Endogenous price zones and investment incentives in electricity markets: An application of multilevel optimization with graph partitioning

In the course of the energy transition, load and supply centers are growing apart in electricity markets worldwide, rendering regional price signals even more important to provide adequate locational investment incentives. In this paper, we focus on electricity markets with zonal pricing from a long-run perspective, i.e., we include capacity investment decisions. For a fixed number of zones, we endogenously derive the optimal configuration of price zones and available transfer capacities. We build on the multilevel mixed-integer nonlinear model with graph partitioning on the first level developed in Grimm et al. (2019) and adapt it to be able to solve the model to global optimality even for large instances. By applying the model to the German electricity market, we find that a considerable share of the maximum possible welfare gains can already be achieved by implementing a few (two or three) optimally configured price zones with restrictive inter-zonal ATCs. Moreover, ATCs between zones are an important influencing factor for the achievable welfare gains and investment incentives. Finally, our results show that hypothetical nodal prices are not a good guidance to partition nodes into optimal zones.     

Interconnector capacity allocation in offshore grids with variable wind generation

Different capacity allocation regimes have a strong impact on the economics of offshore wind farms and on interconnectors in offshore grids. Integrating offshore generation in offshore grids is currently a subject of discussion for different regions, e.g. the North Sea. A novel question is how the interconnector capacity should be allocated for wind generation and for international power trading. The main difficulty arises from the stochastic nature of wind generation: in a case with radial connections to the national coast, the wind park owner has the possibility of aggregating the offshore wind park with onshore installations to reduce balancing demand. This is not necessarily the case if the interconnector capacity is sold through implicit or explicit auctions. Different design options are discussed and quantified for a number of examples based on Danish, Dutch, German and Norwegian power markets. It is concluded that treating offshore generation as a single price zone within the interconnector reduces the wind operator's ability to pool it with other generation. Furthermore, a single offshore price zone between two markets will always receive the lower spot market price of the neighbouring zones, although its generation flows only to the high‐price market. Granting the high‐price market income for wind generation as the opposite design option reduces congestion rents. Otherwise, compensation measures through support schemes or different balancing responsibilities may be discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linkages between oil price shocks and stock returns revisited

In this paper, we revisit the debate on the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns by replicating the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression model for the US stock market in Sim and Zhou (2015, Journal of Banking and Finance), and extending it to 15 countries. The classification of these countries as oil importers or oil exporters depends on their net position in crude oil trade. Our results indicate that the main finding by Sim and Zhou (2015) that large negative oil price shocks can bolster stock returns when markets are performing well is only partially supported by the three largest oil importers in our sample – China, Japan and India – during the period 1988:1–2007:12. However, when extending the study to more recent data (period 1988:1–2016:12), we find that China and India experience higher returns when markets perform well and there is a large positive oil price shock. Also, large positive oil price shocks often lead to higher stock market returns when markets perform well for both oil exporting countries – Canada, Russia, Norway – and moderately oil dependent countries – such as Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. In most cases large negative oil price shocks depress further already poorly performing markets, as in Sim and Zhou (2015). These findings highlight that the relationship between the distributions of oil price shocks and stock market returns is not stable over time in most countries studied. Furthermore, the asymmetric effect between positive and negative oil price shocks observed in the US market by Sim and Zhou (2015) is less evident in most countries for both the baseline and extended periods.     

Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects.     

Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics

The interaction between rational hedgers and informed oil traders is parameterized and tested empirically with the help of a complex non linear smooth transition regime shift CCC-GARCH procedure. In spite of their gyrations, futures price changes are usually self-correcting. Well informed producers and consumers will ensure that crude oil prices – and thus the prices of the corresponding futures contracts – fluctuate within a long run equilibrium range determined by market fundamentals. During a steep price upswing, however, shifts in positions in the futures markets by well informed optimizing agents that usually dampen price changes, result in destabilizing positive feedback trading. Futures price changes that can be classified as speculative are due to destabilizing hedgers' reactions to movements in the variability of the return of their covered cash position. The paper provides in this way an innovative interpretation of the 2008 oil price bubble.     

Dynamic assessment of capacity investment in electricity market considering complementary capacity mechanisms

This paper proposes a decentralized market-based model for long-term capacity investment decisions in a liberalized electricity market. Investment decisions are fundamentally based on total revenues gained by investors. In most electricity markets, the complementary mechanisms are designed to ensure a desired level of reliability while covering investment costs of the suppliers. In such an environment, investment decisions are highly sensitive to expectation of price signals in both of energy market and capacity mechanisms. In this work, the system dynamics concepts are used to model the structural characteristics of electricity market such as, long-term firms’ behavior and relationships between variables, feedbacks, and time delays by appropriately bundling the energy market and capacity mechanisms. The market oriented capacity price as well as non-competitive capacity payments and a proposed hybrid capacity mechanism are linked with the energy market in the model. Such a decision model enables both the generation companies and the regulators gaining perfect insights into the possible consequences of different decisions they make under different policies and market conditions. In order to examine the performance of the electricity market with different capacity mechanisms, a case study is presented which exhibits the effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Energy risk management and value at risk modeling

The value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables. The rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts. Within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after OPEC agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification.” Value-at-risk” has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk. There are various methods for calculating value-at-risk. The methods we introduced in this paper are Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting and Variance–Covariance based on GARCH modeling approaches. The results show that among various approaches the HSAF methodology presents more efficient results, so that if the level of confidence is 99%, the value-at-risk calculated through HSAF methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97.6 percent of the forecasting period.     

On dynamic linkages of the state natural gas markets in the USA: Evidence from an empirical spatio-temporal network quantile analysis

We empirically investigate the dynamic linkages of the state-level natural gas markets in the USA. By introducing a novel spatio-temporal network quantile econometric model, we can estimate the dynamic cross-state dependency or market integration of the state-level natural gas markets and the dependence of the state natural gas markets on the national crude oil market at different quantile levels. We find that significant local dynamic neighbouring market integrations exist in the natural gas markets not only in the eastern and central states as evidenced in the literature but also in some western and southwest states. Our results also show that there are significant linkages of the state-level natural gas markets to the national crude oil market through the lagged price shocks and the long-run price equilibrium with the national gas markets under varying price shock propagations. The results can help local government and energy users to mitigate the negative impacts from the expected or unexpected fluctuations in the oil and the neighbouring natural gas markets, which will enact appropriate state-level price discovery and energy policy and investment decision makings.     

Price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation

In commodity markets, price volatility may rise significantly if the product granularity increases. To gain insights into the underlying drivers, we analyze price volatility based on the example of German electricity markets. We develop a theoretical model to reproduce the price formation in the day-ahead and intraday auction which are sequential short-term electricity markets with 60-minute and 15-minute products. As cross-border trade is allowed in the day-ahead but not in the intraday auction, the model accounts for the impact of restricted market participation. The theoretical model is then transferred into an empirical analysis to first validate the modeling approach and second to comparatively assess the impact of increasing product granularity and restricted market participation. The empirical results indicate that the disproportional rise in quarter-hourly price volatility is mainly triggered by limited market participation and not only by the high volatility of renewable supply and demand. Since restricted market participation refers to a lack of market coupling, we derive a proxy for efficiency losses ranging from EUR 55 million to EUR 108 million that may be reduced if markets are coupled.     

Joint electricity and carbon market for Northeast Asia energy interconnection

Decarbonization of the electricity sector is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and global warming over the coming decades. The key challenges for achieving this goal are carbon emission trading and electricity sector regulation, which are also the major components of the carbon and electricity markets, respectively. In this paper, a joint electricity and carbon market model is proposed to investigate the relationships between electricity price, carbon price, and electricity generation capacity, thereby identifying pathways toward a renewable energy transition under the transactional energy interconnection framework. The proposed model is a dynamically iterative optimization model consisting of upper- level and lower-level models. The upper-level model optimizes power generation and obtains the electricity price, which drives the lower-level model to update the carbon price and electricity generation capacity. The proposed model is verified using the Northeast Asia power grid. The results show that increasing carbon price will result in increased electricity price, along with further increases in renewable energy generation capacity in the following period. This increase in renewable energy generation will reduce reliance on carbon-emitting energy sources, and hence the carbon price will decline. Moreover, the interconnection among zones in the Northeast Asia power grid will enable reasonable allocation of zonal power generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be an effective technology to reduce the carbon emissions and further realize the emission reduction targets in 2030-2050. It eases the stress of realizing the energy transition because of the less urgency to install additional renewable energy capacity.     

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies.     

The role of public policy in emerging green power markets: an analysis of marketer preferences

Green power marketing has been heralded by some as a means to create a private market for renewable energy that is driven by customer demand for green products. This article challenges the premise — sometimes proffered in debates over green markets — that profitable, sizable, credible markets for green products will evolve naturally without supportive public policies. Relying primarily on surveys and interviews of US green power marketers, the article examines the role of specific regulatory and legislative policies in ‘enabling’ the green market, and searches for those policies that are believed by marketers to be the most conducive or detrimental to the expansion of the green market. We find that marketers: (1) believe that profitable green power markets will only develop if a solid foundation of supportive policies exists; (2) believe that establishing overall price competition and encouraging customer switching are the top priorities; (3) are somewhat leery of government-sponsored or mandated public information programs; and (4) oppose three specific renewable energy policies that are frequently advocated by renewable energy enthusiasts, but that may have negative impacts on the green marketers’ profitability. The stated preferences of green marketers shed light on ways to foster renewables by means of the green market. Because the interests of marketers do not coincide perfectly with those of society, however, this study also recognizes other normative perspectives and highlights policy tensions at the heart of current debates related to green markets. By examining these conflicts, we identify three key policy questions that should direct future research: To what extent should price competition and customer switching be encouraged at the expense of cost shifting? What requirements should be imposed to ensure credibility in green products and marketing? How should the green power market and broader renewable energy policies interact?     

Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular Amavilah (1995), the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity.     

Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics.     

Transmission-constrained oligopoly in the Japanese electricity market

We simulate the Japanese wholesale electricity market as a transmission-constrained Cournot market using a linear complementarity approach. First, we investigate the effects of upgrading the bottleneck transmission line between the eastern and western regions, focusing on the mitigation of transmission congestion. Although increasing the bottleneck capacity would lead to welfare gains, they might not be substantial particularly when transmission capacity costs are taken into account. Second, we examine the effects of splitting the largest electric power company, which is located in the eastern region, focusing on the mitigation of market power. Splitting the largest company into two companies would lead to a 25% reduction in the eastern price, and a 50% reduction in deadweight loss. The divestiture of the largest company would have a significant effect of mitigating market power in the Japanese electricity market.     

Derivatives of the nodal prices in market power screening

This paper proposes a novel method for market power screening. This method is developed for horizontally and vertically consolidated power markets, and is based on the optimal power flow (OPF) model properties. It undertakes the calculation and analysis of a matrix of derivatives of the nodal prices with respect to generating unit offer prices. The analysis takes into consideration the influence of particular partakers and energy groups on the nodal prices. This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the partakers' and groups' profits as well as a method for the market power screening. Moreover, the issue wherein the LMP model generates prices above the highest bidding price is discussed. Illustrative case studies and case studies based on the Polish wholesale balancing power market model are also presented.     

Information transmission and market interactions across the Atlantic — an empirical study on the natural gas market

This paper studies the international information transmission and market interactions in the U.S. and U.K. natural gas markets. Three well documented approaches are used to measure the relative importance on the process of price discovery under a quadvariate system. After adjusting the effects of nonsynchronous trading prices, robust results indicate our system that includes spot and futures prices within the two countries are driven by one common factor. Information disseminates efficiently among the four markets concerned. The U.S. futures market dominates as the center for price discovery. The U.K. futures market comes as the second. The spot markets in the U.S. and U.K. are less efficient than their corresponding futures market, where the U.K. spot market contributes the least and almost zero to the price discovery process. Asymmetric volatility spillovers are found in three of the four markets. Volatility in the U.S. futures market increases with positive returns which illustrates the inverse leverage effect in most of the commodity market. Volatilities in the spot markets are negatively related to returns, which is analogous to the traditional leverage effect prevailing in most of the equity stock markets.     

Price dynamics and market relations in solar photovoltaic silicon feedstock trades

The paper intends to provide empirical evidence on silicon feedstock price dynamics to assess the way that major photovoltaic countries—the United States of America, Germany, Japan and South Korea—are related in trade competition to China. This issue is explored by addressing the following questions: How have feedstock prices transmitted between geographically separate and contractually different markets? How have different country markets been positioned in feedstock trades by contract? What causes the failure of full price transmission or perfect market integration? Based on a careful examination of China's status in feedstock trades, the price series by country and by contract are measured with the series by country and trade pattern over a reasonable period from 2007 to 2010. The dynamic price relations are analyzed with causality, cointegration and equilibrium tests. The results exhibit dominant but differential market relations by contract. The speed and extent of price transmission are substantially higher in spot trades. The failure of perfect market equilibrium is due to the material heterogeneity and contract arrangements. These findings imply that sufficient attention should be paid to the way that different photovoltaic silicon feedstock countries have competed and the factors that work to explain price inefficiency, but not price manipulations.     

Exploring asymmetric behavior pattern from Indian oil products prices using NARDL and GHSOM approaches

The present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions. In order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility, historically the government of India tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies. In this paper, we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) approaches for the period of April, 2005–July, 2014. The GHSOM has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures. From the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry. However, pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry. Hence, the question still remains – should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers?     

The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks.