中国城市人口规模结构的重构(二)

这是一项涉及中国城市的基础研究。本文整理提供2000年五普口径666个城市的“市人口”数据,并以新的城市人口规模进行了一些城市规模分布的初步分析,试图通过这些基础工作重构我国城市人口的规模结构。     

北京:打造国家中心城市多中心、网络化空间结构

城市空间结构是经济结构的空间投影,认识国家中心城市的空间结构特征,有助于正确把握国家中心城市空间结构的演进规律和提升国家中心城市的运行效率。我国的国家中心城市是城市人口规模最大、行政等级最高、经济发展水平最高的超大城市。城市职能过于集中是导致大城市病的主要原因,多中心、网络化发展是根除大城市病的治本之道。北京作为最高等级中心地的国家中心城市,其多中心城市空间结构初具雏形,单中心集聚问题依然存在。为此,北京应促进产业向多中心集聚和疏解,培育和发展郊区次中心;合理引导人口地区分布,优化人口空间布局;引导各区差异化发展,优化远郊区平原地区开发,并以京津冀为空间载体优化北京城市空间。     

武汉城市圈一体化发展现状与策略研究

本文运用城市首位指数与位序——规模理论,分析武汉城市圈的城市等级规模结构特点,发现武汉城市圈城市首位度很高,中间等级城市数量少,等级规模结构不合理;运用空间相互引力模型测算城市圈内中心城市对周边城市的辐射作用,比较区域间经济联系强度,发现武汉城市圈主要经济联系方向为武汉与东部三个城市及孝感;最后提出了武汉城市圈应从发展副中心城市,以中心城市和相邻城市为依托发展小城镇群和加快城镇化、丰富城市群等级规模等方面着手,更好地推进武汉城市圈一体化有序发展的建议。     

完善重庆二级中心城市对策

从2000年重庆市城镇体系等级规模结构来看,核心城区的人口规模为378.3万人,占重庆市城镇总人口的37.48%;人口规模在20～50万人的只有万州区城区一个,人口规模在10～20万的小城市12个,另外还有16个城镇人口规模大约在5～10万人,其它大约有640个小城镇人口规模在5万人以下,而人口规模在50～100万的大城市缺失.显然,作为一个完整的市域城镇体系,现状最为短缺的是主城以外的二级中心城市.万州、涪陵、合川、江津和永川等城市的现状规模都不大,与主城区还存在巨大的落差,尚无法有效地发挥区域性二级中心城市的功能.     

基于跨城出行联系的城市群等级结构测度与规划建议 ——以长江三角洲城市群核心区为例

基于跨城出行联系测算了长江三角洲城市群核心区域城市体系的等级结构。首先使用手机信令数据识别出长三角城市群核心区域内居民跨城出行联系。不同时段跨城出行联系表达了城市群内部不同类型的功能联系。随后,综合运用5种方法测算了跨城出行联系表达的城市等级。与基于人口规模等级结构相比,基于功能联系的城市群等级结构更具有扁平化特征,基于功能联系的长三角城市群城市等级结构也具有时间维度特征。上海依然是核心城市,杭州市区的等级显著提升,昆山市等城市在跨城功能联系网络中的地位也较高。对照已有城市群相关规划,功能联系维度下高等级的城市主要是部分传统中心城市和部分苏南地区的经济发达的中小城市,一些传统地区中心城市的等级降低。城市等级结构具有空间不平衡特征。     

1985年以来黑龙江省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。分析了1985年至2004年近20年间黑龙江省城市等级规模体系的变动特征．找出了存在的问题．在此基础上提出了优化的对策。     

利用手机信令数据测度城镇体系的等级结构北大核心

文章提出了从手机信令数据中获取城市之间的联系流,用以测度城镇体系等级结构的方法。首先使用手机信令数据测算城市之间的人流联系,以人流联系反映城市之间的相互作用,从联系流量、联系流向两个维度测算了城市中心性,提出了吸引量法、优势流法两种分析城镇体系等级结构的方法。其次以江西省昌九区域为案例,基于手机信令数据,分别使用吸引量法、优势流法测度了城镇体系等级结构,并与传统"位序—规模"法得出的结果进行了比较。研究结果表明,基于手机信令数据的吸引量法、优势流法能较好地分析城市中心性,有助于识别出城市人口规模不大,但在区域内城市相互作用中具有较高中心性的城市等级,这两种方法适用于城镇体系现状分析和规划实施评估。     

