Federal incentives for energy development

This paper identifies and quantifies the incentives utilized by the Federal government to encourage the development of U.S. energy resources over the past half century. The incentives granted to the six major conventional sources of energy—nuclear energy, hydropower, coal, oil, natural gas, electricity—are categorized according to eight general types: creation (prohibition) of organizations, taxation, fees, disbursements, requirements, traditional government services, non-traditional government services, and market activity. It is found that through the fiscal year 1977 the Federal government has expended $211 billion for incentives to encourage energy resource development. These incentives were distributed in the following manner: commercial nuclear power, $18 billion; hydropower, $15 billion; coal, $10 billion; oil, $101 billion; natural gas, $16 billion; electricity transmission/distribution, $70 billion. The implications of these findings are discussed briefly.     

Japan''s nuclear energy policy: from firm commitment to difficult dilemma addressing growing stocks of plutonium, program delays, domestic opposition and international pressure

Since 1956, Japan has been on a path to reduce its dependence on foreign energy sources through the development of nuclear power. This paper examines the origins of this commitment, the changing social issues and the current dilemma Japan faces regarding the future of its nuclear energy policy and its efforts to overcome the domestic and international pressures to ensure safety and security.

Galvanized by international initiatives and further motivated by the oil crises in the 1970s, Japan's commitment to develop a closed nuclear fuel cycle, one which reprocesses fuel from thermal reactors for use in advanced fast breeder reactors, has remained resolute. However, program delays, international security concerns over the plutonium, a weapons-grade nuclear material and one of the products of reprocessing, and increasing public opposition to various components of the Atomic Energy Commissions’ Long-Term Program for Development and Utilization of Nuclear Energy, have put pressure on the government to resolve these issues.

The commitment to develop the technology on one hand is commendable however it has contributed to the dilemma the Japanese nuclear industry now faces: a growing stockpile of plutonium and no readily available means of reducing it. With growing public involvement, finding a straightforward technology solution is increasingly difficult.

In 1995, an accident at Monju, one of the first prototype fast breeder reactors in Japan, prompted the Commission to initiate the first Roundtable Conference. The purpose of the Conference was to open the policy making process in an effort to determine a “national consensus” on nuclear energy. Further accidents and on-going opposition further slowed the implementation of the Program, however, in the latest Program, released in 2000, the Commission attempts to address these issues while building in a new style of flexibility in order to allow for greater options in the future.     

Steps toward the hydrogen economy

The hydrogen economy is defined as the industrial system in which one of the universal energy carriers is hydrogen (the other is electricity) and hydrogen is oxidized to water that may be reused by applying an external energy source for dissociation of water into its component elements hydrogen and oxygen. There are three different primary energy-supply system classes which may be used to implement the hydrogen economy, namely, fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas, and as yet largely unused supplies such as shale oil, oil from tar sands, natural gas from geo-pressured locations, etc.), nuclear reactors including fission reactors and breeders or fusion nuclear reactors over the very long term, and renewable energy sources (including hydroelectric power systems, wind-energy systems, ocean thermal energy conversion systems, geothermal resources, and a host of direct solar energy-conversion systems including biomass production, photovoltaic energy conversion, solar thermal systems, etc.). Examination of present costs of hydrogen production by any of these means shows that the hydrogen economy favored by people searching for a non-polluting gaseous or liquid energy carrier will not be developed without new discoveries or innovations. Hydrogen may become an important market entry in a world with most of the electricity generated in nuclear fission or breeder reactors when high-temperature waste heat is used to dissociate water in chemical cycles or new inventions and innovations lead to low-cost hydrogen production by applying as yet uneconomical renewable solar techniques that are suitable for large-scale production such as direct water photolysis with suitably tailored band gaps on semiconductors or low-cost electricity supplies generated on ocean-based platforms using temperature differences in the tropical seas.     

A comparative analysis of three of ERDA''s major R & D programs

The benefits attributable to alternative energy R & D programs should be evaluated in terms of how well the technologies contribute as integral elements of the total United States energy system (rather than as isolated entities, as has typically been done in the past). Thus, the present model simulates the dynamics of the evolution of the total energy system by requiring both existing and new technologies to compete for introduction (i.e. commercialization) on a cost-competitive basis that considers the time phasing of

1. (1) retirement of energy conversion facilities,

2. (2) growth in end-use demands, and

3. (3) escalation of the costs of extracting depleting domestic energy resources.

This approach contrasts with a static model used by the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), wherein assumptions must be made for each future year of interest for

1. (1) maximum capacity constraints for alternative types of conversion facilities and

2. (2) the cost of energy resources.

