Seismic fragility assessment of a tall reinforced concrete chimney

In China, a considerable proportion of reinforced concrete (RC) industrial chimneys in operation was designed and constructed in accordance with less rigorous outdated seismic criteria during the end of 19th and early 20th century. However, few research works have been reported till date on a realistic overall assessment of the seismic performance of these existing aging RC chimney structures. Therefore, in this study, fragilities of existing RC chimney were studied. For this purpose, an existing 240 m tall RC chimney was selected and structurally modeled with a lumped mass beam (stick) model by means of the OpenSees analysis program. In order to capture the uncertainties in ground motion realizations, a series of 21 ground motions are selected from the Next Generation Attenuation database as the input motions. To develop the analytical fragility curves, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis of the studied RC chimney was then carried out using the selected input motions, which were normalized to different excitation levels. The section curvature ductility ratio was considered as the damage index. Based on material strain and sectional analysis, four limit states (LSs) were defined for five damage state. The seismic responses of the all sections were utilized to evaluate the likelihood of exceeding the LSs. Then the peak ground acceleration (PGA)‐based seismic fragility curves of the structure were constructed assuming a lognormal distribution. Finally, under the light of these fragility curves, the damage risks in existing RC chimney were discussed. The analytical results indicated that for design level earthquake of PGA = 0.1 g (g is the gravitational acceleration) and the maximum considered earthquake of PGA = 0.22 g, the probabilities of exceeding the light damage state were around 1.5% and 44%, respectively, while the exceedance probabilities corresponding to moderate, extensive and complete damage states were approximately zero in both cases. On the other hand, fragility analysis revealed that the RC chimney structure had considerable ductility capacity and was capable to withstand a strong earthquake with some structural damages. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于地震易损性解析函数的概率地震风险应用研究

在采用全概率方法的基于性能的地震工程研究中,定量反映地震作用和工程结构中存在的不确定性是研究的关键。利用地震易损性和地震风险的概率解析函数,针对一栋按我国相关规范设计的五层三跨钢筋混凝土框架结构进行了地震易损性分析和风险评估。采用100条实际地震动作为输入以考虑地震动的不确定性,提出了基于控制变换拉丁超立方体抽样技术的随机Pushover方法以考虑结构不确定性对其抗震能力的影响。结果表明：算例结构在50年内发生完全破坏的概率不超过2%,发生严重破坏的概率不超过10%,发生轻微破坏的概率基本不超过63.2%,基本满足我国“小震不坏、中震可修、大震不倒”的三水准要求。     

锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性分析

钢筋锈蚀是影响钢筋混凝土结构耐久性的一个重要因素,会引起结构的自振周期延长、地震需求变化及抗震能力衰减,使得锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性分析不同于未锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构。以一栋按我国规范设计的RC框架结构为研究对象,分别建立了未锈蚀和锈蚀结构的非线性有限元模型并进行了模型验证。分别采用云图法和条带法计算得到了钢筋混凝土结构在未锈蚀和锈蚀两种工况下的地震易损性曲线和函数参数,对锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性分析的特殊性及其对地震易损性分析结果的影响进行了分析。分析结果表明：不考虑钢筋锈蚀引起的结构自振周期延长会错误估计锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性水平。采用云图法分析锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性会出现锈蚀结构的极限状态失效概率低于未锈蚀结构的情况。而条带法比云图法可以更好地反映钢筋锈蚀对钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性的影响。忽略钢筋锈蚀引起的结构抗震能力衰减会低估锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性水平,建议在锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性分析中采用基于Pushover的极限状态定义方法。     

基于机器学习的钢筋混凝土柱失效模式两阶段判别方法增强出版（附加材料可在文章详情页“评审附件”下载）

钢筋混凝土柱在侧向地震力作用下具有弯曲、剪切和弯剪三种失效模式。不同的失效模式下钢筋混凝土柱具有不同的地震损伤特征。因此,准确地判别钢筋混凝土柱的失效模式对于准确评估钢筋混凝土结构的抗震性能具有重要意义。利用已有的钢筋混凝土柱滞回加载试验数据,采用机器学习方法,提出了一种钢筋混凝土柱失效模式两阶段判别方法。其中,第一阶段以钢筋混凝土柱的基本设计参数为输入变量,采用机器学习中的回归算法,建立钢筋混凝土柱的受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形预测模型。第二阶段以钢筋混凝土柱的受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形作为输入变量,采用机器学习中的分类算法,对钢筋混凝土柱的失效模式进行自动判别,实现了准确判别钢筋混凝土柱失效模式的目的。研究结果表明：极端随机树、AdaBoost、随机森林和梯度提升算法分别对受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形的预测效果最佳;极端随机树、梯度提升算法和最近邻居法分别对弯曲失效、剪切失效和弯剪失效具有最佳的分类效果;相比已有的钢筋混凝土柱失效模式分类方法,提出的两阶段分类方法具有与真实失效模式最为接近的分类结果,分类精度可以达到96%。     

Seismic fragility analysis of reinforced concrete structures considering reinforcement corrosion

钢筋锈蚀是影响钢筋混凝土结构耐久性的一个重要因素，会引起结构的自振周期延长、地震需求变化及抗震能力衰减，使得锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性分析不同于未锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构。以一栋按我国规范设计的RC框架结构为研究对象，分别建立了未锈蚀和锈蚀结构的非线性有限元模型并进行了模型验证。分别采用云图法和条带法计算得到了钢筋混凝土结构在未锈蚀和锈蚀两种工况下的地震易损性曲线和函数参数，对锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性分析的特殊性及其对地震易损性分析结果的影响进行了分析。分析结果表明：不考虑钢筋锈蚀引起的结构自振周期延长会错误估计锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性水平。采用云图法分析锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的地震易损性会出现锈蚀结构的极限状态失效概率低于未锈蚀结构的情况。而条带法比云图法可以更好地反映钢筋锈蚀对钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性的影响。忽略钢筋锈蚀引起的结构抗震能力衰减会低估锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性水平，建议在锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构地震易损性分析中采用基于Pushover的极限状态定义方法。     

A machine-learning-based two-step method for failure mode classification of reinforced concrete columns

钢筋混凝土柱在侧向地震力作用下具有弯曲、剪切和弯剪三种失效模式。不同的失效模式下钢筋混凝土柱具有不同的地震损伤特征。因此，准确地判别钢筋混凝土柱的失效模式对于准确评估钢筋混凝土结构的抗震性能具有重要意义。利用已有的钢筋混凝土柱滞回加载试验数据，采用机器学习方法，提出了一种钢筋混凝土柱失效模式两阶段判别方法。其中，第一阶段以钢筋混凝土柱的基本设计参数为输入变量，采用机器学习中的回归算法，建立钢筋混凝土柱的受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形预测模型。第二阶段以钢筋混凝土柱的受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形作为输入变量，采用机器学习中的分类算法，对钢筋混凝土柱的失效模式进行自动判别，实现了准确判别钢筋混凝土柱失效模式的目的。研究结果表明：极端随机树、AdaBoost、随机森林和梯度提升算法分别对受弯承载力、受剪承载力、弯曲变形和剪切变形的预测效果最佳；极端随机树、梯度提升算法和最近邻居法分别对弯曲失效、剪切失效和弯剪失效具有最佳的分类效果；相比已有的钢筋混凝土柱失效模式分类方法，提出的两阶段分类方法具有与真实失效模式最为接近的分类结果，分类精度可以达到96%。     

考虑多维地震作用的高耸钢筋混凝土烟囱结构易损性分析

竖向地震作用对高耸烟囱结构动力响应有不可忽略的影响。选用240m高的某钢筋混凝土烟囱作为研究对象,考虑结构损伤,通过有限元软件ABAQUS,采用复合壳单元建立相应的非线性有限元分析模型。为考虑地震动的不确定性,根据谱相容性原则,选择20条合理地震动记录,进行增量动力分析。输入的地震动分别为一维、二维、三维。分别以材料应变和地面峰值加速度作为结构地震需求参数和地震动强度参数,结合增量动力分析获得的结构地震响应,采用能力需求比模型的曲线拟合法计算易损性曲线。通过钢筋和混凝土的材料应变定义四个损伤状态限值,最终得到在不同维数地震动输入时高耸钢筋混凝土烟囱结构的地震易损性曲线和倒塌概率曲线。研究结果表明,考虑多维地震作用比只考虑一维地震作用时高耸烟囱的结构易损性和倒塌概率增大。     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of process towers using fragility curves

This study focuses on the seismic vulnerability assessment of process towers. A 96‐m process tower, located at the Shazand Refinery, is considered for a case study sample. The vulnerability of this structure is expressed with the development of fragility curves, which provide the probability of exceeding a prescribed level of damage for a wide range of ground motion intensities. The methodology of developing fragility curves for process towers is shown. The developed fragility curves can be very useful for emergency management agencies and insurance companies wishing to estimate the overall loss after an earthquake. The vulnerability of nonstructural equipments of tower is also assessed in subsequent step. To model the process tower with its base details, a nonlinear finite element model is generated. It was found that the fragility curves should be developed for external pressure condition because it is more critical state of loading. The results show that the damage to the process tower occurs in the shell; and the other types of damages, i.e. yielding of anchor bolts, structural damage to foundation and overturning of tower, do not occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic capacity assessment of postmainshock damaged containment structures using nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis

This paper investigates the structural performance and seismic capacity of the postmainshock damaged containment structure through the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). To evaluate the seismic capacity with minimum uncertainty, the damage measure (DM) and intensity measure (IM) for IDA curves are selected in term of the coefficient of variation. The IDA using mainshock records is implemented to examine the seismic damage process of a containment structure and determine key damage states. The static cyclic loading analysis and aftershock IDA are also conducted on mainshock‐damaged containment structures to investigate the effect of initial damage states on the dynamic characteristics of structures. Finally, based on IDA results, limit states of a containment structure are defined using a generalized multidimensional limit‐state function that allows considering the dependence between the mainshock‐damaged level and residual seismic capacity. These proposed bidimensional limit‐state functions can be used in the fragility analysis and risk assessment of containment structures under mainshock–aftershock, which can improve the accuracy of seismic assessment.     

Fragility-based assessment of typical mid-rise and low-rise RC buildings in Turkey

This paper focuses on the seismic fragility assessment of typical low-rise and mid-rise reinforced concrete (RC) buildings in Turkey by considering Düzce Damage database, which was compiled after the two devastating earthquakes in 1999 that affected the Marmara region. A set of fragility curves is developed by making use of the building characteristics in the database. The generated fragility curve set is referred as “reference” since it forms the basis of a parametric study. Then the influence of sampling techniques, sample size, type of hysteresis model and limit state definitions on the fragility curves is investigated. The results revealed that the uncertainty in capacity and degradation characteristics have a significant influence whereas the other investigated parameters do not seem to have an important role on the final fragility functions. In the last part of the study, the damage observed in Düzce buildings after 1999 earthquakes is estimated by using the generated fragility curves for low-rise and mid-rise RC frame buildings. Estimated damage distributions seem to be comparable with the actual damage data.     

Seismic performance analysis and evaluation of tall structures using grille-type steel plate composite shear walls

Grille-type steel plate composite (GSPC) shear wall is an innovative wall system consisting of concrete cores, steel faceplates, steel tie plates, and steel channels with more advantages than conventional reinforced concrete (RC) walls, including better ductility, higher bearing capacity, and easy-modular characteristics. This paper mainly discusses the seismic performance and damage resistance of GSPC walls to the entire structure from the aspect of the structural level. Three nonlinear numerical models of high-rise structures with different structural heights and types were established by PERFORM-3D software to study the influence of GSPC walls on the change in structural internal forces and deformations compared with RC walls. One of these structures was selected to conduct the seismic fragility analysis based on the incremental dynamic analysis and to assess the structure's seismic performance with GSPC walls. Finally, the seismic damage prediction method was used to evaluate the damage levels of the GSPC wall structure. Results indicate that the structures with GSPC walls suffer more significant seismic forces than those with RC walls, although they experience lesser structural deformations. Moreover, GSPC walls can effectively improve the structure's collapse and seismic damage resistance.     

