南水北调运行风险管理研究

介绍“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目——“南水北调运行管理关键技术问题研究”课题的主要成果。课题在南水北调工程运行风险分类与相互关系、风险识别与风险机理、风险预测与控制和风险安全保障预案等方面取得了重大突破,许多成果填补了国内空白,成果具有很强的实用性,为南水北调未来运行的风险管理奠定了良好基础。     

我院承担的“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“南水北调运行风险管理关键技术问题研究”课题成果验收会在北京召开

2011年1月18日,水利部国际合作与科技司在北京主持召开了我院承担的十一五国家科技支撑计划重大项目南水北调工程若干关键技术研究与应用第九课题南水北调运行风险管理关键技术问题研究验收会.来自水利部黄     

南水北调工程运行风险控制及管理预案初探

对南水北调工程运行影响较大的风险因子归纳起来可概括为工程风险、水文风险、生态与环境风险、经济风险和社会风险等。从风险控制理论入手,分析了调水工程运行管理的风险控制技术,比较了工程措施和非工程措施的利弊,提出几类主要风险的一般性控制措施,初步探讨了南水北调工程运行风险管理预案的制定依据和原则,为南水北调工程的运行管理提供有益参考。     

南水北调工程关键技术研究进展

"十一五"以来,国家科技支撑计划就南水北调东中线一期工程安排了一系列关键技术攻关课题。介绍了关键技术研究进展情况、主要成果并做出了展望。通过分析研究各课题的成果报告及其部分文献资料,梳理总结与提炼了在工程设计与施工、设备与材料、水资源配置与输水调度、管理与安全运行、风险管理与病害防治、水质安全及影响评估等方面获得的关键技术创新成果。随着一期工程建成运行,新的关键技术问题又相继出现,为此提出仍需从工程运行安全检测、水资源集约节约、提高工程综合效益等方面继续开展相关攻关研究。     

南水北调中线明渠工程运行风险评价方法研究

在分析南水北调中线明渠工程运行风险主要影响因素的基础上,建立了明渠工程运行风险评价指标体系,并引入了基于直觉模糊集理论的多属性评价模型,对评价体系中各指标进行量化分析,给出了隶属度、非隶属度和犹豫度,最后利用得分函数和TOPSIS法进行综合评价,得到风险等级。以南水北调中线一期工程总干渠潮河段工程风险评价为例,验证了该风险评价方法的有效性和实用性,为工程运行过程中的风险管理工作提供了依据。     

南水北调中线水资源调度关键技术研究

文章是"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目"南水北调中线水资源调度关键技术研究"课题的研究内容介绍。针对南水北调中线一期工程建成后,如何进行科学、合理、高效、便捷的水资源调度,充分发挥经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益,分析了4个方面的实际需求,提出了中线水资源调度关键技术研究的目标,总体架构,技术路线及其主要任务。     

基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇风险分析

摘要：南水北调中线工程跨越了长江、淮河、黄河、海河四大流域及不同的气候区，水源区和各受水区降水丰枯变化存在差异性和不确定性，不同的丰枯遭遇状态将孕育着南水北调中线工程运行风险。本文基于贝叶斯网络理论对南水北调中线工程水源区和四个受水区的降水丰枯遭遇进行了深入的分析研究，建立了贝叶斯网络丰枯遭遇风险管理模型，定量直观地描述了水源区与四个受水区之间复杂的降水丰枯组合关系，对模型中各结点的参数进行了辨识，计算了水源区与各受水区不同的丰枯组合状态对调水不利的风险概率。通过所建模型的贝叶斯网络推理功能，对南水北调中线工程未来运行中可能发生的丰枯遭遇及其风险进行了仿真研究，研究成果将为南水北调中线水资源调度提供科学的决策依据。     

南水北调中线工程穿跨邻接项目安全影响评价探析

南水北调中线工程沿线社会经济发展迅速,穿跨项目数量不断增加,给中线工程运行和风险控制提出了更高要求。基于中线工程特点,研究了南水北调中线干线工程穿跨邻接项目安全影响评价的工作重点,分析了穿跨邻接项目必要性和符合性,以及工程布置、中线工程建筑物、施工等方面安全影响评价等重点内容,并结合穿跨项目的工程实践,分析了典型工程施工的风险控制点。研究成果可为类似工程的安全影响评价工作提供参考。     

雅砻江锦屏一级大坝运行安全风险管控技术研究与应用

锦屏一级大坝作为世界第一高坝,设计指标和工程规模均远超现行标准,在复杂环境条件下,运行安全风险高、管理难度大。雅砻江公司通过识别分析锦屏一级大坝运行安全风险,组织开展风险管控关键技术研究,建立大坝运行安全风险管理体系,有效实现了大坝运行安全风险管控。     

南水北调中线工程安全运行风险防范

正安全运行是南水北调的生命线,是必须坚守的底线。在工程运行中,各类安全隐患存在给工程运行带来一定风险。必须防患于未然,认真贯彻落实"水利工程补短板、水利行业强监管"水利改革发展总基调,研究分析可能发生的各类工程风险,制定风险控制措施和保障预案,确保工程安全平稳运行,保证工程效益持久发挥。     

地下厂房施工过程的三维非线性数值模拟分析

根据冗各电站地下厂房开挖支护的施工顺序,以隐式杆单元模拟锚杆,以壳单元模拟混凝土喷层,采用三维非线性有限元技术,对洞室群的开挖支护动态过程进行了模拟计算。通过三维非线性有限元计算分析得到:洞室群动态开挖过程中围岩应力变形的分布规律,围岩塑性区的发展规律,锚杆受力变化情况。计算结果表明:整个开挖过程中,洞周围岩位移变化规律正常,量值较小,塑性区主要分布在洞室周边,围岩稳定性较好;但在洞室交叉口处围岩的变形较大,出现较大范围的塑性区,在此基础上提出了支护措施优化方案,并对优化方案的效果进行了评价。     

Evaluation of freshwater mussel relocation as a conservation and management strategy

The relocation of unionacean mussels is commonly used as a conservation and management tool in large rivers and streams. Relocation has been used to recolonize areas where mussel populations have been eliminated by prior pollution events, to remove mussels from construction zones and to re-establish populations of endangered species. More recently, relocation has been used to protect native freshwater mussels from colonization by the exotic zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha. We conducted a literature review of mussel relocations and evaluated their relative success as a conservation and management strategy. We found that 43% of all relocations were conducted because of construction projects that were forced to comply with the Endangered Species Act 1973 and that only 16% were monitored for five or more consecutive years. Most (43%) relocation projects were conducted from July to September, presumably a period when reproductive stress is relatively low for most species and the metabolic rate is sufficient for reburrowing in the substrate. The mortality of relocated mussels was unreported in 27% of projects; reported mortality varied widely among projects and species and was difficult to assess. The mean mortality of relocated mussels was 49% based on an average recovery rate of 43%. There is little guidance on the methods for relocation or for monitoring the subsequent long-term status of relocated mussels. Based on this evaluation, research is needed to develop criteria for selecting a suitable relocation site and to establish appropriate methods and guidelines for conducting relocation projects.     

基于模型试验的河床砂砾石层基本特性研究

为了经济可靠地确定深厚覆盖层的基本特性参数,以大渡河双江口水电站坝基河床砂砾石层基本特性研究为工程背景,进行大尺寸模型试验,研究河床砂砾石层的旁压模量和动探击数随密度、级配以及上覆压力的变化规律。根据室内模型试验结果,结合现场旁压试验及钻孔试验成果,推断出坝址区河床砂砾石相关层位的密度,并依此进行砂砾石室内力学试验,获得设计所需力学参数。研究成果可为深厚覆盖层基本特性测试提供新的方法。     

基于BP神经网络-马尔科夫链模型的隧道围岩位移预测

在隧道工程施工中,围岩位移预测起着很重要的作用。将BP神经网络-马尔科夫链模型引入到隧道围岩位移预测中来,通过对训练样本的学习,利用BP神经网络实现了对位移时间序列的滚动预测,同时得到了实测值与预测值的相对误差;在此基础上利用马尔科夫链对相对误差进行修正,有效地提高了预测结果的精度。并将该模型应用于某公路隧道拱顶下沉位移时序预测中,结果表明该模型具有精度高、科学可靠的特点,为隧道围岩变形的预测提供了新的途径。     

Short communication. Pipelines as a refuge for freshwater snails

In the lower River Murray, Australia, populations of gastropods have declined markedly over the past 40 years. Of the native fauna of about 18 species, only the ancylid Ferrissia petterdi remains common (but in patches), and another five species feature in sporadic local resurgences. Until recently the viviparid Notopala was thought to be extinct. The introduced physid Physa acuta is widespread, but in low numbers. The decline probably is associated with flow regulation, high turbidity and the introduction of common carp. Snail populations have persisted, however, in irrigation pipelines fed from the river, where they periodically cause blockages. This paper reports the discovery of the only known populaion of Notopala hanleyi in a pipeline where the inner wall accumulates microbial and other organic matter, providing high quality food for snails. In the Murray before regulation most of the periphytic biomass was probably microbial, as fluctuating water levels would have maintained littoral communities in a highly productive, early state of succession his postulated that, by stabilizing seasonal water levels, regulation has promoted the production of filamentous green algae, an inferior food source, and so displaced snail populations from the open aquatic environment.     

浙江省水域调查录入系统的设计和应用

浙江省水域调查录入系统将调查数据与电子地图相整合,对分类水域数据进行统计计算,并对输入数据进行合理性和完整性检查,得到调查范围内现有水域的详细数据,实现了水域调查数据输入、计算、统计和查询的数字化管理,提高了工作效率和工作质量,为各地下阶段水域保护规划编制和水域管理工作提供了数据支持。对该系统的设计原则、功能和技术设计等作了介绍。     

基于CT-连续加荷水泥乳化沥青混凝土细观损伤规律研究

利用CT技术对水泥乳化沥青混凝土的细观损伤过程进行实时扫描观测,获得了混凝土试件在连续加荷下的CT图像。通过采用直观分析法、CT数分析法、CT数与损伤变量关系3种方法分析表明,水泥乳化沥青混凝土的破坏过程可分为压密、扩容、裂纹扩展、破坏4个阶段,同时混凝土在受压过程中具有韧性,在极限荷载之前各断面处于压密和微扩容的强化阶段,极限荷载之后混凝土从损伤到破坏发展比较平稳。     

Automated system for removal and pneumatic transport of fly ash from electric precipitator hoppers

A system for removal and pneumatic transport of fly ash is examined, in which air pulses act on batches (pistons) of ash formed in a duct. Studies are made of the effect of several physical parameters on the force required to displace a piston of ash and these serve as a basis for choosing a system for removal and pneumatic transport of ash simultaneously from several hoppers of an electric precipitator. This makes it possible to separate the ash particles according to size without introducing additional components. Formulas are given for calculating the structural and dynamic parameters of this system and measurements of indirect dynamic parameters are used to calculate the input-output characteristics of the system. In order to optimize the system, configurations for summing several ducts into a single transport duct for pneumatic ash transport are proposed. Some variants of dry ash utilization and the advantages of producing of size-separated particles are considered. __________ Translated from élektricheskie Stantsii, No. 2, pp. 26–30 (2008).     

The flood pulse advantage and the restoration of river-floodplain systems

The ‘flood pulse advantage’ is the amount by which fish yield per unit mean water area is increased by a natural, predictable flood pulse. Evidence for this increase is presented from tropical and temperate fisheries. It is argued that increasing multispecies fish yield by restoring the natural hydrological regime is consistent with increasing production of other trophic levels and with restoration from ecological and aesthetic viewpoints. When applied to a river-floodplain system, this restoration would provide a large, self-sustaining potential for recreation, commercial exploitation, and flood control. An interim ‘natural flood pulse’ restoration approach is proposed for systems modified for navigation. This approach approximates the natural hydrological regime in a river reach and is intended as a first step in the long process of restoring the watershed.     

浅谈天湖水电站水轮机运行故障及处理措施

简述天湖水电站投运以来各种故障的表现形式，分析其原因，提出了相应的处理方法及措施，并对合理利用国内外设备提出建议。