跨流域水库群最优调供水过程耦合研究

为了有效描述和求解跨流域水库群最优调供水过程,本文建立了基于0-1规划方法的水库群最优化调度模型,统一考虑并最终确定了最优调供水过程。为减少模型单次求解的变量数目,同时增加算法全局搜索的能力,本文借用逐步优化算法思想,对传统粒子群进行改进,提出了逐步优化粒子群算法(PRA-PSO)对模型进行求解。最后,通过中国北方某大型跨流域调水工程的实例研究分析了模型的合理性和有效性。最优调供水过程的确定不仅可为采用隐随机优化方法确定跨流域水库群调水规则和供水规则提供最优化样本过程,而且对跨流域调水工程调度运行评价具有重要意义。     

跨流域水库群最优调供水过程耦合研究

为了有效描述和求解跨流域水库群最优调供水过程,本文建立了基于0-1规划方法的水库群最优化调度模型,统一考虑并最终确定了最优调供水过程。为减少模型单次求解的变量数目,同时增加算法全局搜索的能力,本文借用逐步优化算法的思想,对传统粒子群进行改进,提出了逐步优化粒子群算法（PRA-PSO）对模型进行求解。最后,通过中国北方某大型跨流域调水工程的实例研究分析了模型的合理性和有效性。最优调供水过程的确定不仅可为采用隐随机优化方法确定跨流域水库群调水规则和供水规则提供最优化样本过程,而且对跨流域调水工程调度运行评价具有重要意义。     

A Negotiation-Based Multi-Objective, Multi-Party Decision-Making Model for Inter-Basin Water Transfer Scheme Optimization

The planning and management decisions often involve multiple objectives and multiple parties with conflicting interests due to the complexity of inter-basin water transfer systems. In this paper, the objectives, the groups involved and the corresponding conflicting interests that characterize water transfer decisions are analyzed. A multi-party, multi-objective decision/bargaining model based on the ??satisfaction principle?? is developed for inter-basin water transfer system decision-making. In order to obtain an ideal multi-party decision, bargaining is first broken down into two stages, and then decision alternatives are chosen using fuzzy pattern recognition. This model is simple, and it is more adaptable for solving practical multi-objective and multi-party decision problems. Finally, an inter-basin water transfer scheme optimization example is demonstrated by using the developed model.     

VIKOR法在城市供水方案优选中的应用

为有效解决城市供水方案选择多属性复杂决策难题,以郑州市龙湖引黄供水工程为例,提出利用多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)进行方案优选。通过与其他优选方法进行比较发现,当VIKOR法中的决策系数分别取0.2,0.5,0.8时,得到的最优供水方案与改进密切值法所得的结论相同,且与实际工程实施方案一致。特别是当决策系数为0.8时,VIKOR法与改进密切值法得到的方案排序结果一致性达到83.3%,表明将VIKOR法运用到城市供水方案优选中是切实可行的。该方法具有原理简单、结果稳定、分辨率高等特点,在水利工程方案的优选与评价方面有较为广泛的应用前景。     

Conjunctive use of Inter-Basin Transferred and Desalinated Water in a Multi-Source Water Supply System Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis

Water shortage has forced coastal cities to seek multi-source water supply with a focus on inter-basin water and desalinated seawater. The differences of water supply costs pose a challenge in the optimal use of multiple water resources. This paper aims to understand the impact of desalinated seawater’s variable costs on multi-source water supply through a cost-benefit analysis method based on a multi-objective optimization model, considering different combination scenarios of desalination yield, streamflow condition, seawater desalting plant (SDP) scheme, water shortage index and utilization ratio of the SDP. The application in the coastal city Tianjin, China shows that the desalination yield has an impact on the tradeoff between the water shortage index and the total water supply cost and an optimal desalination yield can be determined at a turning point. And where the turning point appears is influenced by the utilization ratio of the SDP and streamflow conditions of inter-basin water. Moreover, a single centralized SDP is found to have an overall lower water supply cost than several decentralized small-sized SDPs. Lower water shortage index leads to higher cost, and the unit decrease of shortage index will need more added cost when the shortage index is very low. This method is proven to be effective in identifying the best conjunctive use of inter-basin water and desalinated seawater, which can contribute to relieve urban water shortage.     

Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project

This paper proposes a new water transfer triggering mechanism for multi-reservoir system to divert water from abundant to scarce regions with a constant diversion flow in an inter-basin water transfer-supply project. Taking into account of the uncertain nature of inflow, the storage of reservoir is taken as a signal for decision-making to indicate water abundance or water scarcity. In this study, a set of rule curves based on storage of donor reservoir and storage of recipient reservoir are used together to determine when to start water transfer. To initiate water diversion to each recipient reservoir effectively, several water transfer rule curves of the donor reservoir are set for each recipient reservoir respectively in the multi-reservoir system with one donor reservoir and several recipient reservoirs, which is the main difference in comparison with other water transfer triggering mechanisms. In addition, a systematic framework is developed to integrate the water transfer rule curves with hedging rule curves to simultaneously solve the water transfer and water supply problems, since they interact with each other during the operation process. In order to verify the utility of the new water transfer triggering mechanism, an inter-basin water transfer-supply project in China is used as a case study and an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm (IPSO) with a simulation model is adopted for optimizing the decision variables. The results show that the proposed water transfer triggering mechanism can improve the operation performances of the inter-basin system.     

跨流域供水水库群联合调度规则研究

针对跨流域供水水库群联合调度存在的主从递阶结构,提出了调水规则和供水规则相结合的跨流域供水水库群联合调度规则。其中,调水规则由一组基于各水库蓄水量的调水控制线表示,根据其间的相对位置关系,决定是否调水,调水量如何分配等;供水规则由各库供水调度图表示,对应于不同用水户的限制供水线将水库的兴利库容分为若干调度区。建立了适合于主从递阶结构的水库群联合调度二层规划模型,采用并行种群混合进化的粒子群算法对模型进行求解。中国北方某大型跨流域调水工程的实例研究证明了模型的合理性和有效性。     

Research on Scale Demonstration Technology of Inter Basin Water Transfer Project in Agricultural Irrigation

Inter-basin water transfer projects are powerful measures for resolving the uneven distribution of water resources, but their scale directly affects the associated investment and income. Therefore, determining the scale of an inter-basin water transfer project is essential. Based on the inter-basin agricultural water transfer project in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, combined with the suitable development scale of the irrigation area with the joint allocation of existing water sources, this research proposes a technique to demonstrate the scale of an inter-basin water transfer project based on dynamic trial feedback under the condition of the optimization method of despiking of the groundwater allocation; the water transfer project scale is demonstrated for each section in reverse order. According to the water demand prediction results in the study area, the scale of water transfer project BC is demonstrated, and the scale of water transfer project AB is demonstrated on the basis of the BC scale. The final AB and BC water transfer scales decrease by 15% and 13%, respectively; compared with the conventional method under the premise that the water supply guarantee rate is 75%. When the water is transferred, the process is stable, and the utilization rate of the canal is high, thereby saving investment funds and facilitating project scheduling and management.

     

跨流域调水工程供水调度运行初探

跨流域调水工程是我国的大型基础设施建设,其供水调度是一个极其复杂的问题,涉及运行机制、技术运用、市场运作等多种问题。结合对跨流域调水工程调度特点和我国跨流域调水工程存在问题的分析,提出了跨流域调水工程应实行政府管理与市场运作双重运行机制．应在遵循利益最大化原则的同时,兼顾区域和谐原则、国家利益和个体利益相结合的原则和公益性与经营性的统一．并据此提出了跨流域调水工程供水调度的研究思路。     

基于变异系数法的灰色关联决策模型在城市供水方案优选中的应用

针对城市供水方案多属性,多指标的特点,采用变异系数赋权法结合灰色关联理论,通过计算评价方案与理想方案间的优属度,建立了城市供水方案优选模型。应用该模型对郑州市引黄供水方案进行优选,结果表明该模型计算简便,结果客观可靠,为城市供水方案优选提供了科学依据。     

Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater with Inter-Basin Transfer Approach: Case Study Piranshahr

