Cost-effectiveness of extending screening mammography guidelines to include women 40 to 49 years of age

BACKGROUND: Screening mammography is recommended for women 50 to 69 years of age because of its proven efficacy and reasonable cost-effectiveness. Extending screening recommendations to include women 40 to 49 years of age remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of screening mammography in women of different age groups. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis done using Markov and Monte Carlo models. PATIENTS: General population of women 40 years of age and older. INTERVENTIONS: Biennial screening from 50 to 69 years of age was compared with no screening. Screening done every 18 months from ages 40 to 49 years, followed by biennial screening from ages 50 to 69 years, was compared with biennial screening from ages 50 to 69 years. MEASUREMENTS: Life-expectancy, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Screening women from 50 to 69 years of age improved life expectancy by 12 days at a cost of $704 per woman, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,400 per year of life saved. Extending screening to include women 40 to 49 years of age improved life expectancy by 2.5 days at a cost of $676 per woman. The incremental cost-effectiveness of screening women 40 to 49 years of age was $105,000 per year of life saved. On the basis of a multiway sensitivity analysis, there is a 75% chance that screening mammography in women 50 to 69 years of age costs less than $50,000 per year of life saved, compared with a 7% chance in women 40 to 49 years of age. CONCLUSION: The cost-effectiveness of screening mammography in women 40 to 49 years of age is almost five times that in older women. When breast cancer screening policies are being set, the incremental cost-effectiveness of extending mammographic screening to younger women should be considered.     

Work of the Norwegian Nurses'Association in elderly care

Norway has a high average life expectancy and, in general, a high standard of living. However, older people requiring nursing and care provision do not enjoy the same quality of life and living standards as the rest of the population. In this article, the author looks more closely at what the Norwegian Nurses' Association has done specifically to improve the care of elderly people, and what results have been achieved.     

Computerized quality-of-life screening in an oncology clinic

A 3-year prospective cohort study was conducted to estimate the life expectancy free of dementia (dementia-free life expectancy) in a representative sample of older persons living in an urban Japanese community. For the persons aged 65 years and older, who were not demented at the baseline survey in 1988, mortality and incidence rates of dementia were calculated. At the age of 65 years, males showed a total life expectancy of 18 years, including 16 years free of dementia, and females showed a total life expectancy of 23 years, including 18 years without dementia. At 65 years, the dementia-free life expectancy represented 89% of the total life expectancy for males and 79% for females. Total life expectancy and dementia-free life expectancy were longer among females than among males. However, the life-years with dementia were longer among females. This result would be attributable to a higher incidence of dementia and a lower mortality among females.     

The use of mammography by women aged 75 and older: factors related to health, functioning, and age

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Mammographic screening for breast cancer is of uncertain clinical benefit for women 75 years of age and older. Some have argued against instituting routine screening in this age group, noting that disability and shorter life expectancy may diminish the desirability and cost-effectiveness of screening. We sought to determine the extent to which health, functioning, and age influence mammography use in this cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study of a representative sample of women in the US aged 75 and older (n = 2352) who participated in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. MEASURES: Information about general health, level of functioning, medical history, age, and various sociodemographic characteristics elicited in the survey was linked with subjects' Medicare bills for 1991 and 1992 to ascertain patterns of mammography use. RESULTS: Overall, 26.7% of the women had mammograms during the 2-year period. Advanced age was associated with a decreased likelihood of receiving a mammogram. This did not reflect simply the decline in health and functioning that may accompany aging; those aged 85 and older were less likely to receive mammograms than those in the 75 to 79 age group, controlling for general health, medical history, functional status, and sociodemographic factors (adjusted OR = .41; 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.64). ADL limitations were also associated independently with decreased mammography use. For example, controlling for age, women with any limitations in Activities of Daily Living were 0.71 times as likely to have mammograms as women without ADL limitations (95% CI = 0.59 to 0.85). However, several comorbid conditions, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and a history of myocardial infarction were not significantly related to mammography use. CONCLUSIONS: Within the cohort of women aged 75 and older, more advanced age and impaired functional status both substantially reduce the likelihood of mammography use. The extent to which this reflects patients' informed decisions, physicians' judgments, or other factors remains to be explored.     

