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1.
Records of clinical mastitis on 1.6 million first-lactation daughters of 2,411 Norwegian Cattle sires that were progeny tested from 1978 through 1998 were analyzed with a threshold model. The main objective was to infer genetic change for the disease in the population. A Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling was used. The model for the underlying liability had age at first calving, month x year of calving, herd x 3-year-period, and sire of the cow as explanatory variables. Posterior mean (SD) of heritability of liability to clinical mastitis was 0.066 (0.003). Genetic evaluations (posterior means) of sires both in the liability and observable scales were computed. Annual genetic change of liability to clinical mastitis for progeny tested bulls born from 1973 to 1993 was assessed. The linear regression of mean sire effect on year of birth had a posterior mean (SD) of -0.00018 (0.0004), suggesting a nearly constant genetic level for clinical mastitis. However, an analysis of sire posterior means by birth-year of daughters indicated an approximately constant genetic level in the cow population from 1976 to 1990 (-0.02%/yr), and a genetic improvement thereafter (-0.27%/yr). This reflects more emphasis on mastitis in selection of bulls in recent years. Corresponding results obtained with a standard linear model analysis were -0.01% and -0.23% per year, respectively (regression of sire predicted transmitting ability on birth-year of daughters). Genetic change seems to be slightly understated with the linear model, assuming the threshold model holds true.  相似文献   

2.
Genetic analysis of mastitis data with different models   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The aim of this study was to analyze different mastitis data sets with different statistical models and compare results. Data recording took place on 3 commercial milk farms with an average herd size of 3,200 German Holstein cows. Recording started in February 1998 and was completed in December 2005. During this period, 63,540 treatments for clinical mastitis were recorded. Five different data sets were analyzed and the number of cows varied between 12,972 and 13,618, depending on the data set. Data collection periods contained either the first 50 or the first 300 d of lactation. When the data-recording period ended after 50 d of lactation, data sets were analyzed with a lactation threshold model (LTM), a multiple threshold lactation model (MTLM), and a test-day threshold model (TDTM). In the LTM analysis, mastitis was treated as a binary trait coded as 0 (no mastitis) or 1 (mastitis), whereas in MTLM mastitis, codes were between 0 and 4, depending on the number of estimated days with mastitis. The TDTM treated each day as a single observation coded similarly to that of the LTM. When the data collection period included the first 300 d of lactation, data sets were analyzed with the LTM or MTLM only, because the TDTM was computationally infeasible. Mastitis frequencies in LTM data sets were 25.8 and 39.2%, and 26.9 and 39.2% in MTLM data sets, when data recording ended after 50 and 300 d of lactation, respectively. The mastitis frequency in the TDTM data set was 5.2%. Respective heritability estimates of liability to clinical mastitis were 0.08 and 0.09 using the LTM, and 0.08 and 0.11 using the MTLM. When the TDTM was used, the estimated heritability was 0.15. Rank correlation between breeding values of the different data sets ranged between 0.40 and 0.97. Rank correlation between the LTM and MTLM were higher (0.78 to 0.97) than those between these 2 models and the TDTM (0.40 to 0.59).The MTLM combined the positive effects of both the LTM, with respect to the size of the data sets, and the TDTM, with respect to the lack of information.  相似文献   

3.
In the present study, 6 different mastitis data sets of 3 dairy herds with an overall herd size of 3200 German Holstein cows were analyzed. Data collection periods included the first 50, 100, or 300 d of lactation. The 3 data collection periods were analyzed with a lactation model and a test-day model. All models were animal threshold models. Mastitis frequencies in the lactation model data sets varied between 29 and 45%, and varied between 3 and 6% in the test-day model data sets. Depending on the period of data collection, heritabilities of liability to mastitis in the lactation models were 0.05 (50 d), 0.06 (100 d), and 0.07 (300 d). In the test-day models, heritabilities were slightly higher with values of 0.09 (50 and 100 d), and 0.06 (300 d). Between lactation models, the rank correlations between the relative breeding values were high and varied between 0.86 and 0.94. Rank correlations between the relative breeding values of the test-day models ranged from 0.68 to 0.87. The rank correlations between the relative breeding values of lactation models and test-day models varied from 0.51 and 0.80. Genetic correlations between mastitis and milk production traits were estimated with a linear animal test-day model. The correlations with mastitis were 0.29 (milk yield), 0.30 (fat yield), 0.20 (fat content), 0.34 (protein yield), and 0.20 (protein content). The estimated genetic correlation between mastitis and somatic cell score was 0.84.  相似文献   

