. This method can be applied to robust spatial vulnerability or decision making in water resources management.     

智慧水利在四川洪水预报和防洪调度中的应用

随着水利部大力推进智慧水利建设,智慧水利已成为全国水利行业发展的必然方向。为探索智慧水利在洪水预报和防洪调度中的应用成效,简要说明四川省水旱灾害防御形势和预报调度技术发展现状,以四川省智慧水利建设为切入点,系统介绍水旱灾害防御智慧水利总框架,从感知层、支撑层、应用层对四川省洪水预报和防洪调度工作中的水文要素感知,信息存储传输,值班管理,实时水雨情监测,防汛形势分析,预报调度,水文应急分析,水情服务等关键环节进行详细阐述。以智慧水利在四川省 2020 年流域性特大暴雨洪水过程为例,通过分析洪水作业预报精度和流域水库群调度削峰滞洪成效,以及对比近年来防汛减灾经济效益增长情况等方式,说明智慧水利建设能够大幅提升水文监测自动化、预警预报实时化、预报调度一体化、分析评价智能化水平,带来更大的防汛减灾效益。     

吉林省水文监测及洪水预报综合服务平台建设工程系统研发

摘要：本文通过对吉林省水文监测及洪水预报综合服务平台应用系统研发的介绍,为吉林省水文监测及洪水预警水平,提高水文信息化及现代化程度,整合各部门现有分散孤立的信息资源到统一的综合信息平台上,从而提高信息共享程度。同时对地下水监测、水环境监测、水资源管理、站网管理等方面积极开展相关平台应用软件开发,实现站点的管理信息的数字化、可视化等要求,具备水文应急测报信息支持功能。在发生突发性公共水事件时,迅速提供事件所在地的江河流域监测数据信息,为开展应急测报提供服务,全面提升水文行业的服务能力。     

An object-oriented application framework for building water resource information and planning tools applied to the design of a flood analysis system

An object-oriented framework for building computer based modelling tools for water resource planning is presented. The focus is on building a program for flood calculations in river systems with several reservoirs and water transfer structures. The foundation for the flood model is a general application framework for building hydrological modelling tools. The general framework provides the user with tools for describing the structural components of the hydrological system, their relation in the system topology and controlling the behaviour of the system during simulation. Hydrological models are often data intensive, and the framework is equipped with tools to handle both time series and spatially-distributed data efficiently. During the development, effort has been put into supporting future changes and extensions to the model system, as well as creating sound reusable components that will benefit future development and maintenance. A flood modelling application in the Norwegian river Gudbrandsdalslågen is described to illustrate the use of the toolkit.     

Development of optimal water supply plan using integrated fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods—Case study of the Gamasiab basin

This paper presents a novel method for the development of an optimal water supply plan showcased using data from the Gamasiab basin, located in Kermanshah province, Iran, concerning new dams that are being constructed in this semi-arid region. In this paper, a new group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) plan is proposed by combining two MCDM methods based on the fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods that convert the experts' opinions to triangular fuzzy numbers based on the level of uncertainty associated with various quantitative and qualitative criteria. Considering the opinions of four non-stakeholder experts and data analysis using the fuzzy Delphi method, the criteria were evaluated. Then, by analysing the results using the fuzzy ELECTRE III method, the final ranking of scenarios is obtained. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the decision-making system in scenarios ranking. The total expense, flood control, reservoir capacity and diversion and water transfer played a significant role in selecting the optimal scenario. Additionally, a hydrologic model was developed to evaluate the performance of the optimal scenario in terms of qualitative criteria. The data indicated that there was a good agreement between the results obtained from the hydrological model and the scenario ranking by the employed method. Altogether, a comparison of the proposed method with other MCDM methods, including fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by simulation of ideal solution, indicated that the results of the employed method matched more closely to the local experts' opinion.     

