Technical and economic performance of residential solar water heating in the United States

This paper examines the regional, technical, and economic performance of residential rooftop solar water heating (SWH) technology in the U.S. It focuses on the application of SWH to consumers in the U.S. currently using electricity for water heating, which currently uses over 120 billion kWh per year. The variation in electrical energy savings due to water heating use, inlet water temperature and solar resource is estimated and applied to determine the regional “break-even” cost of SWH where the life-cycle cost of SWH is equal the life-cycle energy savings. For a typical residential consumer, a SWH system will reduce water heating energy demand by 50–85%, or a savings of 1600–2600 kWh per year. For the largest 1000 electric utilities serving residential customers in the United States as of 2008, this corresponds to an annual electric bill savings range of about $100 to over $300, reflecting the large range in residential electricity prices. This range in electricity prices, along with a variety of incentives programs corresponds to a break-even cost of SWH in the United States varying by more than a factor of five (from less than $2250/system to over $10,000/system excluding Hawaii and Alaska), despite a much smaller variation in the amount of energy saved by the systems (a factor of approximately one and a half). We also consider the relationships between collector area and technical performance, SWH price and solar fraction (percent of daily energy requirements supplied by the SWH system) and examine the key drivers behind break-even costs.     

Analysis of ground source heat pumps with horizontal ground heat exchangers for northern Japan

Computer simulation and analysis of a ground source heat pump system with horizontal ground heat exchangers operating in heating (max 5.5 kW) and cooling (max 3.3 kW) mode was carried out for a typical residential house, with 200 m² of living space, located in Sapporo (Japan). In spite of high electricity rate, the ground source heat pump system is more beneficial alternative for space heating than an oil furnace and an electric resistance system. Besides, the heat pump technology offers relatively low thermal degradation of the ground environment, lower cost of heating and cooling, higher operating efficiency than electric resistance heating or air-source heat pump and is environmentally clean, i.e. without greenhouse gas emission, if the electricity is generated from renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar. The use of the cooling mode can provide further benefits like a shorter investment payback and human thermal comfort in summer. As a result, application of horizontal loops for new and retrofit residential and commercial use in northern Japan is feasible particularly in farmland areas.     

Performance of a dual-purpose solar continuous adsorption system

A conceptual design and performance of a dual-purpose solar continuous adsorption system for domestic refrigeration and water heating is described. Malaysian activated carbon and methanol are used as the adsorbent–adsorbate pair. The heat rejected by the adsorber beds and condensers during the cooling process of the refrigeration part is recovered and used to heat water for the purpose of domestic consumption. In a continuous 24-h cycle, 16.9 MJ/day of heat can be recovered for heating of water in the storage tanks. In the single-purpose intermittent solar adsorption system, this heat is wasted. The total energy input to the dual-purpose system during a 24-h operation is 61.2 MJ/day and the total energy output is 50 MJ/day. The latter is made up of 44.7 MJ/day for water heating and 5.3 MJ/day for ice making. The amount of ice that can be produced is 12 kg/day. Using typical value for the efficiency of evacuated tube collector of water heating system of 65%, the following coefficient of performances (COP's) are obtained: 44% for adsorption refrigeration cycle, 73% for dual-purpose solar water heater, 9.1% for dual-purpose solar adsorption refrigeration and 82.1% for dual-purpose of both solar water heater and refrigerator.     

Natural gas consumption and climate: a comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United States

Separate models correlating natural gas (NG) consumption to climate have been developed for the residential and commercial sectors of the 50 U.S. states. The models relate a population-weighted average temperature to state per capita NG consumption on a monthly basis. The majority of the models have Pearson correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 supporting the use of temperature as the sole independent parameter. The sensitivities of the models to a 1°C increase in temperature, are compared for each state and the monthly sensitivity to climate integrated over the entire U.S. is investigated for a range of temperature perturbations. The predicted impact of a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature on U.S. consumption is an 8.1% decrease in the residential sector and a 5.9% decrease in the commercial sector. In terms of the net consumption normalized over the study period (1984–1993) this corresponds to a 111.8 TWh decrease in the residential sector and a 47.0 TWh decrease in the commercial sector. The largest change for a single month occurs in January when consumption would decrease 19.7 TWh in the residential sector and 7.4 TWh in the commercial sector.     