The present model is used to compare the relative consequences and merits of the technology products from the following three of ERDA's major energy R & D programs:

1. (1) the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR),

2. (2) synthetic fuels derived from coal and oil shale, and

3. (3) improved efficiencies for end-use devices (e.g. space heaters).

It is found that the development of synthetic fuels derived from coal and oil shale is the only alternative (of the three considered) that provides energy independence for the United States in the next fifty years. However, the possible collapse of the world oil cartel is shown to pose a major retardant to synfuels commercialization by the private sector until at least the end of the century. The substantial environmental impact from synfuels commercialization could be reduced significantly with the accelerated introduction of end-use utilizing devices with improved efficiencies. This latter program could result in a significant reduction in the costs of operating the United States energy ststem over the 60-yr period considered by the model. The discounted present value of this “cost reduction” (i.e. the “economic benefit”) would be two orders of magnitude greater than the R & D investment, at least one order of magnitude greater than the expected economic benefits from synfuels commercialization and two orders of magnitude greater than the economic benefits from the commercialization of the LMFBR. However, the lack of performance and cost studies of improved efficiency in end-use suggests increased funding for these technologies rather than reduced funding for the breeder.     

The economic costs of a nuclear moratorium

Although the present average cost of generating electricity from nuclear reactors is less than the average cost of power from fossil fuel plants, the pressures for additional regulatory controls on nuclear power plants raise the possibility that nuclear power might become unavailable as an energy alternative. With the help of a model of U.S. interfuel competition developed at SRI, implications of various alternative assumptions about the future availability of nuclear power are examined. The economic costs of a nuclear moratorium are evaluated for two different forecasts of energy-demand growth. The impacts of a nuclear moratorium on coal-production levels and petroleum imports are examined. Although the loss of the nuclear option is offset by a substantial increase in eastern and western coal production, the net present cost of this replacement—more than $100 billion—is substantial.     

Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis

One of the primary objectives of the United States’ federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses “real option” pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/yr. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal.     

A synfuels era for the United States?

This article surveys the liquid fuels picture for the year 2000 and concludes that transportation fuels will represent the critical domestic energy resource for the future. The United States must develop a synthetic fuels industry if it is to meet its transportation fuel needs while seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign crude oil. Synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale (methanol, gasoline, and diesel fuel) and methanol from biomass are depicted as the emerging options of the future. Within these options, methanol-from-coal is highlighted as providing the most technically versatile, economically viable, and environmentally sound choice. Based largely on transportation needs, the article presents a methanol market demand forecast calling for the consumption of 25 billion gal/y by the year 2000—enough to supply a fleet of 25 million methanol cars and provide for considerable methanol usage in the industrial, utility, and chemical sectors. Thus, about one out of every six cars in the automobile fleet would be operating on methanol if this forecast holds true. A survey of the cost estimates for producing alternative transportation fuels in the future shows, that methanol-from-coal could prove to be least expensive motor fuel: roughly two-thirds of the price of gasoline from crude oil and one-half the price of methanol from biomass. The article also poses some of the challenges facing the synfuels industry if it is going to overcome the entry barriers facing the establishment of a new fuel in the liquid fuels market place.     

Cost evaluation of two potential nuclear power plants for hydrogen production

Hydrogen is recognized as one of the most promising alternative fuels to meet the energy demand for the future by providing a carbon-free solution. In regards to hydrogen production, there has been increasing interest to develop, innovate and commercialize more efficient, effective and economic methods, systems and applications. Nuclear based hydrogen production options through electrolysis and thermochemical cycles appear to be potentially attractive and sustainable for the expanding hydrogen sector. In the current study, two potential nuclear power plants, which are planned to be built in Akkuyu and Sinop in Turkey, are evaluated for hydrogen production scenarios and cost aspects. These two plants will employ the pressurized water reactors with the electricity production capacities of 4800 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1200 MW) for Akkuyu nuclear power plant and 4480 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1120 MW) for Sinop nuclear power plant. Each of these plants are expected to cost about 20 billion US dollars. In the present study, these two plants are considered for hydrogen production and their cost evaluations by employing the special software entitled “Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Program (HEEP)” developed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which includes numerous options for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation. The costs of capital, fuel, electricity, decommissioning and consumables are calculated and evaluated in detail for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation in Turkey. The results show that the amount of hydrogen cost varies from 3.18 $/kg H₂ to 6.17 $/kg H₂.     