Grid Technology Reliability for Flash Flood Forecasting: End-user Assessment

The flash flood forecasting is one of the most important challenges for research in hydrology. The anticipation of extreme hydrological scenarios through rainfall–runoff models is still limited, mainly because of the high uncertainty of rainfall forecasts, as of limited computing resources. The authors propose to simulate an ensemble of potential hydrological scenarios in order to support the forecaster’s decision-making process. The developed applicative layer takes advantage of the computing capabilities of Grid technology, significantly enhancing the management of independent modelling operations in an operational lead time. A set of experimentations is deployed in order to firstly assess efficiency of this applicative layer and secondly to gauge more broadly the potentialities of Grid to handle flood crisis management operations. Finally, in managing more than one hundred hydrological simulations simultaneously, this experimental platform opens new perspectives for the improvement of hydrological forecast modelling, limited up to now by the lack of computing resources.     

水文情报信息网络系统的安全策略和措施

水文情报信息是防汛防旱减灾、水资源管理、水土保持、水环境保护等工作的重要依据,水文情报信息网络管理系统是水文信息采集、通信、存储、服务的技术支撑平台,本文通过对水文情报信息流程的详细调查和水文情报信息网络系统管理工作的需求分析,探讨在水文情报信息网络系统建设管理、运行维护中安全问题的应对策略和防范措施。     

区县涉水项目审批平台水文复核数字助手研发

针对区县涉水项目审批水文复核计算传统方式短板制约日渐突出的问题，以杭州市临安区涉水项目审批平台为试点，设计并开发区县级涉水项目审批数字助手。针对地区特点进行计算方法提炼和参数取值，系统化地集成区域内碎片化存在的水文复核计算内容，构建设计暴雨、设计洪水、水库调洪演算、设计水位、建筑物超高、涉河桥梁分析共6个水文复核计算模型工具，以规范化的流程辅助审批人员进行快速复核计算。各模块采用微服务架构进行组合集成，通过人性化界面进行复核操作引导，设置关键参数的取值调整和结果展示、报告生成功能，实现审批复核的全程留痕，助力解决复核计算效率不佳、设计成果准确性难评判的问题，为当地行政主管部门进行涉水工程防洪安全审批提供专业化、智能化的应用支撑。     

一种基于DTW聚类的水文时间序列相似性挖掘方法

水文时间序列相似性挖掘是水文时间序列挖掘的重要方面,对洪水预报、防洪调度等具有重要意义。针对水文数据的特点,提出了一种基于DTW聚类的水文时间序列相似性挖掘方法。该方法先对数据进行小波去噪、特征点分段以及语义划分,再基于DTW距离对划分后的子序列做层次聚类并符号化;然后根据符号序列间的编辑距离筛选候选集;最后通过序列间的DTW距离进行精确匹配,获取相似水文时间序列。以滁河六合站的日水位数据进行实验,结果表明,所提方法能够有效地缩小候选集,提高查找语义相似的水文时间序列的效率。     

神经网络在洪水预测中的应用研究

对基于神经网络的洪水序列预测方法进行了研究.将动态学习率、惯性冲量方法改进的神经网络模型用于水文时间序列洪水预报中,提出以确定性系数最大为评价标准的参数优选方法.经两个洪水序列的实例研究结果表明,神经网络对于变化平缓的洪水序列,预报效果很好,对于彼动剧烈的复杂水文序列,洪水预报效果不如前者.     

基于物联网和GCNN-LSTM的河流水文预测方法

针对河流水文存在预测精度不高的问题,利用物联网技术设计了分布式的降雨和水文信息自动采集系统,并提出了一种基于图卷积神经网络和长短期记忆网络模型对河流水位和径流量进行预测的方法。首先通过分析确定了影响河流水文的主要因素,将流域范围内的降雨量信息组成网格化的二维图形矩阵。然后提出了GCNN-LSTM预测模型,将含有降雨信息的二维图形矩阵作为网络模型的输入,获取该流域内降雨与水文变化的时空分布特征。最后采用所提出的GCNN-LSTM预测模型对河南省周口市段颍河的历史水文数据进行训练,再利用训练后的网络对测试集数据进行预测,得到了较高精度的径流量和水位结果,径流量预测结果的RMSE、MAPE和MAE分别仅为17.09m3/s、1.68%和8.57m3/s,水位预测结果的RMSE、MAPE和MAE分别仅为0.32m、0.65%和0.29m,与其他几种预测方法相比表现出了优越性,对科学合理利用水资源和防洪减灾具有重要意义。     

