How the online social networks are used: dialogues-based structure of MySpace

Quantitative study of collective dynamics in online social networks is a new challenge based on the abundance of empirical data. Conclusions, however, may depend on factors such as user''s psychology profiles and their reasons to use the online contacts. In this study, we have compiled and analysed two datasets from MySpace. The data contain networked dialogues occurring within a specified time depth, high temporal resolution and texts of messages, in which the emotion valence is assessed by using the SentiStrength classifier. Performing a comprehensive analysis, we obtain three groups of results: dynamic topology of the dialogues-based networks have a characteristic structure with Zipf''s distribution of communities, low link reciprocity and disassortative correlations. Overlaps supporting ‘weak-ties’ hypothesis are found to follow the laws recently conjectured for online games. Long-range temporal correlations and persistent fluctuations occur in the time series of messages carrying positive (negative) emotion; patterns of user communications have dominant positive emotion (attractiveness) and strong impact of circadian cycles and interactivity times longer than 1 day. Taken together, these results give a new insight into the functioning of online social networks and unveil the importance of the amount of information and emotion that is communicated along the social links. All data used in this study are fully anonymized.     

Analytical reasoning task reveals limits of social learning in networks

Social learning—by observing and copying others—is a highly successful cultural mechanism for adaptation, outperforming individual information acquisition and experience. Here, we investigate social learning in the context of the uniquely human capacity for reflective, analytical reasoning. A hallmark of the human mind is its ability to engage analytical reasoning, and suppress false associative intuitions. Through a set of laboratory-based network experiments, we find that social learning fails to propagate this cognitive strategy. When people make false intuitive conclusions and are exposed to the analytic output of their peers, they recognize and adopt this correct output. But they fail to engage analytical reasoning in similar subsequent tasks. Thus, humans exhibit an ‘unreflective copying bias’, which limits their social learning to the output, rather than the process, of their peers’ reasoning—even when doing so requires minimal effort and no technical skill. In contrast to much recent work on observation-based social learning, which emphasizes the propagation of successful behaviour through copying, our findings identify a limit on the power of social networks in situations that require analytical reasoning.     

Social insect colony as a biological regulatory system: modelling information flow in dominance networks

Social insects provide an excellent platform to investigate flow of information in regulatory systems since their successful social organization is essentially achieved by effective information transfer through complex connectivity patterns among the colony members. Network representation of such behavioural interactions offers a powerful tool for structural as well as dynamical analysis of the underlying regulatory systems. In this paper, we focus on the dominance interaction networks in the tropical social wasp Ropalidia marginata—a species where behavioural observations indicate that such interactions are principally responsible for the transfer of information between individuals about their colony needs, resulting in a regulation of their own activities. Our research reveals that the dominance networks of R. marginata are structurally similar to a class of naturally evolved information processing networks, a fact confirmed also by the predominance of a specific substructure—the ‘feed-forward loop’—a key functional component in many other information transfer networks. The dynamical analysis through Boolean modelling confirms that the networks are sufficiently stable under small fluctuations and yet capable of more efficient information transfer compared to their randomized counterparts. Our results suggest the involvement of a common structural design principle in different biological regulatory systems and a possible similarity with respect to the effect of selection on the organization levels of such systems. The findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that dominance behaviour has been shaped by natural selection to co-opt the information transfer process in such social insect species, in addition to its primal function of mediation of reproductive competition in the colony.     

Structure and formation of ant transportation networks

Many biological systems use extensive networks for the transport of resources and information. Ants are no exception. How do biological systems achieve efficient transportation networks in the absence of centralized control and without global knowledge of the environment? Here, we address this question by studying the formation and properties of inter-nest transportation networks in the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). We find that the formation of inter-nest networks depends on the number of ants involved in the construction process. When the number of ants is sufficient and networks do form, they tend to have short total length but a low level of robustness. These networks are topologically similar to either minimum spanning trees or Steiner networks. The process of network formation involves an initial construction of multiple links followed by a pruning process that reduces the number of trails. Our study thus illuminates the conditions under and the process by which minimal biological transport networks can be constructed.     