基于GIS的人口反演及空间归位初探

人口数据是城乡规划管理的基础。现行人口数据因统计部门、口径、方式的不同而有较大差异,特别是人口数据不能在空间上展现,难以满足城乡规划及管理的相关需求。在GIS支持下,根据一定空间范围内的基础设施利用量与人口数量成正比的关系,反演城市人口和研究其空间分布特征,对城乡规划及城市管理具有重要作用。     

对上海新一轮城市总体规划的几点分析

针对十几年来上海经济、社会、人口与城市发展遇到的问题和出现的新特点 ,为了实现产业结构与布局的调整 ,实现中心城区人口的有效疏散和郊区城市化的快速发展 ,建设现代化的国际性大都市 ,上海制定并通过了新一轮的城市总体规划。与 1986年的城市规划相比 ,新规划有以下几个重要特点。城镇体系的等级结构与布局趋于合理新的城镇体系则由中心城区———郊区新城 (区、县城 )———中心镇———一般镇四级层次组成 ,增加了中等城市规模的郊区新城和小城市规模的中心镇 ,等级体系更趋完善 ,空间布局也趋向合理。结合产业结构与布局调整和郊区…     

对城市人口规模问题的再认识

本文通过分析我国现阶段城市人口规模预测所面临的统计口径、人口流动性和城市区域化等问题．分析了城市规模在内涵上的三个变化，并提出城市人口规模预测的思路。     

The spatial extent of producer service markets: Hierarchical models of interaction revisited

The traditional view of interaction in spatial markets has been challenged by recent studies of producer service trade in the space economy. These studies find that although city-size and distance influence the direction and spatial extent of interaction, patterns of trade oftentimes counter expectations as trade flows up the urban hierarchy and across large distances. This paper seeks to determine whether the ownership structure of establishments contributes to deviations from the traditional model of hierarchical interaction. Using trade data obtained from surveys of 547 producer service establishments, patterns of trade originating from a five-tier urban hierarchy are examined empirically and evaluated using spatial survivor functions and logit models. The results indicate that the ownership structure of establishments contributes significantly to deviations from expected patterns of interaction. Independently owned establishments have smaller spatial markets and interact more often with smaller sized cities. Nonindependently owned establishments, in contrast, trade down and up the urban hierarchy in a manner much less sensitive to distance.     

City-size distributions and the world urban system in the twentieth century

"In this paper we trace and interpret changes in the geographical pattern and city-size distribution of the world's largest cities in the twentieth century. Since 1900 the geographical distribution of these cities has become increasingly dispersed; their city-size distribution by rank was nearly linear in 1900 and 1940, and convex in 1980. We interpret the convex distribution which emerged following World War 2 as reflecting an economically integrated but politically and demographically partitioned global urban system. Our interpretation of changes in size distribution of cities emphasizes demographic considerations, largely neglected in previous investigations, including migration and relative rates of population change."     

快速增长时期中小城市空间扩展及规划应对——以山东省招远市为例

针对现有文献在城市空间扩展的合理性评价和规划控制方面较为薄弱,以及对中小城市关注不够的事实,本文以山东半岛地区中等城市——招远为例,首先分析快速增长时期招远城市空间扩展的过程,接着采用定性与定量相结合的方法评价了其空间扩展的合理性,最后探讨了促进城市空间合理扩展的规划对策,以期为中西部地区中小城市空间扩展提供借鉴。     

集群结构与我国城镇化的协调发展

城镇化是我国经济和社会发展无法回避的必由之路。其健康发展的基本标志为 ,大、中、小城市的协调发展 ,尽可能避免许多发达国家和发展中国家在城市化过程中萌发的诸如 :失业加剧、疾病流行、贫民窟泛滥、环境污染严重、犯罪率升高和生态条件恶化等城市病。大城市具有天然的集聚和规模经济效益。如果任凭市场机制发挥作用 ,就会重蹈人家的覆辙。但如果我们继续将规划调控的思路局限于限制大城市规模的扩张 ,又将无济于事。事实证明 ,这一策略不但无法控制城市规模 ,反而在某种程度上强化了其摊大饼式发展的倾向。采用逆向思维———从分析影响中小城市竞争力的产业组织和城市间的竞争合作关系入手 ,利用复杂系统的自组织原理阐述城市内部的企业集群和城市外部的城市集群的发展演进规律 ,从而证明不同规模的城市 (镇 )往往组成一个有机的、整体的集群结构 ,具有明显的等级、共生、互补、高效和严格“生态位”的“耗散系统”。提出了我国高速城镇化进程中 ,中小城市 (包括卫星镇和农村小城镇 )“超越”经济规模快速成长 ,有序引导移民、确保大城市空间结构转型和中小城市协调发展的基本途径和对策选择     