4.
A Bayesian multivariate threshold model was fitted to clinical mastitis (CM) records from 372,227 daughters of 2411 Norwegian Dairy Cattle (NRF) sires. All cases of veterinary-treated CM occurring from 30 d before first calving to culling or 300 d after third calving were included. Lactations were divided into 4 intervals: -30 to 0 d, 1 to 30 d, 31 to 120 d, and 121 to 300 d after calving. Within each interval, absence or presence of CM was scored as "0" or "1" based on the CM episodes. A 12-variate (3 lactations x 4 intervals) threshold model was used, assuming that CM was a different trait in each interval. Residuals were assumed correlated within lactation but independent between lactations. The model for liability to CM had interval-specific effects of month-year of calving, age at calving (first lactation), or calving interval (second and third lactations), herd-5-yr-period, sire of the cow, plus a residual. Posterior mean of heritability of liability to CM was 0.09 and 0.05 in the first and last intervals, respectively, and between 0.06 and 0.07 for other intervals. Posterior means of genetic correlations of liability to CM between intervals ranged from 0.24 (between intervals 1 and 12) to 0.73 (between intervals 1 and 2), suggesting interval-specific genetic control of resistance to mastitis. Residual correlations ranged from 0.08 to 0.17 for adjacent intervals, and between -0.01 and 0.03 for nonadjacent intervals. Trends of mean sire posterior means by birth year of daughters were used to assess genetic change. The 12 traits showed similar trends, with little or no genetic change from 1976 to 1986, and genetic improvement in resistance to mastitis thereafter. Annual genetic change was larger for intervals in first lactation when compared with second or third lactation. Within lactation, genetic change was larger for intervals early in lactation, and more so in the first lactation. This reflects that selection against mastitis in NRF has emphasized mainly CM in early first lactation, with favorable correlated selection responses in second and third lactations suggested.  相似文献   

5.
Clinical mastitis records for 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Cattle (NRF) sires were analyzed with a Bayesian longitudinal threshold model. For each cow, the period going from 30 d before calving to 300 d after calving was divided into 11 intervals of 30 d length each. Absence or presence of clinical mastitis within each interval was scored as "0" or "1", respectively. A Bayesian threshold model consisting of a set of explanatory variables plus Legendre polynomials on time of order four was used to describe the trajectory of liability to clinical mastitis. Heritability ranged between 0.07 and 0.13 before calving, from 0.04 to 0.15 during the first 270 d after calving, and increased sharply thereafter, as a consequence of the form of the polynomial. Genetic correlations between adjacent days were close to 1, and decreased when days were further apart. Most genetic correlations were moderate to high. A measure of probability of future daughters contracting clinical mastitis during lactation was computed for each sire. A typical curve had a peak near calving followed by a decrease thereafter. The best sires had a low peak around calving and a low expected probability of mastitis among daughters throughout lactation. Expected fraction of days without mastitis was derived from the probability curves and used for ranking of sires. Rank correlations with genetic evaluations of sires obtained from cross-sectional models were high. However, sire selection was affected markedly, especially at high selection intensity. An advantage of the longitudinal model for clinical mastitis is its ability to take multiple treatments and time aspects into account.  相似文献   

6.
The objective of this study was to infer genetic parameters and genetic change for number of clinical mastitis cases (NCM) and number of services to conception (STC) in first-lactation Norwegian Red (NRF) cows. Records on 620,492 daughters of 3,064 NRF sires, with first calving from 1980 through 2004, were analyzed with a bivariate threshold liability model that takes censoring into account. Posterior mean (SD) of heritability of liability was 0.08 (0.004) for NCM and 0.03 (0.002) for STC. The mean (SD) of the posterior distribution of the genetic correlation between the 2 traits was 0.21 (0.04). Posterior means of the correlation between herd-5-yr effects, and between residuals for NCM and STC were 0.17 and 0.05, respectively. To evaluate effects of taking censoring into account, the data were also analyzed with a bivariate ordered threshold model ignoring censoring. The genetic correlation between NCM and STC was lower than in the censored threshold model (0.09 vs. 0.21). Heritability of liability to NCM and STC from this model was also slightly lower, whereas the point estimates of herd-5-yr and residual correlations were 0.15, and −0.01, respectively. These results suggest that genetic (co)variance may be understated in models ignoring censoring. For comparison purposes, the data were analyzed with a bivariate linear sire model and standard REML-BLUP procedures. The correlation (rank correlation) between sire evaluations from the censored threshold model and sire predicted transmitting abilities from the linear model was 0.90 (0.90) for NCM and 0.87 (0.86) for STC. The evolution of average sire posterior means by birth year of daughters was used to assess genetic change, and results indicated genetic reduction (i.e., genetic improvement) of NCM and little or no genetic change for STC in the NRF population.  相似文献   

7.
Typically, clinical mastitis is coded as the presence or absence of disease in a given lactation, and records are analyzed with either linear models or binary threshold models. Because the presence of mastitis may include cows with multiple episodes, there is a loss of information when counts are treated as binary responses. Poisson models are appropriated for random variables measured as the number of events, and although these models are used extensively in studying the epidemiology of mastitis, they have rarely been used for studying the genetic aspects of mastitis. Ordinal threshold models are pertinent for ordered categorical responses; although one can hypothesize that the number of clinical mastitis episodes per animal reflects a continuous underlying increase in mastitis susceptibility, these models have rarely been used in genetic analysis of mastitis. The objective of this study was to compare probit, Poisson, and ordinal threshold models for the genetic evaluation of US Holstein sires for clinical mastitis. Mastitis was measured as a binary trait or as the number of mastitis cases. Data from 44,908 first-parity cows recorded in on-farm herd management software were gathered, edited, and processed for the present study. The cows were daughters of 1,861 sires, distributed over 94 herds. Predictive ability was assessed via a 5-fold cross-validation using 2 loss functions: mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end point and a cost difference function. The heritability estimates were 0.061 for mastitis measured as a binary trait in the probit model and 0.085 and 0.132 for the number of mastitis cases in the ordinal threshold and Poisson models, respectively; because of scale differences, only the probit and ordinal threshold models are directly comparable. Among healthy animals, MSEP was smallest for the probit model, and the cost function was smallest for the ordinal threshold model. Among diseased animals, MSEP and the cost function were smallest for the Poisson model, followed by the ordinal threshold model. In general, the models for count variables more accurately identified diseased animals and more accurately predicted mastitis costs. Healthy animals were more accurately identified by the probit model.  相似文献   

8.
The performance of different models for genetic analyses of clinical mastitis in Austrian Fleckvieh dual-purpose cows was evaluated. The main objective was to compare threshold sire models (probit and logit) with linear sire and linear animal models using REML algorithm. For comparison, data were also analyzed using a Bayesian threshold sire model. The models were evaluated with respect to ranking of sires and their predictive ability in cross-validation. Only minor differences were observed in estimated variance components and heritability from Bayesian and REML probit models. Heritabilities for probit and logit models were 0.06 and 0.08, respectively, whereas heritabilities for linear sire and linear animal models were lower (0.02). Correlations among ranking of sires from threshold and linear sire models were high (>0.99), whereas correlations between any sire model (threshold or linear) and the linear animal model were slightly lower (0.96). The worst sires were ranked very similar across all models, whereas for the best sires some reranking occurred. Further, models were evaluated based on their ability to predict future data, which is one of the main concerns of animal breeders. The predictive ability of each model was determined by using 2 criteria: mean squared error and Pearson correlation between predicted and observed value. Overall, the 5 models did not differ in predictive ability. In contrast to expectations, sire models had the same predictive ability as animal models. Linear models were found to be robust toward departures from normality and performed equally well as threshold models.  相似文献   

