The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries

This paper estimates the causal relationships between energy consumption and income for India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, using cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. The results indicate that, in the short-run, unidirectional Granger causality runs from energy to income for India and Indonesia, while bidirectional Granger causality runs from energy to income for Thailand and the Philippines. In the case of Thailand and the Philippines, energy, income and prices are mutually causal. The study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other, with the exception of Indonesia and India where neutrality is observed in the short-run.     

The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan

This paper considers the possibility of both a linear effect and nonlinear effect of energy consumption on economic growth, using data for the period 1955–2003 in Taiwan. We find evidence of a level-dependent effect between the two variables. Allowing for a nonlinear effect of energy consumption growth sheds new light on the explanation of the characteristics of the energy-growth link. We also provide evidence that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Taiwan is characterized by an inverse U-shape. Some previous studies support the view that energy consumption may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from the empirical findings suggests that such a relationship exists only where there is a low level of energy consumption in Taiwan. We show that a threshold regression provides a better empirical model than the standard linear model and that policy-makers should seek to capture economic structures associated with different stages of economic growth. It is also worth noting that the energy consumption threshold was reached in the case of Taiwan in the world energy crises periods of 1979 and 1982.     

The relationship among energy prices and energy consumption in China

The pricing mechanism for energy is not in line with the international standards, because the energy prices are controlled by the government partly or completely in China. Chinese government made a lot of efforts to improve the pricing mechanism for energy. The relations between Chinese energy prices and energy consumption are the foundations to reform the mechanism. In this paper, the relations between Chinese energy consumption and energy prices are researched by cointegration equations, impulse response functions, granger causality and variance decomposition. The cointegration relations among energy prices, energy consumption and economic outputs show that higher energy price will decrease energy consumption in Chinese industrial sectors but will not reduce the economic output in the long run. The cointegration relation between energy price and household energy consumption shows that higher energy price will decrease household energy consumption in the long run and increase it in the short run. So Chinese government should deepen the reform of pricing mechanism for energy, and increase the energy prices reasonably to save energy.     

Urbanisation and its impact on building energy consumption and efficiency in China

The People's Republic of China and its 1.3 billion people have experienced a rapid economic growth in the past two decades. China's urbanisation ratio rose from around 20% in the early 1980s to 45% in 2007 [China Urban Research Committee. Green building. Beijing: Chinese Construction Industrial Publish House; 2008. ISBN 978-7-112-09925-2.]. The large volume and rapid speed of building construction rarely have been seen in global development and cause substantial pressure on resources and the environment. Government policy makers and building professionals, including architects, building engineers, project managers and property developers, should play an important role in enhancing the planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance of the building energy efficiency process in forming the sustainable urban development. This paper addresses the emerging issues relating to building energy consumption and building energy efficiency due to the fast urbanisation development in China.     

The impact of energy prices: A housing market analysis

This paper investigates the effect of energy costs on the housing market response. As the effect of energy costs has not been specifically investigated before in the literature, both a linear and non-linear model were investigated. The choice of the appropriate model was determined using the Box-Cox transformation technique. The chosen model was then validated. The results reveal that in the Spokane, Washington, area, where energy costs are relatively low, energy prices do not have a significant effect on market response. However, applying the same methodology to areas where energy costs are higher might produce different results.     

Return on investment from industrial energy efficiency: evidence from developing countries

Energy efficiency is a foundation of any good energy policy. The economic, security, and environmental benefits of energy efficiency have been recognized for decades. We explore energy efficiency investments derived from survey work in developing countries in 119 projects across nine manufacturing subsectors. The methodology utilizes financial return calculations to highlight gaps and opportunities for meeting the potential of energy efficiency projects in the manufacturing sector. We find a generally very high level of internal rates of return at a project level—with payback periods ranging from 0.9 to 2.9 years; but note that these metrics do not always appropriately influence corporate decision-making for a number of well-understood reasons.     

The impacts of energy prices on energy intensity: Evidence from China

In this paper, we present a review of the deregulation of energy prices in China between 1985 and 2004 and assess the impacts of changes in energy prices on aggregate energy intensity and coal/oil/electricity intensity. We used time series data to provide estimates of energy price elasticities. Empirical results showed that: (1) The own-price elasticities of coal, oil, and aggregate energy were negative in periods both before and after 1995, implying that higher relative prices of different energy types lead to the decrease in coal, oil, and aggregate energy intensities. However, the positive own-price elasticity of electricity after 1995 probably indicates that the price effect was weaker than other factors such as income effect and population effect. (2) The impacts of energy prices were asymmetric over time. (3) Sectoral adjustment also drove the decrease in aggregate energy intensity. Although raising energy prices to boost efficiency of energy use seems to be an effective policy tool, other policy implications concerned with energy prices, such as energy supply security and fuel poverty, must also be considered.     

Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study

Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load.     

Oil prices,nuclear energy consumption,and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

This paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971–2006. The panel cointegration results show that in the long run, oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption, suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. The long-run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0.89, and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. Furthermore, the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run, while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run.     

The effects of home energy efficiency upgrades on social housing tenants: evidence from Ireland

This research examines some of the multiple benefits of a home energy efficiency upgrade programme for social housing tenants. Employing a quasi-experimental approach, we examine a range of objectively measured and self-reported outcomes, including metered gas consumption, for a control and upgrade group, before and after the upgrade. We drew our sample from a large home energy efficiency programme in Ireland, The SEAI Better Energy Communities Scheme, which provides funding for whole communities to upgrade the efficiency of their dwellings. Dwellings were selected for upgrade based on need, allowing us to control for observable dwelling characteristics correlated with selection into the trial. The upgrades undertaken were extensive relative to the average home energy improvement, with many dwellings receiving a number of measures. Households reported improvements across a range of outcomes associated with heating-related deprivation and comfort in the home. We use panel regression models to estimate the elasticity of gas demand with respect to the thermal efficiency of the dwellings. Overall, we find that use of natural gas fell much less than 1:1 for each increment to thermal efficiency of the home. For the average household in this study, about one third of the marginal increase in thermal efficiency was reflected in reduced gas demand. This result highlights issues with standard engineering models which are commonly used to assess the energy efficiency of dwellings and points to a behavioural response from households, potentially taking back some of the savings as increased internal temperatures.     

Jevons’ Paradox revisited: The evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency

Beginning with William Stanley Jevons in 1865, a number of authors have claimed that economically justified energy-efficiency improvements will increase rather than reduce energy consumption. ‘Jevons Paradox’ is extremely difficult to test empirically, but could have profound implications for energy and climate policy. This paper summarises and critiques the arguments and evidence that have been cited in support of Jevons’ Paradox, focusing in particular on the work of Len Brookes and Harry Saunders. It identifies some empirical and theoretical weaknesses in these arguments, highlights the questions they raise for economic orthodoxy and points to some interesting parallels between these arguments and those used by the ‘biophysical’ school of ecological economics. While the evidence in favour of ‘Jevons Paradox’ is far from conclusive, it does suggest that economy-wide rebound effects are larger than is conventionally assumed and that energy plays a more important role in driving productivity improvements and economic growth than is conventionally assumed.     

The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages

The world prices of some food and energy products have followed similar large swings in recent years. We investigate the long-run relationship between these prices using a world Computable General Equilibrium model with detailed representations of food and energy markets. Particular attention is paid to specifying macro-economic linkages which have often been overlooked in recent analysis and debate. We find that the omission of these macro-economic linkages has a substantial bearing on this relationship. A positive relationship due to the cost push effect has been identified in most analysis, but we find that the introduction of the real income effect may indeed imply a negative relationship between world food and energy prices.     

The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use two exploratory simulation models to investigate the consequences of the combination of both complexity and uncertainty in relation to the global energy system and state stability. Our simulations show that shale developments could be seen as part of a long term hog-cycle, with a short term drop in oil prices if unconventional supply substitutes demand for oil. These lower oil prices may lead to instability in rentier states neighbouring the EU, especially when dependence on oil and gas income is high, youth bulges are present, or buffers like sovereign wealth funds are too limited to bridge the negative economic effects of temporary low oil prices.     

The impact on energy consumption of daylight saving clock changes

The focus of this work is an investigation of the effect of prevailing time regime on energy consumption. In particular we perform analysis demonstrating potential energy savings which could be obtained were Great Britain to maintain daylight savings time (DST) over winter, instead of reverting to Greenwich mean time (GMT). We review the literature on the effect of DST on energy consumption and show that this indicates a justification for considering the issue. Our headline result is in agreement with many related studies in that advancing the clock by an hour in winter would lead to energy savings of at least 0.3% of daily demand in Great Britain. In deriving this result we have adopted methodologies currently used in load prediction, in particular Support Vector Regression, to estimate energy demand on a half-hourly basis.     

