The structure of interstate and interregional migration: 1965–1970

This study examines the structure present in interstate migration at the national level and interregional migration in the Western states in an attempt to identify the interrelationships that exist between the respective areal units. Places which act as important origins and destinations in the process are determined through the use of nodal and principal component analyses. It is found that the nation can be dichotomized into regions oriented towards the states of California and Florida and that the western part of the nation can also be regionalized into a small number of important migration fields. The centers of the majority of these fields are metropolitan areas. Such identification of the spatial organization provides a useful picture of the areal extents over which major attractive centers have influence.The author wishes to acknowledge the financial support of the Academic Senate Committee on Research, University of California, Santa Barbara, California.     

The migration response to the economic turnaround in New England

"This paper is an investigation of the dynamics of interstate migration flows to and from New England since 1975. The main goal of the research is to study the timing and volume of the lagged migration adjustment to the regional economic turnaround and the temporal stability of patterns of regional inflows and outflows. The paper is an examination of the responsiveness of interstate migration to changing regional economic conditions based on annual interstate migration data and a set of cross-sectional destination-specific Poisson regression models." The data are from a series developed by the Bureau of the Census based on Federal income tax returns.     

Accounting for migration in regional occupational employment projections

Occupational employment projections are one of the primary products produced by state labor market information agencies to assist with state and regional job training and worker assistance programs. In theory, the information from occupational employment forecasts should improve both interregional and intertemporal labor market efficiency through better matching between training efforts and job openings. Until recently, the projections methodology was predominantly a demand-requirements approach that failed to incorporate important labor supply effects and interstate/interregional dependencies. Recent research has focused on improving the labor supply specification. This paper reports on one such effort to evaluate the importance of interstate occupational migration and to develop methods to incorporate migration into the existing projections methodology. Initial results indicate that the total number of estimated job openings by occupation have to be revised significantly upwards when migration is taken into account.     

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

The topic of interstate migration and the effects of taxes on migration have been extensively studied. Prior research has examined not only many possible determinants of migration but also the migrations of various populations, including the elderly, African-Americans, and the college educated. The present study will attempt to differentiate itself from this prior research by looking at the effect of income taxes on the interstate migration of both whites and African-Americans at various ages. Another distinguishing feature of the present study is that it will use data from the NLSY-Geocode, a data set not used previously for this type of study. Results of the present study are similar to the results of prior works; income taxes have an effect on migration for most races and age groups. Individuals move from states with high income taxes to states with low income taxes; these results corroborate the results obtained from the use of aggregate, state-level data. In addition, results of the present study suggest that non-economic factors, such as ties to a particular state and changes in employment status, are also important factors in an individual’s migration decision.     

Immigration and the City: Some Demographic Facts and Issues

Unquestionably, migration has become a predominant factor in the growth of all mainland capital cities of Australia, partly because of the relatively low fertility extant, partly because of the level of immigration to Australia and, also, because of high levels of interstate internal migration. In fact, the migration components oif growth have varied for decades between Australian cities – with strong overseas migration and internal migration together resulting in annual rates of growth of over 3 per cent per annum in Perth, and strong internal migration and lesser but significant immigration sustaining almost comparable growth rates in metropolitan Brisbane. Much of the internal migration net gain to these two cities comprises migration from Sydney and Melbourne, particularly the former.     

Functional forms and the relevance of contiguous migration in the study of migration and employment growth

Previous studies on interstate migration have dealt with total migration without decomposing it into contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Since migration over borders of contiguous states may merely reflect changes in residence without changes in economic activities, the use of total migration data might reduce the reliability of empirical results. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model containing two equations, one for migration and the other for employment growth, has been specified in a general form and estimated by the 2SLS method for total, contiguous and noncontiguous migration flows. Results obtained from the use of 1970 Census data show that noncontiguous migration behaves significantly different from contiguous migration, and that noncontiguous migration, rather than total migration, should be used for the study of factors affecting interstate migration. Results also indicate that the log-linear functional form commonly used in empirical studies cannot be accepted statistically.     