9.
《Journal of dairy science》2022,105(3):2369-2379
Clinical mastitis (CM) incidence is considerable in terms of cows affected per year, but cases are much less common in terms of detections per cow per milking. From a modeling perspective, where predictions are made every time any cow is milked, low CM incidence per cow day makes training, evaluating, and applying CM prediction models a challenge. The objective of this study was to build models for predicting CM incidence using time-series sensor data and choose models that maximize net return based on a cost matrix. Data collected from 2 university dairy farms, the University of Florida and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, were used to gather representative data, including 110,156 milkings and 333 CM cases. Variables used in the models were milk yield, protein, lactose, fat, electrical conductivity, days in milk, lactation number, and activity as the number of steps, lying time, lying bouts, and lying bout duration. Models that predicted either likelihood of CM caused by gram-negative (GN) or gram-positive (GP) bacteria on each day were derived using extreme gradient boosting with weighting favoring true-positive cases, logistic responses, and log-loss errors. Model accuracies were determined using data randomly held out from the training set on each run. All variables considered were in terms of change (slope) over previous days, including the day CM was visually detected. The GN models had a median sensitivity (Se) of 52.6% and specificity (Sp) of 99.8%, whereas the GP models had a median Se of 37.5% and Sp of 99.9% when tested on the held-out data. In our models optimized to reduce cost from predictions, the Se was much less than Sp, suggesting that CM models might benefit from greater model weighting placed on Sp. Results also highlight the importance of positive predictive value (true positive cases per predicted positive case) along with Sp and Se, as models built on sparse data tend to predict too many false-positive cases. The calculated partial net return of our GN and GP models were ?$0.15 and ?$0.10 per cow per lactation, respectively, whereas International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standard models with Se of 80% and Sp of 99% would return ?$1.32 per cow per lactation. Models chosen that minimized the cost to the farmer differed markedly from models that met ISO guidelines, showing asymmetry in targets between Sp and Se when the disease incidence rate is low. Because of the unique challenges that low-incidence diseases like CM present, we recommend that future CM predictive models consider the economic and practical implications in addition to the traditional model evaluation metrics.  相似文献   

10.
Subclinical mastitis (SCM) causes economic losses for dairy producers by reducing milk production and leading to higher incidence of clinical mastitis and premature culling. The prevalence of SCM in first-lactation heifers is highest during early lactation. The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for SCM in early lactation in first-parity Holsteins. Somatic cell count test-day records were collected monthly in 91 Canadian herds participating in the National Cohort of Dairy Farms of the Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network. Only the first test-day record available between 5 and 30 d in milk was considered for analysis. The final data set contained 8,518 records from first lactation Holstein heifers. Six alternative traits were defined as indicators of SCM, using various cutoff values of SCC, ranging from 150,000 to 400,000 cells/mL. Both linear and threshold animal models were used. Overall prevalence of SCM using the 6 traits ranged from 13 to 24%. Heritability estimates (standard error) from linear and threshold models ranged from 0.037 to 0.057 (0.015 to 0.018) and from 0.040 to 0.051 (0.017 to 0.020), respectively. We found strong genetic correlations (standard error) among alternative SCC traits, ranging from 0.90 to 0.99 (0.013 to 0.069), indicating that these 6 traits were genetically similar. Despite low heritability, based on estimated breeding values (EBV) predicted from both models, we noted exploitable genetic variation among sires. Higher EBV of SCM resistance corresponded to sires with a higher percentage of daughters without SCM. Based on a linear model (all 6 traits), percentage of daughters with SCM ranged from 5 to 13% and from 19 to 33% for the top 10% and worst 10% of 69 sires with minimum 20 daughters in at least 5 herds, respectively. Spearman's rank correlations among EBV of sires predicted from linear (from 0.75 to 0.95) and threshold (from 0.74 to 0.95) models were moderate to high, respectively. Very high rank correlations (0.98 to 0.99) between EBV predicted for the same trait from linear and threshold model indicated that reranking of sires based on model used was minimal. In conclusion, despite low heritability, we found utilizable genetic variation in early lactation of heifers. Hence, genetic selection to improve genetic resistance to SCM in early lactation of heifers was deemed possible.  相似文献   

