An application of systems analysis techniques to the study of reactor seismic safety

Systems analysis is being used in conjunction with structural analysis to study the conservatisms and to provide insights into aspects of reactor seismic safety. An event-tree/fault-tree model of a commercial nuclear power plant is being constructed to determine the probability of release and probabilities of system and component failures caused by possible seismic events. The event-tree/fault-tree model is evaluated using failure data generated by applying the response a component sees to the component's fragility function. The responses are calculated by a structural analysis code using earthquake time histories as forcing functions. The quantification of the event-tree/fault-tree model is done conditional on a given seismic event and the conditional probabilities thus calculated unconditioned by integrating the results over the seismic hazard curve. In this way, most of the dependencies between event failures resulting from the seismic event itself are removed making known fault-tree analysis quentification techniques applicable. The outputs from the computations will be used in sensitivity studies to determine the key calculations and variables involved in seismic analyses of nuclear power plants.     

Seismic response of reactor vessel internals for Korean standard nuclear power plant

This paper presents the development of seismic design criteria for the reactor vessel internals as a part of the standardization programme for the nuclear power plant in Korea. The seismic design loads of the reactor vessel internals are calculated using the reference input motions of reactor vessels taken from Yonggwang nuclear power plant units 3 and 4 which are being constructed in Korea. An overview of analysis related to the basic parameters and methodologies is presented. Also, the response of internal components to the reactor vessel motions is carefully investigated.     

Seismic reliability of electrical power transmission systems

The reliability of electric power transmission systems is important for the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants under a given earthquake loading as it relates to the loss of off site power to the nuclear power plants. Here, a comprehensive model to evaluate the seismic reliability of electric power transmission systems is presented. The model provides probabilistic assessments of structural damage and abnormal power flow that can lead to power interruption in a transmission system under a given earthquake. With the proposed methodology seismic capacities of electrical. equipment are determined on the basis of available test data and simple modeling from which fragility functions of specific substations are developed. Earthquake ground motions are defined as stochastic processes. Probabilities of network disconnectivity and abnormal power flow are assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to the electric power network in San Francisco and vicinity under the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and the probabilities of power interruption are contrasted with the actual power failures observed during that earthquake.     

储液容器地震易损性参数计算

本文介绍了核电厂设备的易损性分析方法以及易损性模型的参数化计算方法。对核电厂中的典型储液容器应急补水箱（ASG水箱）使用Housner质量-弹簧简化模型进行了分析。对ASG水箱的各项易损性参数进行了计算,绘制出其易损性曲线,并得出高置信度低失效概率（HCLPF）值。结果表明：ASG水箱的HCLPF值低于安全停堆地震（SSE）水平,属于抗震能力较低的设备,需在结构上进行加强。     

重要厂用水系统地震情况下可靠性分析

重要厂用水系统是核电厂重要的安全系统之一,其失效概率通常由系统可靠性分析获得。而地震情况下设备的失效概率是地震动峰值加速度的函数,且地震的发生又具有随机性,目前概率安全评价中传统的故障树分析方法对此种情况缺乏足够的处理能力。本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法解决条件概率的问题,针对地震情况系统可靠性分析,提出了评价模型,并对核电厂重要厂用水系统进行了分析计算,得到地震情况下重要厂用水系统的年失效概率为1.46×10^-4。计算结果与设备抗震性能数据符合,验证了分析模型的合理性。     

Plant Risk Effect Analysis Focusing on Digital I&C Equipment Failures

Safety-critical digital systems have been installed in nuclear power plants and thus their safety effect evaluation has become an emerging issue. The multi-tasking feature of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) equipment could increase the risk factor because the I&C equipment affects the actuation of the safety functions in several mechanisms. In this study, we quantify the safety of the digital plant protection system in Korean nuclear power plants based on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology. Fifteen fault-tree models for the digital reactor-trip system and seven for the safety-feature actuation system are constructed and integrated into the plant safety assessment model. The result of the sensitivity study shows the boundaries of a plant risk and the effect of the digital equipment failures on the total plant risk.     

The seismic reliability of VVER-1000 NPP prestressed containment building

The failure probability assessment of the containment building is an essential feature of the Level 2 PSA studies of nuclear power plants. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the methodology of evaluating containment seismic induced probability of failure without containment pressurization. The Loviisa, Finland site is one of the most seismically stable in the world and the numerically evaluated seismic induced failure probabilities are not representative for other sites. In addition, the containment concept described in this paper is not the typical Russian design which uses helical tendons in the cylindrical part of the structure and has a ring girder at the spring line of the structure. So the conclusions reached are applicable only to the containment configuration described in the paper. The geometry of the containment was determined by its preliminary design. The seismic hazard of the plant site was assessed during Level 1 PSA of the Loviisa plant. The initial information for seismic fragility analysis of the containment is the seismic response of the structure. The structural model for response analysis was the stick model. The stress analysis of the containment was carried out using the shell element model. The fragility evaluation of the containment was performed with the PROSAN-program. The structure was modeled as a parallel system consisting of the most heavily stressed elements. The resulting fragility curve gives the conditional probability of failure as a function of peak ground acceleration. The seismic hazard and the fragility were convolved to obtain the annual nonexceedance probability distribution for the collapse frequency of the structure.     

