基于改进动态纹理模型的人体运动分析

人体运动分析是计算机视觉领域最活跃的研究课题之一。文中提出2种描述人体运动序列的改进动态纹理模型:二值动态纹理模型和张量子空间动态纹理模型。假设二值图像服从Bernoulli分布,二值动态纹理模型使用二值主成分分析来学习训练模型的参数。张量子空间动态纹理模型将图像看作张量, 引入张量子空间分析的方法分别对其行向量和列向量进行降维,将其转化为低维灰度图像,然后用动态纹理模型描述灰度图像序列。在人体行为和步态数据库上的实验结果验证2种改进动态纹理模型的有效性。     

Enrollment Management Model: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Regression

This paper presents an enrollment management model by applying artificial neural network (ANN). The aim of the research, which has been presented in this paper, is to show that ANNs are more successful in predicting than the classical statistical method – regression analysis (logistic regression). Both predictive models, no matter whether they are based on ANNs or logistic regression, offer satisfactory predictive results, and they can offer support in the decision-making process. However, the model based on neural networks shows certain advantages. ANNs demand understanding of functional connection between independent and dependent variables in order to evaluate the model. Also, they adapt easily to related independent variables, without the appearance of the problem of multicollinearity. In contrast to logistic regression, neural networks can recognize the appearance of nonlinearity and interactions in input data, and they can react on time.     

A holistic multi-objective optimization design procedure for ensemble member generation and selection

In the last few years, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to solve engineering problems. However, owing to certain complexities found in real-world problems, such as class imbalance, classical learning algorithms may not reach a prescribed performance. There can be situations where a good result on different conflicting objectives is desirable, such as true positive and true negative ratios, or it is important to balance model’s complexity and prediction score. To solve such issues, the application of multi-objective optimization design procedures can be used to analyze various trade-offs and build more robust machine learning models. Thus, the creation of ensembles of predictive models using such procedures is addressed in this work. First, a set of diverse predictive models is built by employing a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Next, a second multi-objective optimization step selects the previous models as ensemble members, resulting on several non-dominated solutions. A final multi-criteria decision making stage is applied to rank and visualize the resulting ensembles. To analyze the proposed methodology, two different experiments are conducted for binary classification. The first case study is a famous classification problem through which the proposed procedure is illustrated. The second one is a challenging real-world problem related to water quality monitoring, where the proposed procedure is compared to four classical ensemble learning algorithms. Results on this second experiment show that the proposed technique is able to create robust ensembles that can outperform other ensemble methods. Overall, the authors conclude that the proposed methodology for ensemble generation creates competitive models for real-world engineering problems.     

Functional PLS logit regression model

Functional logistic regression has been developed to forecast a binary response variable from a functional predictor. In order to fit this model, it is usual to assume that the functional observations and the parameter function of the model belong to a same finite space generated by a basis of functions. This consideration turns the functional model into a multiple logit model whose design matrix is the product of the matrix of sample paths basic coefficients and the matrix of the inner products between basic functions. The likelihood estimation of the parameter function of this model is very inaccurate due to the high dependence structure of the so obtained design matrix (multicollinearity). In order to solve this drawback several approaches have been proposed. These employ standard multivariate data analysis methods on the design matrix. This is the case of the functional principal component logistic regression model. As an alternative a functional partial least squares logit regression model is proposed, that has as covariates a set of partial least squares components of the design matrix of the multiple logit model associated to the functional one.     

Cohesion prediction using information flow: an empirical feasibility study and comparison using students as inexperienced designers

This paper describes an experimental investigation that demonstrates the feasibility of predicting weakly bound cohesive software modules [W.P. Stevens, G.J. Myers and L.L. Constantine, IBM Systems Journal (2) (1974) pp. 115–140] at the design stage of development. It compares the predictive capability of prediction systems, for weakly bound cohesive modules, based on classical regression models with systems that use binary logistic regression models. It also considers the models’ parsimony of parameters and their fit to the sampled data. Further, the external validity of the prediction systems is discussed and an appropriate mode of usage is proposed for the ‘better’ statistical models.     