11.
The objective was to study, by simulation, whether survival analysis results in a more precise genetic evaluation for mastitis in dairy cattle than cross-sectional linear models and threshold models by using observation periods for mastitis of 2 lengths (the first 150 d of lactation, and the full lactation, respectively). True breeding values for mastitis liability on the underlying scale were simulated for daughters of 400 sires (average daughter group size, 60 or 150), and the possible event of a mastitis case within lactation for each cow was created. For the linear models and the threshold models, mastitis was defined as a binary trait within either the first 150 d of lactation or the full lactation. For the survival analysis, mastitis was defined as the number of days from calving to either the first case of mastitis (uncensored record) or to the day of censoring (i.e., day of culling, lactation d 150 or day of next calving; censored record). Cows could be culled early in lactation (within 10 d after calving) for calving-related reasons or later on because of infertility. The correlation between sire true breeding values for mastitis liability and sire predicted breeding values was greater when using the full lactation data (0.76) than when using data from the first 150 d (0.70) with an average of 150 daughters per sire. The corresponding results were 0.60 and 0.53, respectively, with an average of 60 daughters per sire. Under these simulated conditions, the method used had no effect on accuracy. The higher accuracy of sire breeding values can be translated into a greater genetic gain, unless counteracted by a longer generation interval.  相似文献   

12.
This study had 3 objectives: to estimate genetic parameters and predict sires’ transmitting abilities for clinical mastitis in a Spanish Holstein population, to propose a methodology for comparing models with different response variables by using a cost-based loss function, and to evaluate alternative genetic evaluation models by using this methodology. On-farm records for clinical mastitis from herds in 3 Spanish regions were analyzed as a binary trait (CM) and as number of episodes (NCM) per lactation. Linear and probit models were fitted for CM, whereas linear and Poisson models were used for NCM. Predictive ability of the models was evaluated by using the average predicted residual sum of squares from cross-validation and an alternative cost-based loss function. The loss function for model comparison was calculated by using average mastitis costs depending on the NCM and average cost per infected lactation. The average cost per infected lactation was $345.58, whereas the cost per lactation ranged from $204.86 to $985.44 for lactations with 1 to 5 cases, respectively. Management and hygiene practices on individual farms had a large impact on clinical mastitis because the herd-year variance was larger than that of other random effects considered. The sire variance was significantly different from zero, confirming that genetic variation exists for clinical mastitis. Estimates of heritability for CM using the linear and probit models were 0.07 and 0.10 on the underlying scale, respectively. For NCM, the estimate of heritability for the linear model was 0.10 and estimates for the Poisson model evaluated at the mean and the median of lambda on the underlying scale were 0.09 and 0.07, respectively. Regarding ranking of sires, the definition of response variable (CM or NCM) was of greater importance than the choice of statistical model. Cross-validation results indicated that models with the best fit for CM and NCM were the probit model and the linear model, respectively. However, a comparison across all models using the alternative cost-based loss function showed that using NCM as a response variable with a Poisson model provided the most accurate predictions of future costs associated with clinical mastitis.  相似文献   

13.
Associations between clinical mastitis (CM) and nonreturn rate within 56 d after first insemination (NR56) were examined in Norwegian Red (NRF) cows. Records on absence or presence of CM within each of the intervals, −30 to 30, 31 to 150, and 151 to 300 d after first calving, and records on NR56 for 620,492 first-lactation daughters of 3,064 NRF sires were analyzed with a Bayesian multivariate threshold liability model. Point estimates of genetic correlations between NR56 and the 3 CM traits were between −0.05 and −0.02. Residual correlations were close to zero, and correlations between herd-5-yr effects on NR56 and CM in the 3 lactation intervals ranged from −0.15 to −0.17. It appears that CM and NR56 in first lactation are independent traits.  相似文献   

14.
Mean daughter deviations for clinical mastitis among second-crop daughters were regressed on predicted transmitting abilities for clinical mastitis and lactation mean somatic cell score in first-crop daughters to validate the predictive ability of these traits as selection criteria for reduced incidence of clinical mastitis. A total of 321 sires had 684,897 second-crop daughters, while predicted transmitting abilities were calculated for 2159 sires, based on 495,681 records of first-crop daughters. Predictive ability, as a measure of efficiency of selection, was 23 to 43% higher for clinical mastitis than for lactation mean somatic cell score. Compared to single-trait selection, predictive ability improved 8 to 13% from utilizing information on both traits. The relative weight that should be assigned to standardized predicted transmitting abilities from univariate genetic analyses were 60 to 67% for clinical mastitis and 33 to 40% for lactation mean somatic cell score. No significant nonlinear genetic relationship between the two traits was found.  相似文献   

15.
Records taken on 13,070 first-lactation daughters of 250 Norwegian Cattle sires were used to examine associations between susceptibility to clinical mastitis and to culling. Clinical mastitis was defined as a binary trait, whereas culling was treated as either binary (culled or not culled) or continuous (length of opportunity period) for two sampling periods (120 or 300 d of lactation). Two Bayesian models were employed; 1) a bivariate threshold model with both mastitis and culling as binary traits, and 2) a bivariate model with mastitis as a threshold binary variable and time to culling as Gaussian. The heritability of liability to clinical mastitis was not affected by either the length of sampling period (120 vs. 300 d) or by whether culling (binary) or length of opportunity period was the second trait in the bivariate analysis. The posterior mean (standard deviation) of heritability of liability to clinical mastitis was 0.06 to 0.07 (0.02) in all analyses. The heritability estimate of length of opportunity period was less than 0.001. Culling (threshold trait) in first lactation had a low heritability, but a high genetic correlation with clinical mastitis. The posterior means (standard deviation) for heritability of liability to culling were 0.01 (0.006) for 120 d and 0.02 (0.009) for 300 d, and the posterior means (standard deviation) of the genetic correlation between liability to clinical mastitis and to culling were 0.48 (0.24) and 0.53 (0.21) for 120 and 300 d, respectively.  相似文献   

16.
Clinical mastitis was analyzed with mixed linear models (LM) and survival analysis (SA) using data from the first 3 lactations of >200,000 Swedish Holstein cows having their first calving between 1995 and 2000. The model for both methods included fixed effects of year-month and age at calving, fixed regressions of proportions of heterosis and North American Holstein genes, and random effects of herd-year at calving and sire. For the LM, clinical mastitis was defined as a binary trait measured from 10 d before to 150 d after calving. For the SA, clinical mastitis was defined either as the time period from 10 d before calving to the day of first treatment or culling because of mastitis (uncensored record) or from 10 d before to the day of next calving, culling for reasons other than mastitis, movement to a new herd, or to lactation d 240 (censored record). The heritability estimates from SA (0.03 to 0.04) were higher than those obtained with the LM (0.01 to 0.03). Consequently, the accuracies of estimated transmitting abilities were also higher for the trait analyzed with SA. The difference between estimates from the 2 methods was greater for later lactations. This study reveals the potential of analyzing clinical mastitis data with SA.  相似文献   

17.
A national genetic evaluation program for hoof health could be achieved by using hoof lesion data collected directly by hoof trimmers. However, not all cows in the herds during the trimming period are always presented to the hoof trimmer. This preselection process may not be completely random, leading to erroneous estimations of the prevalence of hoof lesions in the herd and inaccuracies in the genetic evaluation. The main objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for individual hoof lesions in Canadian Holsteins by using an alternative cohort to consider all cows in the herd during the period of the hoof trimming sessions, including those that were not examined by the trimmer over the entire lactation. A second objective was to compare the estimated heritabilities and breeding values for resistance to hoof lesions obtained with threshold and linear models. Data were recorded by 23 hoof trimmers serving 521 herds located in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario. A total of 73,559 hoof-trimming records from 53,654 cows were collected between 2009 and 2012. Hoof lesions included in the analysis were digital dermatitis, interdigital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia, sole hemorrhage, sole ulcer, toe ulcer, and white line disease. All variables were analyzed as binary traits, as the presence or the absence of the lesions, using a threshold and a linear animal model. Two different cohorts were created: Cohort 1, which included only cows presented to hoof trimmers, and Cohort 2, which included all cows present in the herd at the time of hoof trimmer visit. Using a threshold model, heritabilities on the observed scale ranged from 0.01 to 0.08 for Cohort 1 and from 0.01 to 0.06 for Cohort 2. Heritabilities estimated with the linear model ranged from 0.01 to 0.07 for Cohort 1 and from 0.01 to 0.05 for Cohort 2. Despite a low heritability, the distribution of the sire breeding values showed large and exploitable variation among sires. Higher breeding values for hoof lesion resistance corresponded to sires with a higher prevalence of healthy daughters. The rank correlations between estimated breeding values ranged from 0.96 to 0.99 when predicted using either one of the 2 cohorts and from 0.94 to 0.99 when predicted using either a threshold or a linear model.  相似文献   

18.
A Wiener process is a Brownian-motion process initiated in a certain state in a state space, and the first passage time is defined as the time of the process to reach a predefined absorbing state where the process stops. Time from 31 d prepartum to first treatment of clinical mastitis (CM) was modeled as first passage times of such Wiener processes. Two processes were used to allow for several risk factors, and for each process, initiation was at some arbitrary time point, in a certain health state with drift toward or away from absorption (disease). The drift parameter of each process was expressed as linear functions of covariates (year of calving and sire). First passage time was defined as the time from process initiation until the first health status process reached zero (absorption). The model was fitted to records for 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian cattle sires using a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Genetic evaluation of sires was carried out by calculating the posterior probability of no CM (the value of the survival function) by d 331, i.e., 300 d after first calving. Alternatively, sire evaluation was based on the integrated area under the survival curve. These measures were highly correlated (0.999), which indicates a small degree of crossings of the sire-dependent survival curves. Hence, sire-specific hazards were close to proportional, resulting in a higher rank-correlation to sire evaluations from a survival model with proportional hazards than to the results from a multivariate threshold model.  相似文献   

19.
The objectives of this study were to examine genetic associations between clinical mastitis and somatic cell score (SCS) in early first-lactation cows, to estimate genetic correlations between SCS of cows with and without clinical mastitis, and to compare genetic evaluations of sires based on SCS or clinical mastitis. Clinical mastitis records from 15 d before to 30 d after calving and first test-day SCS records (from 6 to 30 d after calving) from 499,878 first-lactation daughters of 2,043 sires were analyzed. Results from a bivariate linear sire model analysis of SCS in cows with and without clinical mastitis suggest that SCS is a heterogeneous trait. Heritability of SCS was 0.03 for mastitic cows and 0.08 for healthy cows, and the genetic correlation between the 2 traits was 0.78. The difference in rank between sire evaluations based on SCS of cows with and without clinical mastitis varied from −994 to 1,125, with mean 0. A bivariate analysis with a threshold-liability model for clinical mastitis and a linear Gaussian model for SCS indicated that heritability of liability to clinical mastitis is at least as large as that of SCS in early lactation. The mean (standard deviation) of the posterior distribution of heritability was 0.085 (0.006) for liability to clinical mastitis and 0.070 (0.003) for SCS. The posterior mean (standard deviation) of the genetic correlation between liability to clinical mastitis and SCS was 0.62 (0.03). A comparison of sire evaluations showed that genetic evaluation based on SCS was not able to identify the best sires for liability to clinical mastitis. The association between sire posterior means for liability to clinical mastitis and sire predicted transmitting ability for SCS was far from perfect.  相似文献   

20.
The objective of this study was to examine associations between susceptibility to clinical mastitis and protein yield in first-lactation Norwegian Dairy Cattle (NRF) cows. Records from 372,227 first-lactation daughters of 2411 NRF sires were analyzed bivariately, using a threshold-liability model for clinical mastitis and a linear Gaussian model for 305-d protein yield. The mean (SD) of the posterior distribution of heritability was 0.08 (0.004) for susceptibility to clinical mastitis and 0.19 (0.007) for 305-d protein yield. The posterior mean (SD) of the genetic correlation between susceptibility to clinical mastitis and 305-d protein yield was 0.43 (0.03). Posterior means of the correlations between herd-5-yr effects, and between model residuals were 0.19 and -0.008, respectively. Corresponding estimates of genetic, herd-5-yr, and residual correlations from a bivariate linear model analysis were 0.42, 0.18, and -0.008, respectively. An antagonistic genetic relationship between clinical mastitis and protein yield was corroborated.  相似文献   

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