Questions for societies with "Third Age" populations. The Extension-of-Life Working Group, The Gerontological Society of America

By 2030, the number of people aged 65 and over in the United States will total 70.2 million, 20% of the U.S. population, making the older population a major consumer of goods and services. The demands of this growing group are already affecting the medical professional, changing the mix of patients, conditions treated, and what the profession and society consider acceptable outcomes. Medical education will have to adjust to these new demands by training in the diagnosis and treatment of older persons, by equating successful management of chronic conditions with curing illnesses or fixing hurts, and by dealing with the inevitability of death. Also, however, medical education should train students to understand that the rapid aging of the population has the potential to affect almost every human and societal arrangement and every social and economic institution, raising a host of ethical, moral, scientific, social, and economic questions. The Gerontological Society of America (GSA) has convened an informal working group to explore the issues raised by the extension of human life expectancy. The multidisciplinary group, which has 13 members from academia and the GSA, held its first meeting in May 1997, when it laid out the issues to be discussed in future meetings. To help frame the discussions, the group adopted the concept of the "Third Age," a time in the life course when for most people the basic work of parenting is done, when, under current arrangements and definitions, people are not heavily relied on for production (that is, a time when people for different reasons leave paid, full-time jobs), and when few positive roles are recognized. The group's discussions will explore sets of interrelated questions raised by longer life expectancy and the larger number of older people. These questions can be considered in five general themes: the further extension of human life expectancy, research choices, societal vision and values, global aging, and economies and Third Age populations. These questions are raised in the paper, and in coming months the group will discuss their implications.     

The effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. A decision analysis model

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening with CA 125 and transvaginal sonography. DESIGN: Decision analysis was used to examine the no-screen compared with the screen strategy. SETTING: Estimates of cancer incidence, survival, and life expectancy were derived from population-based data and clinical series. SUBJECTS: A cohort of 40-year-old women of all races and residing in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: A one-time screening intervention. The criterion standard for diagnosis of ovarian cancer was evaluation with exploratory laparotomy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Average years of life expectancy gained by women in the screened group. RESULTS: Screening for ovarian cancer with a combination of CA 125 and transvaginal sonography increases the average life expectancy in the population by less than 1 day. CONCLUSIONS: Given the limited effect on overall life expectancy, it is unlikely that mass screening for ovarian cancer with CA 125 and transvaginal sonography would be an effective health policy.     

Clinical guideline, part 2. Screening for thyroid disease: an update. American College of Physicians

PURPOSE: To review information on the benefits of screening with a sensitive thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) test for thyroid dysfunction in asymptomatic patients seeking primary care for other reasons. This paper focuses on whether screening should be aimed at detection of subclinical thyroid dysfunction and whether persons with mildly abnormal TSH levels can benefit. DATA SOURCES: A MEDLINE search for studies of screening for thyroid dysfunction and of treatment for complications of subclinical thyroid dysfunction. STUDY SELECTION: Studies of screening with thyroid function tests in the general adult population or in patients seen in the general office setting were selected (n=33). All controlled studies of treatment in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism were also included (n=23). DATA EXTRACTION: The prevalence of overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction, the evidence for the efficacy of treatment, and the incidence of complications in defined age and sex groups were extracted from each study. DATA SYNTHESIS: Screening can detect symptomatic but unsuspected overt thyroid dysfunction. The yield is highest for women older than 50 years of age: In this group, 1 in 71 women screened could benefit from relief of symptoms. Evidence of the efficacy of treatment for subclinical thyroid dysfunction is inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Even though treatment for subclinical thyroid dysfunction is controversial, office-based screening to detect overt thyroid dysfunction may be indicated in women older than 50 years of age. Large randomized trials are needed to determine the likelihood that treatment will improve quality of life in otherwise healthy patients who have mildly elevated TSH levels.     

