Reforming fossil fuel prices in India: Dilemma of a developing economy

Over the period between 1990–1 and 2012–3, fossil fuel use on farms has risen and its indirect use in farming, particularly for non-energy purposes, is also growing. Consequently, both energy intensity and fossil fuel intensity are rising for Indian agriculture. But, these are declining for the aggregate Indian economy. Thus, revision of fossil fuel prices acquires greater significance for Indian agriculture than for rest of the economy. There are significant differences across crops. The crop-level analysis is supplemented by an alternative approach that utilizes a three-sector input–output (I–O) model for the Indian economy representing farming, fossil fuels, and rest of economy. Fossil fuels sector is assessed to portray, in general, strong forward linkages. The increase in total cost of farming, for a given change in fossil fuel prices, is estimated as a multiple of increase in direct input cost of fossil fuels in farming. From the three-sector aggregated economy this multiple was estimated at 3.99 for 1998–9. But it grew to 6.7 in 2007–8. The findings have stronger ramifications than commonly recognized, for inflation and cost of implementing the policy on food security.     

Effects of future fossil fuel use on CO2 levels in the atmosphere

A model based on fossil fuel use per capita and United Nations population predictions has been developed to predict global fossil fuel use and the resulting levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere. The results suggest levels of CO₂ will increase to between 415 and 421 ppm by 2025. Countries with energy-intensive economies will be responsible for the majority of CO₂ emissions, while nations with large populations but low energy consumption per capita will have less of an effect. A major increase in nuclear power generation will not have a significant impact on CO₂ levels over this time scale.     

A comparative study of dynamic changes in CO2 emission performance of fossil fuel power plants in China and Korea

This paper aims to conduct a comparative study of the changes in CO₂ emission performance of state-owned fossil fuel power plants between China and Korea. For this purpose, we combine the concept of the metafrontier Malmquist productivity index and the non-radial directional distance function to develop a new index called the non-radial metafrontier Malmquist CO₂ emission performance index (NMMCPI). This new methodology allows for the incorporation of technological heterogeneities and slack variables into the previously introduced Malmquist CO₂ emission performance index (MCPI). The NMMCPI can be derived by solving several non-radial data envelopment analysis (DEA) models. The NMMCPI can be decomposed into an efficiency change (EC) index, a best-practice gap change (BPC) index, and a technology gap change (TGC) index. By fixing the non-energy inputs, we measure the pure CO₂ emission performance change. Based on the proposed indices, the comparative study between Chinese and Korean fossil fuel power industries is conducted for the 2005–2010 period. Empirical results indicate significant differences in terms of various decomposed CO₂ emission performance changes between China and Korea. Korean power plants demonstrate improvements in innovation, while Chinese power plants demonstrate a higher ability for technological leadership. Some related policy implications are also proposed based on the empirical results.     

Household welfare implications of fossil fuel subsidy reforms in developing countries

With over 200 countries reaching an agreement with the stated aim of restricting global warming to “well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels” – the most comprehensive climate change agreement was recently signed. Though most of the hard work lies ahead, it marks an important first step for the collective global community to address climate change. Fossil fuels continue to remain one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and for many developing countries high levels fossil fuels continues to enable an overconsumption of fossil fuels. Given the sensitivity of governments to subsidy reforms, this study examines the household welfare implications of the removal of fossil fuel subsidies. It finds that while welfare implications are unambiguously positive for government the results are mixed for private households, although in an overwhelming majority of cases, the results are positive. However, even in the cases where the welfare implications are negative for private households we find that it is possible for governments to carry out the reforms in such a way as to be welfare improving to households incomes by compensating them with some of the fiscal savings gained from the subsidy reform.     

On forecasting electric utility fossil fuel consumption

The objective of the analysis is to develop a model to forecast the consumption of fossil fuels by electric utilities on a month-to-month basis. A scheme is devised and implemented that shares out for fossil fuel generation (net of coal), the consumption of residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, crude oil and natural gas. A multinomial logit specification is used whereby the share of each of these fuels is a function of relative prices, weather, time, seasonal factors and extraneous influences (e.g. a coal strike). The results, when compared to actual shares, prove to be most acceptable.     

Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model

This study aims at forecasting the most possible curve for domestic fossil fuel production of Turkey to help policy makers to develop policy implications for rapidly growing dependency problem on imported fossil fuels. The fossil fuel dependency problem is international in scope and context and Turkey is a typical example for emerging energy markets of the developing world. We developed a decision support system for forecasting fossil fuel production by applying a regression, ARIMA and SARIMA method to the historical data from 1950 to 2003 in a comparative manner. The method integrates each model by using some decision parameters related to goodness-of-fit and confidence interval, behavior of the curve, and reserves. Different forecasting models are proposed for different fossil fuel types. The best result is obtained for oil since the reserve classifications used it is much better defined them for the others. Our findings show that the fossil fuel production peak has already been reached; indicating the total fossil fuel production of the country will diminish and theoretically will end in 2038. However, production is expected to end in 2019 for hard coal, in 2024 for natural gas, in 2029 for oil and 2031 for asphaltite. The gap between the fossil fuel consumption and production is growing enormously and it reaches in 2030 to approximately twice of what it is in 2000.     

