Are renewables an alternative to nuclear power? An analysis of the Austria/Slovakia discussions

Politicians and publics throughout Europe have different views on nuclear power and renewable energy sources. Countries such as Austria and Denmark which have no nuclear power are rather hostile towards this energy source, and at the same time view renewable energy sources as one of the solutions in curbing CO₂ emissions. Other countries, such as Slovakia, which is less endowed in terms of renewables, view nuclear power as a electricity-generating source that can reduce dependency on fossil fuels and thereby CO₂. This paper focuses on the confrontation between two nations with different sets of electricity policies, namely Austria and Slovakia. Of particular interest for this study include an evaluation of Austria's anti-nuclear policy towards its Slovakian neighbour and an analysis of Austria's attempts to promote renewable energy sources in both Austria and Slovakia. In conclusion, a number of recommendations are put forward with regard to how Austria's future energy dialogue with Slovakia should look like and what types of projects Austria should consider funding.     

Is China ready for its nuclear expansion?

China’s rapid pace of nuclear energy growth is unique, and its impact on the global nuclear market as both a customer and potential future supplier is already tremendous and will continue to expand. It is crucial to understand this energy policy development and its impact on various global areas. Unfortunately, there is relatively limited English-language information available about China’s nuclear power industry and its current development. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the Chinese nuclear energy program and policy, reviewing its past, present, likely future developments, as well as to consider potential challenges that deserve further attention. This paper will explore reasons that have caused the existing industry, describe China’s nuclear bureaucracy and decision making process to understand how different stakeholders play a role in China’s nuclear energy development. This study concludes that China’s existing nuclear program and industry, in combination with its current stable economic and political environment, provides a sound foundation for the planned nuclear expansion. However, challenges which are crucial to the success of the nuclear expansion will need to be addressed.     

Bush u-turn on renewables?

Despite early indications from the Bush Administration that renewable energy was neither a top priority nor to be funded at levels seen in the Clinton Administration, there appears to be a slow back peddling on this issue. President George W. Bush's proposed energy programme has been encountering mounting hostility on Capitol Hill in Washington as well as significantly growing opposition among many Americans. Don Smith, US correspondent for Refocus magazine reports.     

Multilateral approach to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in Asia-Pacific?

In spite of the nearly unprecedented scale of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident which caused countries around the world to review their nuclear power systems and to rethink their nuclear power expansion plans, nuclear power capacity continues to grow, spearheaded by the Asia-Pacific region. The Asia-Pacific has become a major emerging market for nuclear energy industry, which indicates that the management of spent nuclear fuel is likely to be a nuisance for the countries in this region in the coming decades. By reviewing the history of discussions on multilateral approaches to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle and examining relevant empirical cases, this article aims to explore the feasibility of a multilateral approach to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in this region and provide some policy suggestions to enhance nuclear governance in the Asia-Pacific.     

Is there a transition to flaming in reverse smolder waves?

We previously considered the problem of forward smolder (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13] and showed, both analytically and numerically, that smolder waves propagating in porous samples of length L do (do not) exhibit a transition to flaming according as L exceeds (does not exceed) a critical length L_F, which we termed the flaming length. L_F, a concept which we introduced, is the distance that a steadily propagating smolder wave must travel inside the porous sample before the char oxidation reaction, which hardly affects the characteristics of the smolder wave itself, spontaneously self-accelerates, resulting in an eruption of the temperature in the smolder front. We plotted L_F as a function of the incoming gas influx g₀, based on both analytical and numerical considerations, and found it to be a U shaped curve. The temperature which was achieved after self-acceleration was approximately 800 K, depending on parameters, which is in the range where the transition to flaming has been observed to occur.It is generally believed that reverse smolder waves are unable to spontaneously burst into flaming. This is based on certain seemingly reasonable physical arguments and on experimental observations. However, we note that the experiments were generally performed on relatively short samples, perhaps too short to allow transition. Thus, there may be reason to revisit this view. We therefore consider the problem of reverse smolder, employing the same model which includes three step kinetics (fuel oxidation, pyrolysis, and char oxidation), which we previously considered in the forward smolder configuration (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13]. We show that under certain conditions self-acceleration of the char oxidation reaction may also occur in the reverse smolder configuration, leading to a rapid temperature rise, similar to what we observed for forward smoldering. Employing the same model (except for the boundary conditions, to reflect the reverse, rather than forward configuration), and the same set of kinetic and physical parameters employed in (Aldushin et al., 2006) [13], we find that there is again a flaming distance L_F, that a plot of L_F vs. g₀ exhibits a portion of a U shaped curve and that upon self-ignition, the temperature in the product region behind the smolder front could rise from 600 K in the reaction zone to a value as high as about 825 K, depending on parameters. In fact, we find that the temperatures to which the smolder front rises are comparable to those for forward smolder. Whether or not this temperature rise actually triggers the gaseous reactions leading to flaming ultimately will be settled to everyone’s satisfaction by experiments not yet performed, i.e., in sufficiently long samples. If the temperature rise is not sufficient to trigger a transition to flaming, then our results indicate the existence of a high-temperature smolder front following the low-temperature smolder front, provided that the sample length is sufficiently large, i.e., exceeds a critical value that depend on the incoming gas flux and the kinetic characteristics, to allow sufficient time for the transition to occur. For subcritical sample lengths the char oxidation reaction has essentially no effect on the characteristics of the smolder wave ignited by an igniter at temperature T_ign close to the smolder temperature T_b. However, if T_ign is above a certain critical value, we see either a rapid high-temperature smolder wave driven by the char oxidation reaction or a transition to flaming.We also consider the problem of extinction of reverse smolder waves. Specifically, we show that extinction occurs in the (solid) fuel deficient mode of smolder wave propagation. The smolder wave velocity achieves a maximum for gas fluxes near a certain critical value, in accord with experimental observations (Torero et al., 1993) [4]. For fluxes near the extinction limit we find oscillatory propagation of the smolder wave.     

The transition to renewables: Can PV provide an answer to the peak oil and climate change challenges?

This paper explores energy and physical resource limitations to transitioning from fossil fuels to the large-scale generation of electricity with photovoltaic arrays. The model finds that business as usual models, which involve growth rates in world electricity demand of between 2% and 3.2% p.a., exhibit severe material difficulties before the end of this century. If the growth rate is lowered to 1% p.a., then it may be possible to reach the year 2100 before such difficulties, but it is likely that material constraints will occur early the next century. Steady state scenarios show that silicon based photovoltaic panels could, however, displace fossil fuels before the middle of the century, providing around the same order of magnitude as present (2010) world electricity demand. Scenarios also show that outcomes will be highly dependent upon the rate of improvement of photovoltaic technologies. The analysis does not contend that silicon PV technology is the only technology that will or can be adopted, but as the embodied energy content per kWh generated of this technology is similar to other renewable technologies, such as other solar technologies and wind, it can provide a baseline for examining a transition to a mixture of renewable energy sources.     

Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?

An analytical job creation model for the US power sector from 2009 to 2030 is presented. The model synthesizes data from 15 job studies covering renewable energy (RE), energy efficiency (EE), carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power. The paper employs a consistent methodology of normalizing job data to average employment per unit energy produced over plant lifetime. Job losses in the coal and natural gas industry are modeled to project net employment impacts. Benefits and drawbacks of the methodology are assessed and the resulting model is used for job projections under various renewable portfolio standards (RPS), EE, and low carbon energy scenarios We find that all non-fossil fuel technologies (renewable energy, EE, low carbon) create more jobs per unit energy than coal and natural gas. Aggressive EE measures combined with a 30% RPS target in 2030 can generate over 4 million full-time-equivalent job-years by 2030 while increasing nuclear power to 25% and CCS to 10% of overall generation in 2030 can yield an additional 500,000 job-years.     

Leapfrogging over development? Promoting rural renewables for climate change mitigation

Renewable energy technologies have the potential to help solve two pressing problems. On one hand, carbon-free energy sources must play a role in climate change mitigation. On the other hand, renewables might help meet needs of rural people without access to modern energy services. However, if renewables are deployed to combat climate change (primarily resulting from emissions in the developed economies) then providing basic energy services in the developing world may be compromised. The tendency to conflate the two drivers by installing renewables in rural areas for carbon mitigation reasons rather than for development reasons could compromise both goals. The danger is supporting sub-optimal policies for mitigating carbon and for rural energy. This is problematic given the limited funds available for energy development and reducing greenhouse gases. This paper analyzes how these goals have been balanced by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Project documents are used to determine whether incremental costs of installing renewables were covered by GEF funds and whether the costs are comparable with other carbon mitigation options. The results raise concerns about the effectiveness and appropriateness of GEF funding of such projects and highlight the importance of post-Kyoto framework design to reduce emissions and promote development.     

Is hydrogen diffusion in amorphous metals non-Arrhenian?

Hydrogen diffusion is critical to the performance of metals for hydrogen storage as well as other important applications. As compared to its crystalline counterpart which follows the Arrhenius relation, hydrogen diffusion in amorphous metals sometimes are experimentally found to be non-Arrhenian. In this work we studied the diffusion of hydrogen in amorphous Pd-H and Zr-Cu-H alloys based on molecular dynamics simulations. Our simulations confirm Arrhenian diffusion behaviour for hydrogen in amorphous alloys, in contrast to previous computational studies which predict non-Arrhenian behaviour. We show that the simulated non-Arrhenian diffusion based on molecular dynamics could result from a systematic error related to too short simulation time. We also discussed the experimental non-Arrhenian behaviour of hydrogen diffusion within the framework of quantum tunneling and amorphous-amorphous phase transformations.     

Can renewables etc. solve the greenhouse problem? The negative case

Virtually all current discussion of climate change and energy problems proceeds on the assumption that technical solutions are possible within basically affluent-consumer societies. There is however a substantial case that this assumption is mistaken. This case derives from a consideration of the scale of the tasks and of the limits of non-carbon energy sources, focusing especially on the need for redundant capacity in winter. The first line of argument is to do with the extremely high capital cost of the supply system that would be required, and the second is to do with the problems set by the intermittency of renewable sources. It is concluded that the general climate change and energy problem cannot be solved without large scale reductions in rates of economic production and consumption, and therefore without transition to fundamentally different social structures and systems.     

Why is China going nuclear?

In November 2007, China’s State Council approved its “Medium- and Long-Term Nuclear Power Development Plan”, which set as a goal to increase the nation’s nuclear capacity from about 7 to 40 GWe by 2020. In March 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission suggested installed nuclear power capacity might even exceed 60 GWe by 2020 due to faster than expected construction. Even with this growth, nuclear power’s share of China’s installed total capacity would be only about 5 percent. Yet China’s rapid nuclear expansion poses serious financial, political, security, and environmental challenges. This study investigates China’s claim that nuclear energy is necessary to meet its growing energy demands by analyzing China’s energy alternatives and assessing their likelihood of contributing to total Chinese capacity. By looking at China’s transformative energy policy from several perspectives, this study finds that nuclear energy is indeed a necessity for China.     

Is it better to import palm oil from Thailand to produce biodiesel in Ireland than to produce biodiesel from indigenous Irish rape seed?

The proposed EU Directive on the promotion of Renewable Energy stipulates that only biofuels that achieve greenhouse emissions savings of 35% will be eligible for inclusion with respect to meeting the 2020 target of 10% for the share of biofuels. This paper examines biodiesel for use in Ireland, produced from two different sources: indigenous rape seed and palm oil imported from Thailand. The palm oil system generates more biodiesel per hectare than the rape seed system, and has less parasitic demand. Greenhouse-gas reductions of 29% and 55%, respectively were calculated for the rape seed and palm oil systems.     

New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security?

The aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which the construction of new nuclear power plants in the UK can safeguard or enhance energy security. The paper starts with a discussion of energy security, and breaks it down into four main categories of threat. These include threats due to fossil fuel scarcity and external disruptions, problems due to a lack of investment in infrastructure, threats due to technology or infrastructure failure, and risks due to domestic activism or terrorism. The paper then discusses one of the most common strategies put forward to improve security—the promotion of diversity within energy systems. Following this, the paper assesses the potential for new nuclear investment to ameliorate security threats in each of the four categories introduced earlier in the paper. The paper concludes that whilst nuclear investment can help to mitigate some threats to UK energy security, the government's case for supporting this investment ignores some equally important security issues. As a result, the energy security case for nuclear power has not yet been made.     

Energy efficiency and renewables policies: Promoting efficiency or facilitating monopsony?

The cliché in the electricity sector, the “cheapest power plant is the one we don’t build,” neglects the benefits of the energy that plant would generate. That economy-wide perspective need not apply in considering benefits to only consumers if not building that plant was the exercise of monopsony power. A regulator maximizing consumer welfare may need to avoid rationing demand at monopsony prices. Subsidizing energy efficiency to reduce electricity demand at the margin can solve that problem, if energy efficiency and electricity use are substitutes. Renewable energy subsidies, percentage use standards, or feed in tariffs may also serve monopsony as well with sufficient inelasticity in fossil fuel electricity supply. We may not observe these effects if the regulator can set price as well as quantity, lacks buyer-side market power, or is legally precluded from denying generators a reasonable return on capital. Nevertheless, the possibility of monopsony remains significant in light of the debate as to whether antitrust enforcement should maximize consumer welfare or total welfare.     

Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study

A generation portfolio modelling was employed to assess the expected costs, cost risk and emissions of different generation portfolios in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) under highly uncertain gas prices, carbon pricing policy and electricity demand. Outcomes were modelled for 396 possible generation portfolios, each with 10,000 simulations of possible fuel and carbon prices and electricity demands. In 2030, the lowest expected cost generation portfolio includes 60% renewable energy. Increasing the renewable proportion to 75% slightly increased expected cost (by $0.2/MWh), but significantly decreased the standard deviation of cost (representing the cost risk). Increasing the renewable proportion from the present 15% to 75% by 2030 is found to decrease expected wholesale electricity costs by $17/MWh. Fossil-fuel intensive portfolios have substantial cost risk associated with high uncertainty in future gas and carbon prices. Renewables can effectively mitigate cost risk associated with gas and carbon price uncertainty. This is found to be robust to a wide range of carbon pricing assumptions. This modelling suggests that policy mechanisms to promote an increase in renewable generation towards a level of 75% by 2030 would minimise costs to consumers, and mitigate the risk of extreme electricity prices due to uncertain gas and carbon prices.     

Is there any real chance for carbon capture to be beneficial to the environment?

The rapid application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a much heralded means to tackle emissions from both existing and future sources that, however, simply may not deliver the expected benefits. Apart from some doubts about the efficacy of the geological storage, the present stall in deploying carbon capture and storage (no fossil-fuel power plants, the greatest source of carbon dioxide emissions, are presently using carbon capture and storage, and publicly supported demonstration programmes are struggling to deliver actual projects) is due to the simple fact that the move to carbon capture and storage would have considerable additional costs for the economy and the environment that would very likely offset all the benefits.     

Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that approximately 52% of total U.S. crude oil was produced from shale oil resources in 2015. We examine whether the recent low crude oil price is attributable to this shale revolution in the U.S., using a SVAR model with structural breaks. Our results reveal that U.S. supply shocks are important drivers of real oil price and, for example, explain approximately a quarter of the 73% decline between June 2014 and February 2016. Failure to consider statistically significant structural changes results in underestimating the role played by global supply shocks, while overestimating the role of the demand shocks.     

Coal steam-gasification model in chemical regime to produce hydrogen in a gas–solid moving bed reactor using nuclear heat

A theoretical model of the coal gasification with steam in a chemical moving bed reactor is developed. A very high temperature nuclear reactor provides the energy for accomplishing the endothermic gasification reactions. The model is developed in chemical regime giving information about the temperature profiles, the coal conversion and the specific productivity in the gasification process. For the heat transfer, the three resistances have been included (conduction, convection and radiation). The results have shown that the coal conversion in the heterogenic water “shift” reaction is smaller than the ones in mass transfer control. The gas velocity can change strongly the conversion, for velocities under 0.06 m/s, for bigger quantities the change is negligible. An increase in the gas temperature at the reactor input leads to an increase in the coal conversion; an increase in the temperature from 900 K to 1300 K increases the conversion 40%.     

Decarbonising power generation in China—Is the answer blowing in the wind?

This paper examines the current situation of wind industry development, evaluates the potentials of GHG mitigation and identifies the key determinants of scaling up wind power deployment in China. China has doubled its wind capacity every year for the past 4 years, the total installed capacity reached 12 Gigawatts (GW) and surpassed the 10-GW target 2 years ahead of schedule in the national plan for renewable energy development [38], [71], [87],and would reach 100–120 GW by 2020 according to the government’s new energy plan. It may become the biggest wind power generation and wind turbines manufacturing country of the world in the next years if the abundant wind resources and enormous domestic market can be harnessed with appropriate policies and efficient technology. The recent positive move in vigorous development of wind power in China implies that the total installed capacity will far exceed the targets of the government’s 2007 renewable energy plan. However, the prosperous Chinese wind market has also revealed some worrisome signals and weakness [28], [58], such as low capacity factor and frequent outage of wind farms, inadequate grid infrastructure, long distance transmission, low quality of turbines, adverse price bidding, nepotism in wind farm developer selection process and regulatory uncertainty and policy inconsistency which all conspire to hinder effective power generation in the massively new installed wind capacities. A coherent policy framework is required for creating enabling environment for accelerating wind energy penetration and state-of-art technology deployment in the country. It is argued that institutional, financial and technical capacity will need to be cemented to exploit the huge potentials of wind resources to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity in China in the coming decades with minimised environmental implications.