面内往复荷载作用下足尺砌体填充墙的易损性研究

为了研究钢筋混凝土(RC)框架结构中砌体填充墙的地震易损性，进行了6个足尺含填充墙RC框架试件的面内往复加载试验。各试件中RC框架的设计参数均相同，其中3个试件含普通黏土砖填充墙，另外3个试件含水泥空心砌块填充墙。试验过程中，记录了砌体填充墙的损伤发展过程，并以墙体裂缝宽度和破碎坠落现象作为损伤指标，定义了“明显破坏”、“严重破坏”和“危及安全”等3个损伤状态。在此基础上，以层间位移角作为工程需求参数，建立了普通黏土砖和水泥空心砌块填充墙的易损性曲线。易损性分析结果表明，当试件的面内侧向变形达到GB 50011—2010《建筑抗震设计规范》规定的框架结构弹性层间位移角限值时，黏土砖和空心砌块填充墙均极有可能达到或超越“明显破坏”状态，且空心砌块填充墙尚有22%的概率达到或超越“严重破坏”状态。与黏土砖填充墙相比，水泥空心砌块填充墙的易损性参数具有更大的离散性，且其整体性更差，当侧向变形较大时会出现破碎砌块坠落的现象。根据试验结果，给出了砌体墙最大残余裂缝宽度、最大裂缝宽度和层间位移角之间的近似相关关系。     

Seismic design requirements for reinforced concrete piers considering aftershock-induced seismic hazard

The main purpose of this study is to develop an estimation procedure of seismic design level setting for reinforced concrete (RC) piers considering aftershock-induced seismic hazards. This work develops an assessment method of the seismic hazards induced by aftershocks and takes an example of the Chi–Chi Earthquake in Taiwan. The number of aftershocks is assumed to follow the modified Gutenberg–Richter law with lower and upper bounds when analysing the cumulative density function of the magnitude of the aftershock within a specified post-mainshock period for the earthquake. Additionally, this work considers the spatial uncertainty in the hypocentres of aftershocks to assess the aftershock-induced seismic hazards. Fragility curves and residual factors of damaged RC piers are used in the transition probability matrix of Markov Chain model for considering the cumulative damage induced by aftershocks by incorporating uncertainty into aftershock events, as well as into structural capacity and residual factors corresponding to a specified damage state, the exceedance probabilities for various damage states can be estimated using Markov Chain model and Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, in the case study, the proposed procedure is used to determine the important factor in the preliminary seismic design of typical RC piers for the Chi–Chi Earthquake in Taiwan.     

Closed-form seismic fragility estimates,sensitivity analysis and importance measures for reinforced concrete columns in two-column bents

Closed-form seismic fragility estimates are developed for reinforced concrete (RC) columns in bridges with two-column bents. Deformation and shear modes of failure are considered. The closed-form solutions incorporate the important uncertainties associated with both structural properties and ground motion characteristics. Probabilistic capacity and demand models for RC columns in two-column bents are used for the fragility formulation. Sensitivity and importance measures are computed for the parameters and random variables, respectively, included in the limit state function expressed in terms of probabilistic capacity and demand models. The sensitivity measures suggest that the vulnerability of RC columns in two-column bents can be effectively improved by using high strength reinforcement for the column confinement, reducing the spacing between confining reinforcement, and limiting the use of high strength concrete. The importance measures suggest that the random errors in the probabilistic capacity and demand models represent the principal sources of uncertainty. Thus, an approximate closed-form solution for a fragility estimation of a RC column can be developed by considering only the uncertainty in the random errors of the capacity and demand models. Only a marginal difference exists between the closed-form fragility estimates and the corresponding predictive fragility estimates that include all uncertainties.     

Bedding effects in bulk solids in silos: experiments and a polar hypoplastic approach

This paper is concerned with bedding effects in granular bulk solids in silos. Finite element (FE)-analyses were performed for a cylindrical thin-walled steel model silo with imperfections containing dry sand. Numerical calculations were carried out for an axisymmetric case with a polar hypoplastic constitutive relation which can capture the salient properties of granular materials. In the FE-calculations, different types of wall displacements along the silo height were taken into account to model roughly the formation of buckles due to initial imperfections of the silo wall. The effects of the initial void ratio and mean grain diameter of bulk solids, initial stress state, wall roughness, and size and form of buckles were studied. The numerical results clearly show that the modelling of a bedding effect of bulk solids in silos by means of springs is too simple and can lead to strongly unrealistic predictions of the bedding modulus.     

钢筋混凝土框架结构的损伤状态相关余震易损性分析

一次主震过后通常伴有多次余震发生,由于主、余震间隔时间较短,主震损伤结构通常要遭受进一步的余震作用.为了评估震损结构的余震安全,提出了一种损伤状态相关的余震易损性分析方法.该方法采用有限次整体调幅的主余震序列作为输入,利用Park-Ang指数描述结构在主余震序列作用下的主震损伤和累积损伤,基于logistic回归方法生...     

钢筋混凝土框架结构地震易损性分析

本文以一榀7层的钢筋混凝土框架结构为分析对象,采用SAP2000建立有限元模型,选取非线性Nlink单元来模拟梁和柱两端的塑性角,其中柱铰单元采用纤维PMM铰,梁铰单元设置弯矩铰。分别指定最大层间位移角和最大顶点位移角作为结构地震需求参数,并定义了相应的破坏状态。输入8条地震动记录进行结构地震易损性分析,得到了相应的易损性曲线。该方法可为结构的抗震性能评价提供参考。     

Vulnerability assessment of a high‐rise building subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences

Strong aftershocks have the potential to further aggravate the damage state of structures, and much less attention has been given to the seismic vulnerability of high‐rise buildings than that of low‐ to medium‐rise buildings. This study assesses the seismic vulnerability of a 32‐storey frame–core tube building by performing the incremental dynamic analysis on the material‐based three‐dimensional numerical model. A storey damage model based on the material damage is developed using the weighted average method. Eighteen recorded mainshock–aftershock sequences, whose mainshock records match the target spectrum, are selected. The results indicate that the developed stroey damage model can effectively reflect the additional damage induced by aftershocks. Strong aftershocks have high potential to change the location of weak storeys. Notably, shifts of weak storeys are observed in more than 30% of aftershocks with relative spectral acceleration of 0.8. As the mainshock‐induced damage state becomes more severe, the mainshock‐damaged building becomes increasingly fragile to the aftershock excitation and more sensitive to aftershock intensities. The probability of exceeding severe damage state increases from 35.3% to 62.1% due to the effects of strong aftershocks. The results in this study can provide supports to the seismic resilience assessment of this high‐rise building.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of a Californian multi-frame curved concrete box girder viaduct using fragility curves

Seismic response of multi-frame curved viaducts has been proved to be very complex due to typically inherent irregularities identified in this class of bridge structures such as deck in-plane curvature, altitudinal irregularity and deck discontinuity. The discontinuity provided by the expansion joint has made this class of bridges prone to catastrophic damages caused by multiple collisions between adjacent frames during both torsional and translational modes of responses as well as deck unseating at the expansion joints. This paper presents the seismic response of a Californian multi-frame curved concrete box girder viaduct, considering four different radii of curvature and five altitudinal coefficients, using fragility curves. Fragility curves are developed by considering different sources of uncertainties related to earthquakes, structural geometries and material properties. The full nonlinear time-history analyses are performed utilising 3-D numerical bridge models generated in OpenSees finite element platform. The results show that bridge vulnerability increases with increasing irregularity in bridge plan and elevation. It is observed that bridge components and system fragility show different sensitivity to each type and level of irregularity for each damage state. In addition, the obtained results can be used to aid seismic retrofit prioritisation, financial loss estimation, pre-earthquake planning and design improvement processes.     

路堤震害风险概率评价与管理研究

 路堤震害在破坏性地震中十分普遍,开展路堤震害风险概率评价并提出合理的震害风险管理方法对提高公路抗震能力和区域防灾减灾能力具有重要意义。进行路堤震害等级划分,选取路堤震害损伤参数,建立路堤震害等级与震害损伤参数的对应关系;以连霍高速公路西宝段K1125+470处路堤为例开展基于CPSHA的公路地震危险性评价,基于IDA和PSDA的路堤震害易损性评价以及基于危险性曲线的路堤震害风险概率评价;在明确路堤震害风险可接受度的基础上提出路堤震害风险管理方法,验证挡土墙对提高路堤抗震性能的积极作用。研究结果表明：连霍高速公路西宝段地震危险性评价结果比第四代地震区划图略高,这与目前渭河断陷盆地地震活跃的现实是一致的;PGA(PGA为地震动峰值加速度)达到0.6 g时,路堤超越严重损伤的概率为65.910%,达到0.8 g时,超越严重损伤的概率为99.995%,说明路堤震害易损性较高;路堤未来50 a超越严重损伤的风险概率为36.46%,发生基本完好和轻微损伤的风险概率为28.49%;以路堤未来50 a发生毁坏的风险概率40%为风险可接受度,路堤震害风险管理方法适用于新建路堤的抗震设计和已建路堤的抗震加固;未来50 a有挡土墙路堤超越严重损伤的风险概率比无挡土墙路堤低15.29%,发生基本完好和轻微损伤的风险概率比无挡土墙路堤高15.62%。