关于核燃料技术经济性的探讨

从宏观和微观角度对核燃料的技术经济性进行评价分析.核燃料热值高,比化石燃料产出净能高3～4倍.核燃料(核电)拥有巨大的温室气体减排潜力,燃烧时不排放二氧化硫、氮氧化物,不产生烟尘、煤渣,是节能减排效果非常好的清洁能源.据IPCC的研究,在各种发电技术中,石油的温室气体排放量为600～1200g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h),煤、褐煤为800—1800g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h),而核电的排放量平均值仅为10g二氧化碳当量/(kW.h).至2030年,可再生能源发电和核电可减排温室气体近60×108t二氧化碳当量,其中核电约占1/3.核燃料资源丰富,可循环利用、实现增殖,从而扩大了核燃料资源.现有天然铀热中子堆可用百年;快中子堆可提高铀资源利用率60倍以上,可用千年;聚变核燃料氘可供人类使用百亿年,且无放射性.可见,核能是化石能源最有前途的替代能源.同时,核燃料能量密度高,体积/小,所需运力少,价格稳定,供应可靠.核电的投资成本分别高出煤电、气电约50％和140％,而发电总成本煤电、气电仍比核电高出约30％,根本原因是核燃料费用低,只占发电总成本的23％.核电的燃料成本优势除弥补了自身投资成本高的缺点以外,还形成了发电总成本低的竞争优势.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity options for the UK

The UK electricity mix will change significantly in the future. This provides an opportunity to consider the full life cycle sustainability of the options currently considered as most suitable for the UK: gas, nuclear, offshore wind and photovoltaics (PV). In an attempt to identify the most sustainable options and inform policy, this paper applies a sustainability assessment framework developed previously by the authors to compare these electricity options. To put discussion in context, coal is also considered as a significant contributor to the current electricity supply. Each option is assessed and compared in terms of its economic, environmental and social implications, using a range of sustainability indicators. The results show that no one technology is superior and that certain trade‐offs must be made. For example, nuclear and offshore wind power have the lowest life cycle environmental impacts, except for freshwater ecotoxicity for which gas is the best option; coal and gas are the cheapest options (£74 and 66/MWh, respectively, at 10% discount), but both have high global warming potential (1072 and 379 g CO₂ eq./kWh); PV has relatively low global warming potential (88 g CO₂ eq./kWh) but high cost (£302/MWh), as well as high ozone layer and resource depletion. Nuclear, wind and PV increase some aspects of energy security: in the case of nuclear, this is due to inherent fuel storage capabilities (energy density 290 million times that of natural gas), whereas wind and PV decrease fossil fuel import requirements by up to 0.2 toe/MWh. However, all three options require additional installed capacity for grid management. Nuclear also poses complex risk and intergenerational questions such as the creation of 10.16 m³/TWh of nuclear waste for long‐term geological storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How important are current energy mix choices on future sustainability? Case study: Belgium and Spain—projections towards 2020–2030

Despite recent consumption decrease due to recession, European electricity sector is struggling to reach ambitious targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Our objective is to carry out a macro analysis of the energy mix in two European countries: Belgium and Spain. Life Cycle Assessments are carried for 2005 as well as for seven possible referenced scenarios to reach EU and also national legal objectives at the horizon 2020 and 2030. Ambitious renewable energy sources’ deployment plans can decrease impacts on the environment significantly as those sources replace polluting traditional sources, such as coal/lignite, oil or gas. When concentrating on projections for the future in Spain, results show that a mix with little coal and oil replaced by up to 54% of RES-E energy sources could bring environmental benefits with CO₂ emissions equivalent around 0.2 kg per kWh produced (compared with 0.54 kg in 2005). In Belgium, all future scenarios presented include more coal and gas with a limited share of RES-E; those mixes present more environmental harmful impacts (up to 0.56 kg CO₂ equivalent). This is why RES-E deployment is crucial as long as it is part of an electricity mix with reduced quantities of traditional fossil fuels.     