Disregarding water as a key sustainable development has led to the water crisis in Iran. This problem is the biggest factor for marginalizing the planning and long-term management of water. The sustainable development policies in water resources management of IRAN require consideration of the different aspects of management that each of them demands the scientific integrated programs. Optimal use of inter-basin surface and groundwater resources and transfer of surplus water to adjacent basins are important from different aspects. The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient optimization model based on inter-basin water resources and restoration of outer-basin water resources. In the proposed model the three different objectives are as follow supplying inter-basin water demand, reducing the amount of water output of the boundary of IRAN and increasing water transfer to adjacent basins (Urmia Lake basin) are considered. In this model, water allocation is done based on consumption and resources priorities and groundwater table level constraints. In this research, the non-dominate sorting genetic algorithm is used for performing the developed model regarding the complexity and nonlinearity of the objectives and the decision variables. The optimal allocation of each water resources and water transfer to adjacent basin can be determined by using of proposed model. Optimal allocation policy presented based on optimal value and planning horizon. The results show that we can transfer considerable volume of water resources within the basin for restoration the outside basin and prevent the great flow of water by the border rivers applying the optimal operation policy.     

跨区域调水多水源水库群系统供水联合优化调度多情景优化模型研究与应用

含跨区域调水的多水源水库群系统调度决策中需协调保障供水效益与降低供水成本的多目标矛盾,在综合考虑本地水资源与外调水资源供水相对成本差异的基础上,根据引调水成本的相对高低提出供水成本递增的多情景分层优化模型,以降低系统总缺水率为优化目标、限定外调水量为约束条件,分情景求解多水源联合供水方案并分析目标间矛盾关系。以南水北调东线受水区江苏段及洪泽湖、骆马湖为研究对象的水资源系统调度为应用实例,计算结果表明:(1)两湖的本地水资源能满足平水及以上年型的用户用水需求;(2)当洪泽湖遭遇偏平及以上量级来水,且相对骆马湖来水丰沛时,启用洪泽湖向骆马湖调水可降低公共用户及骆马湖周边用户缺水量;(3)在现行协议供水量条件下,引调江水可解决洪泽湖、骆马湖枯水年型组合下的缺水问题;(4)多年平均条件下,引调0.6倍协议引江水量是均衡考虑降低系统缺水及引江水成本的折中方案。模型可为跨区域调水系统中多种水资源工程水量联合调度决策提供决策参考。     

基于河湖水系连通的水资源配置框架

在气候变化、经济持续高速发展的背景下,水资源形势日趋严峻。通过河湖水系连通工程改变自然水系连通情况,建立起大范围、跨流域的水资源统筹调配格局,进行水资源时间和空间上的重新分配,实现多源互补、丰枯调剂,成为解决我国水资源配置问题的新途径。相比传统水资源配置,基于河湖水系连通的水资源配置更多考虑跨流域(区域)水资源合理利用,涉及更广泛的区域范围和利益群体。基于河湖水系连通的水资源配置的基本特征和原则,本次研究提出新型水资源配置模式——权益保障与均衡发展模式,在考虑不同区域、行业、部门利益的前提下,突出权益保障与均衡发展。同时,探讨了对河湖水系连通后水资源配置中的主要技术与方法,包括跨流域水循环过程模拟技术、调水区与受水区丰枯遭遇分析方法、受水区可供水量计算方法等问题。     

A Novel Optimization Method for Multi-Reservoir Operation Policy Derivation in Complex Inter-Basin Water Transfer System

Joint operation of multiple reservoir system in inter-basin water transfer-supply project is a complex problem because of the complicated structure and cooperated operation policy. The combination of high-dimensional, multi-peak and multiple constraints makes it incredibly difficult to obtain the optimal rule curves for multi-reservoir operation. In view of this, we constructed a joint optimization operation model, considering both water supply and transfer, and proposed the concept of “shape constraints”. To obtain the solution of this high-dimensional optimization model, a novel progressive optimum seeking method, namely Progressive Reservoir Algorithm-Particle Swarm Optimization (PRA-PSO), is presented based on the nature of progressive optimization algorithm (POA) and standard particle swarm optimization (PSO). The water transfer project in northeast China, consisting of three routes eight reservoirs, is selected as a case study. The results show that (1) PRA-PSO is yielding much more promising results when compared with other optimization techniques; (2) shape constraints would narrow the scope of feasible solution area but increase the convergence of algorithm; (3) because of the strong interaction between water transfer and water supply action, the progressive setting of PRA-PSO should be in accordance with the order of reservoir water transfer. The case study indicates the novel optimization method could effectively increase the chance of jumping out of local optimal points, thereby searching for better solutions.     

含支线调蓄的调水系统水库群联合调度

针对调水工程与其支线调蓄工程所面临的复杂水库群联合调度问题,以陕西省引汉济渭调水工程及其支线调蓄工程焦岩水库、玉带河水库构成的联合调度系统为工程实例,运用拓扑概化方式揭示了各水源之间的水利－水量联系,并由此构建了联合调度模型,采用协同粒子群算法求解了10 a长系列调度,提出了单一水库多目标供水方案,解析了耦合系统补给调水效果。结果表明：支线调蓄工程能够在均衡多目标供水效益的基础上,通过耦合系统有效增加补给调水量,显著改善调水过程。     

基于组合决策的黄河流域水量调度方案评价方法

为定量评价黄河流域水量调度方案的优劣,选出水资源综合效益最大的方案,结合黄河流域实际特点,选择可供水量、利津入海水量、龙羊峡水库期末水位等10项指标为评价体系,在模糊优选法、灰色关联分析法、集对分析法等评价方法的基础上建立了组合决策模型,综合考虑各方案在不同评价方法下的优劣顺序,帮助决策者做出准确判断和选择。结果表明,组合决策方法克服了单一决策方法的不足,能够综合考虑各评价指标的重要性,较为科学合理地确定出最优方案。     

A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP,FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects

In sustainable water resources management, it is essential to rank inter-basin water transfer projects. This task is difficult due to many different conflict criteria, complex relations among criteria and various judgments of decision makers. In this paper, an integrated multiple attribute group decision making method consists of ANP (Analytical Network Process), fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy max-min set methods is proposed for evaluating water transfer projects. A set of over 60 criteria in social, environmental and economic sectors are used for ranking four water transfer projects in Karun River based on three decision maker judgments. A key novelty of the proposed methodology is its ability to model both complex relations among different criteria in water management and the influence of decision maker judgments’ weights on the final ranking in group decision making problem. The procedure starts by obtaining the priority of water transfer projects and the weight of each decision maker judgments by employing ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS, respectively. These weights are used as inputs in the fuzzy max-min set method. Then the effects of decision maker weights on the final ranking are determined in fuzzy environment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of decision makers’ weights has been conducted. The results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for group decision making problems by considering different criteria and decision makers’ weights.     

引江济淮工程（河南段）多目标水量优化调度

引江济淮工程（河南段）涉及河道、闸泵、管道和调蓄水库,约束条件复杂,常规的优化调度算法难以搜索可行解,求解效率低。选用受水区缺水率平均值最小、泵站总抽水量最小和受水区缺水率标准差最小作为目标函数,从供水保障、供水成本和公平性角度构建多目标水量优化调度模型。基于可行搜索思路,结合逆序演算和顺序演算过程对约束条件进行处理,引入决策系数,通过映射关系使搜索空间保持在可行域中,结合多目标非支配排序遗传算法（non-dominated sorting genetic algorithms,NSGA-II）进行求解,得到Pareto最优解集,并采用熵权法进行方案优选。结果表明,基于可行搜索的NSGA-II算法能够有效求解复杂调度系统的多目标优化问题,综合考虑多个目标的最优方案相对单目标方案更加合理,结果可为引江济淮工程（河南段）运行管理提供决策支撑。     

The water–energy nexus: energy use for water supply in China

China’s strategy to meet increasing water demand is to increase the use of inter-basin transfer water and unconventional water. This study evaluates the energy requirements of this strategy by disaggregating and quantifying the regional energy use for water supply in 2020 and 2030; the energy use in 2014 is calculated to represent the present situation. We find that the energy use for water supply in 2014 amounted to 81 billion kWh. This value is expected increase to 90 and 109 billion kWh by 2020 and 2030, respectively. In 2030, the urban domestic sector will overtake the agricultural sector as the most energy-intensive sector, with major contribution from inter-basin transfer water.