The Dynamics of Indonesia's Urbanisation, 1980-2006

This study examines continuity and change in patterns of Indonesia's urbanisation during the boom economy until the decentralisation era, using data mainly from the National Population Census 1980-2000 and from the Village Potential (PODES) 2006. Urbanisation in Indonesia is still characterised by a heavy concentration of the urban population in a few large cities, notably the Jakarta Metropolitan Area (JMA), which might reflect an integration of Jakarta into the global economy. It might also reflect an interurban disparity, between large and smaller cities. The population on the fringes of large cities is growing rapidly, while in the inner cities it is increasing at a very low rate of growth. Urban spatial development in Java is shaping belts, which connect many of the large cities. The intermediate cities and small towns on the outer islands have a relatively higher population growth rate compared with those in Java, which might suggest that those towns and cities are playing a more significant role in regional development.     

中小城市体育场馆适宜性设计研究

随着中国社会的快速发展，中小城市体育场馆逐步受到重视并正在成为建设的重点。由于中小城市在人口规模．经济水平、技术能力等方面与大城市存在差异．其体育场馆不能简单套用大城市的设计建设模式。本文通过实际调研与分析．提出适宜性是中小城市体育场馆设计建设的核心思想．并结合实际工程项目．从规划布局适宜性、功能规模适宜性、技术适宜性与形象创作适宜性四个方面阐释中小城市体育场馆的设计对策，旨在探索适合中国现实需求的中小城市体育场馆科学发展之路。     

Does the high-speed rail network improve economic growth?

This paper discusses whether high-speed rail (HSR) construction in China promotes urban economic growth, and it uses social network analysis (SNA) and a panel threshold model. We provide robust evidence that HSR networks have non-linear effects on the urban economy. Urban location and transportation hub status change as the density of HSR networks increases, and from 2008 to 2017, the national average annual growth rate of the weighted degree centrality (WDC) was 44.93%. We find the WDC and betweenness centrality (BC) have positive influences on urban economic growth. However, HSR network expansion reduces the economic benefits of HSR because the marginal contribution of new HSR lines to economic productivity decreases and there is a crowding out effect caused by excessive agglomeration. HSR networks can promote the economy of Western China to a greater extent and can promote the economy more in small cities than in large and medium-sized cities. These findings can help the government rationalize its strategy for designing HSR lines in various regions.     

City-size distribution and the size of urban systems

"This paper is an analysis of the city-size distribution for thirty-five countries of the world in 1975; the purpose is to explain statistically the regularity of the rank-size distribution by the number of cities included in the urban systems. The rank-size parameters have been computed for each country and also for four large urban systems in which several population thresholds have been defined. These thresholds seem to have more influence than the number of cities included in the urban system on the regularity of the distribution." The data are from the U.N. Demographic Yearbook.     

Provincial variation of urbanization and urban primacy in China

Compared to other developing countries, China has a low urbanization level as a result of government policy to control urban development since 1949. However, there is much regional variation in urbanization and urban primacy among its 26 provinces. This paper attempts to analyze the provincial variation in urbanization and urban primacy of China in 1978 by factor analysis and regression techniques. In China, government policy does not only slow down the overall rate of urbanization but also has profound influence on provincial variation in urbanization and urban primacy. Low urban primacy in the eastern provinces is mainly the result of the urbanization policy of controlling the development of large cities that favours the development of small and medium cities. The spatial industrial policy of decentralizing industries from the coastal provinces to interior provinces encouraged high urbanization and urban primacy in the western interior provinces of China.This paper was developed while Xueqiang Xu was a Visiting Scholar of the Centre of Urban Studies and Urban Planning in 1982–83.     

On the size distribution of cities: an economic interpretation of the Pareto coefficient

"Both the hierarchy and the stochastic models of size distribution of cities are analyzed in order to explain the Pareto coefficient by economic variables. In hierarchy models, it is found that the rate of variation in the productivity of cities and that in the probability of emergence of cities can explain the Pareto coefficient. In stochastic models, the productivity of cities is found to explain the Pareto coefficient. New city-size distribution functions, in which the Pareto coefficient is decomposed by economic variables, are estimated."