Structural failure probabilities of the HDR-containment

A method to calculate failure probabilities of critical cross sections of containment structures is developed. Uncertainties of structural as well as of material parameters are taken into account. The HDR-containment under shaker loading conditions is utilized as sample structure. This provides the possibility to verify the mechanical i.e. structural model. The failure probabilities are calculated by utilizing the response surface method (RSM) along with advanced simulation procedures. Based on these developments a computational procedure for the evaluation of structural failure probabilities due to earthquake loading is suggested. Failure is defined in terms of exceedance probabilities (first passage problem). For this purpose, a new numerical approach is introduced, which is based on suitable transformations and simulation techniques such as adaptive sampling.     

An estimation method for basemat uplift behavior of nuclear power plant buildings

It is important to accurately estimate the effects of strong earthquake motions on the basemat uplift behavior and structural responses for the seismic design of nuclear power plant buildings. In this paper, an analysis model which describes the soil part using the 3 dimensional FEM was proposed to be used when the ground contact ratio is low, and the validity of this model was confirmed. Furthermore, investigations using the model were carried out where the attaching force under the basemat was taken into account, in order to more realistically estimate the basemat uplift behavior. The effects in the case of the building being embedded were also investigated.     

蒸汽发生器非线性支承系统的抗震能力分析

计算核电厂设备的高置信度低失效概率(HCLPF)抗震能力是地震概率安全评价、地震裕度评价的一个重要步骤。以蒸汽发生器支承为研究对象,建立其详细的非线性有限单元模型,通过逐步增大地面运动水平,反复计算系统的响应,最后得到蒸汽发生器支承的抗震能力,并与通过确定性失效裕度法得到的HCLPF进行比较。结果表明,两者的计算结果差别较大。本文建议对于非线性较强的设备需采用非线性时程分析方法计算设备的HCLPF。     

Introduction to the proceedings of the international seminar on structural reliability of mechanical components and subassemblies of Nuclear Power Plants

Although the integrity and safety of many mechanical components and subassemblies of nuclear power plants are demonstrated by the appropriate design codes and supplementary requirements, such procedures seldom provide guidance as to “how safe” the structures are. By combining the technologies of solid mechanics and probabilistic structural reliability methods, engineers are finding many and varied opportunities to demonstrate margins in terms of probabilities of failure.With reference to the large mechanical system components typical of nuclear power plants, reliability assessments are receiving more emphasis in recent years as evidenced by the increased attention to such reliability-related techniques as failure mode and effects analyses, fault tree analyses, common cause failure analyses, and single point failure analyses. These techniques are ordinarily applied at the outset in a qualitative manner, tracing the casual sequences of potential component failure. The results of these analyses serve as the foundation for more sophisticated probabilistic structural reliability analyses which have the objective of calculating the probability of failure (that is, unreliability) of the system or component in question.     

A model for estimation of reactor spurious shutdown rate considering maintenance human errors in reactor protection system of nuclear power plants

Modeling of spurious activations in safety instrumented systems has been studied for over a decade. The spurious activation of a plant protection system in nuclear power plants (NPPs) leads to increased electricity generation cost. An in-depth view on spurious activation of digital plant protection systems of NPPs for human errors in maintenance tasks is presented in this paper. A new model which considers human errors in maintenance and periodic tests to predict component failure rates is presented. The model has been applied to OPR-1000 reactor protection system for quantification of spurious trip frequency by fault-tree analysis. The major causes of spurious activation in a nuclear reactor protection system are identified. A set of case studies has been performed with the variation of magnitudes of human errors probability and maintenance strategies, in which, the human errors in maintenance are found to significantly influence reactor spurious trip frequency. This study is expected to provide a useful mean to designers as well as maintainers of the digital reactor protection system to improve plant availability and safety.     

核电厂人因可靠性分析中的相关性分析方法研究

人因可靠性分析（HRA）是核电厂风险分析中的重要组成部分,其中人误事件的相关性分析是HRA中必不可少的内容,忽略人误事件间的相关性,将导致低估核电厂的风险水平。本文提出了一种基于D（邓）数和层次分析法-决策试行与评价实验室（AHP-DEMATEL）方法的相关性分析模型。首先,确定两事件间相关性的影响因素及其结构关系,并针对每个影响因素建立相关性等级的隶属度函数及其锚点;其次,利用AHP-DEMATEL方法来确定各影响因素的综合权重;最后,根据实际情况评估各因素的相关性等级并构建D数,并根据D数和综合权重计算出两人因事件的相关性程度及其可信度,通过算例验证了该模型及其方法的有效性。      