Independent and linked migration: Individual return of employment opportunity and household return of poverty status to African American interstate migration

The thrust of this study is to describe and contrast the determinants and outcomes of African-American interstate migration. We examine two types of migration outcomes – individual return to employment probability and household level return to poverty status. We investigate these motivations and outcomes based on a new typology of migration through the lens of household change that accompanies migration. We specify a pairwise two-stage probit model incorporating individual and state-level variables using Public Use Micro Sample data and various ecological data in the US. We show that independent migrants move to other states envisioning economic models of migration with migration as a derived response to opportunities, pressures, and constraints imposed by spatial inequalities in socioeconomic development. On the other hand, we demonstrate that linked migrants move to other states also for their economic need, but via kinship. In this case, the linked migrants' path does not follow the general pattern of economic circumstances. We show that household composition is an important factor that influences the destination choice for African Americans. While independent migrants are more concerned with diverse economic conditions at destinations, kinship, other ties and household structure at destinations are more significant factors for linked migrants. Received: June 2000/Accepted: June 2001     

The re-emergence of core region growth: a return to the metropolis?

Recent trends in migration in the United States are reviewed, focusing on the links between regional and metropolitan population change. Three explanations for the counterurbanization phenomenon of the 1970s are presented and their implications for future migration trends considered. The author concludes that "while 1970s core region declines may have been strongly linked to the counterurbanization process, post-1980 core region gains do not appear to signal a return to the metropolis."     

Is human capital accumulation a self-propelling process? Comparing educational attainment levels of movers and stayers

The paper aims at understanding changes in the distribution and accumulation of intellectual capital. It compares the educational profiles of in-migrants and non-migrants across a sample of 303 U.S. counties and tests a stock-flow model that poses that a well-educated population stock attracts a well-educated migrant flow. The results suggest that newcomers are better educated than the resident population, and the education gap is most pronounced for newcomers from other states. The results further suggest that the educational status of newcomers (“in-migrants”) is positively related to the educational status of the resident population (“stayers”), thus implying a further agglomeration of human capital across space. However, for interstate migrants the effect is context-dependent, playing a greater role in urban settings and diminishing in more rural settings.     

Measuring interstate migration flows: an origin-destination network based on Internal Revenue Service records

"This paper examines gross interstate migration flows for five periods for the years between 1969 and 1978. The analysis is based upon a newly available data source--Federal income tax returns. Approximately 90% of the US population is covered by this data series. The matching of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) returns between filing dates enables the determination both of the origin and of the destination of migrants, with few of the risks of geographic miscoding present. "These data illustrate that despite divergent economic fluctuations over the past nine years, the patterns of interstate migration have remained virtually unchanged. With few exceptions, the number of migrants either leaving or entering a particular state comprise identical proportions over time.... In addition, these data offer considerable evidence that current residence has a significant impact on the selection of a destination." Comparisons are made with data from the Current Work History Sample and the 1970 census.     

Fostering Green Communities Through Civic Engagement: Community-Based Environmental Stewardship in the Portland Area

A major problem concerning the quality of economic forecasting and policy analysis exists for planning agencies in metropolitan areas. These agencies are generally forced to trade off forecasting ability for cost due to the nature of existing methods. This dilemma can be solved through the use of metropolitan region econometric models, which can provide excellent forecasts and policy analysis potential at only moderate cost. This article describes how such models can be used for planning purposes, delineates the process required for the development of such models, presents a generalized equation specification, and provides a policy analysis illustration for the Milwaukee SMSA.     

Volatility in the geographical structure of short-run US interstate migration

"Migration is often thought to be a long-run phenomenon. However, it is shown here by means of labor-force migration estimates derived from the Continuous Work History Sample over the period 1958-1975, that US interstate migration is quite volatile over the short run with respect both to its adjustment to macroeconomic fluctuations and to its geographic structure. A hierarchical clustering routine is utilized to analyse yearly estimates of interstate gross in-migration and out-migration so as to identify the temporal stability and characteristics of the geographical patterns of migration. States enter the national migration linkage tree at different levels for different years, depending upon the level of short-run economic activity." It is also shown that "when national economic conditions worsen, labor-supply adjustments are more localized and the degree of interstate interdependence is less than in times of economic boom."     

