考虑不确定性的多学科设计优化方法研究综述

目的研究多学科不确定性设计优化中多学科设计优化方法、不确定性建模与传递、不确定性设计优化的相关理论。方法通过研究并分析国内外相关文献,总结归纳考虑不确定性的多学科设计优化中的耦合系统解耦方法、参数和代理模型不确定性的建模方法,以及高效的不确定性传递和设计优化方法。结论系统探讨了在面对复杂多变的外界环境时,多学科设计优化对不确定性量化与传递的需求,提出多学科设计优化不仅要考虑确定性的系统,而且需要考虑由于外界环境变化导致的系统响应的不确定性。针对现有的多学科不确定性设计优化方法的理论研究,提出提高计算效率的关键在于将传统的三层嵌套循环计算框架解耦成单层循环。研究结果表明,考虑不确定性的多学科设计优化将成为复杂多学科系统设计的有力支撑,能显著提高系统的可靠性和稳健性,提高使用寿命,同时能够加快产品的更新换代设计。     

Decoupled approach to multidisciplinary design optimization under uncertainty

We propose solution methods for multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) under uncertainty. This is a class of stochastic optimization problems that engineers are often faced with in a realistic design process of complex systems. Our approach integrates solution methods for reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) with solution methods for deterministic MDO problems. The integration is enabled by the use of a deterministic equivalent formulation and the first order Taylor’s approximation in these RBDO methods. We discuss three specific combinations: the RBDO methods with the multidisciplinary feasibility method, the all-at-once method, and the individual disciplinary feasibility method. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the procedure. Anukal Chiralaksanakul is currently a full-time lecturer in the Graduate School of Business Administration at National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), Bangkok, Thailand.     

复杂系统的多学科设计优化综述

从设计和分析的本质出发,结合复杂系统的特点,通过分析传统设计优化流程在面对复杂系统时存在的困难和缺陷,指出多学科设计优化(multidisciplinary design optimization,MDO)方法是解决复杂系统设计优化问题的一种有效措施.在此基础上,介绍了多学科优化方法的基本思想,总结了子系统耦合方式及MDO在处理耦合时的基本方法,归纳了MDO的知识框架和主要研究内容.最后在现有研究成果的基础上,对MDO今后的研究提出了几点参考意见.     

Collaborative optimization with inverse reliability for multidisciplinary systems uncertainty analysis

This article introduces a method which combines the collaborative optimization framework and the inverse reliability strategy to assess the uncertainty encountered in the multidisciplinary design process. This method conducts the sub-system analysis and optimization concurrently and then improves the process of searching for the most probable point (MPP). It reduces the load of the system-level optimizer significantly. This advantage is specifically more prominent for large-scale engineering system design. Meanwhile, because the disciplinary analyses are treated as the equality constraints in the disciplinary optimization, the computation load can be further reduced. Examples are used to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.     

Multi-objective system reliability-based optimization method for design of a fully parametric concept car body

This article investigates multi-objective optimization under reliability constraints with applications in vehicle structural design. To improve computational efficiency, an improved multi-objective system reliability-based design optimization (MOSRBDO) method is developed, and used to explore the lightweight and high-performance design of a concept car body under uncertainty. A parametric model knowledge base is established, followed by the construction of a fully parametric concept car body of a multi-purpose vehicle (FPCCB-MPV) based on the knowledge base. The structural shape, gauge and topology optimization are then designed on the basis of FPCCB-MPV. The numerical implementation of MOSRBDO employs the double-loop method with design optimization in the outer loop and system reliability analysis in the inner loop. Multi-objective particle swarm optimization is used as the outer loop optimization solver. An improved multi-modal radial-based importance sampling (MRBIS) method is utilized as the system reliability solver for multi-constraint analysis in the inner loop. The accuracy and efficiency of the MRBIS method are demonstrated on three widely used test problems. In conclusion, MOSRBDO has been successfully applied for the design of a full parametric concept car body. The results show that the improved MOSRBDO method is more effective and efficient than the traditional MOSRBDO while achieving the same accuracy, and that the optimized body-in-white structure signifies a noticeable improvement from the baseline model.     

A Geodesign Method of Human-Energy-Water Interactive Systems for Urban Infrastructure Design: 10KM2 Near-Zero District Project in Shanghai

The grand challenges of climate change demand a new paradigm of urban design that takes the performance of urban systems into account, such as energy and water efficiency. Traditional urban design methods focus on the form-making process and lack performance dimensions. Geodesign is an emerging approach that emphasizes the links between systems thinking, digital technology, and geographic context. This paper presents the research results of the first phase of a larger research collaboration and proposes an extended geodesign method for a district-scale urban design to integrate systems of renewable energy production, energy consumption, and storm water management, as well as a measurement of human experiences in cities. The method incorporates geographic information system (GIS), parametric modeling techniques, and multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) tools that enable collaborative design decision-making. The method is tested and refined in a test case with the objective of designing a near-zero-energy urban district. Our final method has three characteristics. ① Integrated geodesign and parametric design: It uses a parametric design approach to generate focal-scale district prototypes by means of a custom procedural algorithm, and applies geodesign to evaluate the performances of design proposals. ② A focus on design flow: It elaborates how to define problems, what information is selected, and what criteria are used in making design decisions. ③ Multi-objective optimization: The test case produces indicators from performance modeling and derives principles through a multi-objective computational experiment to inform how the design can be improved. This paper concludes with issues and next steps in modeling urban design and infrastructure systems based on MDO tools.     

Structural reliability analysis and uncertainties‐based collaborative design and optimization of turbine blades using surrogate model

In power and energy systems, both the aerodynamic performance and the structure reliability of turbine equipment are affected by utilized blades. In general, the design process of blade is high dimensional and nonlinear. Different coupled disciplines are also involved during this process. Moreover, unavoidable uncertainties are transported and accumulated between these coupled disciplines, which may cause turbine equipment to be unsafe. In this study, a saddlepoint approximation reliability analysis method is introduced and combined with collaborative optimization method to address the above challenge. During the above reliability analysis and design optimization process, surrogate models are utilized to alleviate the computational burden for uncertainties‐based multidisciplinary design and optimization problems. Smooth response surfaces of the performance of turbine blades are constructed instead of expensively time‐consuming simulations. A turbine blade design problem is solved here to validate the effectiveness and show the utilization of the given approach.     

Polynomial Response Surface Approximations for the Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of a High Speed Civil Transport

Surrogate functions have become an important tool in multidisciplinary design optimization to deal with noisy functions, high computational cost, and the practical difficulty of integrating legacy disciplinary computer codes. A combination of mathematical, statistical, and engineering techniques, well known in other contexts, have made polynomial surrogate functions viable for MDO. Despite the obvious limitations imposed by sparse high fidelity data in high dimensions and the locality of low order polynomial approximations, the success of the panoply of techniques based on polynomial response surface approximations for MDO shows that the implementation details are more important than the underlying approximation method (polynomial, spline, DACE, kernel regression, etc.). This paper selectively surveys some of the ancillary techniques—statistics, global search, parallel computing, variable complexity modeling—that augment the construction and use of polynomial surrogates.     

复杂产品的多学科鲁棒协同设计优化方法研究

为了处理好复杂产品各子系统之间的耦合关系以及各子系统的异构性问题,以协同优化(CO)算法为基础,结合系统不确定分析(SUA)方法和近似不确定传播(IUP)方法,构建了多学科鲁棒协同设计优化算法框架.在设计变量的不确定性能够被概率分布函数描述的情况下,此算法框架能够解决复杂产品的设计优化问题.通过对梳齿式微加速度计的多学科鲁棒协同优化设计算例的计算,验证了此算法在输入参数存在微小扰动的情况下能够有效提高设计解的鲁棒性.     

A single-loop optimization method for reliability analysis with second order uncertainty

Reliability analysis may involve random variables and interval variables. In addition, some of the random variables may have interval distribution parameters owing to limited information. This kind of uncertainty is called second order uncertainty. This article develops an efficient reliability method for problems involving the three aforementioned types of uncertain input variables. The analysis produces the maximum and minimum reliability and is computationally demanding because two loops are needed: a reliability analysis loop with respect to random variables and an interval analysis loop for extreme responses with respect to interval variables. The first order reliability method and nonlinear optimization are used for the two loops, respectively. For computational efficiency, the two loops are combined into a single loop by treating the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) optimal conditions of the interval analysis as constraints. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed method.     

微机电器件的稳健设计

微机电系统（MEMS）是一个新兴的跨学科研究领域,成本和可靠性是MEMS商品化的关键。与传统的机械加工和IC加工相比,MEMS加工的尺寸偏差比较大,而且很难控制,因此需要在设计过程中充分考虑加工的不确定性。稳健设计可以在不提高制造成本的前提下提高设计方案的稳健性。稳健优化设计方法主要包括 Taguchi方法和基于容差模型的方法,后者特别适合于处理带约束的优化设计问题。以微加速度计和微阀为例给出了稳健设计在MEMS设计中的应用,验证了稳健设计可以显著提高MEMS器件的信噪比。     

Cutting the double loop: Theory and algorithms for reliability-based design optimization with parametric uncertainty

Parametric uncertainties complicate engineering design—confounding regulated design approaches and degrading the performance of reliability efforts. The simplest means to tackle this uncertainty is double-loop simulation , a nested Monte Carlo method that, for practical problems, is intractable. In this work, we introduce a flexible, general approximation technique that obviates the double loop. This approximation is constructed in the context of a novel theory of reliability design under parametric uncertainty: we introduce metrics for measuring the efficacy of reliability-based design optimization strategies ( epistemic design gap and effective reliability ), minimal conditions for controlling uncertain reliability ( precision margin ), and stricter conditions that guarantee the desired reliability at a designed confidence level. We provide a number of examples with open-source code to demonstrate our approaches in a reproducible fashion.     

Efficiency for multiobjective multidisciplinary optimization problems with quasiseparable subproblems

Multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) has proved to be a useful tool for engineering design problems. Multiobjective optimization has been introduced to strengthen MDO techniques and deal with non-comparable and conflicting design objectives. A large majority of papers on multiobjective MDO have been applied in nature. This paper develops theory of multiobjective MDO and examines relationships between efficient solutions of a quasi-separable multiobjective multidisciplinary optimization problem and efficient solutions of its separable counterpart. Equivalence of the original and separable problems in the context of the Kuhn-Tucker constraint qualification and efficiency conditions are proved. Two decomposition approaches are proposed and offer a possibility of finding efficient solutions of the original problem by only finding efficient solutions of the subproblems. The presented results are related to algorithms published in the engineering literature on multiobjective MDO.     

Reliability based design optimization using response surfaces in application to multidisciplinary systems

Traditionally, reliability based design optimization (RBDO) is formulated as a nested optimization problem. For these problems the objective is to minimize a cost function while satisfying the reliability constraints. The reliability constraints are usually formulated as constraints on the probability of failure corresponding to each of the failure modes or a single constraint on the system probability of failure. The probability of failure is usually estimated by performing a reliability analysis. The difficulty in evaluating reliability constraints comes from the fact that modern reliability analysis methods are themselves formulated as an optimization problem. Solving such nested optimization problems is extremely expensive for large scale multidisciplinary systems which are likewise computationally intensive. In this research, a framework for performing reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization using approximations is developed. Response surface approximations (RSA) of the limit state functions are used to estimate the probability of failure. An outer loop is incorporated to ensure that the approximate RBDO converges to the actual most probable point of failure. The framework is compared with the exact RBDO procedure. In the proposed methodology, RSAs are employed to significantly reduce the computational expense associated with traditional RBDO. The proposed approach is implemented in application to multidisciplinary test problems, and the computational savings and benefits are discussed.     

Decomposition of multidisciplinary optimization problems: formulations and application to a simplified wing design

Several formulations for solving multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) problems are presented and applied to a test case. Two bi-level hierarchical decomposition approaches are compared with two classical single-level approaches without decomposition of the optimization problem. A methodology to decompose MDO problems and a new formulation based on this decomposition are proposed. The problem considered here for validation of the different formulations involves the shape and structural optimization of a conceptual wing model. The efficiency of the design strategies are compared on the basis of optimization results.     

Multidisciplinary design optimization based on independent subspaces

Optimization has been successfully applied to systems with a single discipline. Since many disciplines are involved in a coupled fashion in modern engineering, multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) technology has been developed. MDO algorithms are designed to solve the coupled aspects generated from the interdisciplinary relationship. In a general MDO algorithm, a large design problem is decomposed into smaller ones which can be easily solved. Although various methods have been proposed for MDO, research is still in the early stage. This study proposes a new MDO method which is named MDO based on independent subspaces (MDOIS). Many real engineering problems consist of physically separate components and they can be independently designed. The inter‐relationship occurs through coupled physics. MDOIS is developed for such problems. In MDOIS, a large system is decomposed into small subsystems. The coupled aspects are solved via system analysis which solves the coupled physics. The algorithm is mathematically validated by showing that the solution satisfies the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker condition. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of robustness for a stiffened composite structure using stochastic analysis

It is a common practice to only consider the nominal means as input variables for both classical solid mechanics and finite element (FE) analysis problems. A single solution based on the mean values is then used in design. In reality all input variables are stochastic, existing within a range of possible values. Different combinations of these stochastic input variables will lead to differing output responses and the introduction of variability will cause each structure to have a response that deviates from the original specification, sometimes with catastrophic consequences. In this paper two variables, influence and sensitivity, have been identified as parameters affecting structural robustness. Variability and uncertainty in loads, geometry and lamina stiffness are introduced via a stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) procedure. The procedure is applied to the design of composite yacht hulls comparing the robustness of designs aimed at satisfying a range of performance and cost requirements. It is shown that influence and sensitivity are useful in identifying designs that lead to imperfection tolerant structures.     

A parallel bi-level multidisciplinary design optimization architecture with convergence proof for general problem

Quite a number of distributed Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) architectures have been proposed for the optimal design of large-scale multidisciplinary systems. However, just a few of them have available numerical convergence proof. In this article, a parallel bi-level MDO architecture is presented to solve the general MDO problem with shared constraints and a shared objective. The presented architecture decomposes the original MDO problem into one implicit nonlinear equation and multiple concurrent sub-optimization problems, then solves them through a bi-level process. In particular, this architecture allows each sub-optimization problem to be solved in parallel and its solution is proven to converge to the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) point of the original MDO problem. Finally, two MDO problems are introduced to perform a comprehensive evaluation and verification of the presented architecture and the results demonstrate that it has a good performance both in convergence and efficiency.     

Reliability analysis for multidisciplinary systems with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties

Epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables always exist in multidisciplinary system simultaneously and can be modeled by probability and evidence theories, respectively. The propagation of uncertainty through coupled subsystem and the strong nonlinearity of the multidisciplinary system make the reliability analysis difficult and computational cost expensive. In this paper, a novel reliability analysis procedure is proposed for multidisciplinary system with epistemic and aleatory uncertain variables. First, the probability density function of the aleatory variables is assumed piecewise uniform distribution based on Bayes method, and approximate most probability point is solved by equivalent normalization method. Then, important sampling method is used to calculate failure probability and its variance and variation coefficient. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.