Japan's energy outlook

Japan is practically totally dependent on expensive imported oil and gas. The country's energy problem is further exacerbated by its high degree of industrialization and its rapid economic growth.According to government forecasts, based on the extrapolation of existing trends, the present rate of economic growth is expected to decline only very slightly during the first half of the 1980 decade, and even less in the second half.However, if this forecast is related to energy demand, it becomes clear that the bill for imported fuels would have to grow to an extent which the nation could not afford.The emphasis, therefore, must be placed on the energy problems of the near future. An estimate was made of the total amount of energy which could be made available by paying an affordable oil bill, while increasing at the same time domestically generated energy (by expansion of nuclear power plants and increased use of coal and solar energy), and replacing oil, whenever possible, with other fuels. The energy savings achievable by vigorous implementation of an extensive conservation program were also taken into account.It was found that in these circumstances the growth rate of the economy could not be maintained at the levels projected by the government.Thus, Japan has found itself in the unenviable position of letting energy deficiency curtail its economic growth, either by design or by the sheer weight of the oil bill.At this point, the political aspect of the energy problem comes to the fore because this delicate situation can only be managed in an orderly manner through a broad consensus of opinion as to what and how sacrifices should be made and shared equitably.     

Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector

Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.     

Lifecycle analysis of different urban transport options for Bangladesh

Once again, sustained high oil prices are forcing policy makers in oil importing countries to consider alternatives to oil products as transportation fuels. Unlike in the past, advancements in technology, relative success of some experiments and increased familiarity among and acceptance by the public of some alternatives indicate a higher likelihood of success. In particular, natural gas offers a couple of the best options as compressed natural gas (CNG) and chemical conversion of natural gas into diesel (gas-to-liquids, GTL). These options are likely to be most attractive in countries that have cheap access to natural gas. We compare lifetime costs of several individual transportation options for Bangladesh, an oil importer with natural gas reserves. The results are then used to inform the natural gas policy debate in the country. Assuming a natural gas price of $1.5 per million Btu, both the CNG and GTL options are competitive with conventional gasoline/diesel cars if the oil price stays higher than $35–40 per barrel. If natural gas price increases after new upstream developments, CNG becomes less attractive while GTL remains competitive up to $2.5 if capital costs of GTL facilities decline as expected. Under a government policy push (lower discounting), the breakeven price of oil falls to $30–35 per barrel.     

Fossil fuels and Nigeria's energy situation by the year 2000

The contributions of fossil fuels (coal, gas, petroleum, and wood) to Nigeria's energy requirements are reviewed and their future potentials and those of other resources (manure, solar, and nuclear energy) in the year 2000 assessed.     

Catalyzing strategic transformation to a low-carbon economy: A CCS roadmap for China

China now faces the three hard truths of thirsting for more oil, relying heavily on coal, and ranking first in global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Given these truths, two key questions must be addressed to develop a low-carbon economy: how to use coal in a carbon-constrained future? How to increase domestic oil supply to enhance energy security? Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may be a technological solution that can deal with today's energy and environmental needs while enabling China to move closer to a low-carbon energy future. This paper has been developed to propose a possible CCS roadmap for China. To develop the roadmap, we first explore major carbon capture opportunities in China and then identify critical CCS-enabling technologies, as well as analyze their current status and future prospects. We find that coal gasification or polygeneration in combination with CCS could be a nearly unbeatable combination for China's low-carbon future. Even without CCS, gasification offers many benefits: once coal is gasified into syngas, it can be used for many different purposes including for alternative fuels production, thereby increasing the domestic oil supply and the flexibility of the energy system.     

Steps toward passively safe, proliferation-resistant nuclear power

After about a 30-year hiatus of construction in the US but not in all involved countries, the designs for an improved water-cooled nuclear reactor will hopefully be developed by a consortium of nuclear reactor builders and users under an agreement with the US Department of Energy (DOE) and review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The construction of high-temperature, helium-cooled pebble-bed or prismatic reactors may herald the entry of new, safer, and less costly types of reactors to replace the water-cooled reactors of the past and current types. Nuclear breeder reactors hold the promise of limitless energy supplies without the use of fossil fuels or renewables at acceptable costs but this development program has been stalled periodically, especially in the US, when abundant low-cost uranium sources were added to the supply side.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

An analysis of the proposed Btu tax on the us economy

This paper examines the impacts of a Btu tax on energy on the United States economy. The analytical approach used in the analysis consisted of a general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and a government. The effects of imposing a tax on natural gas, coal, and nuclear power of 25.7 cents per million Btu and a tax on refined petroleum products of 59.9 cents per million Btu on prices and quantities are examined. The results are revealing. For example, a Btu tax on energy imposed at the point of production will result in lower output by the producing sectors (by about $122.4 billion), a decrease in the consumption of goods and services (by about $64.6 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $66.6 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of about $50.5 billion. In the case of the Btu tax being imposed at the point of consumption, there will be lower output by the producing sectors (by about $83.7 billion), a reduction in the consumption of goods and services (by about $48.3 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $49.5 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of $41.3 billion. Finally, when subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities.