Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

Examines findings showing that (1) those who know an event has occurred tend to claim that, if they had been asked to predict the event in advance, they would have been likely to do so; and (2) such Ss demonstrate hindsight bias to the extent that their "prediction" accuracy exceeds the accuracy of others who actually make the prediction without knowledge of the outcome. 75 practicing physicians were divided into 5 equal groups and given the same medical case history. The foresight group was asked to assign a probability estimate to each of 4 possible diagnoses. The 4 hindsight groups were asked to do the same, but each was told that a different 1 of the 4 possible diagnoses was correct. The hindsight groups, who were told that the least likely diagnoses were correct, assigned far greater probability estimates to these "correct" diagnoses than did the foresight group. Implications for physicians are discussed with respect to overconfident 2nd opinions, overconfidence in diagnostic accuracy, and inadequate appreciation of the original difficulty of diagnoses. (6 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hindsight bias from 3 to 95 years of age.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 37(3) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition (see record 2011-08992-005). On page 381, the notation in Figure 1 is incorrect. The corrected notations are discussed in the correction.] Upon learning the outcome to a problem, people tend to believe that they knew it all along (hindsight bias). Here, we report the first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the life span. One hundred ninety-four participants aged 3 to 95 years completed 3 tasks designed to measure visual and verbal hindsight bias. All age groups demonstrated hindsight bias on all 3 tasks; however, preschoolers and older adults exhibited more bias than older children and younger adults. Multinomial processing tree analyses of these data revealed that preschoolers' enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them substituting the correct answer for their original answer in their recall (a qualitative error). Conversely, older adults' enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them forgetting their original answer and recalling an answer closer to, but not equal to, the correct answer (a quantitative error). We discuss these findings in relation to mechanisms of memory, perspective taking, theory of mind, and executive function. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Children's Depression Inventory: Error in cutoff scores for screening purposes.

The Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) is used to screen for depression in school-age children. Such screening uses the manual's reported information on suggested cutoff scores. These cutoff scores are based on an erroneous base-rate calculation and an inadequate methodology. Data are provided showing that for the suggested cutoff scores of 13 or 20, the CDI has poor receiver-operating characteristics. Indeed, for the cutoff score of 20, suggested as being suitable for screening in the general population (e.g., schools), clinicians will miss 86% of depressed children. In conclusion, it is recommended that the CDI is better suited as a continuous measure of mood and that cutoff scores should not be used to screen for the likely presence or absence of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Examiner sex bias and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children scores.

Administered the WISC (excluding Mazes and Digit Span) to 64 3rd graders randomly selected for IQ. Eight examiners, 4 males and 4 females, each tested 8 children, 4 boys and 4 girls. Female examiners elicited higher Full Scale IQ, Verbal IQ, Comprehension, Similarities, and Vocabulary scores from all children. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Determining cutoff scores that optimize utility: A recognition of recruiting costs.

A modification of H. E. Brogden's (1949) utility formula is proposed for establishing optimal cutoff scores in criterion-related validity studies. The proposed modification highlights the direct trade off between selecting more capable applicants and the costs associated with selection and recruiting. Data from national cost-per-hire surveys are presented to illustrate the magnitude of recruiting costs relative to selection costs. In addition, an analysis of recruiting practices suggests the need to account for variable recruiting costs when establishing cutoff scores. Two examples are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. Cutoff scores are set to maximize the utility derived from salesperson productivity and to minimize the expenses associated with accidents by truck drivers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hindsight bias in economic expectations: I knew all along what I want to hear.

Hindsight bias in economic expectations was investigated with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes. Stronger hindsight bias was expected for subjectively favorable economic developments. Six months before and after the introduction of the euro as the official book currency of the European Monetary Union, participants rated the probabilities of several economic developments. Results show that hindsight bias occurs with economic expectations and that it is moderated by attitudes. Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive economic developments than for negative ones, whereas euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. The results support the notion that hindsight bias is a reconstruction bias in which self-serving tendencies can influence the reconstruction selectively for favorable and unfavorable outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Selection of graduate students in clinical psychology: Use of cutoff scores and interviews.