Delayed self-regulation and time-dependent chemical drive leads to novel states in epigenetic landscapes

The epigenetic pathway of a cell as it differentiates from a stem cell state to a mature lineage-committed one has been historically understood in terms of Waddington''s landscape, consisting of hills and valleys. The smooth top and valley-strewn bottom of the hill represent their undifferentiated and differentiated states, respectively. Although mathematical ideas rooted in nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation theory have been used to quantify this picture, the importance of time delays arising from multistep chemical reactions or cellular shape transformations have been ignored so far. We argue that this feature is crucial in understanding cell differentiation and explore the role of time delay in a model of a single-gene regulatory circuit. We show that the interplay of time-dependent drive and delay introduces a new regime where the system shows sustained oscillations between the two admissible steady states. We interpret these results in the light of recent perplexing experiments on inducing the pluripotent state in mouse somatic cells. We also comment on how such an oscillatory state can provide a framework for understanding more general feedback circuits in cell development.     

The cost of attack in competing networks

Real-world attacks can be interpreted as the result of competitive interactions between networks, ranging from predator–prey networks to networks of countries under economic sanctions. Although the purpose of an attack is to damage a target network, it also curtails the ability of the attacker, which must choose the duration and magnitude of an attack to avoid negative impacts on its own functioning. Nevertheless, despite the large number of studies on interconnected networks, the consequences of initiating an attack have never been studied. Here, we address this issue by introducing a model of network competition where a resilient network is willing to partially weaken its own resilience in order to more severely damage a less resilient competitor. The attacking network can take over the competitor''s nodes after their long inactivity. However, owing to a feedback mechanism the takeovers weaken the resilience of the attacking network. We define a conservation law that relates the feedback mechanism to the resilience dynamics for two competing networks. Within this formalism, we determine the cost and optimal duration of an attack, allowing a network to evaluate the risk of initiating hostilities.     

Sick and edgy: walk-counting as a metric of epidemic spreading on networks

A network structure metric is herein suggested for the investigation of the behaviour of epidemic spreading processes in general network-structured populations. This simple measure, based on the algebraic powers of the adjacency matrix associated with the network in question, is shown to admit a heuristic interpretation as a representation of a spreading process similar to standard epidemic models. It is further shown that the values of this metric may be of use in understanding the dynamic pattern of epidemic spread on networks of greatly varying structural properties (e.g. the degree distribution, the assortativity/dissortativity and the clustering).     

Interaction intimacy organizes networks of antagonistic interactions in different ways

Interaction intimacy, the degree of biological integration between interacting individuals, shapes the ecology and evolution of species interactions. A major question in ecology is whether interaction intimacy also shapes the way interactions are organized within communities. We combined analyses of network structure and food web models to test the role of interaction intimacy in determining patterns of antagonistic interactions, such as host–parasite, predator–prey and plant–herbivore interactions. Networks describing interactions with low intimacy were more connected, more nested and less modular than high-intimacy networks. Moreover, the performance of the models differed across networks with different levels of intimacy. All models reproduced well low-intimacy networks, whereas the more elaborate models were also capable of reproducing networks depicting interactions with higher levels of intimacy. Our results indicate the key role of interaction intimacy in organizing antagonisms, suggesting that greater interaction intimacy might be associated with greater complexity in the assembly rules shaping ecological networks.     

Business process modelling with stochastic networks

Modelling and analysis of business processes is critical to identify current business processes and to understand the contributions of new processes to the system. The quality of the results obtained by modelling and analysis significantly influences the success of business process reengineering (BPR). Therefore, a constant development in techniques used in business process modelling (BPM) and business process analysis (BPA) is necessary. However, when these proposed techniques are analysed it becomes obvious that they repeat the same basic approach, although a few offer different visions. In BPM development studies, the use of time-activity scheduling is often considered secondary (even neglected). The reason for this is that process modelling may be considered as project management and remain under this label. Many organizations may use these techniques in managing their daily activities if the maturity level and the simplicity of project management techniques are considered. It also enables the modelling of stochastic situations, otherwise not possible to do by any BPM method. In this study an existing business process with network properties is analysed using project scheduling techniques. Thus, business processes are described as networks, modelled and timed by network properties and stochastically analysed using GERT, a project based process scheduling method. Finally the results obtained by GERT are examined using the PERT-path approach.     