A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018.     

An assessment of fossil fuel energy use and CO2 emissions from farm field operations using a regional level crop and land use database for Canada

The Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA) is considered a potentially useful tool for investigating the impacts of biofuel feedstock production on rural land use. Fossil CO₂ emissions from fieldwork in the CEEMA model were upgraded with the Fossil Fuel Farm Fieldwork Energy and Emissions (F4E2) simulation model. There was very close agreement between the two models at the national level, but differences between the two models at the regional scale and among the three major land uses illustrated the need to revise CEEMA. Emission coefficients from the F4E2 model will give the upgraded CEEMA a more realistic response to the energy requirements by specific field operations and to differences between the major forms of land cover (annuals and perennials). The highest fossil fuel CO₂ emission intensity for fieldwork in 2001 was in Quebec at 0.19 t{CO₂}/ha, followed by Ontario at 0.17 t{CO₂}/ha, while the emission intensities were the lowest in Western Canada, at 0.12 t{CO₂}/ha. Fossil CO₂ emissions from just annual crops in Canada was 0.16 t/ha and the emissions from just harvesting perennial forages was 0.07 t{CO₂}/ha. Fieldwork to maintain summerfallow emitted only 0.02 t{CO₂}/ha.     

Incidence and impact: The regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform

Since fossil fuel subsidy reforms can induce significant distributional shifts and price shocks, effective compensation and social protection programs are crucial. Based on the statistical simulation model by Araar and Verme (2012), this study estimates the regional variability of direct welfare effects of removing fuel subsidies in Nigeria. Uncompensated subsidy removal is estimated to increase the national poverty rate by 3–4% on average. However, uniform cash compensation that appears effective at the national average, is found to fail to mitigate price shocks in 16 of 37 states – thus putting livelihoods (and public support for reforms) at risk. States that are estimated to incur the largest welfare shocks, coincide with hotspots of civil unrest following Nigeria's 2012 subsidy reform attempt. The study illustrates how regionally disaggregated compensation can be revenue neutral, and maintain or reduce pre-reform poverty rates in all states. Overall, it highlights the importance of understanding differences in vulnerability, and designing tailored social protection schemes which ensure public support for subsidy reforms.     

An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US

Crude oil, coal and gas, known as fossil fuels, play a crucial role in the global economy. This paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption. The main variables affecting consumption trends are: world reserves, the price of fossil fuels, US production and US net imports. All variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century. The research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the US production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels. Most of the US coal and gas production has been for domestic use, which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices. Moreover, the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated. The nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type. Finally, estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables.     

Blue hydrogen can be a source of green energy in the period of decarbonization

The most troublesome problems in making blue hydrogen are fugitive emissions of methane in extraction, transportation, and in converting methane to hydrogen by the SMR-WGS-PSA that needs burning methane to provide endothermic heat. The solution is to generate blue hydrogen on the extraction site and use a part of the hydrogen to make electricity on site by a hydrogen fuel cell that also provides steam and heat and eliminates H₂ burning. CO₂ emissions are sequestered by pushing the gas into geological formations from which fossil gas was extracted. Another alternative is to use a half of the produced H₂ to make ammonia on-site by the Haber- Bosh process along with the electricity by the hydrogen fuel cell that also provides concentrated nitrogen from air used to oxidize hydrogen. Turquoise hydrogen conversion wherein high heat or plasma converts methane to CO_x free hydrogen is promising and produces valuable solid carbon and graphene byproducts.     

Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: Life-cycle fossil energy use,GHG emissions and policy recommendations

The Chinese government has enacted policies to promote alternative vehicle fuels (AVFs) and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), including city bus fleets. The life cycle (LC), energy savings (ES) and GHG reduction (GR) profiles of AVFs/AFVs are critical to those policy decisions. The well-to-wheels module of the Tsinghua-CA3EM model is employed to investigate actual performance data. Compared with conventional buses, AFVs offer differences in performance in terms of both ES and GR. Only half of the AFVs analyzed demonstrate dual benefits. However, all non-oil/gas pathways can substitute oil/gas with coal. Current policies seek to promote technology improvements and market creation initiatives within the guiding framework of national-level diversification and district-level uniformity. Combined with their actual LC behavior and in keeping with near- and long-term strategies, integrated policies should seek to (1) apply hybrid electric technology to diesel buses; (2) encourage NG/LPG buses in gas-abundant cities; (3) promote commercialize electric buses or plug-in capable vehicles through battery technology innovation; (4) support fuel cell buses and hydrogen technology R&D for future potential applications; and (5) conduct further research on boosting vehicle fuel efficiency, applying low-carbon transportation technologies, and addressing all resultant implications of coal-based transportation solutions to human health and natural resources.     