Progressive land sub-division in the metropolitan border in Buenos Aires between 1972 and 2012

ABSTRACT

When considering the territorial changes in the Buenos Aires metropolitan border, progressive sub-division is not taken into account by the local bibliography as a component of this space. However, the changes reveal that land sub-division is an important issue that the bibliography should take into account. In light of this problem, this paper delves into the progressive sub-division problem in the Buenos Aires metropolitan border between 1972 and 2012. The elaboration of a specific mapping allows us to see that while we find lot divisions which are consolidated, and in many cases, densified, the bibliography does not address this process of occupation of the Buenos Aires metropolitan border.     

A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows

"A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins."     

Economic-demographic models for forecasting interregional migration

"A class of spatial economic-demographic forecasting models is proposed. The models combine elements of traditional Markov and economic gravity models. A base-period probability structure is modified by the changing relative distribution of economic opportunity. Estimation issues are addressed, and an empirical application to US interstate migration during the late 1970s is described. It is contended that the framework represents a merger of past demographic and economic modeling traditions in a spatial interaction framework."     

Assessing overall building energy performance of a large population of residential single-family homes using limited field data

Building energy simulation plays a significant role in building design and retrofit. Most applications deal with individual buildings which allow for the specification of detailed model inputs. However, building energy simulation can be a powerful tool for assessing energy performance even when comprehensive building characteristics are unavailable. In this study, limited field data were collected on randomly selected new homes in eight US states with a goal of evaluating energy code compliance and energy savings potential. The limited data do not allow the derivation of comprehensive model inputs for each individual home sampled, let alone for the entire unknown residential construction stock. Therefore, we used prototype buildings to construct a large number of models and utilized bootstrap sampling to draw inputs from the limited data. This research demonstrates that overall energy performance of a large population of new homes can be assessed by the novel framework, given limited data.     

Intransitivity,the spatial interaction model,and U.S. migration streams

"The flows predicted by a large class of spatial interaction models are transitive, yet US migration tables have been shown to contain large numbers of intransitivities. This paper investigates a number of possible conditions under which flows regulated by the spatial interaction model might be observed to be intransitive. A singly constrained gravity model is calibrated for a number of flow tables, and distorted by sampling error, by aggregation over strata, and by an independently distributed error term.... The results of the calibration of the spatial interaction using US interstate migration flows, 1935-1970, are given and compared with others previously published."     

Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."     

Models for the analysis of interregional migration

"Asymmetric square tables, such as those arising from interregional migration, can be analysed by separating the skew-symmetric and symmetric components. A least-squares analysis of the skew-symmetric part can indicate the degree of complexity of model that is consistent with data and this can be combined with some suitable model for the symmetric part. The joint model may then be fitted by maximum likelihood based on suitable distributional assumptions. This approach is used for an analysis of Australian interstate migration for l960-l966 and indicates a model with independent in-migration and out-migration rates proportional to a symmetric function of population sizes and interstate distance."     

Determinants of black interstate migration, 1965–70 and 1975–80

This paper presents and tests a regression-based model of black interstate migration. Explanatory variables include characteristics of origins and destinations, distance, and two migrant stock measures. The model is tested using black interstate migration flows published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1965–70 and 1975–80. Three findings stand out. Firstly, the stock measures are strong determinants of black migration. They tap behavioral processes that channelize black migration streams, including information flows through familial and social networks and return migration. Secondly, the migrant stock measures attenuate effects of other explanatory variables indicating that other variables influence current migration both directly and indirectly through the stock measures. Thirdly, changes in coefficients of explanatory variables between the two periods reflect shifts in black migration patterns that occurred during the 1970s.