Parameter estimation of an aeroelastic aircraft using neural networks

Application of neural networks to the problem of aerodynamic modelling and parameter estimation for aeroelastic aircraft is addressed. A neural model capable of predicting generalized force and moment coefficients using measured motion and control variables only, without any need for conventional normal elastic variables or their time derivatives, is proposed. Furthermore, it is shown that such a neural model can be used to extract equivalent stability and control derivatives of a flexible aircraft. Results are presented for aircraft with different levels of flexibility to demonstrate the utility of the neural approach for both modelling and estimation of parameters.     

Tensor methods for parameter estimation and bifurcation analysis of stochastic reaction networks

Stochastic modelling of gene regulatory networks provides an indispensable tool for understanding how random events at the molecular level influence cellular functions. A common challenge of stochastic models is to calibrate a large number of model parameters against the experimental data. Another difficulty is to study how the behaviour of a stochastic model depends on its parameters, i.e. whether a change in model parameters can lead to a significant qualitative change in model behaviour (bifurcation). In this paper, tensor-structured parametric analysis (TPA) is developed to address these computational challenges. It is based on recently proposed low-parametric tensor-structured representations of classical matrices and vectors. This approach enables simultaneous computation of the model properties for all parameter values within a parameter space. The TPA is illustrated by studying the parameter estimation, robustness, sensitivity and bifurcation structure in stochastic models of biochemical networks. A Matlab implementation of the TPA is available at http://www.stobifan.org.     

The use of neural networks in understanding and predicting oxidation and corrosion behaviour in advanced energy conversion systems

Abstract

Neural networks can be a useful tool to analyse the oxidation and corrosion behaviour of materials at high temperature. Examples are given of the use of neural network models to analyse datasets of material behaviour after exposure to combustion, gasification and steam atmospheres. The use of networks to identify changes in mechanism, additional significant experimental parameters and the onset of spallation is demonstrated.

The limitations of neural network modelling are briefly discussed. Although they can be trained to fit any existing dataset, care must be taken in using the networks to predict a time sequence of events.     

Coupling human mobility and social ties

Studies using massive, passively collected data from communication technologies have revealed many ubiquitous aspects of social networks, helping us understand and model social media, information diffusion and organizational dynamics. More recently, these data have come tagged with geographical information, enabling studies of human mobility patterns and the science of cities. We combine these two pursuits and uncover reproducible mobility patterns among social contacts. First, we introduce measures of mobility similarity and predictability and measure them for populations of users in three large urban areas. We find individuals'' visitations patterns are far more similar to and predictable by social contacts than strangers and that these measures are positively correlated with tie strength. Unsupervised clustering of hourly variations in mobility similarity identifies three categories of social ties and suggests geography is an important feature to contextualize social relationships. We find that the composition of a user''s ego network in terms of the type of contacts they keep is correlated with mobility behaviour. Finally, we extend a popular mobility model to include movement choices based on social contacts and compare its ability to reproduce empirical measurements with two additional models of mobility.     

Connectivity sustains disease transmission in environments with low potential for endemicity: modelling schistosomiasis with hydrologic and social connectivities

Social interaction and physical interconnections between populations can influence the spread of parasites. The role that these pathways play in sustaining the transmission of parasitic diseases is unclear, although increasingly realistic metapopulation models are being used to study how diseases persist in connected environments. We use a mathematical model of schistosomiasis transmission for a distributed set of heterogeneous villages to show that the transport of parasites via social (host movement) and environmental (parasite larvae movement) pathways has consequences for parasite control, spread and persistence. We find that transmission can be sustained regionally throughout a group of connected villages even when individual village conditions appear not to support endemicity. Optimum transmission is determined by an interplay between different transport pathways, and not necessarily by those that are the most dispersive (e.g. disperse social contacts may not be optimal for transmission). We show that the traditional targeting of villages with high infection, without regard to village interconnections, may not lead to optimum control. These findings have major implications for effective disease control, which needs to go beyond considering local variations in disease intensity, to also consider the degree to which populations are interconnected.     

基于神经网络的离散变结构控制系统

系统研究了基于神经网络的离散变结构控制系统设计方法，提出了几种具体设计方案．神经网络的引入可以使滑模（变结构）控制具备学习与自适应能力，使控制信号得以柔化，从而能够减轻或避免困扰常规滑模控制器的抖振现象，改善控制效果．     

Tracking employment shocks using mobile phone data

Can data from mobile phones be used to observe economic shocks and their consequences at multiple scales? Here we present novel methods to detect mass layoffs, identify individuals affected by them and predict changes in aggregate unemployment rates using call detail records (CDRs) from mobile phones. Using the closure of a large manufacturing plant as a case study, we first describe a structural break model to correctly detect the date of a mass layoff and estimate its size. We then use a Bayesian classification model to identify affected individuals by observing changes in calling behaviour following the plant''s closure. For these affected individuals, we observe significant declines in social behaviour and mobility following job loss. Using the features identified at the micro level, we show that the same changes in these calling behaviours, aggregated at the regional level, can improve forecasts of macro unemployment rates. These methods and results highlight promise of new data resources to measure microeconomic behaviour and improve estimates of critical economic indicators.     

Recent advances in the analysis of behavioural organization and interpretation as indicators of animal welfare

While the incorporation of mathematical and engineering methods has greatly advanced in other areas of the life sciences, they have been under-utilized in the field of animal welfare. Exceptions are beginning to emerge and share a common motivation to quantify ‘hidden’ aspects in the structure of the behaviour of an individual, or group of animals. Such analyses have the potential to quantify behavioural markers of pain and stress and quantify abnormal behaviour objectively. This review seeks to explore the scope of such analytical methods as behavioural indicators of welfare. We outline four classes of analyses that can be used to quantify aspects of behavioural organization. The underlying principles, possible applications and limitations are described for: fractal analysis, temporal methods, social network analysis, and agent-based modelling and simulation. We hope to encourage further application of analyses of behavioural organization by highlighting potential applications in the assessment of animal welfare, and increasing awareness of the scope for the development of new mathematical methods in this area.     

Modelling the propagation of social response during a disease outbreak

Epidemic trajectories and associated social responses vary widely between populations, with severe reactions sometimes observed. When confronted with fatal or novel pathogens, people exhibit a variety of behaviours from anxiety to hoarding of medical supplies, overwhelming medical infrastructure and rioting. We developed a coupled network approach to understanding and predicting social response. We couple the disease spread and panic spread processes and model them through local interactions between agents. The social contagion process depends on the prevalence of the disease, its perceived risk and a global media signal. We verify the model by analysing the spread of disease and social response during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City and 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in Hong Kong, accurately predicting population-level behaviour. This kind of empirically validated model is critical to exploring strategies for public health intervention, increasing our ability to anticipate the response to infectious disease outbreaks.     

数学建模案例的编写与使用

从数学建模案例教学的可能性与必要性出发，本文陈述浙江大学近年来在数学建模系列课程教学过程中编写和使用数学建模教学案例的经验和方法。     

Modelling group navigation: transitive social structures improve navigational performance

Collective navigation demands that group members reach consensus on which path to follow, a task that might become more challenging when the group''s members have different social connections. Group decision-making mechanisms have been studied successfully in the past using individual-based modelling, although many of these studies have neglected the role of social connections between the group''s interacting members. Nevertheless, empirical studies have demonstrated that individual recognition, previous shared experiences and inter-individual familiarity can influence the cohesion and the dynamics of the group as well as the relative spatial positions of specific individuals within it. Here, we use models of collective motion to study the impact of social relationships on group navigation by introducing social network structures into a model of collective motion. Our results show that groups consisting of equally informed individuals achieve the highest level of accuracy when they are hierarchically organized with the minimum number of preferred connections per individual. We also observe that the navigational accuracy of a group will depend strongly on detailed aspects of its social organization. More specifically, group navigation does not only depend on the underlying social relationships, but also on how much weight leading individuals put on following others. Also, we show that groups with certain social structures can compensate better for an increased level of navigational error. The results have broader implications for studies on collective navigation and motion because they show that only by considering a group''s social system can we fully elucidate the dynamics and advantages of joint movements.