移动雷达波测流系统在松柏水文站的运用

针对松柏水文站在发生暴雨洪水时河流陡涨陡落,高洪时漂浮物多,采用流速仪或ADCP测流不安全的问题,应用移动雷达波测流系统进行流量测验。在分析测流系统组成、工作原理、管理软件的基础上,按照不同水位级布置测次,采用同期测流系统施测流量与转子式流速仪人工实测流量进行比测,建立2种流量相关关系,率定测流系统流量系数,并进行误差分析评判,验证移动雷达波测流系统测流精度。比测率定结果表明:两者相关关系良好,移动雷达波测流系统测得的水面流速经率定后,推算的断面流量精度较高,满足水文资料整编精度及水资源管理要求,可提高水文资料时效性和准确性,解决山溪性河流流量测验安全问题。     

北斗卫星通信在超标准洪水监测中的应用分析

为研究北斗卫星在超标准洪水等特殊恶劣自然环境情况下的水文数据通信情况,以2020年7月8日昌江流域超标准洪水监测中北斗卫星通信的实际应用为实例,对荷塘水文站点的北斗卫星与GPRS 2种通信信道在不同降雨级别情况下收发的雨水情数据进行对比分析,统计水文遥测数据时效性和畅通率,计算数据准确性,分析北斗卫星通信雨衰情况.经过...     

滨江复杂河网地区水环境调控仿真模拟系统研究

为满足滨江河网地区人民群众对河流防洪安全、水环境、水生态、水景观等要求,达到水资源调用效益最优化,基于自主研发的GIS平台,实现滨江复杂河网地区水文、水动力及水质模型的耦合,集构模、连库、计算、调试和展示等为一体.通过Web Services接口设定调度预案及预报期边界条件,驱动预报调度模型进行计算,并直接获取预报调度...     

海河流域水文预报系统软件开发

基于计算机图形技术和数据库技术，开发了一套海河流域水文预报软件系统。该系统采用客户／服务器体系结构，基础数据来源于系统远程服务器数据库，具有雨水情分析处理，洪水，水文预报信息查询，地理分布式信息查询（电子地图查询），图形显示与打印，帮助等功能，可以及时，准确地进行海河流域水文预报和信息查询，也可以图形显示分析，预测结果，用户界面友好，使用方便。     

Data‐driven model for river flood forecasting based on a Bayesian network approach

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological models often requires a large number of model runs, which can be time consuming and computationally intensive. In order to reduce the number of runs required for uncertainty prediction, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to graphically represent conditional probability dependence between the set of variables characterizing a flood event. Bayesian networks (BNs) are relevant due to their capacity to handle uncertainty, combine statistical data and expertise and introduce evidences in real‐time flood forecasting. In the present study, a runoff–runoff model is considered. The discharge at a gauging station located is estimated at the outlet of a basin catchment based on discharge measurements at the gauging stations upstream. The BN model shows good performances in estimating the discharges at the basin outlet. Another application of the BN model is to be used as a reverse method. Knowing discharges values at the outlet of the basin, we can propagate back these values through the model to estimate discharges at upstream stations. This turns out to be a practical method to fill the missing data in streamflow records which are critical to the sustainable management of water and the development of hydrological models.     

Modeling climate change uncertainties in water resources management models

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydrosystems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker’s preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This short paper discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of hydrosystems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of a soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker’s preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.     

基于LM-BP神经网络的莺落峡河段糙率推测分析

分析天然河道糙率值的主要影响因素,基于LM-BP神经网络预测模型,提出黑河莺落峡水文站测验河段糙率值的推求方法.对网络模型的设计、训练、测试进行研究和分析,预测模型输入量为水位Z、水力半径R及水面比降S,输出量为糙率n,样本集为黑河莺落峡水文站测验河段的历史实测糙率值.根据测试结果可以得出:在误差允许范围内,采用LM-...