MODERGIS application: Integrated simulation platform to promote and develop renewable sustainable energy plans,Colombian case study

This research presents the MODERGIS Integrated Simulation's Platform as a tool to promote and develop renewable energy plans under sustainability criteria, in order to increment the participation of renewable technologies in the national “energy mix” and shows an application to Colombia as a case study. Potential zones of solar and wind energy and productive areas were determined for bio-energies, by means of a geographical information system which simulated energy scenarios influenced by climatic phenomena up to the year 2030. Results yield potentials of 26,600 MW in wind energy and 350,000 MW in solar energy. Bioenergy potentiates in a sustainable way of 366,310 km per biomass, 291,486 km in African palm, 9,667 km in sugar cane. These scenarios were simulated in a supply/demand with time horizons up until 2030, including an analysis of the effects on the energy systems of the El Niño Southern Oscillation atmospheric component (ENSO). Finally, in order to obtain an appropriate mix of renewable sources that could be introduced in the national energy mix, the Multi-Criteria Analysis method VIKOR was used, allowing to perform performing 5151 possible combinations of renewable projects; the optimal selection corresponds to 600 MW from wind power, 740 MW solar photovoltaic and 660 MW solar thermoelectric. Giving these results to the new scene allowed for incrementing the participation of renewable technologies up to a 0.23% in the current year and up to a 7% of the “energy mix” in the year 2030.     

A feasibility study on solar-wall systems for domestic heating – An affordable solution for fuel poverty

A Solar Wall Heating (SWH) system was developed to provide low cost space heating in traditional solid stone-walled tenement buildings in Scotland. The SWH system uses the internal solid walls to store the solar heat collected during the day and heat the bedrooms during the night.A physical laboratory model with attached solar hot water system and a computational model of it were developed to investigate the dynamic performance of the system in use and test the cost benefits of iterations of its modes of use. The temperatures throughout the wall structure were measured under the variant solar input of a 24-h cycle. An unsteady state CFD model was developed and validated using the measured data and setup to test a number of key variables of the solar wall heating system in use. These included optimisation control strategies and maximisation strategies for the collection and storage of solar heat under various conditions. This paper presents the modelled results of the solar thermal storage and optimisation system and strategies for internal solid stone walls in a typical Scottish tenement flat in the Scottish climate.In addition the study analysed the solar availability, heating demand and domestic water supply of two typical dwellings based on two reliable methods: (a) a purpose built dynamic thermal model and (b) data collected in previous studies.The study demonstrated that the solar collection of current solar hot water systems can be improved upon so that, even in Scotland, more solar power can be harvested to contribute not only to domestic hot water, but also domestic space heating, particularly in buildings occupied over 24 h with heavy thermal mass. The cost analysis of the system in use suggested a 16 year payback period for such a system for a tenement flat.     

End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention.This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%).     

Efficiency of PET reactors in solar water disinfection for use in southeastern Brazil

Solar water disinfection using the solar water disinfection (SODIS) method is not a well-known technique in Brazil. The objective of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of a solar energy concentrator made of cardboard and covered with aluminium foil in heating water in transparent and black-backed PET reactors and to compare the efficiency of these reactors with those that are used on asbestos roofing. The efficiency of the method was evaluated for a year with monthly in loco readings and through analysis of the local weather where the study was performed. The black-backed PET reactors in the solar concentrator were better at heating water than any of the other treatments, both on strong and moderate weather days. On weak weather days, however, these reactors did not heat the water enough for solar disinfection to take place. Disinfection of polluted river water samples was evaluated in black-backed solar reactors. The most probable number (MPN) of thermotolerant coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli in water collected from the river were measured using the multiple tube fermentation technique before and after solar treatment. River water samples exposed to 3 h of solar radiation on moderate weather days had 99.9% inactivation of faecal coliforms (E. coli) when the water reached more than 50 °C (average 6 h peaks of radiation – 685.6 W/m²). However, inactivation of faecal coliforms was not observed in reactors exposed to solar radiation in the same weather conditions on asbestos roofing. A computer simulation of water heating was carried out using a dynamic fluid model based on the diffusion equation. The computational model produced temperature values similar to the experimental curves (r² = 0.99). The results suggest that using a specific radiation data set, the behaviour of water temperature in the PET reactors can be accurately predicted. Therefore, it may be possible to make predictions about water purification by the SODIS method in southeastern Brazil, where there are similar weather conditions.     