Study of corporate credit risk prediction based on integrating boosting and random subspace

With the rapid growth and increased competition in credit industry, the corporate credit risk prediction is becoming more important for credit-granting institutions. In this paper, we propose an integrated ensemble approach, called RS-Boosting, which is based on two popular ensemble strategies, i.e., boosting and random subspace, for corporate credit risk prediction. As there are two different factors encouraging diversity in RS-Boosting, it would be advantageous to get better performance. Two corporate credit datasets are selected to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. Experimental results reveal that RS-Boosting gets the best performance among seven methods, i.e., logistic regression analysis (LRA), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), bagging, boosting and random subspace. All these results illustrate that RS-Boosting can be used as an alternative method for corporate credit risk prediction.     

Identification of errors-in-variables state space models with observation outliers based on minimum covariance determinant

In this paper, a subspace system identification algorithm for the errors-in-variables (EIV) state space models subject to observation noise with outliers has been developed. By using the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator, the outliers have been identified and deleted. Then the classical EIV subspace system identification algorithms have been applied to estimate the parameters of the state space models. In order to solve the MCD problem for the EIV state space models, a random search algorithm has been proposed. A Monte-Carlo simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Forecasting business failure using two‐stage ensemble of multivariate discriminant analysis and logistic regression

A major drawback associated with the use of classical statistical methods for business failure prediction on top of financial distress is their lack of high accuracy rate. This work analyses the use of the two‐stage ensemble of multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit to improve predictive performance of classical statistical methods. All possible ratios are firstly built from the quantities involved and then the three common filters, that is stepwise MDA, stepwise logit, and t‐test, are used to choose another three convenient subsets of ratios. Four principal components spaces (PCSs) are, respectively, produced on the four different feature spaces by using principal components analysis. MDA and logit are used to produce predictions on the four PCSs. After that, two levels of ensemble are implemented: one based on predictions inside each of the same type of model (i.e. MDA or logit) and another based on the former two ensembles and one best model. Each of the eight models is weighted on the base of ranking order information of its predictive accuracy in ensemble by majority voting. MDA and logit and the new challenge model of support vector machine respectively in their best standalone modes are used for comparisons. Empirical results indicate that the two‐stage ensemble of MDA and logit compares favourably with the three comparative models and all its component models.     

Nonignorable dropout models for longitudinal binary data with random effects: An application of Monte Carlo approximation through the Gibbs output

The analysis of longitudinal data with nonignorable dropout remains an active area in biostatistics research. Nonignorable dropout (ND) refers to the type of dropout when the probability of dropout depends on the missing observations at or after the time of dropout. Failure to account for such dependence may result in biased inference. Motivated by a methadone clinic data of longitudinal binary observations with dropouts, we propose a conditional first order autoregressive (AR1) logit model for the outcome measurements. The model is further extended to incorporate random effects in order to account for the population heterogeneity and intra-cluster correlation. The purposed models account for the dropout mechanism by a separate logit model in some covariates and missing outcomes for the binary dropout indicators. For model implementation, we proposed a likelihood approach through Monte Carlo approximation to the Gibbs output that evaluates the complicated likelihood function for the random effect ND model without tear. Finally simulation studies are performed to evaluate the biases on the parameter estimates of the outcome model for different dropout mechanisms.     

Modelling speech emotion recognition using logistic regression and decision trees

Speech emotion recognition has been one of the interesting issues in speech processing over the last few decades. Modelling of the emotion recognition process serves to understand as well as assess the performance of the system. This paper compares two different models for speech emotion recognition using vocal tract features namely, the first four formants and their respective bandwidths. The first model is based on a decision tree and the second one employs logistic regression. Whereas the decision tree models are based on machine learning, regression models have a strong statistical basis. The logistic regression models and the decision tree models developed in this work for several cases of binary classifications were validated by speech emotion recognition experiments conducted on a Malayalam emotional speech database of 2800 speech files, collected from ten speakers. The models are not only simple, but also meaningful since they indicate the contribution of each predictor. The experimental results indicate that speech emotion recognition using formants and bandwidths was better modelled using decision trees, which gave higher emotion recognition accuracies compared to logistic regression. The highest accuracy obtained using decision tree was 93.63%, for the classification of positive valence emotional speech as surprised or happy, using seven features. When using logistic regression for the same binary classification, the highest accuracy obtained was 73%, with eight features.     

分段抽样模型中抽中目标的概率分析

为了增大基于种群操作的搜索技术在有限时间内捕捉到决策空间中的特定目标的概率,基于古典概率模型建立不划分的随机抽样模型和划分成多个子区域的随机抽样模型(简称划分模型),分析比较了两个模型分别进行多次独立随机抽样至少抽中1次特定目标的概率,并证明：当总体中特定目标的数量为1或2时,划分模型抽中特定目标的概率恒大于不划分模型的概率。     

Ensembles for multi-target regression with random output selections

We address the task of multi-target regression, where we generate global models that simultaneously predict multiple continuous variables. We use ensembles of generalized decision trees, called predictive clustering trees (PCTs), in particular bagging and random forests (RF) of PCTs and extremely randomized PCTs (extra PCTs). We add another dimension of randomization to these ensemble methods by learning individual base models that consider random subsets of target variables, while leaving the input space randomizations (in RF PCTs and extra PCTs) intact. Moreover, we propose a new ensemble prediction aggregation function, where the final ensemble prediction for a given target is influenced only by those base models that considered it during learning. An extensive experimental evaluation on a range of benchmark datasets has been conducted, where the extended ensemble methods were compared to the original ensemble methods, individual multi-target regression trees, and ensembles of single-target regression trees in terms of predictive performance, running times and model sizes. The results show that the proposed ensemble extension can yield better predictive performance, reduce learning time or both, without a considerable change in model size. The newly proposed aggregation function gives best results when used with extremely randomized PCTs. We also include a comparison with three competing methods, namely random linear target combinations and two variants of random projections.     

Discussion of different logistic models with functional data. Application to Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

The relationship between time evolution of stress and flares in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus patients has recently been studied. Daily stress data can be considered as observations of a single variable for a subject, carried out repeatedly at different time points (functional data). In this study, we propose a functional logistic regression model with the aim of predicting the probability of lupus flare (binary response variable) from a functional predictor variable (stress level). This method differs from the classical approach, in which longitudinal data are considered as observations of different correlated variables. The estimation of this functional model may be inaccurate due to multicollinearity, and so a principal component based solution is proposed. In addition, a new interpretation is made of the parameter function of the model, which enables the relationship between the response and the predictor variables to be evaluated. Finally, the results provided by different logit approaches (functional and longitudinal) are compared, using a sample of Lupus patients.     

基于多样性加权相似度的集成局部加权偏最小二乘软测量建模

针对传统即时学习软测量方法仅考虑单一的相似度函数,难以有效处理复杂工业过程中的非线性特性,从而导致模型预测性能受限的问题,提出了一种基于多样性加权相似度（DWS）的集成局部加权偏最小二乘（LWPLS）软测量建模方法.首先采用随机子空间法和高斯混合聚类,构建一组多样性的训练样本子集;然后通过偏最小二乘回归分析确定输入特征权值,从而定义一组多样性加权相似度函数.在线实施阶段,对于任意的查询样本,基于多样性的相似度指标,可建立一组多样性的LWPLS软测量模型,随后引入集成学习策略实现难测变量的融合预测.在数值例子和脱丁烷塔过程中的应用结果表明了该方法的有效性.     

Discussion of different logistic models with functional data. Application to Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

The relationship between time evolution of stress and flares in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus patients has recently been studied. Daily stress data can be considered as observations of a single variable for a subject, carried out repeatedly at different time points (functional data). In this study, we propose a functional logistic regression model with the aim of predicting the probability of lupus flare (binary response variable) from a functional predictor variable (stress level). This method differs from the classical approach, in which longitudinal data are considered as observations of different correlated variables. The estimation of this functional model may be inaccurate due to multicollinearity, and so a principal component based solution is proposed. In addition, a new interpretation is made of the parameter function of the model, which enables the relationship between the response and the predictor variables to be evaluated. Finally, the results provided by different logit approaches (functional and longitudinal) are compared, using a sample of Lupus patients.     