The use of cutoff scores and interviews in the selection of graduate students in clinical psychology has been debated extensively, but researchers in only a few empirical studies have looked at these issues. We examined the selection process for clinical psychology students at Boston University, in which an interview was used and a quantitative cutoff score was not used. We analyzed scores of 357 applicants on Graduate Record Examinations (GRE) and Miller Analogy Tests (MAT), grade point averages (GPA), and interview ratings. We found that the major criteria for invitation to an interview were GREs and GPA, though no quantitative cutoff had been used. The use of such a cutoff would result in no difference in selection of applicants. Reliability of interview ratings was moderately high, contrary to results of previous studies. Replications of this study would add to its generalizability and argue for the use of the cutoff and further consideration of the interview. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

"I knew we would win": Hindsight bias for favorable and unfavorable team decision outcomes.

This study examined hindsight bias for team decisions in a competitive setting in which groups attempted to outperform each other. It was anticipated that, because of self-serving mechanisms, individuals would show hindsight bias only when decision outcomes allowed them to take credit for their own team's success or to downgrade another team for being unsuccessful. MBA students playing a market simulation game made hindsight estimates regarding the likelihood that either their own or another team would perform well. Consistent with a self-serving interpretation, when decision outcomes were favorable individuals evaluating their own team, but not those evaluating another, showed hindsight bias. When outcomes were unfavorable individuals evaluating their own team did not show hindsight bias, but those evaluating another team did. Discussion focuses on implications of hindsight bias in team decision-making settings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A method for investigating sources of rater bias.

Few studies in counseling and psychotherapy have investigated rater bias. The purpose of this study was to outline a method for studying rater bias. We studied three potential sources of rater bias: (a) characteristics of the rater, client, and therapist; (b) the similarity of characteristics between rater and therapist or client; and (c) perceived similarity between rater and therapist or client. We used a new rater-bias measure. The data for the study were ratings on the Collaborative Study Psychotherapy Rating Scale for 826 sessions of psychotherapy in the Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program. High interrater reliability was found for all scales of the measure. We found evidence of rater bias only on the facilitative conditions scale. Rater bias was not found for the other scales, perhaps because of the extensive development of the measure, careful selection of the raters, lengthy rater training, and continued contact with raters throughout the rating period. The rater-bias measure may be useful to other researchers as a means of testing the reactivity of their measures to rater bias. Finally, the method for investigating rater bias can be used by other researchers to evaluate rater bias. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A theory of criterion setting with an application to sequential dependencies.

Describes 3 models (the linear additive learning model, the exponential additive learning model, and the independent trace model) of sequential effects in psychophysical tasks. These models were tested using data from a study by W. S. Verplack et al (see record 1953-04864-001). The models appear to be most consistent with the independent trace model in which the momentary value of the criterion is modified by memory traces, an independent trace being retained for each relevant past event. On this basis, a theory of criterion setting is developed: A long-term process determines an initial value for the criterion, and 2 short-term processes adjust the criterion to match current changes in the expected probabilities of signals and to maximize the information transmitted by the S's responses. The theory is applied to results in the literature. (65 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Hindsight bias, Daubert, and the silicone breast implant litigation: Making the case for court-appointed experts in complex medical and scientific litigation.

Empirical research indicates that knowledge of the outcome in a given case influences juror deliberations. This bias is compounded when the jury must evaluate complex scientific evidence. Because jurors typically lack the background necessary to evaluate such evidence, they often use hindsight as a "cognitive shortcut." "Junk science" can exacerbate this tendency by offering a "scientific" link between the injury and the product. Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (1993), properly applied, can defuse junk science testimony and mitigate its distorting effect on legal outcomes. The authors argue that judges carrying out Daubert's prerogatives should, where feasible, appoint independent experts and science panels to educate themselves and the jury, and thereby improve the likelihood that legal decisions will be based on sound scientific understanding. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

原矿浆制备过程的智能优化设定方法及应用

针对中国铝业山西分公司氧化铝分厂原矿浆制备过程机理复杂、关键被控变量的优化设定值不易获得从而使生产指标难以控制在期望目标值范围内的问题,将案例推理和专家系统技术相结合,提出一种多变量智能优化设定方法.预设定模型根据生产指标的目标值和工况的变化给出控制回路的预设定值,基于专家规则的修正模型根据实际工况的变化对预设定值进行校正,从而实现了控制回路设定值的在线自动调整.研发了基于分布式控制系统的原矿浆制备过程设定软件,此系统应用于原矿浆制备过程的生产实际,能够适应工况的频繁变化,自动更新回路设定值,从而实现了生产指标的优化控制,取得了明显成效.     