Application of Sayigh “Universal Formula” for global solar radiation estimation in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria

In recent years, renewable energy utilisation in various applications has increased significantly. Applications involving solar thermal energy include air and water heating whilst solar photovoltaic systems have been installed to provide electricity for households in urban and rural areas of the developing economies. The solar radiation data are not easily available for many countries and is therefore estimated most of the times. In this work is presented the results of evaluating the Sayighr “Universal formula” for estimating the global solar radiation in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria with Umudike (longitude 7.33°E, latitude 5.29°N) as a case study. The levels of the global solar radiation which ranged from 1.99 kWh to 6.75 kWh, computed with the method are in agreement with those of earlier authors indicating that the method can be used for reproducing signatures of global solar radiation in the region when actual measurements are not available.     

Technical and economic assessment of grid-independent hybrid photovoltaic–diesel–battery power systems for commercial loads in desert environments

Solar photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system technology is a hot topic for R&D since it promises lot of challenges and opportunities for developed and developing countries. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) being endowed with fairly high degree of solar radiation is a potential candidate for deployment of PV systems for power generation. Literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in KSA consume an estimated 10–45% of the total electric energy generated. In the present study, solar radiation data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) have been analyzed to assess the techno-economic viability of utilizing hybrid PV–diesel–battery power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical commercial building (with annual electrical energy demand of 620,000 kW h). The monthly average daily solar global radiation ranges from 3.61 to 7.96 kW h/m². NREL's HOMER software has been used to carry out the techno-economic viability. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 80 kWp PV system together with 175 kW diesel system and a battery storage of 3 h of autonomy (equivalent to 3 h of average load), the PV penetration is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, US$/kW h) from the above hybrid system has been found to be 0.149 $/kW h (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/L). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the operational hours of diesel generators decrease with increase in PV capacity. The investigation also examines the effect of PV/battery penetration on COE, operational hours of diesel gensets for a given hybrid system. Emphasis has also been placed on unmet load, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (for different scenarios such as PV–diesel without storage, PV–diesel with storage, as compared to diesel-only situation), cost of PV–diesel–battery systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Potential contribution of geothermal energy to climate change adaptation: A case study of the arid and semi-arid eastern Baringo lowlands,Kenya

The impacts of recurrent droughts have increased vulnerability and reduced the adaptive capacity of the people living in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALS) of Kenya. Current interventions are short-term and curative in nature, hence unsustainable. Some of the most arid and semi-arid lands are located within the Kenyan Rift system, which has an estimated geothermal potential of about 7000 to 10,000 MWe, out of which only 200 MWe has been developed, and about 5000 MWe planned by 2030. Recent power sector reforms have built institutional structures that will accelerate development of geothermal energy. The paper analyses the potential use of geothermal energy resources in eastern Baringo lowlands between Lake Bogoria and Silali prospects, which has an estimated potential of >2700 MWe, in creating the necessary adjustments needed to adapt to the impacts of recurrent droughts by locals. Opportunities for direct and indirect uses of geothermal energy exist in climate vulnerable sectors, such as, agriculture, fisheries, water, livestock production as well as alternative income generating activities such as, tourism, micro enterprises, aloe, honey and beeswax production, fabric dyeing and others using resources sourced from within a 50 km radius. The possibility of accelerated geothermal development and proposed utilisation schemes in causing maladaptation if unsustainably implemented is also discussed. The paper draws a Lindal diagram adapted to the study area showing potential utilisation in the above sectors, and new flow diagram showing potential for cascaded use of geothermal hot water through the different processes. An estimated capacity of 100 MWt and 100 MWe can be used in the potential utilisation schemes discussed in this article to meet local adaptation and lighting needs and much less in a cascaded process. Potential barriers and possible solutions are also discussed. The study concludes that geothermal energy is a vital option for adaptation in the study area if sustainably used.     