Application of genetic algorithm (GA) technique on demand estimation of fossil fuels in Turkey

The main objective is to investigate Turkey's fossil fuels demand, projection and supplies by using the structure of the Turkish industry and economic conditions. This study develops scenarios to analyze fossil fuels consumption and makes future projections based on a genetic algorithm (GA). The models developed in the nonlinear form are applied to the coal, oil and natural gas demand of Turkey. Genetic algorithm demand estimation models (GA-DEM) are developed to estimate the future coal, oil and natural gas demand values based on population, gross national product, import and export figures. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as alternative solutions and estimation techniques for the future fossil fuel utilization values of any country. In the study, coal, oil and natural gas consumption of Turkey are projected. Turkish fossil fuel demand is increased dramatically. Especially, coal, oil and natural gas consumption values are estimated to increase almost 2.82, 1.73 and 4.83 times between 2000 and 2020. In the figures GA-DEM results are compared with World Energy Council Turkish National Committee (WECTNC) projections. The observed results indicate that WECTNC overestimates the fossil fuel consumptions.     

A long-term global energy- economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use

In this paper the authors develop a long-term global energy-economic model which is capable of assessing alternative energy evolutions over periods of up to 100 years. The authors have sought to construct the model so that it can perform its assigned task with as simple a modelling system as possible. The model structure is fully documented and a brief summary of results is given.     

Assessing the economic efficiency of bioenergy technologies in climate mitigation and fossil fuel replacement in Austria using a techno-economic approach

The core issues of the Austrian energy policy agenda include reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Within this study, the costs of GHG mitigation and fossil fuel replacement (abatement costs) of established and upcoming bioenergy technologies for heat, electricity and transport fuel production are assessed. Sensitivity analyses and projections up to 2030 illustrate the effect of dynamic parameters on specific abatement costs.     

Photochemical hydrocarbon fuel regeneration: Hydrogen-rich fuel from CO2

This paper presents the concept of photochemical hydrocarbon fuel regeneration by CO₂ transformation to hydrogen-rich fuel. The first stage of this system is CO₂ capture and algae (Chlorella vulgaris) growing. The second stage is the gasification of algae biomass to produce hydrogen-rich gas and its combustion. To compile the heat and mass balance, the thermodynamic analysis was performed under various operating parameters: temperature 400–800 °C, pressure 1–10 bar 1 kg of biomass was gasified with 1.2 kg of water. The heat of combustion of hydrogen-rich gas after gasification is up to 43% higher than the heat of combustion of initial biomass. The fuel regeneration degree is up to 0.9 when 30% of CO₂ is captured by water and proceded by algae. Moreover, the analyzed photochemical fuel regeneration system allows heat recuperation. The heat regeneration degree is calculated and the maximum value is about 0.9 is reached at 600 °C.     

The potential of fission nuclear power in resolving global climate change under the constraints of nuclear fuel resources and once-through fuel cycles

Nuclear fission is receiving new attention as a developed source of carbon-free energy. A much larger number of nuclear reactors would be needed for a major impact on carbon emission. The crucial question is whether it can be done without increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation. Specifically, can a larger nuclear share in world energy production, well above the present 6%, be achieved in the next few decades without adding the proliferation-sensitive technologies of reprocessing spent fuel and recycling plutonium to the problems of the unavoidable use of enrichment technology? The answer depends on the available uranium resources. We first looked for the maximum possible nuclear build-up in the 2025–2065 period under the constraints of the estimated uranium resources and the use of once-through nuclear fuel technology. Our results show that nuclear energy without reprocessing could reduce carbon emission by 39.6% of the total reduction needed to bring the WEO 2009 Reference Scenario prediction of total GHG emissions in 2065 to the level of the WEO 450 Scenario limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C. The less demanding strategy of the nuclear replacement of all non-CCS coal power plants retiring during the 2025–2065 period would reduce emission by 26.1%.     

Life cycle study of coal-based dimethyl ether as vehicle fuel for urban bus in China

With life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, a life cycle model of coal-based dimethyl ether (CBDME) as a vehicle fuel is established for China. Its life cycle from well to wheel are divided into three phases. They are feedstock extraction, fuel production and fuel consumption in vehicle. The primary energy consumption (PEC) and global warming potential (GWP) of CBDME pathway are analyzed and compared with coal-based diesel (CBD) as a latent rival to replace conventional petroleum-based diesel (CPBD).     

Fossil fuel sustainability index: An application of resource management

A brief review on use of fossil fuel resources and sustainability is given in this paper. A sustainability index for fossil fuels is developed, which aims to determine the most efficient management of fossil fuel resources for the energy system. The study is conducted for 62 countries, in the presence of independence, lifetime and environmental constraints. The effect of these indicators are then integrated into a single index for oil, natural gas, and coal. Two approaches have been taken. The first one employs equally weighing of each index, where the second one weighs the indices by using principle component analysis. It is concluded that Fossil Fuel Sustainability Index (FFSI) values indicate that countries supporting oil as the one and only major player are condemned to suffer due to incompetent energy policies.