大亚湾核电厂反应堆厂房地震响应分析评估

大亚湾核电厂核反应堆厂房的抗震分析基本沿用法国M310型机组的标准分析方法（RCC—G）,对于土-结构相互作用（SSI）效应的考虑,采用简化的阻抗函数法。本文拟采用新的相对精确的基于Green函数的三维连续半空间边界子结构法考虑地基岩土的作用,进行SSI耦合系统的地震响应分析计算,并将计算的楼层反应谱（FRS）同设计值进行比较,对设计方法及其结果的趋向性（偏于安全／或不安全）进行评估。结果表明,与基于三维连续半空间边界子结构法的计算结果相比较,电厂设计偏于安全。     

核电厂地震概率安全评价中的电气设备易损度计算

随着福岛事故的发生,核电厂外部事件概率安全评价工作的重要性被各国核安全当局所认同。而地震,作为核电厂最为主要的外部事件,其对应的概率安全评价工作便更为人们所重视。易损度计算是完成地震概率安全评价的关键技术环节,其结果将被使用作概率安全评价事故序列模型的输入条件。因此,易损度计算的准确性和正确性对地震概率安全评价工作最终结论的影响也就不言而喻了。本文首先总体性介绍了设备易损度计算的基础数学模型,随后详细描述了核电厂地震概率安全评价中电气设备易损度计算的操作步骤,并重点探讨了电气设备功能失效模式下对试验反应谱和要求反应谱的处理简化技巧,最后通过具体算例阐述了电气设备易损度计算过程中的注意事项和简化技巧应用。     

大亚湾核电站反应堆厂房楼层反应谱分析评估

大亚湾核电站核岛厂房的抗震分析遵循技术输出国-法国M310型机组的土建技术规范RCC-G,采用简化的阻抗函数法计算地基岩土的作用.根据大亚湾厂址的地基岩土特点,拟采用更为精确的三维连续半空间边界子结构法来考虑地基岩土的作用,并与原设计进行对比.另外,在原设计中采用多组时程作为地震输入,取各组计算结果的平均值作为设计值的基础(称为"平均"法).在研究中基于相同的时程,拟分别采用"平均"法和更为常用的"包络"法,处理多组时程的响应.基于上述两方面,通过反应堆厂房的地震响应计算,得到核电站系统设备重要的设计基础数据-楼层反应谱(FRS),并将计算的楼层反应谱同设计谱进行比较,从而对设计方法及其结果进行评估,为电站的抗震设计裕量评估和安全管理提供可资参考的结论.     

核电厂机械设备可靠度计算方法探索

目前核电厂可靠性数据多是针对设备类的统计数据,针对特定设备的可靠性数据较少。使用设计数据计算特定设备的可靠度,可丰富可靠性数据库。本文在机械产品可靠度计算步骤的基础上,研究了机械产品可靠度计算常用的强度-应力干涉模型,推导出不同分布函数对应的可靠度计算公式,计算了某核电厂的钩爪零件在断裂失效模式下的可靠度。研究结果表明：使用机械设备可靠度分析计算的一般步骤对核电厂机械设备进行可靠性分析计算是适合的;使用强度 应力干涉模型计算设备的可靠度是有效的。     

Seismic individual plant examination of external events of US nuclear power plants: insights and implications

As part of the implementation of the severe accident policy, nuclear power plants in the US are conducting the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). Seismic events are treated in these IPEEEs by either a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or a seismic margin assessment. The major elements of a seismic PRA are the seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility evaluation of structures and equipment and systems analysis using event tree and fault tree analysis techniques to develop accident sequences and calculate their frequencies of occurrence. The seismic margin assessment is a deterministic evaluation of the seismic margin of the plant beyond the design basis earthquake. A review level earthquake is selected and some of the components that are on the success paths are screened out as exceeding the review level earthquake; the remaining ones are evaluated for their seismic capacity using information from the original plant design criteria, test data and plant walkdown. The IPEEEs of over 100 operating nuclear power plants are nearing completion. This paper summarizes the lessons learned in conducting the IPEEEs and their applicability to nuclear power plants outside of the United States.     

核电站环形吊车抗震计算分析

应用有限元分析软件ANSYS建立了核电站环形吊车结构的三维计算模型,在模态分析的基础上,以环形吊车所在的安全壳标高40.0 m处的地震反应谱作为输入,对环形吊车结构进行了地震响应分析计算.计算结果表明,地震动作用下环形吊车的垂直位移和应力响应比较小,但水平位移和应力响应比较大,原因是环形吊车水平方向1阶弯曲振动固有频率位于水平地震反应谱最大值频率区间附近;环形吊车结构在地震动作用下能满足抗震设计强度要求,应力集中处的最大应力小于材料屈服极限.     

基于分离变量的地震PSA相关性分析方法研究

为解决现有地震概率安全评价（PSA）相关性分析简化假设存在的问题,建立更准确反映核电厂构筑物、系统和部件（SSC）地震相关性的分析方法,对基于分离变量的易损度相关性分析开展了研究。结合易损度模型对分析方法进行了理论推导,并对方法的实施过程进行了介绍。利用该方法对不同条件下SSC的联合失效开展案例分析,得到了联合失效的易损度曲线和失效频率分析结果,并与现有相关性简化假设得到的结果进行了对比。研究结果表明,基于分离变量的地震PSA相关性分析方法能弥补现有方法的不足,支持核电厂地震PSA开发和应用。