Understanding energy systems change in Canada: 1. Decomposition of total energy intensity

Between 1995 and 2010, the total energy intensity (E/GDP, PJ/Gross Domestic Product in 2002$) of the Canadian economy declined by 23% or − 2.64 MJ/$. To understand why, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMD-I) method was used to decompose a large body of government statistical data supporting the observed E/GDP decline. The analysis shows that (a) 48% (1.27 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an inter-sector structural change in the economy (i.e. an increased contribution to the total GDP of the low energy-using commercial and institutional sector compared with the high energy-using manufacturing and heavy industry sectors); (b) 24% (0.62 MJ/$) was attributed to the impact of the Canadian GDP growing faster than population; (c) 22% (0.58 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an overall decrease in business energy intensity. A deeper analysis of business sectors shows a positive impact of 0.4 MJ/$ from increased energy intensity in the oil and gas sector, offset by a 0.98 MJ/$ decline due to energy intensity declines in the other business sectors; (d) 6.3% (0.17 MJ/$) of the decline was associated with an improvement in the energy intensity of households, mostly from residential energy use rather than personal transportation energy use. These results provide insights for policy makers regarding those aspects of the Canadian economy that contribute to, or work against, efforts to transform energy systems toward sustainability.     

Large-scale bioenergy production from soybeans and switchgrass in Argentina: Part A: Potential and economic feasibility for national and international markets

This study focuses on the economic feasibility for large-scale biomass production from soybeans or switchgrass from a region in Argentina. This is determined, firstly, by estimating whether the potential supply of biomass, when food and feed demand are met, is sufficient under different scenarios to 2030. On a national level, switchgrass has a biomass potential of 99 × 10⁶ (1.9 EJ) to 243 × 10⁶ tdm (4.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. Soybean (crude vegetable oil content) production for bioenergy has a potential of 7.1 × 10⁶ (0.25 EJ) to 13.8 × 10⁶ tdm (0.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. The most suitable region (La Pampa province) to cultivate energy crop production is selected based on a defined set of criteria (available land for biomass production, available potential for both crops, proximity of logistics and limited risk of land use competition). The available potential for bioenergy in La Pampa ranges from 1.2 × 10⁵ to 1.8 × 10⁵ tdm/year for soybean production (based on vegetable oil content) and from 6.3 × 10⁶ to 18.2 × 10⁶ tdm/year for switchgrass production, depending on the scenario. Bioenergy chains for large-scale biomass production for export or for local use are further defined to analyse the economic performance. In this study, switchgrass is converted to pellets for power generation in the Netherlands or for local heating in Argentina. Soybeans are used for biodiesel production for export or for local use. Switchgrass cultivation costs range from 33–91 US$/tdm (1€ = 1.47 US$ based on 19 February 2008). Pellet production costs are 58–143 US$/tdm for local use and 150–296 US$/tdm until delivery at the harbour of Rotterdam. Total conversion costs for electricity in the Netherlands from switchgrass pellets range from 0.06–0.08 US$/kWh. Heating costs in Argentina from switchgrass pellets range from 0.02–0.04 US$/kWh. Soybean cultivation costs range from 182–501 US$/tdm depending on the scenario. Biodiesel production costs are 0.3–1.2 US$/l for local use and 0.5–1.7 US$/l after export to the Netherlands. Key parameters for the economic performance of the bioenergy chains in La Pampa province are transport costs, cultivation costs, pre-processing and conversion costs and costs for fossil fuels and agricultural commodities.     

Design and performance of the solar-powered floor heating system in a green building

In the green building of Shanghai Research Institute of Building Science, the evacuated tubular solar collectors with a total area of 150 m² were installed to provide heating for the covered area of 460 m². The floor heating coil pipes were made of high-quality pure copper with the dimension of Φ 12 × 0.7 mm. Under typical weather condition of Shanghai, the average heating capacity was 25.04 kW during the working hours from 9:00 to 17:00, which was sufficient to keep indoor thermal environment. The average electric COP of the floor heating system was 19.76 during the system operation. Compared with the widely used air-source heat pump heating systems with the electric COP of 3.5 in Shanghai, the solar-powered floor heating system shows great potential in energy conservation in winter. With respect to the whole heating period, the solar fraction was 56%. According to the performance analysis of the system with ambient parameters, it was observed that the system performance could be greatly enhanced with the increase of daily solar insolation. However, the system performance varied slightly with average ambient temperature. Compared with average ambient temperature, daily solar insolation had a more distinct influence on the performance of the solar-powered floor heating system.     