Teaching psychotherapy in an academic setting.

Describes a psychotherapy training program that includes 4 sequentially arranged courses: individual, group, marital, and family therapy. The sequence exposes students to a wide range of therapeutic modalities and interventions. Groups, led by an advanced graduate student, learn through written assignments, oral and written critiques of practice sessions, conferences with leaders and/or the instructor, individual assessment, and corrective feedback during practice sessions. Although it is not a substitute for supervised practicum or internship, the sequence bridges the gap between classroom study and the later performance of psychotherapy in a supervised setting. (13 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On translating beliefs into action: Theories of ability and their application in an instructional setting.

90 male undergraduates acted as an instructor or as 1 of 2 pupils in experimental sessions during which the instructors taught a card trick. Beforehand, instructors learned either that ability is produced through such extrinsic factors as thorough instruction (extrinsic theory), or that ability emerges from the natural development of pupils' intrinsic capabilities (intrinsic theory). Instructors were also told that one pupil possessed high ability (high ability label) and the other possessed low ability (low ability label). Pupils whose instructors operated with the extrinsic theory behaviorally confirmed their instructors' initial beliefs: Pupils labeled as having high ability outperformed those labeled as having low ability. Yet pupils whose instructors operated with the intrinsic theory behaviorally disconfirmed their initial beliefs: Pupils labeled as having low ability outperformed those labeled as having high ability. Regardless of pupils' actual performance, instructors always asserted that pupils labeled as having high ability outperformed those labeled as having low ability. Pupils labeled as having high ability asserted that instructors had more confidence in their ability than pupils labeled as having low ability. (30 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

In-group bias in response to an organizational merger.

The present research examined the extent of in-group bias in response to a planned organizational merger. Data were collected from 1,104 employees of 2 hospitals intending to merge—a high-status metropolitan teaching hospital and a relatively low-status local area hospital. As predicted from social identity theory, there was clear evidence of in-group bias, particularly among the employees of the lower status hospital on the dimensions irrelevant to the status differentiation between hospitals. On the status-relevant dimensions, in-group bias was significantly more marked among the employees of the high-status hospital. Also, as predicted, perceived threat was related to in-group bias on the status-irrelevant dimensions among the low-status employees. The present results indicate that managers need to be cognizant of the intergroup rivalry that is likely to be engendered in the context of an organizational merger, particularly among the employees of the lower status organization. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Observers and participants in an intergroup setting.

High- and low-self-esteem participant and observer (control) Ss received feedback about the performance of in-groups and out-groups. Self-evaluations and evaluations of the groups were assessed. Results suggest that participant group members (vs observers) enhance evaluations of both groups under conditions of failure feedback. Intergroup bias was obtained over and above these effects for participant high-self-esteem Ss. However, participant low-self-esteem Ss favored failing out-groups. Results suggest that individuals with different levels of self-esteem may differ in terms of their inferred status within groups. Intragroup comparisons may then influence one's choice of group for social identification. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Defensive attribution of responsibility: Evidence for an arousal-based motivational bias.

Conducted 2 experiments with female undergraduates to determine whether arousal plays a central role in the defensive attribution process. Defensive attribution theorists presume that observing another's unwarranted victimization arouses a negative affective state by threatening observers with the prospect that similarly capricious misfortune could occur to them. Observers are thought to defend cognitively against the threat by distorting their perceptual judgments of the victim's causal role in his or her own victimization. In Exp I, 48 Ss completed attitudinal questionnaires before reading a bogus account of a female student's sexual victimization. Ss indicated their opinions of the morality, intelligence, and responsibility of the victim. In Exp II, 56 Ss completed the same social perception task under conditions of private self-awareness and personal similarity/dissimilarity. Results of both experiments provide convergent evidence that arousal plays a central role in the defensive attribution process. For instance, a personally similar victim was assigned less responsibility for her victimization than was a dissimilar victim. The implications of a distinction between behavioral and characterological responsibility for the defensive attribution process are also examined and discussed. (44 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)