Developing a group decision support system based on fuzzy information axiom

Information axiom, one of two axioms of axiomatic design methodology which is proposed to improve a design, is used to select the best design among proposed designs. In the literature, there are a lot of studies related to using of information axiom for the solution of decision making problems. Moreover, applications of information axiom have been increasing day by day. However, calculation procedure of information axiom is not only incommodious but also difficult for decision makers. In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) based on fuzzy information axiom (FIA) is developed in order to make this decision procedure easy. The developed system consists of a knowledge base module including facts and rules, inference engine module including FIA and aggregation method, and a user interface module including entrance windows. The main aim of this study is to present a DSS tool to help the decision makers to solve their decision problems by modifying data-base of the program. In this paper, an application procedure will be presented based on the optimal selection of location for emergency service to illustrate the implementation procedure of the proposed model.     

A fuzzy assessment framework to select among transportation investment projects in Turkey

Selecting the best transportation investment project (TIP) is often a difficult task, since many social, environmental and economic criteria have to be considered simultaneously. Evaluating a set of different projects, especially the best set of alternatives, portfolios, is even more complex. Pursuing the goal of selecting the best TIP portfolio, we propose a fuzzy assessment method to aid the selection process of a multi-criterion project by utilizing the concept of entropy and interval normalization procedure in a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP). Then, regarding this informative phase, we propose a fuzzy linear programming model to select the best TIP portfolio under uncertain cost pressure. A real case study is conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.     

Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects

Global competition of markets has forced firms to invest in targeted R&D projects so that resources can be focused on successful outcomes. A number of options are encountered to select the most appropriate projects in an R&D project portfolio selection problem. The selection is complicated by many factors, such as uncertainty, interdependences between projects, risk and long lead time, that are difficult to measure. Our main concern is how to deal with the uncertainty and interdependences in project portfolio selection when evaluating or estimating future cash flows. This paper presents a fuzzy multi-objective programming approach to facilitate decision making in the selection of R&D projects. Here, we present a fuzzy tri-objective R&D portfolio selection problem which maximizes the outcome and minimizes the cost and risk involved in the problem under the constraints on resources, budget, interdependences, outcome, projects occurring only once, and discuss how our methodology can be used to make decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment. A case study is provided to illustrate the proposed method where the solution is done by genetic algorithm (GA) as well as by multiple objective genetic algorithm (MOGA).     

Using fuzzy decision making system to improve quality-based investment

In this paper, fuzzy set theory is used to select the quality-based investment in small firm. Here a new algorithm, which will consider both exogenous and endogenous variables as factors, is proposed to formulate the problem. The structure of the algorithm is based on fuzzy decision-making system (FDMS), which uses fuzzy control rules. Hence, one exogenous factor and five endogenous factors mentioned above are determined as input variables and fuzzified using membership function concept. Then, the weights of these factors are fuzzified to ensure the consistency of the decision maker when assigning the importance of one factor over another. Applying IF-THEN decision rules, quality-based investments are scored. Also the comparison with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Linguistic Approach (FLA) in respect to these scores is presented.     

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization model with bankruptcy control and affine recourse

Avoiding the possibility of bankruptcy during the investment horizon is very important to multi-period portfolio management. This paper considers a multi-period fuzzy portfolio selection problem with bankruptcy control. A multi-period portfolio optimization model imposed by a bankruptcy control constraint in fuzzy environment is proposed on the basis of credibility theory. In the proposed model, a linearly recourse policy is used to reflect the influence of historical predication basis on current portfolio decision. Three optimization objectives, viz., maximizing the terminal wealth and minimizing the cumulative risk and the cumulative uncertainty of the returns of portfolios over the whole investment horizon, are taken into consideration. For solving the proposed model, a fuzzy programming approach is applied to transform it into a single objective programming model. Then, a hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed for solution. Finally, an empirical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model and solution comparisons are also given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the designed algorithm.     

Evaluating methods of investment project and optimizing models of portfolio selection in fuzzy uncertainty

This paper deals with the problems of both project valuation and portfolio selection under the assumption that the investment capitals and the net cash flows of the projects are fuzzy variables. Using the credibilistic expected value and the credibilistic lower semivariance of fuzzy variables, this paper proposes both the credibilistic return index and the credibilistic risk index, which are measures of investment return and investment risk with annuity form for evaluating single project. Moreover, a composite risk-return index for selecting the optimal investment strategy is also presented. Then, we set up a general project portfolio optimization model with fuzzy returns and two specific models: triangle and interval fuzzy returns. Furthermore, we provide two algorithms: the improved heuristic rules based on genetic algorithm and the traversal algorithm. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency and the effectiveness of these proposed optimization methods.     

A hybrid fuzzy group decision support framework for advanced-technology prioritization at NASA

The prioritization of advanced-technology projects at the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) is a difficult task. This difficulty is due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives in addition to the inherent technical complexities and valuation uncertainties involved in the assessment process. As such, a systematic and transparent decision support framework is needed to guide the assessment process, shape the decision outcomes and enable confident choices to be made. Methods for solving Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems have been widely used to select a finite number of alternatives generally characterized by multiple conflicting criteria. However, applying these methods is becoming increasingly difficult for technology assessment in the space industry because there are many emerging risks for which information is not available and decisions are made under significant uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a hybrid fuzzy group decision support framework for technology assessment at NASA. The proposed objective framework is comprised of two modules. In the first module, the complicated structure of the assessment criteria and alternatives are represented and evaluated with the Analytic Network Process (ANP). In the second module, the alternative advanced-technology projects are ranked using a customized fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework through a case study at the Kennedy Space Center.     

基于战略对应的IT项目组合选择模型

把信息技术项目当作组合来管理可以通过平衡风险和收益来促进企业目标和IT应用的结合,但由于决策信息的不确定性和IT项目目标与企业战略的难以对应,企业面临IT项目组合选择的挑战。构建基于战略对应的IT项目组合选择模型,其中模糊集和模糊层次分析法用来刻画不确定信息和评估IT项目风险、成本及收益,关键成功因素法用来提高IT项目与企业战略的对应,并建立模糊0－1整数规划。利用定性可能性理论把模糊组合选择模型转化为一般可求解的整数规划形式,最后用一个案例说明模型的用法。     

A fuzzy group data envelopment analysis model for high-technology project selection: A case study at NASA

The assessment and selection of high-technology projects is a difficult decision making process at the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA). This difficulty is due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives in addition to the inherent technical complexities and valuation uncertainties involved in the assessment process. As such, a systematic and transparent decision making process is needed to guide the assessment process, shape the decision outcomes and enable confident choices to be made. Various methods have been proposed to assess and select high-technology projects. However, applying these methods has become increasingly difficult in the space industry because there are many emerging risks implying that decisions are subject to significant uncertainty. The source of uncertainty can be vagueness or ambiguity. While vague data are uncertain because they lack detail or precision, ambiguous data are uncertain because they are subject to multiple interpretations. We propose a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with ambiguity and vagueness. The vagueness of the objective functions is modeled by means of multi-objective fuzzy linear programming. The ambiguity of the input and output data is modeled with fuzzy sets and a new α-cut based method. The proposed models are linear, independent of α-cut variables, and capable of maximizing the satisfaction level of the fuzzy objectives and efficiency scores, simultaneously. Moreover, these models are capable of generating a common set of multipliers for all projects in a single run. A case study involving high-technology project selection at NASA is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models and the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.     

Investment project evaluation by a decision making methodology based on type-2 fuzzy sets

Although investment projects supported by the state are extremely important in terms of national policy the projects to be transferred from the common public funds brings with it many problems. Highly transparent and comprehensive evaluation model are required to transfer the public resources to the right investment projects. It is necessary to consider many criteria for the evaluation of an investment project. These criteria are generally subjective and extremely difficult to express in numbers. However, using the fuzzy sets provide huge facilities to decision makers in project evaluation process with linguistic variables and measurement challenges. In this study, a new evaluation model for investment projects have been proposed for development agencies operating in Turkey. To address ambiguities and relativities in real world scenarios more conveniently, type-2 fuzzy sets and crisp sets have been simultaneously used. The proposed model for the investment project evaluation problem composed of type-2 fuzzy AHP and type-2 fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The proposed fuzzy MCDM method consists of three phases: (1) identify the criteria to be used in the model, (2) type-2 fuzzy AHP computations, (3) evaluation of investment projects with type-2 fuzzy TOPSIS and determination of the final rank. To perceive proposed model better, an application with real case data have been performed in Middle Black Sea Development Agency in Turkey. As a consequence of this application, it has been observed that the proposed model have proved effective in evaluation of alternatives in multi-criteria group decision making problems in a broader perspective and flexible fashion.     

Random fuzzy mean-absolute deviation models for portfolio optimization problem with hybrid uncertainty

Absolute deviation is a commonly used risk measure, which has attracted more attentions in portfolio optimization. The existing mean-absolute deviation models are devoted to either stochastic portfolio optimization or fuzzy one. However, practical investment decision problems often involve the mixture of randomness and fuzziness such as stochastic returns with fuzzy information. Thus it is necessary to model portfolio selection problem in such a hybrid uncertain environment. In this paper, we employ random fuzzy variable to describe the stochastic return on individual security with ambiguous information. We first define the absolute deviation of random fuzzy variable and then employ it as risk measure to formulate mean-absolute deviation portfolio optimization models. To find the optimal portfolio, we design random fuzzy simulation and simulation-based genetic algorithm to solve the proposed models. Finally, a numerical example for synthetic data is presented to illustrate the validity of the method.     

Multi‐agent distributed intelligent system based on fuzzy decision making

Generally decision making for solving ill‐structured problems in DSS takes place in uncertain situations. The main drawbacks of existing traditional DSS are inefficiencies associated with dealing with complex models and large databases. Usually a fuzzy DSS has many input variables and, hence, its knowledge base, containing the totality of fuzzy rules, is very large. Large rule base leads to disadvantages in speed, reliability, and complexity of DSS. This paper introduces an alternative concept for designing fuzzy DSS based on multi‐agent distributed artificial intelligent technology and fuzzy decision making. The main idea of the proposed DSS is based on granulation of the overall system intelligence between cooperative autonomous intelligent agents capable of competing and cooperating with each other in order to propose a total solution to the problem and organization (combining individual solutions) of the proposed solution into the final solution. It is supposed that every agent in DSS is characterized by a set of fuzzy criteria of unequal importance and definition of a “winner” agent is based on multi‐criteria fuzzy decision making involving unequal objectives. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

基于AHP和模糊综合评判的投资决策应用研究

在对常用于多目标决策问题的层次分析法、模糊综合评判、灰色系统和德尔菲法进行阐述分析的基础上,结合非赢利领域项目投资决策工作的具体实际情况,探讨了层次分析法和模糊综合评判在项目投资决策中的综合应用,从而较好地利用两种方法的优点,得到项目的综合价值.然后运用运筹学相关知识,通过建立线性规划模型来反映影响投资安排的外在条件,对待选项目进行筛选,完成计算机自动决策,为最终投资安排提供一个较为规范、科学的辅助决策依据.     

Developing an integrated model for the evaluation and selection of six sigma projects based on ANFIS and fuzzy goal programming

Six sigma is one of the most popular tools to eliminate waste in organizations, reduce the cost and improve quality. The process of creating and evaluating projects is an initial activity in implementing six sigma. This paper aims at proposing a comprehensive methodology for the evaluation and selection of the six sigma projects. For the evaluation of projects, reviewing the literature and decision team’s opinion, we identified three main categories of criteria including business criteria, technological & process criteria and financial criteria which contain eight sub-criteria. For deriving the overall utility of projects, we designed an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system which is capable to consider interrelations among criteria. Then, applying a fuzzy weighted additive goal programming model, we obtained the optimal portfolio of projects which should be implemented. Finally, we applied the proposed model in a leading company in Iran to illustrate the applicability of the model.     

A fuzzy long-term investment planning model for a GenCo in a hybrid electricity market considering climate change impacts

We study the long-term generation capacity investment problem of an independent power generation company (GenCo) that functions in an environment where GenCos perform business with both bilateral contracts (BC) and transactions in the day-ahead market (DAM). A fuzzy mixed integer linear programming model with a fuzzy objective and fuzzy constraints is developed to incorporate the impacts of imprecision/uncertainty in the economic environment on the calculation of the optimal value of the GenCo’s objective function. In formulating the fuzzy objective function we also include the potential impacts of climate change on the energy output of hydroelectric power plants. In addition to formulating and solving the capacity planning/investment problem, we also performed scenario-based (sensitivity) analysis to explore how investment decisions of the GenCos change when fuzziness (tolerance) in the maximum energy output of hydroelectric units and/or drought expectation increases. The proposed model is novel and investigates the effects of factors like drought expectations of climate changes, hydroelectric power plant investments, and other power generation technology investment options.     

A new approach for selecting portfolio of new product development projects

The most decisive factor that survives enterprises under stiff competition is the development of new product (NPD), and when entering the product development stage after the fuzzy front end, a best project portfolio should be finalized in order to potentially create expected revenue and competitive advantage. However, even it reaches the end of the fuzzy front stage; the NPD project is still significantly involved with uncertainties, complexities and fuzziness. To assist R&D managers making decision in this environment, this study proposes a new approach which combines fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria group decision making method into a NPD project portfolio selection model. This model takes into account project performance, project delivery and project risk, and formulates the selection decision of NPD project portfolio as a fuzzy linear programming problem. The illustrative example shows that the model proposed can generate projects with the highest success rate under limited resources and manpower.     

DSS鲁棒性的模糊逻辑改进

DSS的设计中，决策模型或决策规则的构建都经常的涉及不确定性问题．而DSS的鲁棒性是衡量DSS解决不确定性问题的主要标志．本文针对这一问题，提出了一种基于模糊逻辑技术的DSS设计，并与传统的基于线形加权和法的DSS进行比较，显示其在鲁棒性方面的突出改进．     

A decision support system for fuzzy multi-objective multi-period sustainable project selection

In this paper, a Decision Support System (DSS) is developed to solve sustainable Multi-Objective Project Selection problem with Multi-Period Planning Horizon (MOPS-MPPH). First, a TOPSIS based fuzzy goal programming (FGP) is proposed which considered uncertain DM preferences on priority of achievement level of fuzzy goals. The FGP essentially considers economic factors like cost, profit, and budget. The output of FGP and other affecting factors (i.e. social and environmental effects, risk of investment, strategic alliance, and organizational readiness) are treated as inputs of a fuzzy rule based system to estimate fitness value of an investment. Properties of the proposed DSS are discussed. It also is compared with an existing procedure on historical data of a financial and credit institute.     

An ontology-based fuzzy decision support system for multiple sclerosis

The use of Magnetic Resonance (MR) as a supporting tool in the diagnosis and monitoring of multiple sclerosis (MS) and in the assessment of treatment effects requires the accurate determination of cerebral white matter lesion (WML) volumes. In order to automatically support neuroradiologists in the classification of WMLs, an ontology-based fuzzy decision support system (DSS) has been devised and implemented. The DSS encodes high-level, specialized medical knowledge in terms of ontologies and fuzzy rules and applies this knowledge in conjunction with a fuzzy inference engine to classify WMLs and to obtain a measure of their volumes. The performance of the DSS has been quantitatively evaluated on 120 patients affected by MS. Specifically, binary classification results have been first obtained by applying thresholds on fuzzy outputs and then evaluated, by means of ROC curves, in terms of trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. Similarity measures of WMLs have been also computed for a further quantitative analysis. Moreover, a statistical analysis has been carried out for appraising the DSS influence on the diagnostic tasks of physicians. The evaluation has shown that the DSS offers an innovative and valuable way to perform automated WML classification in real clinical settings.     

A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in the uncertain decision making environments. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would entail improper results on strategic investment projects valuation. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy expanded NPV that represents the entire value of project. Finally, we use the approach to practically evaluate a project.