The potential biomass for energy production in the Czech Republic

Biomass production is a promising alternative for the Czech Republic's (CZ) agricultural sector. Biomass could cover the domestic bio-energy demand of 250 PJ a⁻¹ (predicted for 2030), and could be exported as bio-fuels to other EU countries. This study assesses the CZ's biomass production potential on a regional level and provides cost–supply curves for biomass from energy crops and agricultural and forestry residues. Agricultural productivity and the amount of land available for energy crop production are key variables in determining biomass potentials. Six scenarios for 2030 with different crop-yield levels, feed conversion efficiencies and land allocation procedures were built. The demand for food and fodder production was derived from FAO predictions for 2030. Biomass potential in the CZ is mainly determined by the development of food and fodder crop yields because the amount of land available for energy crop production increases with increasing productivity of food and fodder crops. In most scenarios the NUTS-3 regions CZ020, 31 and 32 provided the most land for energy-crop production and the highest biomass potentials. About 110 PJ a⁻¹, mostly from agricultural and forestry residues, can be provided from biomass when the present Czech agricultural productivity is maintained. About 195 PJ a⁻¹ (105 PJ from energy crops) can be provided when production systems are optimised with regard to fertilizer regimes and 365 PJ a⁻¹ (290 PJ from energy crops) when the yield level of Dutch agriculture is reached. Costs for woody biomass decrease with increasing plantation yield and range between 2.58 and 4.76 € GJ⁻¹. It was concluded that Czech agriculture could provide enough biomass for domestic demand and for export if agricultural productivity is increased.     

Residential building envelope heat gain and cooling energy requirements

We present the energy use situation in Hong Kong from 1979 to 2001. The primary energy requirement (PER) nearly tripled during the 23-year period, rising from 195,405 TJ to 572,684 TJ. Most of the PER was used for electricity generation, and the electricity use in residential buildings rose from 7556 TJ (2099 GWh) to 32,799 TJ (9111 GWh), an increase of 334%. Air-conditioning accounted for about 40% of the total residential sector electricity consumption. A total of 144 buildings completed in the month of June during 1992–2001 were surveyed. Energy performance of the building envelopes was investigated in terms of the overall thermal transfer value (OTTV). To develop the appropriated parameters used in OTTV calculation, long-term measured weather data such as ambient temperature (1960–2001), horizontal global solar radiation (1992–2001) and global solar radiation on vertical surfaces (1996–2001) were examined. The OTTV found varied from 27 to 44 W/m² with a mean value of 37.7  W/m². Building energy simulation technique using DOE-2.1E was employed to determine the cooling requirements and hence electricity use for building envelope designs with different OTTVs. It was found that cooling loads and electricity use could be expressed in terms of a simple two-parameter linear regression equation involving OTTV.     

Situation and outlook of solar energy utilization in Tibet,China

The near-exponential rise in tourist numbers and accelerating economic growth have challenged Tibetan energy supply and threaten its peculiar environment and valuable ecosystem. Exploitation of pollution free solar power may medicate this demand for energy. Here we shall provide a review of solar power development in Tibet. This region has a near inexhaustible source of solar energy due to its average annual radiation intensity of 6000–8000 MJ/m², ranking it first in China and second after the Sahara worldwide. Currently, Tibet has 400 photovoltaic power stations with a total capacity of nearly 9 MW. In addition, 260,000 solar energy stoves, passive solar house heating covering 3 million square meters, and 400,000 m² of passive solar water heaters are currently in use in Tibet. Although Tibet places first in applying solar energy in China, solar energy faces big challenges from hydroelectric power and the absence of local know-how. The new power generation capacity in Tibet's “11th Five-Year (2006–2010)” Plan focuses primarily on hydropower, PV power stations being relegated to a secondary role as supplementary to hydropower. Here it will be argued that this emphasis is incorrect and that solar energy should take first place in Tibet's energy development, as it is crucial in striving for a balance between economic development, booming tourism, and environmental protection.     

Assessment of environmental and economic costs of rural household energy consumption in Loess Hilly Region,Gansu Province,China

Due to poverty, serious soil erosion and shortage of rural household energy in Loess Hilly Region, Gansu Province, China, excessive consumption of biofuel has become a critical factor underlying eco-environment degeneration. Data on rural household energy use was obtained by questionnaires, and based on substitutable analysis, environmental and economic costs under different energy consumption structures were estimated using a quantitative model. The results show that annual energy consumption per household is 2112.44 kgce and per capita 428.59 kgce, a low level. The total annual energy consumption cost per household is 1925.25 yuan, of which environmental cost is 621.13 yuan and economic cost 1304.52 yuan. Commercial energy has been used widely. The per household annual cash payment for commercial energy is 536.51 yuan, 8.69% of household net income. Exclusive use of solar energy and biogas obviously decreases energy consumption cost, cash payout and energy source availability being the main criteria for household energy choice. To compare with the actual structure of energy usage, there are clear differences in the total cost, environment cost, economic cost and cash payout for households among the four substitutable structures. All costs are lower when biogas and solar energy are used, so this structure is the primary direction that rural energy should adopt in the future.     

A novel thermal water pump for circulating water in a solar water heating system

This research purpose was to perform a parametric study of a novel thermal water pump well fitted in a simulated solar water heating system (SWHS). The SWHS was composed of a heating tank (HT), a hot water storage tank (ST) and an overhead tank (OT). The HT together with a specially designed valve act as a novel thermal water pump that gets power from hot water vapor and air pressure produced by a built-in electric heater in order to transfer heat from the HT to ST. The general operation of this pump has four stages for each cycle: heating, water circulating, vapor circulating and water supplying. The discharge water heads were varied with an increment of 0.25 m from 0.75 to 3 m. According to the experiment, it was found that the pump could operate at an average HT temperature of about 80–95 °C leading to 70–80 °C ST temperatures and 20–35 pumping cycles and consumed 17 MJ energy input during 9-h period. The overall thermal efficiency of the SWHS was 33–42% and the mean pump efficiency was about 0.005–0.011% depending upon the discharge heads.     

The economical and environmental performance of miscanthus and switchgrass production and supply chains in a European setting

The purpose of this study is to analyse the economical and environmental performance of switchgrass and miscanthus production and supply chains in the European Union (EU25), for the years 2004 and 2030. The environmental performance refers to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the primary fossil energy use and to the impact on fresh water reserves, soil erosion and biodiversity. Analyses are carried out for regions in five countries. The lowest costs of producing (including storing and transporting across 100 km) in the year 2004 are calculated for Poland, Hungary and Lithuania at 43–64 € per oven dry tonne (odt) or 2.4–3.6 € GJ^?1 higher heating value. This cost level is roughly equivalent to the price of natural gas (3.1 € GJ^?1) and lower than the price of crude oil (4.6 € GJ^?1) in 2004, but higher than the price of coal (1.7 € GJ^?1) in 2004. The costs of biomass in Italy and the United Kingdom are somewhat higher (65–105 € odt^?1 or 3.6–5.8 € GJ^?1). The doubling of the price of crude oil and natural gas that is projected for the period 2004–2030, combined with nearly stable biomass production costs, makes the production of perennial grasses competitive with natural gas and fossil oil. The results also show that the substitution of fossil fuels by biomass from perennial grasses is a robust strategy to reduce fossil energy use and curb GHG emissions, provided that perennial grasses are grown on agricultural land (cropland or pastures). However, in such case deep percolation and runoff of water are reduced, which can lead to overexploitation of fresh water reservoirs. This can be avoided by selecting suitable locations (away from direct accessible fresh water reservoirs) and by limiting the size of the plantations. The impacts on biodiversity are generally favourable compared to conventional crops, but the location of the plantation compared to other vegetation types and the size and harvesting regime of the plantation are important variables.