全国电力现货市场试运行分析与新能源发电企业的应对建议

2017年8月28日,国家发展和改革委员会、国家能源局联合发布了《关于开展电力现货市场建设试点工作的通知》,并选择8个地区作为电力现货市场第1批试点市场;截至2019年9月,我国首批电力现货市场全部完成结算试运行.在对全国首批电力现货市场的模拟试运行和结算试运行情况展开全面调研的基础上,分析了电力现货市场对新能源发电企...     

考虑调峰附加成本的新能源送出型电网电价动态优化模型

针对现货市场交易机制下新能源送出型电网风电不确定性对电网调峰附加成本影响,提出考虑调峰附加成本的电网电价动态优化模型,为火电、储能和电热联合需求响应等调峰资源参与电网调峰提供灵活的电价信号,保障现货交易市场出清价格的准确性,同时提高各电力主体对新能源的消纳能力和系统碳减排能力。首先,以新能源送出型电网为基础,研究考虑风电不确定性的电网调峰需求量化方法,并建立火电、储能和电热联合需求响应等调峰资源的调峰附加成本模型;其次,研究现货市场中各电力主体的竞价策略,考虑调峰附加成本交易机制,建立以最小化运行成本为目标的现货市场出清模型,并采用合作博弈算法对模型进行求解,计算新能源送出型电网各主体出清价格;最后,以东北某新能源送出型电网实际运行数据为例进行仿真验证,结果表明所提出的考虑调峰附加成本的电网价格动态优化模型能有效提升电网对新能源的消纳能力,保障电力现货市场的高效稳定运行。     

新型电力系统中促进新能源消纳的电力现货市场交易机制研究

为解决现货市场建设中新能源参与市场化交易与保证性消纳难以统筹兼顾的问题,提出改进的现货市场交易机制。改进机制中新能源与火电机组同等参与市场竞价,在产生弃电时启动发电替代机制,由报价较高的火电机组出让发电空间给弃电新能源。通过对节点电价出清机制下的替代实施方案进行分析,设计价格结算机制对参与替代的火电机组予以补偿,使替代双方权益均得以保障。通过算例分析,验证了设计机制的有效性。     

提升新能源发电企业省间电力现货交易价值的研究

本文基于省间电力现货规则,分析了在省内现货市场模式、省内中长期市场模式下的新能源发电企业,参与省间电力现货的可获得的增量交易价值收益。本文给出了省间电力现货电价和省内现货电价预测方法,作者开发了“天机”电力交易辅助决策系统的省间现货交易模块,给出了省间电力现货收益提升判断算法流程和省间电力现货交易收益结果。     

日本电力现货市场运行现状及对中国的启示

日本新一轮电力体制改革启动以后,现货市场的交易量大幅提升,市场结构也逐渐完善,对中国电力现货市场建设有较大的借鉴意义.深入分析日本电力现货市场的结构和运行规律,包括日前市场、日内市场和平衡机制.对改革后市场主体、市场价格、交易量等进行逐年变化趋势分析.总结改革过程中出现的问题和日本的解决方式,最后提出对中国电力市场建设...     

基于Vine-Copula和拟蒙特卡罗法的可再生能源电力现货市场风险度量模型

可再生能源参与电力现货市场政策制定前,需度量可再生能源的市场风险。在可再生能源未深度参与电力现货背景下,直接采用传统方法对历史数据进行风险度量不可行。文章结合可再生能源有效出力和在险模型(Value at Risk,VaR)设计了可再生能源风险度量指标,通过风险场景匹配市场和机组出力数据。针对目前国内电力现货市场数据量少的问题,结合市场主体在电力现货市场中所能获得的数据进行市场因子筛选,通过Vine-Copula函数考虑多个市场因子间的相关性;改进了传统蒙特卡罗法收敛慢的缺陷,采用拟蒙特卡罗模拟法生成市场因子数据,根据拟合的映射关系生成电价水平数据。最后,文章基于南方(以广东起步)电力现货市场结算试运行的数据和海上风电与光伏的仿真出力,对所提出的模型进行算例分析,结果显示拟蒙特卡罗法收敛性更高,能满足模型中所有风险场景高频计算风险的需求。     

计及负荷分类及其需求响应的电力现货市场研究

在逐渐深入推进电力现货市场的环境下,提出一种考虑负荷分类及其需求响应的电力现货市场优化调度模型,该模型融入负荷需求响应并以节点电价作为价格传导机制来优化次日各节点负荷曲线,提升电力系统运行效益.并将社会生产机会成本的概念引入负荷侧,综合优化各节点的购电成本与社会生产机会成本.以IEEE39节点系统为算例进行仿真,验证了...     

欧盟储能政策和市场规则及对我国的启示北大核心CSCD

作为构建新型电力系统的关键技术支撑,储能的发展离不开政策环境的支持。欧盟作为电力市场化改革的先行者,在建立统一、充分竞争的电力市场过程中积累了丰富的经验,目前已经形成了成熟的电力现货市场交易体系与电力平衡机制,为储能构建商业模式提供了有利条件。同时欧盟也不断在顶层政策和电力市场规则上做出修改,旨在推动储能的规模化发展,为储能在更大范围内参与电力市场创造有利条件,值得我国借鉴。本文首先梳理了欧盟储能发展的现状,并从欧盟委员会和成员国两个角度,介绍了欧盟在储能研发资金支持、补贴政策上的主要举措;随后重点对欧盟在储能参与市场的主体身份、市场交易机制、市场开放等方面所做出的规则调整进行了详细分析。最后总结了欧盟的储能发展经验对我国的启示。     

两部委鼓励储能设施等第三方参与辅助服务市场

<正>近日,国家发改委、国家能源局日前联合印发了《关于深化电力现货市场建设试点工作的意见》(发改办能源规[2019]828号,以下简称《意见》),《意见》明确表示鼓励储能设施等第三方参与辅助服务市场。《意见》称,为统筹协调电力现货市场衔接机制,将统筹     

电力现货市场下储能系统经济效益研究

储能在解决可再生能源发电不稳定性、间歇性问题上具有提高电网输配容量和控制电频波动的作用。合理的经济效益收益模式是储能发展的关键,为明确当前电力现货市场环境下储能系统的合理经济收益模式及主要影响因素,挖掘我国储能市场潜力,通过优劣势(strengths weakness opportunity threats, SWOT)分析模型分析其内外部环境。在此基础上,基于储能参与辅助服务市场和电力现货市场交易的特性分析,采用内部收益率(internal rate of return, IRR)模型,以江苏省某储能系统为例,研究在电力现货市场下储能系统经济效益量化的问题。以经济效益最大为目标构建模型并利用线性规划进行求解,在多个情景下验证电力现货市场下储能系统的经济效益。最后,从技术和经济2个不同角度,通过案例研究影响当前储能系统经济性的最主要因素,算例结果表明：基于技术角度,充放电循环次数是主要影响因素;基于政策定价角度,峰谷价差水平是主要影响因素。随着我国储能系统投资成本及技术水平的进步,在电力现货市场全面放开的背景下,储能系统将具有越来越强的经济效益。     

促进可再生能源市场化的省内中长期运行策略研究

针对可再生能源市场化进程的加快,结合中国电力市场建设现状,对促进可再生能源市场化消纳的省级中长期交易机制以及与现货市场的衔接问题进行研究。利用资源分布特点,提出以可再生能源消纳及常规机组合约完成进度偏差为目标的电量分解模型,针对可再生能源的不确定性,提出基于多场景集的ANFIS预测技术进行可再生能源中长期电量预测,以此为基础进行电量分解,提升可再生能源利用率;建立计及中长期合约分解电量及可再生能源出力不确定性的日前市场出清策略,保证中长期合约电量的物理执行,实现与现货市场的有序衔接。最后通过算例分析验证所提模型的有效性和实用性。     

A regulatory policy to promote renewable energy consumption in China: Review and future evolutionary path

Renewable energy has become the world's strategic choice to solve environmental pollution, address the energy crisis and achieve social sustainable development. The establishment of a regulatory system coincides with the development stage of renewable energy and electricity market operation is significant in standardizing the market competition and guaranteeing healthy development of renewable energy in China. This paper analyses the current situation of renewable energy development and the existing renewable energy regulation system in China, pointing out that the main problems restricting renewable energy development are institutional mechanisms and market factors. The existing regulatory mechanisms also have deficiencies, such as the inclination towards economic regulation and the lack of a market adjustment mechanism. This paper proposes that China should comprehensively consider the renewable energy development stage, electricity market trading mechanisms and other factors in electricity regulatory requirements when policy making, actively exploring a new renewable energy regulation model adapted to different development phases. In addition, this paper suggests China's regulatory policy path based on the forecasting of renewable energy developing models.     

Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?

Though the development of renewable energy is rapid, innovation in renewable energy technologies is relatively weak due to the late commencement of renewable energy in China. In addition, renewable energy is mainly introduced into the supply mix of electricity generation, which increases the costs of electricity generation. Higher electricity price will make renewable energy more competitive and call forth renewable energy technological innovation. Based on FMOLS and DOLS models, as well as PMG model, this paper investigates the induced long and short run effects of electricity price, funding support, and economic growth on innovation in renewable energy technologies at the provincial level in China during the period 2006–2016. The Conclusions drawn were: (1) R&D expenditure and economic growth have positive impacts on innovation in renewable energy technologies in the long and short run; (2) Electricity price only has a long run effect on patenting in renewable energy technologies; (3) In the long run, a 1% increase in electricity price can lead to a 0.7825%–1.0952% increase in the patent counts of renewable energy technologies; (4) Electricity pricing system in China does not play any role in driving renewable energy technological innovation in the short run.     

可再生能源绿证价格季节性测算方法研究

  目的  在市场化交易模式消纳可再生能源发电的发展趋势下,“市场电价+绿证收入”将成为未来可再生能源发电企业的主要经营模式。以可再生能源发电参与现货电能量市场为研究大背景,对可再生能源绿色电力证书的价格进行研究。  方法  基于现货电能量市场的优化出清模型,应用可再生能源全生命周期成本测算理论,以满足可再生能源发电企业的内部收益为目的,建立了绿证-电能量市场耦合的优化模型,并结合可再生能源季节性出力特性,提出了可再生能源绿证价格季节性曲线及其波动区间的仿真和测算方法。  结果  不同类型的可再生能源绿证价格不同,不同类型的可再生能源绿证价格的气候相关性亦不相同。  结论  绿证价格的科学合理测算不仅可以帮助可再生能源发电企业进行收益评估和制定更为准确的投资决策,还为电力市场主体与交易中心提供相关决策支持。     

基于可再生能源经济调度时序模拟的绿色证书市场交易研究

梳理可再生能源发电商、常规能源发电商与售电公司等交易主体之间的电力、绿色证书供需关系,以各发电商的利益最大化为目标,建立考虑绿色证书的能源经济调度模型,求解消纳保障机制下发电商电力调度及证书交易策略;通过算例分析说明了绿色证书机制提高可再生能源发电商收益的有效性,消纳责任权重对于绿证价格变化、市场力抑制等市场良性运营具...     

考虑可再生能源消纳与灵活性需求的电力市场优化决策研究

可再生能源配额制与电力市场改革同步推进,电力系统灵活性需求急剧增加.为促进可再生能源的消纳,提高电力系统的灵活性,本文提出了一种电力市场双层优化决策模型.先是考虑风光负荷之间的相关性,建立了灵活性需求的概率模型;进而建立多市场主体下考虑省间-省内可再生能源和常规能源交易的双层优化模型;最后利用KKT条件和拉格朗日对偶理...     

考虑内部多地区间交互协作的复杂省级电力市场交易优化决策

为实现电力市场大范围资源优化配置,提出了一种考虑内部多地区间交互协作的省级电力市场交易优化决策方法.首先介绍了市场交易架构和机制,同时以全省社会福利和跨地区交易电量最大化为出清目标,其中社会福利计及了线路的输配电成本.然后,优化决策中考虑了全省各地区内部的电网安全约束、供热机组运行约束和交易决策约束等多约束条件,并对地...     

Long-term cross-border electricity trading model under the background of Global Energy Interconnection

Environmental problems caused by traditional power production and the unbalanced distribution of energy resources and demand limit the development of sustainable societies. A feasible method to optimize the resource allocation has been proposed, and it involves cross-border and cross-regional electricity transactions. However, the uncertainty of renewable energy and the specific features of the cross-border electricity market are key issues which need to be considered in the trading mechanism design. Based on this, this paper sets up a long-term cross-border electricity trading model considering the uncertainty of renewable energy. First, annual transactions are matched according to the declared data of bidders with consideration of cross-border interconnection development benefits, potential benefit risks, and transmission costs. Second, for annual contract decomposition, the model uses the minimum generation cost function with a penalty item for power shortages to allocate electricity to each month. Additionally, the scenario reduction algorithm is combined with the unit commitment to construct a stochastic generation plan. Finally, a case study of the numerical results for the multinational electricity market in northeast Asia is used to show that the proposed trading model is feasible for cross-border electricity trading with high penetration of renewable energy.     

高比例可再生能源环境下考虑绩效的发电出清模式研究

在可再生能源渗透率日益提高的背景下,为了促进优质灵活调节电源在市场环境下的发展,以电力市场的运行特征和实际发展需求为依据,综合考虑机组调节性能和调节效果,提出基于AHP的主能量市场绩效评价体系,兼顾灵活性和经济性的要求,设计差异化的主能量市场出清机制,并以系统运行成本最小化为目标,构建基于绩效的主能量市场与备用市场联合优化出清模型,通过与传统出清模式的对比分析,来验证该发电出清模式的有效性,最后分析可再生能源占比对运行结果的影响。算例结果表明,新的市场机制能综合考虑性能与成本进行电力市场出清,起到了有效进行资源优化配置、引导灵活性电源投资的作用。     

Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) technologies can be used for load levelling in the electricity supply and are therefore often considered for future energy systems with a high share of fluctuating renewable energy sources, such as e.g. wind power. In such systems, CAES plants will often operate on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that, in practice, a CAES plant can be expected to earn 80-90 per cent of the optimal earnings.