基于小波神经网络的福利院滑坡深部位移预测研究

针对滑坡位移监测较为复杂的问题,基于福利院滑坡处水文地质工程地质条件,将BP小波神经网络预测模型引入滑坡变形监测预报中,预测了福利院滑坡变形趋势,并与BP神经网络的预测结果做了比较.结果表明,BP小波神经网络预测结果明显优于Bp神经网络,且训练次数大幅减少、自适应能力强、预测精度高.     

基于相空间重构和GA-BP网络的径流预测

将相空间重构理论与神经网络以及遗传算法相结合提出了径流时间序列预测模型,通过相空间重构将一维径流时间序列拓展为多维序列,挖掘了更为丰富的信息,反映出系统的非线性特征,有利于神经网络建模和训练。研究表明,基于相空间重构理论的遗传算法和BP神经网络组合模型可较好地解决径流预测。以深圳宝安铁岗水库月径流为例,采用小波消噪对数据预处理,利用遗传算法训练BP神经网络,计算结果表明模型具有较高的预测精度。     

风电场风速预测模型研究

介绍了两种风电场风速预测模型,分别是BP神经网络模型和小波-BP神经网络组合模型。BP神经网络模型是风速预测中常用的模型之一,小波技术和BP神经网络结合,即为组合模型。小波技术将风速时间序列按时间和频率两个方向展开,体现了各成分对预测值贡献率的不同。将BP神经网络模型和小波-BP神经网络组合模型分别应用到我国朱日和风电场的逐时风速预测中,从预测结果对比得出组合模型更适合该风电场的逐时风速预测。     

三峡库区白家包滑坡变形特征及位移预测分析

为降低白家包滑坡可能造成的危害,收集并分析白家包滑坡自2006年以来的专业监测数据及变形机制,确定降雨和库水位等外界因素是导致滑坡体变形的主要因素。为预测白家包滑坡在外界诱因下的位移发展变化趋势,采用灰色关联法计算滑坡位移与降雨量、库水位升降的关联性,利用BP神经网络算法预测白家包滑坡累计位移,并对比分析了实测位移与预测位移的差异。结果表明,库水位下降和降雨是诱发白家包滑坡变形的主要因素;BP神经网络算法预测效果较好,白家包滑坡在2014年10月~2016年10月的累计位移预测曲线呈台阶状变化,ZG324、ZG326测点的最大位移达到1 031、1 209mm。     

基于相空间重构的BP神经网络月径流预测模型及应用

针对径流时间序列的非线性特点,利用重构相空间的嵌入维数确定神经网络结构,建立了基于相空间重构理论的BP神经网络月径流预测模型,并采用该模型预测了瀑布沟水库的径流时间序列。结果表明,该BP神经网络预测模型收敛速度快、预测精度较高。     

基于小波分析的BP神经网络潮水位预测方法

分析了潮水的特性,提出了基于小波多分辨分析的BP神经网络潮水位预测方法。通过小波分解与重构技术,将潮水位序列分解成不同层次,得到趋势项、周期项和随机项,利用BP神经网络对每一项进行预测,最后再重构得到原潮水位序列的预测值。实例验证,基于小波分析的BP神经网络潮水位预测方法比单独用神经网络对潮水位进行预测更有效。     

小波网络耦合模型在地下水位动态预测中的应用

针对河套灌区地下水位预测问题,结合小波变换的时频局部特性和神经网络的逼近功能,构建了两种不同耦合方式下小波和BP神经网络相结合的小波网络模型,比较了不同耦合方式下小波网络模型与单纯神经网络模型的预测效果。两种耦合方式下的小波网络模型模拟结果均比单纯使用人工神经网络模型更接近实测值,对低频信号序列及高频信号序列分别进行神经网络模型预测后再进行重构的预测方式比直接将小波分解的多级信号与神经网络结合的预测方式具有更好的预测效果。     

基于新陈代谢无偏灰色神经网络的水质预测模型

针对水质参数样本数据少且非线性的特点,建立了新陈代谢无偏GM(1,1)与BP神经网络的组合预测模型,将通过新陈代谢无偏GM(1, 1)模型得到的数据集作为BP神经网络的输入,原始序列作为神经网络的期望输出,训练得到最佳BP神经网络。将该组合模型应用于乐山岷江大桥断面溶解氧浓度的预测,结果表明,相对误差均在3%以下,与传统灰色神经网络水质预测模型相比,该模型具有实时性及预测精度更高的优点。     

ARIMA-BP组合分析模型在某心墙堆石坝沉降量预测中的应用

针对大坝变形监测中存在的大量小样本时间序列所具有的强非线性特性,引入组合建模的思想,综合应用ARIMA时间序列模型和BP神经网络模型实现了小样本大坝变形监测数据序列的分析,即先利用ARIMA时间序列模型对大坝变形监测数据进行拟合和预测,然后依据时间序列残差建立BP神经网络模型对残差进行预测,最后将两者结合以获得大坝变形的预测。实例分析表明,ARIMA-BP组合模型较单一模型的预测精度高,预测值更接近实测值。     

虹吸井对尾矿坝地震液化的影响分析

针对河套灌区地下水位预测问题,结合小波变换的时频局部特性和神经网络的逼近功能,构建了两种不同耦合方式下小波和BP神经网络相结合的小波网络模型,比较了不同耦合方式下小波网络模型与单纯神经网络模型的预测效果。两种耦合方式下的小波网络模型模拟结果均比单纯使用人工神经网络模型更接近实测值,对低频信号序列及高频信号序列分别进行神经网络模型预测后再进行重构的预测方式比直接将小波分解的多级信号与神经网络结合的预测方式具有更好的预测效果。     

Ash-forming elements in four Scandinavian wood species. Part 1: Summer harvest

Woody biomass in Finland and Sweden comprises mainly four wood species: spruce, pine, birch and aspen. To study the ash, which may cause problems for the combustion device, one tree of each species were cut down and prepared for comparisons with fuel samples. Well-defined samples of wood, bark and foliage were analyzed on 11 ash-forming elements: Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, Mn, Na, K, P, S and Cl. The ash content in the wood tissues (0.2–0.7%) was low compared to the ash content in the bark tissues (1.9–6.4%) and the foliage (2.4–7.7%). The woods’ content of ash-forming elements was consequently low; the highest contents were of Ca (410–1340 ppm) and K (200–1310), followed by Mg (70–290), Mn (15–240) and P (0–350). Present in the wood was also Si (50–190), S (50–200) and Cl (30–110). The bark tissues showed much higher element contents; Ca (4800–19,100 ppm) and K (1600–6400) were the dominating elements, followed by Mg (210–2400), P (210–1200), Mn (110–1100) and S (310–750), but the Cl contents (40–330) were only moderately higher in the bark than in the wood. The young foliage (shoots and deciduous leaves) had the highest K (7100–25,000 ppm), P (1600–5300) and S (1100–2600) contents of all tissues, while the shoots of spruce had the highest Cl contents (820–1360) and its needles the highest Si content (5000–11,300). This paper presented a new approach in fuel characterization: the method excludes the presence of impurities, and focus on different categories of plant tissues. This made it possible to discuss the contents of ash element in a wide spectrum of fuel-types, which are of large importance for the energy production in Finland and Sweden.     

NEXT GENERATION ENGINEERED MATERIALS FOR ULTRA SUPERCRITICAL STEAM TURBINES

正1 ABSTRACT To reduce the effect of global warming on our climate,the levels of CO2emissions should be reduced.One way to do this is to increase the efficiency of electricity production from fossil fuels.This will in turn reduce the amount of CO2emissions for a given power output.Using US practice for efficiency calculations,then a move from a typical US plant running at 37%efficiency to a 760℃/38.5 MPa(1 400/5 580 psi)plant running at 48%efficiency would reduce CO2emissions by 170kg/MW.hr or 25%.     

Contents in Volume 23,2014

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Aerodynamic performance effects of leading-edge geometry in gas-turbine blades

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the advantages of the direct surface-curvature distribution blade-design method, originally proposed by Korakianitis, for the leading-edge design of turbine blades, and by extension for other types of airfoil shapes. The leading edge shape is critical in the blade design process, and it is quite difficult to completely control with inverse, semi-inverse or other direct-design methods. The blade-design method is briefly reviewed, and then the effort is concentrated on smoothly blending the leading edge shape (circle or ellipse, etc.) with the main part of the blade surface, in a manner that avoids leading-edge flow-disturbance and flow-separation regions. Specifically in the leading edge region we return to the second-order (parabolic) construction line coupled with a revised smoothing equation between the leading-edge shape and the main part of the blade. The Hodson–Dominy blade has been used as an example to show the ability of this blade-design method to remove leading-edge separation bubbles in gas turbine blades and other airfoil shapes that have very sharp changes in curvature near the leading edge. An additional gas turbine blade example has been used to illustrate the ability of this method to design leading edge shapes that avoid leading-edge separation bubbles at off-design conditions. This gas turbine blade example has inlet flow angle 0°, outlet flow angle −64.3°, and tangential lift coefficient 1.045, in a region of parameters where the leading edge shape is critical for the overall blade performance. Computed results at incidences of −10°,   −5°,   +5°,   +10° are used to illustrate the complete removal of leading edge flow-disturbance regions, thus minimizing the possibility of leading-edge separation bubbles, while concurrently minimizing the stagnation pressure drop from inlet to outlet. These results using two difficult example cases of leading edge geometries illustrate the superiority and utility of this blade-design method when compared with other direct or inverse blade-design methods.     

Hydrogen production by steam-gasification of carbonaceous materials using concentrated solar energy – V. Reactor modeling,optimization, and scale-up

A chemical reactor for the steam-gasification of carbonaceous particles (e.g. coal, coke) is considered for using concentrated solar radiation as the energy source of high-temperature process heat. A two-phase reactor model that couples radiative, convective, and conductive heat transfer to the chemical kinetics is applied to optimize the reactor geometrical configuration and operational parameters (feedstock's initial particle size, feeding rates, and solar power input) for maximum reaction extent and solar-to-chemical energy conversion efficiency of a 5 kW prototype reactor and its scale-up to 300 kW. For the 300 kW reactor, complete reaction extent is predicted for an initial feedstock particle size up to 35 μm at residence times of less than 10 s and peak temperatures of 1818 K, yielding high-quality syngas with a calorific content that has been solar-upgraded by 19% over that of the petcoke gasified.     

Assessment methods of material ageing using Sdobyrev''s creep rupture model

The physical aspects of the activation energy, in higher and high temperatures, of the metal creep process were examined. The research results of creep-rupture in a uniaxial stress state and the criterion of creep-rupture in biaxial stress states, at two temperatures, are then presented. For these studies creep-rupture, taking case iron as an example the energy and pseudoenergy activation was determined. For complex stress states the criterion of creep-rupture was taken to be Sdobyrev's, i.e. σ_red = σ₁ β + (1 − β)σ_i, where: σ₁-maximal principal stress, σ_i-stress intensity, β-material constant (at variable temperature β = β(T)). The methods of assessment of the material ageing grade are given in percentages of ageing of new material in the following mechanical properties: 1) creep strength in uniaxial stress state, 2) activation energy in uniaxial stress state, 3) criterion creep strength in complex stress states, 4) activation pseudoenergy in complex stress states. The methods 1) and 3) are the relatively simplest because they result from experimental investigations only at nominal temperature of the structure work, however, for methods 2) and 4) it is necessary to perform the experimental investigations at least at two temperatures.     

Production of hydrogen from sewage biosolids in a continuously fed bioreactor: Effect of hydraulic retention time and sparging

Hydrogen was produced from primary sewage biosolids via mesophilic anaerobic fermentation in a continuously fed bioreactor. Prior to fermentation the sewage biosolids were heated to 70 °C for 1 h to inactivate methanogens and during fermentation a cellulose degrading enzyme was added to improve substrate availability. Hydraulic retention times (HRT) of 18, 24, 36 and 48 h were evaluated for the duration of hydrogen production. Without sparging a hydraulic retention time of 24 h resulted in the longest period of hydrogen production (3 days), during which a hydrogen yield of 21.9 L H₂ kg⁻¹ VS added to the bioreactor was achieved. Methods of preventing the decline of hydrogen production during continuous fermentation were evaluated. Of the techniques evaluated using nitrogen gas to sparge the bioreactor contents proved to be more effective than flushing just the headspace of the bioreactor. Sparging at 0.06 L L min⁻¹ successfully prevented a decline in hydrogen production and resulted in a yield of 27.0  L H₂ kg⁻¹ VS added, over a period of greater than 12 days or 12 HRT. The use of sparging also delayed the build up of acetic acid in the bioreactor, suggesting that it serves to inhibit homoacetogenesis and thus maintain hydrogen production.     

汽轮机数字电液调节系统挂闸异常的技术完善

分析了200MW汽轮机数字电液调节系统在运行中存在的挂闸异常问题,采取了相应的技术处理措施,且运行实践效果良好。     

新型高压共轨ECU升压模块的数字化开发与优化

为了提高喷油器电磁阀的响应速率,提出了一种基于CPLD(复杂可编程逻辑器件)应用于高压共轨ECU的数字升压模块。鉴于该升压电路结构参数多,其升压电压的恢复响应要求高等特征,基于Pspice建立了升压电路的仿真模型,研究了不同电路参数下升压模块的输出特性,全面优化了该升压模块的性能。结果显示,该升压模块的最大转换效率可以达90%以上。在柴油发动机上对ECU的试验表明,升压电压最大波动不超过10%,其恢复时间仅为1.3ms,功率管最大温升仅为41℃,满足整机运行范围内ECU的需求。     

Trace metal chemistry and silicification of microorganisms in geothermal sinter, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

As part of a pilot study investigating the role of microorganisms in the immobilisation of As, Sb, B, Tl and Hg, the inorganic geochemistry of seven different active sinter deposits and their contact fluids were characterised. A comprehensive series of sequential extractions for a suite of trace elements was carried out on siliceous sinter and a mixed silica-carbonate sinter. The extractions showed whether metals were loosely exchangeable or bound to carbonate, oxide, organic or crystalline fractions. Hyperthermophilic microbial communities associated with sinters deposited from high temperature (92–94°C) fluids at a variety of geothermal sources were investigated using SEM. The rapidity and style of silicification of the hyperthermophiles can be correlated with the dissolved silica content of the fluid. Although high concentrations of Hg and Tl were found associated with the organic fraction of the sinters, there was no evidence to suggest that any of the heavy metals were associated preferentially with the hyperthermophiles at the high temperature (92–94°C) ends of the terrestrial thermal spring ecosystems studied.