Monitored isoniazid prophylaxis for low-risk tuberculin reactors older than 35 years of age: a risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: Isoniazid chemoprophylaxis effectively prevents the development of active infectious tuberculosis. Current guidelines recommend withholding this prophylaxis for low-risk tuberculin reactors older than 35 years of age because of the risk for fatal isoniazid-induced hepatitis. However, recent studies have shown that monitoring for hepatotoxicity can significantly reduce the risk for isoniazid-related death. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of monitored isoniazid prophylaxis for low-risk tuberculin reactors older than 35 years of age. DESIGN: A Markov model was used to compare the health and economic outcomes of prescribing or withholding a course of prophylaxis for low-risk reactors 35, 50, or 70 years of age. Subsequent analyses evaluated costs and benefits when the effect of transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to contacts was included. MEASUREMENTS: Probability of survival at 1 year, number needed to treat, life expectancy, and cost per year of life gained for individual persons and total population. RESULTS: Isoniazid prophylaxis increased the probability of survival at 1 year and for all subsequent years. For 35-year old, 50-year-old, and 70-year-old tuberculin reactors, life expectancy increased by 4.9 days, 4.7 days, and 3.1 days, respectively, and costs per person decreased by $101, $69, and $11, respectively. When the effect of secondary transmission to contacts was included, the gains in life expectancy per person receiving prophylaxis were 10.0 days for 35-year-old reactors, 9.0 days for 50-year-old reactors, and 6.0 days for 70-year-old reactors. Costs per person for these cohorts decreased by $259, $203, and $100, respectively. The magnitude of the benefit of isoniazid prophylaxis is moderately sensitive to the effect of isoniazid on quality of life. The hypothetical provision of isoniazid prophylaxis for all low-risk reactors older than 35 years of age in the U.S. population could prevent 35,176 deaths and save $2.11 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Monitored isoniazid prophylaxis reduces mortality rates and health care costs for low-risk tuberculin reactors older than 35 years of age, although reductions for individual patients are small. For the U.S. population, however, the potential health benefits and economic savings resulting from wider use of monitored isoniazid prophylaxis are substantial. We should consider expanding current recommendations to include prophylaxis for tuberculin reactors of all ages with no contraindications.     

Factors influencing sexual activity after prostatectomy: a prospective study

Between 16 and 30 per cent of all prostatectomy patients become impotent after an operation for benign prostatic hyperplasia. Since the surgical technique does not seem to be the factor responsible for such a serious problem, more accentuated by the fact that this operation is becoming increasingly frequent with the increase in life expectancy, an assessment of 15 patients before and after prostatectomy is presented. With a statistical analysis of a structured interview (including a mini-Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory test before and after the operation) 3 main differentiating factors emerged between the potent and the impotent group: 1) the level of anxiety exhibited by the patient, 2) whether the patients received an explanation about the surgery and its outcome prior to the operation and 3) the patient's general satisfaction with life.     

Prognostic factors in idiopathic (primary) osteomyelofibrosis

BACKGROUND: Prognostic variables for idiopathic (primary) osteomyelofibrosis (IMF) are ill-defined because of the lack of large control studies based on uniform diagnostic criteria. METHODS: A retrospective clinicopathologic study was performed on 250 consecutively recruited patients (115 males and 135 females) with an established diagnosis of IMF. In contrast to previous studies, the current study cohort encompassed the full spectrum of initial to advanced stages of the disease process according to laboratory data and particularly histology. Because of the relatively high patient age on admission (median, 66.5 years), relative survival rates with corresponding life expectancies and disease specific life loss were calculated. Moreover, a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to segregate the study patients into subgroups with significantly different prognosis. RESULTS: Analysis of the life expectancy and the proportion of deaths attributable to IMF showed a global reduction in life expectancy of 31%. Further calculation disclosed a consistently greater impact of disease in older patients. Age, hemoglobin level on admission, and leukocyte and thrombocyte counts remained as the most relevant parameters for prognosis in multivariate consideration (CART analysis) and facilitated a clear-cut separation into three risk groups. The life expectancy of low risk patients was approximately 10 times higher than that of high risk patients (22.07 years vs. 2.25 years). CONCLUSIONS: These results are in keeping with the assumption that features signaling bone marrow insufficiency are associated with a worsening of survival. Generalization, indicated by myeloid metaplasia, can occur at every stage, even in so-called hypercellular phases of IMF. Conversely, myelofibrosis alone is not necessarily predictive of poor survival.     

What's different about older people

Older people can be regarded as a marginalised group within society from a number of perspectives including that of health. When it comes to the use of medication older people have suffered from a double whammy. Not only are they more at risk from the adverse effects of drugs but also their involvement in clinical trials has been limited so that rational prescribing both to maximise benefit and to reduce risk has been problematic. Their special problems have been recognised formerly by the Department of Health in its NSF for Older People [National Service Framework for Older People. Department of Health, London (2001a)], [Medicines and Older People. Implementing medicines-related aspects of the NSF for Older People. Department of Health (2001b)]. Early studies focussed on compliance, the avoidance of poly-pharmacy and the high prevalence of adverse effects of drugs and the reasons for this. Studies in long-stay patients showed dramatic differences in pharmacokinetics between such older people and young healthy volunteers. Initially such differences were ascribed to age alone and the overall message became "start low and go slow". Studies in healthy older people then revealed that age differences in drug metabolism were, as a rule, not so marked although clearance of renally excreted drugs was reduced in line with the age associated decline in renal function. Including older people in clinical trials poses challenges. Many traditional trialists do not have ready access to older people, co-morbidity and poly-pharmacy are common and most people feel reluctant to ask older people to take part in complex and potentially hazardous trials. Concern about compliance is unwarranted. Adverse events may be more serious. Thus in a younger patient postural hypotension may make a subject unsteady but in an older subject the unsteadiness may lead to a fall, the fall to a fracture, and the fracture to poor recovery. The choice of end-points is crucial. Although reduction of clinical events is clearly important, effects on quality of life become more important as natural life expectancy reduces. Although regulatory bodies state that they now evidence of effectiveness in older people before registration there are still many examples of arbitrary and illogical upper age limits in clinical trials.     

Unrelated donor bone marrow transplantation for chronic myelogenous leukemia: a decision analysis

BACKGROUND: Chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) is an indolent but ultimately fatal disease. Because the natural history of CML varies and quality of life with CML may be excellent until shortly before death, deciding whether and when to pursue unrelated donor bone marrow transplantation is often difficult. OBJECTIVE: To compare early transplantation, delayed transplantation, and no transplantation for patients with chronic-phase CML on the basis of discounted, quality-adjusted life expectancy. DESIGN: A markov model comparing different strategies was constructed. This model considers patient age, quality of life, risk aversion, and the competing risks for CML progression and transplant toxicity. SETTING: Therapeutic decision at the time of diagnosis of CML. PATIENTS: The base case is a 35-year-old patient with intermediate-prognosis CML. Younger and older patients with better and worse prognoses are also evaluated. INTERVENTION: Early transplantation, delayed transplantation, and no transplantation. MEASUREMENTS: Quality-adjusted, discounted life expectancy. RESULTS: For patients with newly diagnosed CML, transplantation within the first year provides the greatest quality-adjusted expected survival, although this benefit decreases with increasing patient age. For a 35-year-old patient with intermediate-prognosis CML, transplantation within the first year results in 53 more discounted, quality-adjusted years of life expectancy than does no transplantation. This finding is robust even with varying baseline assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the use of early unrelated donor bone marrow transplantation for most patients with CML.     

Benign tumors of the pediatric spine: statistical notes

Consensus exists that a do-not-attempt-resuscitation order (DNAR) is appropriate if a resuscitation attempt is futile. Less agreement exists when this point is reached. We investigated the influence of three major considerations for in-hospital DNAR orders: expected survival probability after resuscitation, prospects of the patients' current condition without a cardiac arrest and the patients' autonomous decision not to want resuscitation. We calculated an expected survival probability according to two multi-morbidity prediction scores for each patient, assuming the event of cardiac arrest. The prospects of the current condition without a cardiac arrest was estimated by the patients' physician, in terms of life expectancy and quality of life (level of dependency after discharge and pain). The patients' preference was documented from the medical records. A total of 470 patients were included in the study. Fifty-eight patients (12%) had a DNAR-order, 11 of these patients (19%) wanted no resuscitation. The patients' prospects (life expectancy, dependency after discharge), and age proved to be independently associated with the presence of a DNAR order. The odds ratio (OR) for the presence of a DNAR order was 37 (CL 14-107) for an estimated life expectancy less than 3 months, 13 (CL 4-41) for a life in a nursing home and four (CL 2-12) for an age of 80 years and older. Expected survival probability after resuscitation and pain were not independently associated with a DNAR order. We conclude that resuscitation is considered futile on the basis of the patients' age and prospects without cardiac arrest and that the impact of expected survival probability on these decisions is small.     

Endoscopic palliative treatment of tumors of the gastrointestinal tract

Patients with nonresectable gastrointestinal tumors have a life expectancy of a few months only. Effective palliative treatment has to ensure a good quality of life with minimal morbidity and mortality. Esophageal carcinoma: Endoscopic intubation or stent implantation guarantee a prompt improvement of dysphagia with minimal morbidity and mortality in esophageal carcinoma. Only in cervical or noncircumferential stenosis laser therapy is preferable. Obstructive jaundice: Metal stents offer the best quality of life after palliative treatment of malignant obstructive jaundice. However, in patients with bad general conditions and a short life expectancy a pigtail catheter is less expensive. Colorectal cancer: Laser therapy and cryosurgery offer uncomplicated nonsurgical therapy in rectal carcinoma. Stents in the colorectum have a high complication rate. Endoscopic palliative treatment of gastrointestinal tumors can be performed with minimal morbidity and mortality. However, it is essential that a surgeon is involved in the decisionmaking between endoscopic or operative treatment.     

The impact of peptic ulcer disease and infection with Helicobacter pylori on life expectancy

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge about the influence of H. pylori-related disease on life expectancy might affect physician behavior in dealing with such disease. The aim of this study was to assess how life expectancy is influenced by H. pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease. METHODS: The declining exponential approximation of life expectancy was used to model the effects of H. pylori and various peptic ulcer disease conditions on life expectancy. Deaths from peptic ulcer and gastric cancer were determined from the Vital Statistics of the United States. H. pylori prevalence rates were derived from the existing literature. RESULTS: Cure of active peptic ulcer increases life expectancy by 2.3 yr in persons aged 40-44 yr and 121 days in persons aged 70-74 yr. More substantial impact occurs in complicated ulcer, with increases in life expectancy ranging between 26.1 and 6.3 yr. Primary prevention of H. pylori could increase life expectancy by 190 days in those aged 40-44 yr and 26 days in 70-74-yr-old subjects. CONCLUSION: The benefit of ulcer cure or H. pylori prevention diminishes as age advances. Cure of ulcers in young patients or in those who have sustained complications results in an appreciable increase in life expectancy. Successful primary prevention of H. pylori in selected populations could substantially increase life expectancy.     

Life expectancy of mentally retarded persons in Canadian institutions

Data obtained from Statistics Canada were presented on the mortality level and expectancy of life for profoundly retarded and severely and moderately retarded persons in Canadian institutions for the years 1966 through 1968. Previous studies of mortality statistics were reported in mortality rates, average age at death, and crude death rates which are affected by the age distribution of the population involved. The very young and the very old are underrepresented in institutions, and thus these measures are not as accurate as life expectancy tables, which present the number of years expected to live, are independent of age distribution, and provide a reliable statistical measure for future replication and international comparisons. Retarded persons in institutions are living longer than previously, but their life expectancy does not meet that of the general population. Estimates of life expectancy for this population are vital for planning purposes.     

Prostate-specific antigen in the diagnosis of organ-confined treatable prostate carcinoma

Prostate cancer is now the most common cancer and the second most common cause of death from cancer among men. Several studies have shown a frequency of autopsy-detected cancer of 40% in men over 50 years of age. In contrast, the lifetime probability of prostate cancer being diagnosed clinically is only 8%. Thus histologically documented prostate cancer only becomes clinically relevant if the tumors are > 0.5 cm3 and the life expectancy exceeds 10 years. Therapy with curative intention is only possible for organ confined disease. Because disease specific survival is about 80-90% after 10 years for conservative treatment of organ confined disease, early detection of prostate cancer is useful for patients with a life expectancy > 10 years. Organ confined prostate cancer is usually asymptomatic. The use of prostate specific antigen (PSA) combined with digital rectal examination (DRE) results in a 2-3 fold increase in prostatic carcinoma detection rate, especially of organ confined disease, by PSA. In men with a minimally elevated PSA-value of 4-10 ng/ml (Hybritech Assays), 25% will have a prostatic carcinoma regardless of the finding of the DRE, which would have reached clinical significance in the follow-up. The indication for biopsy should be established at an early date. There is no support for the common opinion that early detection programs detect clinically unimportant cancers. 95% of tumor volumes are > 0.5 cm3. Furthermore only 3-5% of subjects show prostate cancer in detection programs though 8% will develop clinical symptoms of prostate cancer during their lifetime. This difference is a reason for longitudinal programs with PSA and DRE control once a year, as proposed by the American Cancer Society and the American and Canadian Urological Association, in contrast to other health care organizations, which would wait with general screening until data from prospective randomized trials with beneficial effects of screening are available. To introduce prostate cancer therapy with curative intention for symptomatic patients as well, the cancer should be detected below a PSA level of 10 ng/ml. Insufficient specificity of PSA (2-4 patients have to undergo biopsies to detect one cancer patient) is still an unsolved problem.     

Processing of expected and unexpected monetary performance outcomes in healthy older subjects.

The feedback-related negativity (FRN), an event-related potential (ERP) component reflecting feedback processing in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), has consistently been found to be reduced in healthy aging, whereas behavioral findings regarding age-related changes in decision making and feedback-based learning are inconsistent. This study aimed to elucidate similarities and differences between healthy younger and older subjects in the processing of monetary performance feedback focusing on effects of reward expectancy. Eighteen younger and 20 older subjects completed a feedback learning task, in which a rule could be learned to predict the reward probabilities associated with particular stimuli. Older subjects showed evidence of slower learning than younger subjects. In both younger and older subjects, the amplitude difference between nonreward and reward in the FRN time window was larger for unexpected than expected outcomes, driven by modulations of negative feedback ERPs. Consistent with previous findings, the amplitude difference tended to be generally reduced in older subjects. P300 amplitude was larger for reward than nonreward in both groups, and interactions between valence and probability indicated that only the P300 for reward was modulated by expectancy. Despite general changes of outcome-related ERPs in healthy aging, older subjects show evidence of preserved effects of expectancy on the processing of monetary feedback. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Influence of disease prognosis and age on the radiation risk from diagnostic nuclear medicine (bone scintigraphy as an example)

AIM: Of the study was to assess the influence of the patient age and the survival of patients undergoing bone scintigraphy on the calculations of the theoretical lifetime loss. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The evaluated data set included 216 patients undergoing a bone scan for the first time in 1980. From 182 patients a study end point (either the date of death, or existing registration in the German resident office on the 31.12.1995) was obtained. The theoretical life time loss was based on the formalism previously presented by Schicha und Wellner (13). RESULTS: In 74% of the examined patients a malignant disease was present. 28% of the patients had died within one year of the examination. At the end of the follow-up period, of at least 15 years, 58% of the patients were deceased. The theoretical lifetime loss due to radiation exposure within this specified patient group was estimated to be 0.152 d/mSv. Assuming an age distribution of the general population and statistically derived life expectancy, this value should be 0.437 d/mSv. CONCLUSION: The estimates regarding the risk of diagnostic procedures using ionizing radiation should take into account the limited life expectancy of patients in hospitals.