Liberalisation,consumption heterogeneity and the dynamics of energy prices

In this study, the methodology VAR and the cointegration analysis are used to examine the dynamic interaction among the energy prices of the competitor energy sources in a liberalised market. Data from the UK market were applied, and models for the residential and industrial sectors were developed. Our results indicate the existence of long-run relationships between the energy prices before and after the liberalisation, implying the possibility of substitution among the different forms of energy. However, the results appear to be also largely influenced by external variables not included in the models that may be reducing the importance of the energy prices over their own evolution and offsetting the basic substitution relationships. The general results of the Impulse Response Functions, both for the residential and industrial sectors, present low statistical significance, which seems to be due to the still slow rate of adjustment of the energy market to price changes, along with the immaturity of the liberalisation process. Taking into consideration the results, some routes for future research are pointed out, namely the need to include in the analysis variables which would proxy the general state of the economy.     

Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries

This study utilizes the Johansen cointegration technique, the Granger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the generalized impulse response function, and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition to examine the dynamic interrelationship among nuclear energy consumption, real oil price, oil consumption, and real income in six highly industrialized countries for the period 1965-2008. Our empirical results indicate that the relationships between nuclear energy consumption and oil are as substitutes in the U.S. and Canada, while they are complementary in France, Japan, and the U.K. Second, the long-run income elasticity of nuclear energy is larger than one, indicating that nuclear energy is a luxury good. Third, the results of the Granger causality test find evidence of unidirectional causality running from real income to nuclear energy consumption in Japan. A bidirectional relationship appears in Canada, Germany and the U.K., while no causality exists in France and the U.S. We also find evidence of causality running from real oil price to nuclear energy consumption, except for the U.S., and causality running from oil consumption to nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Japan, and the U.K., suggesting that changes in price and consumption of oil influence nuclear energy consumption. Finally, the results observe transitory initial impacts of innovations in real income and oil consumption on nuclear energy consumption. In the long run the impact of real oil price is relatively larger compared with that of real income on nuclear energy consumption in Canada, Germany, Japan, and the U.S.     

Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper studies the stability between energy consumption and GDP for Taiwan during 1954–2003. We use aggregate as well as various disaggregate data of energy consumption, including coal, oil, gas, and electricity, to employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for structural breaks. Our main findings are: First, though gas consumption seems to have structural breaks in the 1960s, after considering the structural breaks, the series is a stationary variable when Taiwan adopted its expansionary export trade policy. Second, we find that different directions of causality exist between GDP and various kinds of energy consumption. The empirical result shows unanimously in the long run that energy acts as an engine of economic growth, and that energy conservation may harm economic growth. Third, the cointegration between energy consumption and GDP is unstable, and some economic events may affect the stability. Overall, we do find the structural breakpoints, and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic incidents.     

The role of rare earth prices in renewable energy consumption: The actual driver for a renewable energy world

This study examines, for the first time in the energy issues literature, the long-run relationship between rare earth prices and the consumption of energy from renewables. The study applies standard time series econometric methodologies and monthly data in relevance to regional and income classification groups of countries, spanning the period 2004–2016. The empirical findings indicate the presence of a long-run relationship between these variables, but for certain rare earths and regions. The findings survive a multivariate robustness test, while they are expected to be of substantial importance for the world community, given that a few countries have control of those materials. The importance is lying on the need to establish a global green energy environment.     

Environment-adjusted regional energy efficiency in Taiwan

This study applies the four-stage DEA procedure to calculate the energy efficiency of 23 regions in Taiwan from 1998 to 2007. After controlling for the effects of external environments, only Taipei City, Chiayi City, and Kaohsiung City are energy efficient. Note that Kaohsiung City reaches the efficiency frontier due to the adjustment via partial environmental factors such as higher education attainment and transport vehicles. We also find a worsening trend for Taiwan’s energy efficiency. Not only is there a gap of energy efficiency between Taiwan’s metropolitan areas and the other regions, but the gap has also widened in recent years. Those inefficient counties should be given priority and the savings potential. Except for road density, the evidence indicates that each environmental factor has partial incremental effects on input slacks. As more cars and motorcycles are unfavorable externalities affecting partial energy efficiency, the central government should help local governments retire inefficient old motor vehicles, encourage energy-saving vehicle models, and provide convenient mass transportation systems. Besides, people with higher education cause industrial energy inefficient in Taiwan. The conscious of effective energy saving is necessary to schools, communities, and employee accordingly.