Assessment of demand for natural gas from the electricity sector in India

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO₂ emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).     

Reference models and incentive regulation of electricity distribution networks: An evaluation of Sweden's Network Performance Assessment Model (NPAM)

Electricity sector reforms across the world have led to a search for innovative approaches to regulation that promote efficiency in the natural monopoly distribution networks and reduce their service charges. To this aim, a number of countries have adopted incentive regulation models based on efficiency benchmarking. While most regulators have used parametric and non-parametric frontier-based methods of benchmarking some have adopted engineering-designed “reference firm” or “norm” models. This paper examines the incentive properties and related aspects of the reference firm model—NPAM—as used in Sweden and compares this with frontier-based benchmarking methods. We identify a number of important differences between the two approaches that are not readily apparent and discuss their ramifications for the regulatory objectives and process. We conclude that, on balance, the reference models are less appropriate as benchmarks than real firms. Also, the implementation framework based on annual ex-post reviews exacerbates the regulatory problems mainly by increasing uncertainty and reducing the incentive for innovation.     

Exergy-based method for analyzing the composition of the electricity cost generated in gas-fired combined cycle plants

The proposed method to analyze the composition of the cost of electricity is based on the energy conversion processes and the destruction of the exergy through the several thermodynamic processes that comprise a combined cycle power plant. The method uses thermoeconomics to evaluate and allocate the cost of exergy throughout the processes, considering costs related to inputs and investment in equipment. Although the concept may be applied to any combined cycle or cogeneration plant, this work develops only the mathematical modeling for three-pressure heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) configurations and total condensation of the produced steam. It is possible to study any n×1 plant configuration (n sets of gas turbine and HRSGs associated to one steam turbine generator and condenser) with the developed model, assuming that every train operates identically and in steady state. The presented model was conceived from a complex configuration of a real power plant, over which variations may be applied in order to adapt it to a defined configuration under study [Borelli SJS. Method for the analysis of the composition of electricity costs in combined cycle thermoelectric power plants. Master in Energy Dissertation, Interdisciplinary Program of Energy, Institute of Eletro-technical and Energy, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 2005 (in Portuguese)]. The variations and adaptations include, for instance, use of reheat, supplementary firing and partial load operation. It is also possible to undertake sensitivity analysis on geometrical equipment parameters.     

An Analytical Network Process (ANP) evaluation of alternative fuels for electricity generation in Turkey

In this paper, we present an Analytical Network Process (ANP) model to determine the best fuel mix for electricity generation in Turkey from a sustainable development perspective. The proposed model is implemented in two alternative scenarios. These scenarios are structured along the lines of classification between weak and strong sustainability, and therefore reflect two basic dimensions of sustainability of energy production—environmental protection and sustainable supply of energy resources. The results of the study indicate the gap between goals of sustainable development and energy policies of Turkey in terms of energy security and environmental degradation. Under all alternative scenarios of our model, the highest value alternative is hydropower—domestic, renewable source—while the Turkish electricity sector mainly relies on imported natural gas. The share of nuclear energy is in the range of 8.12–10.21% in our model results, although nuclear energy is not available yet. The calculated percentages of renewable fuels (biomass, geothermal, wind, solar) are 35.7% and 28.9% for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively, while the total percentage of these fuels is 0.18% of the installed capacity of Turkey. The results of our model suggest that the share of renewable fuels in installed capacity should be increased to achieve sustainable development.