Decision support for selecting optimal logistic regression models

This study concerns itself with providing user support for a decision problem in logistic regression analysis: given a set of metric variables and one binary dependent variable, select the optimal subset of variables that can best predict this dependent variable. The problem requires an evaluation of competing models based on heuristic selection criteria such as goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy. This paper documents the heuristics, formalizes the algorithms, and eventually presents an interactive decision support system to facilitate the selection of such an optimal model.This study adds to the sparsely studied domain of expert systems for social science researchers, and makes three contributions to the literature. First, the study formalizes a number of heuristics to arrive at optimal logistic regression models. Second, the study presents two computational algorithms that incorporate these formalized heuristics. Third, the paper documents an implementation of these algorithms through an interactive decision support system. The study concludes with a discussion on the risks of relying too heavily on the system and with future opportunities for research.     

Task allocation and trajectory planning for multiple agents in the presence of obstacle and connectivity constraints with mixed‐integer linear programming

This article addresses the problem of maneuvering multiple agents that must visit a number of target sets, while enforcing connectivity constraints and avoiding obstacle as well as interagent collisions. The tool to cope with the problem is a formulation of model predictive control including binary decision variables. In this regard, two mixed‐integer linear programming formulations are presented, considering a trade‐off between optimality and scalability between them. Simulation results are also shown to illustrate the main features of the proposed approaches.     

Logistic regression in sealed-bid auctions with multiple rounds: Application in Korean court auction

This paper proposes a forecasting method for court auction information system using logistic regression model with heterogeneity across the multiple round. The goal is to predict whether an individual auction item in a certain round will be sold or not. A simple linear regression and the least angle regression (LARS) containing random effect terms were used to select meaningful variables for our logit model. The link function of the proposed logit model is represented by two bundles of parameters. The former part consists of the parameters whose values do not change over rounds. The latter part has parameters whose values interact with rounds. The observed data corresponding to an appraiser price as well as an intercept term reflecting local characteristics are used without any change. Data that corresponds to all the other parameters is not directly used, but transformed based on similarities between the original item and the surrounding auction items being recommended by the court auction experts. We tested the Bayesian logistic regression by establishing different priors: Dunson’s prior, Gelman’s prior and Ansari’s prior. Dunson’s prior was found to perform the best. Little significant difference was found between the results of the other two priors. These findings indicate that logistic regression taking the heterogeneity of multi-round into account performs better than a one-layered neural network over all time periods.     

Comparing statistical and machine learning classifiers: alternatives for predictive modeling in human factors research

Multivariate classification models play an increasingly important role in human factors research. In the past, these models have been based primarily on discriminant analysis and logistic regression. Models developed from machine learning research offer the human factors professional a viable alternative to these traditional statistical classification methods. To illustrate this point, two machine learning approaches--genetic programming and decision tree induction--were used to construct classification models designed to predict whether or not a student truck driver would pass his or her commercial driver license (CDL) examination. The models were developed and validated using the curriculum scores and CDL exam performances of 37 student truck drivers who had completed a 320-hr driver training course. Results indicated that the machine learning classification models were superior to discriminant analysis and logistic regression in terms of predictive accuracy. Actual or potential applications of this research include the creation of models that more accurately predict human performance outcomes.     

Marginal likelihoods for non-Gaussian models using auxiliary mixture sampling

Several new estimators of the marginal likelihood for complex non-Gaussian models are developed. These estimators make use of the output of auxiliary mixture sampling for count data and for binary and multinomial data. One of these estimators is based on combining Chib’s estimator with data augmentation as in auxiliary mixture sampling, while the other estimators are importance sampling and bridge sampling based on constructing an unsupervised importance density from the output of auxiliary mixture sampling. These estimators are applied to a logit regression model, to a Poisson regression model, to a binomial model with random intercept, as well as to state space modeling of count data.